Pick 29, 1st Round - LJ Collier, DE, Texas Christian

[Sgt. Largent]

People keep bringing up Penny as an example of a bad pick..........but that's hindsight dishonesty.

At the time of the draft last year Carson was coming off a major leg injury, and we had just hired Schotty to come in and revamp the entire offensive scheme into what Pete wanted, which was what we saw last year, nasty ball control run heavy offense.

THAT'S why we drafted Penny, at the time of the draft we had no #1 RB that was healthy and able to carry the load. So I can't fault the Penny pick. If that's your scheme and philosophy, you have to get your RB, and Penny fit what we were trying to do well.

Just so happened Carson got healthy and balled out during camp and took the #1 RB job. But to continue to harp on the Penny pick is being completely hindsight dishonest with the discussion.

Penny didn't rock as we expected, but Penny also didn't embarrass. I felt like it's mental, he allowed himself to gain lots of weight, and he didn't have the punish whoever try to stop me mentality when going straight up the middle of defense. Hoping that he will report to camp in top shape and learn from Carson.

He's a rookie. Very few rookies come into camp and blow you away, it just doesn't happen that often.

So I do expect Penny to come into camp hungry, fit and ready to seriously challenge Carson for equal time carrying the ball.

Btw, we should ALL want this, because Carson's going to be barking for a new contract next year, especially if he stays healthy and balls out again like last year. So we all should want Penny to challenge and get closer to taking over the #1 RB spot.

Love Carson, but I also don't want to have to pay him 15M+ a year either.

 

[Seanhawk]

After McDowell, I'd highly doubt that Sweat was on their board. Just can't risk wasting another high pick on a medical.
Listening to Schneider though, it's a certainty that someone between 21-28 was their target. Someone went that they didn't see and it pissed them off. Tillery perhaps? Maybe even Savage at 21? I guess it could have been Sweat.

It couldn't have been Savage, right? I expect part of those trade talks with the Packers include who are they taking. And if they lie about it, that would likely end all future dealing with that team.

 

[Fade]

Lots of Seahawks Twitter is pissed, so this might be a good pick.

Has double digit sacks to replace in his rookie year, though, unless we sign a vet.

Frank Clark played Leo, Collier plays 5-Tech. He is the new Quinton Jefferson.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Of course there are different structures to 1st vs. 2nd round contracts, but I prefer to look at # of the pick, rather than round (which by-and-large is just a construct for pick-process, not a definition of player quality or success predictor). We have often taken lower 1st round picks because of trading down, and some higher 2nd round picks, so they are fairly close in value. Overstating the round picked can make seem like round is the problem.

Second, the sample size is quite small here. If we had 50 players in 1st and 2nd round to compare, we might have better data. At this point, we have a weak trend, at most, it seems to me. Our onboard statisticians can perhaps clarify or correct this assessment.

If players like Irvin get paid more by other teams than we're willing to shell out for 2nd contracts, that means they played well for us. I would call that a successful pick.

I expect Collier to be a solid contributor, and expect him to get a 2nd contract here because of the position's importance to today's league.

So AdHawk, quite right that the first rounders are a small sample size, but would you agree that over the past 8 years our ceiling for first round head-scratcher picks has been "solid starter?" Again, I exclude Okung/Earl because those picks were not thought of as reaches.

And would you agree that our ceiling for 2nd round picks Clark/Reed/Britt has been pro-bowl to near-elite in Clark? For that matter, our ceiling in lower rounds down to UDFA (Baldwin) has been higher than our ceiling for first rounders.

I think maybe they themselves feel that they struggle to get first round value and that's why they get out of the round so often. Last year and this year they stayed in because of dire need at RB and DL respectively, and so the team circumstances were why they didn't trade out and try to find their RB or DL later. I'm not certain sacrificing draft value in the cap era is a winning strategy, but it's also true that the Penny and Collier may prove to be impact players.

In particular, if Penny doesn't end up a solid RB1 who can come in and completely replace Carson's output in a game if need be, we lit that pick on fire. With Collier, all teams struggle to identify the magic bean on the DL and it was pick 29, so if he's a 5-10 sack guy to throw in with Reed adding 10 sacks and FA, I won't moan.

The "head-scratchers" are only that for some people. RW was certainly a head-scratcher in the 3rd, but because it was only a 3rd, nobody got up in arms about it, and now it looks like a huge bargain. The expectation of what a 1st round player MUST be is where is the problem lies. There are no sure things, even--maybe especially--in the first round because of the dramatically high expectations. The difference between a player graded at top 10 in the draft and 26th in the draft may not be that much in some years at some positions, or may be immensely so other years.

In answer to your first question, the ceiling may be higher than we ever get to see on the field, because of coaching, scheme, or many other factors. If by ceiling you mean their top level of actual play on the field, then we'll need to wait this out. We haven't seen the full body of work of these draft-picks.

Again, I suggested a "weak tendency," and I agree that it's there. But that means nothing related to the Collier pick. He may end up being Bennett 2.0, which would be worth more than we spent at the spot in the draft. Penny has show flashes and his ceiling could be very high still.

The specific needs of a team also dictates the player chosen; only the team's leadership knows what they're looking for. You can't just "plug and play." This isn't Madden.

You cannot exclude the ET/Okung draft and say that PC only drafts reaches in the first round. Especially when the sample size is already small. You pick players to be full-time starters, and only a few in the league really become difference-makers.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Lots of Seahawks Twitter is pissed, so this might be a good pick.

Has double digit sacks to replace in his rookie year, though, unless we sign a vet.

Frank Clark played Leo, Collier plays 5-Tech. He is the new Quinton Jefferson.

Other than Jefferson being a 3 technique, being a poor bull rusher, having small hands, lacks power and smaller legs, all pretty much opposite of Collier.................you nailed it.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/263 ... wks-rookie

 

[hawk45]

Outside of our very first draft - where both Thomas and Okung were not derided as reaches like later years - we are still waiting for a first round player to be worth a second contract.

It's worth noting that you are comparing a year in which we had two top picks with subsequent years in which we were either picking at the end of the round or not at all. Mock boards diverge further from the actual team boards as the draft proceeds.

Comparing rounds one and two it's quite obvious to me why accusations of reaching stick and puzzling why anyone would pretend it's just casual fans bespelled by the Kiper big board who are complaining.

You can call them bad picks if you want, but I'm aware that at least Irvin, Carpenter and Penny were later indicated to have been on other team's boards around where we had them. Whether you believe that or not is besides the point, which is that team boards are very closely held private information. I'm sure the Hawks get other team boards wrong too, but second guessing where teams have players on their boards based on public boards is a silly exercise.

Completely fair to point out we picked high with Okung and Thomas. Bruce Irvin was not quite as high, but also not an end-of-rounder. If the FO is able to get value out of the higher can't-miss slots, and out of more volume in 2nd round and later slots, I'd be happy with them either trading up or down. In the 15-32 slots they haven't managed to draft anyone better than solid starter, whereas they have managed to pluck impact players everywhere else all the way down to UDFA.

If Irvin, Carpenter, and Penny ceiling is solid starter, then it does not matter if other teams would have taken them. Solid starter isn't irreplaceable. Now, I do acknowledge that where you are drafting and your current needs will impact that calculation, but if that's the rationale then we should be transparent about the fact that they are sacrificing draft value for situational needs regularly there.

This comes off like I'm looking for a reason to knock Pete and John, and I'm not. Overall I have faith in their drafting, although it dropped off precipitously for a few years. The part I want to challenge specifically is the idea that frustration with their first round efforts can be waved off as fans being suckered by draft boards.

If they can pluck elite, pro-bowl players in the second and later rounds, an expectation that they pull this feat off once in the last half of the first round is eminently reasonable.

 

[hawk45]

People keep bringing up Penny as an example of a bad pick..........but that's hindsight dishonesty.

At the time of the draft last year Carson was coming off a major leg injury, and we had just hired Schotty to come in and revamp the entire offensive scheme into what Pete wanted, which was what we saw last year, nasty ball control run heavy offense.

THAT'S why we drafted Penny, at the time of the draft we had no #1 RB that was healthy and able to carry the load. So I can't fault the Penny pick. If that's your scheme and philosophy, you have to get your RB, and Penny fit what we were trying to do well.

Just so happened Carson got healthy and balled out during camp and took the #1 RB job. But to continue to harp on the Penny pick is being completely hindsight dishonest with the discussion.

Agreed about all the circumstances, and that it should be factored in. At the time I did not mind the pick for the reasons you gave.

With Penny where I challenge is your statement that he fit in with what we're trying to do. He may. A healthy Penny will and should have the chance to prove himself, the bell cow in the Seahawks scheme needs to be able to run between the tackles and pick up positive, tough yardage. Lynch, Carson, Davis. Penny seems to be a great complementary back to threaten to break a big one, but we drafted him to be the bell cow. You don't draft your third down gimmick back in the first.

We'll see. I struggle to understand why a hand injury last year would cause him to be so easily tackled between the hashes last year, and so I fear boom or bust is what he is. Here's hoping. Last year I saw a guy who has nothing if the defense keeps contain and didn't impress as a receiving option either in the middle of the field. I regularly said to myself Carson or Davis catching the ball at the LOS get an extra 3 yards minimum over what Penny got.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

People keep bringing up Penny as an example of a bad pick..........but that's hindsight dishonesty.

At the time of the draft last year Carson was coming off a major leg injury, and we had just hired Schotty to come in and revamp the entire offensive scheme into what Pete wanted, which was what we saw last year, nasty ball control run heavy offense.

THAT'S why we drafted Penny, at the time of the draft we had no #1 RB that was healthy and able to carry the load. So I can't fault the Penny pick. If that's your scheme and philosophy, you have to get your RB, and Penny fit what we were trying to do well.

Just so happened Carson got healthy and balled out during camp and took the #1 RB job. But to continue to harp on the Penny pick is being completely hindsight dishonest with the discussion.

Agreed about all the circumstances, and that it should be factored in. At the time I did not mind the pick for the reasons you gave.

With Penny where I challenge is your statement that he fit in with what we're trying to do. He may. A healthy Penny will and should have the chance to prove himself, the bell cow in the Seahawks scheme needs to be able to run between the tackles and pick up positive, tough yardage. Lynch, Carson, Davis. Penny seems to be a great complementary back to threaten to break a big one, but we drafted him to be the bell cow. You don't draft your third down gimmick back in the first.

We'll see. I struggle to understand why a hand injury last year would cause him to be so easily tackled between the hashes last year, and so I fear boom or bust is what he is. Here's hoping. Last year I saw a guy who has nothing if the defense keeps contain and didn't impress as a receiving option either in the middle of the field. I regularly said to myself Carson or Davis catching the ball at the LOS get an extra 3 yards minimum over what Penny got.

Huh? 3rd down gimmick back?

Every scout had Penny as everything we wanted in a back fitting our scheme. Punishing big downhill runner with surprising speed and quickness to the hole, and good hands.

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018rpenny.php

 

[Jville]

Appreciate anyone demonstrating respect for the subject and the discipline to stay on topic :2thumbs:

The links that follow are relevant transcripts for day 1 of the draft.

DE L.J. Collier, 4-25-19 >>> [urltargetblank]https://www.seahawksmedia.com/transcripts/collier-l-j-4-25-19/[/urltargetblank]

Schneider and Carroll, Draft Day 1: 4-25-19 >>> [urltargetblank]https://www.seahawksmedia.com/transcripts/schneider-and-carroll-draft-day-1-4-25-19/[/urltargetblank]

 

[AgentDib]

The part I want to challenge specifically is the idea that frustration with their first round efforts can be waved off as fans being suckered by draft boards. If they can pluck elite, pro-bowl players in the second and later rounds, an expectation that they pull this feat off once in the last half of the first round is eminently reasonable.

I agree we can and should judge them on results, whether that is from previous drafts or this draft down the road. It's also fun as a fan to judge the picks without having all the information. What role do we see for them on the team, how well will they fulfill it, are there other factors we should care about, etc.

The part that doesn't make sense is talking about where a player "should" go. None of us actually believe that public boards are better than the privately held team boards, but that's the implicit assumption made when people post about pick value in reference to those public boards.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/demarcus-lawrence?id=2543490

4.8 forty at 251 combine weight. Less than 6’3. Only 1 season as a D1 starter. Cowboys gave up #78 to move up to #34 from #47.

 

[Passepartout]

Good luck to him. Welcome aboard. Maybe a new legion of doom

 

[chris98251]

I say Red Bryant because he is bull strong not as big, he will add weight I am betting though but he has a hell of a anchor point on the edge so he will not be moved and can also crash and decimate a blocking wedge.

Bonus is he can play inside outside like Bennett, doesn't have the first step that Bennett has or maybe it has yet to be developed, he is pretty Green as a player still.

 

[brimsalabim]

This guy had him mocked to us in the middle of the third.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...-nfl-mock-draft-qb-wr-for-patriots-in-round-3

 

[Jazzhawk]

Is it just me or are there a ton of double posts on this thread?

Anyway, from what could have been at #21 & #29, to this. Seems like they became enamored with quantity over impact. Here's to hoping I'm wrong (again).

OK, ok, after soaking on this overnight, and doing my homework on Collier, and hearing that they look at Collier as a replacement of Bennett not of Clark, I'm feeling much better about him and the pick overall. Not that it means anything to anyone but me, but there you go.

 

[olyfan63]

I'm not super excited although I do think he will be solid. That video of him and his family celebrating I could listen to all day though, what a cool moment.

That was AWESOME to see, the energy in that room. I'm translating it as it wasn't just that he got picked, it was that he was going to the SEAHAWKS and LJ had talked to his family and friends about who he hoped picked him and everyone knew he was going to a place he wanted to to to and was excited for him. This is a guy with a support system, with a lot of reasons.

To me, it felt like the anti-McDowell, here is a guy who will be smart and come in focused on football and work his ass off and buy in and do his job and be part of a great D.

How about this for a comp: Forget Clark, even forget Bennett. How about *Jacob Green* as a comp?
I know the other old-timer Seahawk fans know and love Jacob Green. He wasn't the fastest, but he was fast enough to be our leading sack guy, and he was always giving 110% and pretty sure Green made All-Pro a couple seasons with us.

 

[toffee]

I say Red Bryant because he is bull strong not as big, he will add weight I am betting though but he has a hell of a anchor point on the edge so he will not be moved and can also crash and decimate a blocking wedge.

Bonus is he can play inside outside like Bennett, doesn't have the first step that Bennett has or maybe it has yet to be developed, he is pretty Green as a player still.

Just curious, how did you conclude that Collier didn't have Bennett's first step?

 

[chris98251]

I say Red Bryant because he is bull strong not as big, he will add weight I am betting though but he has a hell of a anchor point on the edge so he will not be moved and can also crash and decimate a blocking wedge.

Bonus is he can play inside outside like Bennett, doesn't have the first step that Bennett has or maybe it has yet to be developed, he is pretty Green as a player still.

Just curious, how did you conclude that Collier didn't have Bennett's first step?

All the scouts said he has a slow get off. Bennett however had a very explosive one.

 

[KiwiHawk]

I say Red Bryant because he is bull strong not as big, he will add weight I am betting though but he has a hell of a anchor point on the edge so he will not be moved and can also crash and decimate a blocking wedge.

Bonus is he can play inside outside like Bennett, doesn't have the first step that Bennett has or maybe it has yet to be developed, he is pretty Green as a player still.

Just curious, how did you conclude that Collier didn't have Bennett's first step?

All the scouts said he has a slow get off. Bennett however had a very explosive one.

Not hard to have an explosive first step if you step before the snap.

 

[ivotuk]

Bennett's advantage was film study. He put the hours in before the game. But sometimes he guessed wrong.he

The more i learn about LJ, the more i Love this guy.