Pretty psyched about my draft

[arghawkfan]

Finished up my ten team draft and I felt it went pretty well. Kearly gave me the statistical analysis to favor Forte at 4th overall


1.4 Matt Forte, Chi
Kearly gave me the statistical analysis to favor Forte at 4th overall over Lacy and I feel he is a safe 1st round pick in Trestman's offense.

2.7 Julio Jones, Atl
Best WR on the board, I wondered if Aaron Rodgers was a better value, but he has the same bye week as Forte and I was targeting Jordy Nelson round 3

3.4 Alfred Morris, Was
Picked Morris over Stacy, Ellington, Bush and Gerhart...i questions the change of coordinator in Washington, but Wash plays Dal twice and the giants twice, and have a much more favorable schedule than Stacy or Ellington

4.7 Vincent Jackson, TB

Solid Value who should see plenty of targets, this pick was a toss up between Jackson and Keenan Allen


5.4 Frank Gore, SF
Chose Gore for consistency as my flex rb, but i missed out on almost all my favorite mid receivers in the draft like Michael Floyd, C. Patterson, Percy Harvin and Torrey Smith...unsure if this was the right choice

6.7 T.Y. Hilton, Ind
Only mid receiver left on the board, huge dropoff after since I do not like Mike Wallace or Colston, Kendall Wright or Maclin

7.4 Joique Bell, Det
Great 4th rb in a stacked offense

8.7 Matt Ryan, Atl
OL is in trouble, but Cutler was off the board and I did not want to gamble on RG3 as my QB1

9.4 Greg Olsen, Car
Should be Cam's #1 rz target, safe high floor player

10.7 Jordan Reed, Was
To offset against Olsen, I wanted a high upside move TE like Reed, his numbers over 16 games last yr were elite

11.4 Tony Romo, Dal
Will be playing from behind very often, I had the choice between Romo and Rivers



12.7 Terrance Williams, Dal
Solid WR4 with a #2 role in a high volume passing offense

13.4 Matt Prater, Den

A little early for a kicker, but i Value 8 games a yr in mile high for bonus 50 yd fg's

14.7 Jonathan Stewart, Car
I think J. Stew is a great flyer in the 14th round, if he could ever stay healthy

15.4 New England Patriots, NE

Best DEF on the board

Your comments appreciated.

 

[HAWKAMANIA]

I think it's a solid team as long as it stays healthy. I think you did a good job on grabbing RBs early, especially when you consider what may happen to Morris with Gruden. Julio's a concern for me and I think he's being a little over-drafted, coming off the injury and the Falcons O-line is in shambles, but that's just my opinion. I love the Gore pick btw, he's a great pick for the flex. I'm not crazy about Matt Ryan for the same reason I'm not crazy about Julio, but I also worry about their lack of a run game to keep defenses honest, SJax doesn't scare anyone and they know the Falcons will have to pass. Luckily you have Romo who will probably end up being your weekly starter. Greg Olsen is a great pick, he'll see a lot of targets and he already has the rapport with Cam. I'm not as high on Jordan Reed as most are. He is talented but Gruden likes his TEs to do a lot of blocking for those short swing routes, which is why Jermaine Gresham was never a solid fantasy TE. Joique is one of my favorite players to target and JStew has looked pretty good in preseason action. New England DEF is a steal in the last round imo, and hopefully Wilfork is healthy enough to make an impact again. They also have a super-cushy schedule. And I think you made the right decision by going with VJax, it doesn't matter who his QB is or how well that QB is playing, VJax always produces.

All in all, I'd give you a B-. It has potential and should be deep enough to make a run at the playoffs.

 

[kearly]

Best draft I've seen here so far.

Forte I love at #4. Jones is high risk but if he stays healthy he's a steal. Morris I like as a low risk back at a good value. Vincent Jackson is a sleeper who will probably have a much improved season with McCown. Frank Gore, again, a low risk RB. Love it.

I liked that you snuck up a bit to get Prater. Good move. Patriots D is an okay defense, though I looked into it yesterday and their 2013 production was surprisingly not that great. The two 'bargain' defenses I'll be hoping to get are Carolina and Cincy in maybe the 12th round. I also think KC could stay relevant for fantasy defense this year if the new rules stay in effect, meaning that sack heavy teams will rise a bit more than before.

Other than Stewart with a meaningless super late round flier, your RB group is amazingly safe and also very good. Well done.

Your WR group is risky and thin, but I like how you start off with Jones and Jackson. Not a big fan of Hilton, he's big play talented but not fantasy football talented, I see him as a poor man's Mike Wallace. Williams is a good late round WR but I would have liked it more if your first 3 WR felt safer. For all the risky picks at WR I think going for a 5 man WR group is a must, but you only have four. Is it a flex league? If so this draft looks better.

I didn't like that you went two QBs and two TEs. I don't think Reed's upside is significantly higher than Olsen's and Olsen is super safe. If there is a TE you could go 1 deep on in the middle rounds and feel good about it, it's Olsen.

The Falcons were 5th in passing offense last year but Matt Ryan was only 15th in fantasy value. Waiver wire level. He get's his receivers back but loses his LT. Everyone is acting like he'll bounce back to 2012 but IMO that's a bit unlikely, and even in 2012 he ranked only 7th. I think he finishes this year maybe 10th, which to me makes him a fringe starter.

Romo I would like but I've read so much bad press about his back. He misses a lot of games too. I think you will probably have replacement level production at QB this year and use two spots to do it. Then again, any team with an injury risk like Romo, RG3, or Culter should have two QBs.

Overall, A-. I wanted to give you a higher grade though because I liked how you targeted safe RBs like crazy, I just wish you had targeted safe WRs too. In terms of identifying talent though I think you did a great job, Hilton was the only player you drafted that I think is over-rated in fantasy.

 

[ManBunts]

I like it except for the back to back TE's. Gore is steady, but the Niners know he's old. If Hyde is there on waivers, you might want to grab him as as handcuff

 

[kearly]

Good advice on Hyde, especially if Gore is starting for the OP in a flex league.