PFF rates Russell Wilson ahead of Andrew Luck

[Hawkpower]

Not that this will change your mind, but I thought this was worth looking into from a different angle: How many teams did each QB face in 2014 with a top-10 DVOA in pass defense?

Luck: 5
RW: 4

Your correct because if you look at the actual rankings Luck did not face 5. Also link please?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Luck: Broncos, Ravens, Browns, Texans 2x
Wilson: Broncos, Panthers, SF 2x[/quote]

Ummm the NFC West all had top 10 defenses....so you forgot Arizona and St. Louis, and don't forget Philadelphia for Wilson.

Actually I think I see what you did, you used the Weighted DVOA, and if you go by that then you can only use it for teams that plays the defense in the 2nd half of the season.

So by that, you can't count the 8th game

Browns and Texans for Luck

SF x2 Philadelphia, and St. Louis for Wilson[/quote]


no he made a valid point and my point still stands you pointed out 1 year go back all 3 years and Wilson far and away plays harder defenses, and also does not change all the other things I brought up.




Really? Cmon man, thats nitpicking.

The point of the original post is still valid. The fallacy that Luck plays middle school defenses all year while poor Russ plays against Greek Gods is misleading.[/quote][/quote]








Haha like I said, it won't matter. I rest my case.

By the way, I didn't "point out" anything. I wasn't the poster who posted the DVOA stats. I just happened to think it was amusing that the actual truth in regards to the schedule strength was so much different than the fallacy that some push to fit their agenda, that's all.

 

[theincrediblesok]

Both are great and both plays two different system I was going to work out the stats tomorrow but wanted to see what it would look like, both are great QBs and both are asked to do different things in their offense.

*Also noted that Wilson played more top 10 teams so his stats below might look skewed compared to Lucks.

Colts were ranked 13th by DVOA in defense, 11th in Weighted DVOA, so they weren't bad
Colts ranked 7th in Pass Protection 16th in Run Blocking
Colts ranked 13th in Passing DVOA 27th in Running DVOA

Seahawks were ranked 1st by DVOA in defense, 1st in Weighted DVOA, elite
Seahawks ranked 24th in Pass Protection 4th in Run Blocking*
Seahawks ranked 10th in Passing DVOA 1st in Running DVOA*
*Elite Running game due to Wilson and Lynch tandem

ANDREW LUCK

All the games played: Teams in TOP 10 and TOP 10 Weighted DVOA
Broncos
35/53 370 yards 2TD 2INT 1TD Rushing
Eagles
20/34 172 yards 3TD 1INT
Ravens
32/49 312 yards 1TD 2INT 1TD Rushing
Houston
25/44 370 yards 3TD 1INT
Browns
24/53 294 yards 2TD 2INT 1 TD Rushing
Houston
18/34 187 yards 2TD 2INT

TOP 10 (3 wins 2 lost)
Texans x 2, Broncos, Eagles, Ravens
130/214 (61%) 1411yards 11TD 8INT 2TD Rushing

Weighted DVOA TOP 10 (3 wins 2 lost)
Texans x2, Broncos, Eagles, Browns
122/218 (56%) 1393yards 12TD 8TD 2TD Rushing



RUSSELL WILSON

All the games played: Teams in TOP 10 and TOP 10 Weighted DVOA
Broncos
24/34 258 yards 2TD 1INT
Rams
23/36 313 yards 2TD 0INT 1TD Rushing
Panthers
20/32 199 yards 1TD 1INT
Cardinals
17/22 211 yards 1TD 0INT
49ers
15/22 236 yards 1TD 0INT
Eagles
22/37 263 yards 2TD 0INT 1TD Rushing
49ers
12/24 168 yards 1TD 1INT
Cardinals
20/31 339 yards 2TD 0INT 1TD Rushing
Rams
17/25 239 yards 0TD 1INT


TOP10 (7 wins 1 lost)
SF x 2, Rams x 2, Cardinals x 2, Broncos, Eagles
150/231 (65%) 2027yards 11TD 3INT 3TD Rushing

Weighted DVOA (6 wins 1 lost)
SF x 2, Rams x 2, Broncos, Panthers, Eagles
133/210 (63%) 1676yards 9TD 4 INT 2 TD Rushing

 

[RichNhansom]

Both are great and both plays two different system I was going to work out the stats tomorrow but wanted to see what it would look like, both are great QBs and both are asked to do different things in their offense.

*Also noted that Wilson played more top 10 teams so his stats below might look skewed compared to Lucks.

Colts were ranked 13th by DVOA in defense, 11th in Weighted DVOA, so they weren't bad
Colts ranked 7th in Pass Protection 16th in Run Blocking
Colts ranked 13th in Passing DVOA 27th in Running DVOA

Seahawks were ranked 1st by DVOA in defense, 1st in Weighted DVOA, elite
Seahawks ranked 24th in Pass Protection 4th in Run Blocking*
Seahawks ranked 10th in Passing DVOA 1st in Running DVOA*
*Elite Running game due to Wilson and Lynch tandem

ANDREW LUCK

All the games played: Teams in TOP 10 and TOP 10 Weighted DVOA
Broncos
35/53 370 yards 2TD 2INT 1TD Rushing
Eagles
20/34 172 yards 3TD 1INT
Ravens
32/49 312 yards 1TD 2INT 1TD Rushing
Houston
25/44 370 yards 3TD 1INT
Browns
24/53 294 yards 2TD 2INT 1 TD Rushing
Houston
18/34 187 yards 2TD 2INT

TOP 10 (3 wins 2 lost)
Texans x 2, Broncos, Eagles, Ravens
130/214 (61%) 1411yards 11TD 8INT 2TD Rushing

Weighted DVOA TOP 10 (3 wins 2 lost)
Texans x2, Broncos, Eagles, Browns
122/218 (56%) 1393yards 12TD 8TD 2TD Rushing



RUSSELL WILSON

All the games played: Teams in TOP 10 and TOP 10 Weighted DVOA
Broncos
24/34 258 yards 2TD 1INT
Rams
23/36 313 yards 2TD 0INT 1TD Rushing
Panthers
20/32 199 yards 1TD 1INT
Cardinals
17/22 211 yards 1TD 0INT
49ers
15/22 236 yards 1TD 0INT
Eagles
22/37 263 yards 2TD 0INT 1TD Rushing
49ers
12/24 168 yards 1TD 1INT
Cardinals
20/31 339 yards 2TD 0INT 1TD Rushing
Rams
17/25 239 yards 0TD 1INT


TOP10 (7 wins 1 lost)
SF x 2, Rams x 2, Cardinals x 2, Broncos, Eagles
150/231 (65%) 2027yards 11TD 3INT 3TD Rushing

Weighted DVOA (6 wins 1 lost)
SF x 2, Rams x 2, Broncos, Panthers, Eagles
133/210 (63%) 1676yards 9TD 4 INT 2 TD Rushing

Wow, I didn't know the difference was that stark. I wasn't aware the Colts defense was ranked so high either. 11th? That is pretty good.

It's kind of funny. If the media wasn't pushing so hard to get Luck into the HOF before the rest of the NFL realizes he might not even the best QB in his draft class, you might actually see and hear these kind of breakdowns from the media. PFF should have done this to back their claims. Pretty eye opening.

 

[Seafan]

None of those QBs would be successful with the Hawk OL except for Russ. So as far as Seattle is concerned there is only one choice for QB.

PFF should post a list of how successful the QB would be behind Seattle's OL. Russ of course would be #1.

 

[Hawkpower]

None of those QBs would be successful with the Hawk OL except for Russ. So as far as Seattle is concerned there is only one choice for QB.

PFF should post a list of how successful the QB would be behind Seattle's OL. Russ of course would be #1.

Unless of course you consider the number of QB's like Rivers who routinely get the ball out when they hit their back foot of a 3 step drop.

 

[theincrediblesok]

None of those QBs would be successful with the Hawk OL except for Russ. So as far as Seattle is concerned there is only one choice for QB.

PFF should post a list of how successful the QB would be behind Seattle's OL. Russ of course would be #1.

Unless of course you consider the number of QB's like Rivers who routinely get the ball out when they hit their back foot of a 3 step drop.

Rivers didn't start the short quick passing game until 2013, that's when he went 66% in 2014 and 70% in 2013, our system is based on explosive plays, it looks like we were trying that in the KC game, but couldn't get it together this game. The reason for River's 70% accuracy is the short quick passing game was implemented to lessen the pressure for Rivers. I think he had 35 INT in two years before 2013, so they needed to find a way to help him.

For a veteran with so many years why did it take him so long to get to the short quick passing game? I see the same thing will happen with Wilson, but the offensive would have to change and that won't be until Lynch retires.

**Correction he started it in 2013 with Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator, then got a new coordinator last year.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nf ... t/3478777/

 

[Anthony!]

None of those QBs would be successful with the Hawk OL except for Russ. So as far as Seattle is concerned there is only one choice for QB.

PFF should post a list of how successful the QB would be behind Seattle's OL. Russ of course would be #1.

Unless of course you consider the number of QB's like Rivers who routinely get the ball out when they hit their back foot of a 3 step drop.

First we have never been a quick hitting team, we have relied on explosive plays which take time. So Rivers would get killed here. Second we have mixed in a little of that, heck I even saw an actual safety valve for Wilson on one play Lynch, right over the middle. I was shocked. Like I said they are trying some new things that is why I am not to worried yet. Besides trying new things they are only using about 40% of the offense. If we continue our explosive play offense then Rivers and his ilk would get killed. If we sprinkle in some quick hits, then maybe but it would still come down to a lot of pressure as you saw yesterday and petty much the only starting QB who could survive and thrive in that is Wilson.

 

[StoneCold]

There are really only 2 5 tool QBs-Wilson and Rodgers. What separates them form the others is how they scramble when they have to. They scramble looking to pass, most QBS do not. Even Luck as good as he is and he is doe snot really scramble a lot. Not to say on occasion he does not, but it is rare.

When you scramble and doe snot comes out your nose it's a clear sign of a lack of conditioning.

 

[Anthony!]

There are really only 2 5 tool QBs-Wilson and Rodgers. What separates them form the others is how they scramble when they have to. They scramble looking to pass, most QBS do not. Even Luck as good as he is and he is doe snot really scramble a lot. Not to say on occasion he does not, but it is rare.

When you scramble and doe snot comes out your nose it's a clear sign of a lack of conditioning.

way to ignore the post and troll the thread.

 

[HansGruber]

Romo, Ryan and Rivers above Wilson? Not buying that.

I think a strong case can be made for at least two of those guys above Russ.

Maybe if you're drafting a fantasy QB and you don't care about actual wins. Not in the real world, though.

 

[HansGruber]

None of those QBs would be successful with the Hawk OL except for Russ. So as far as Seattle is concerned there is only one choice for QB.

PFF should post a list of how successful the QB would be behind Seattle's OL. Russ of course would be #1.

Unless of course you consider the number of QB's like Rivers who routinely get the ball out when they hit their back foot of a 3 step drop.

Rivers is hot garbage under pressure. I'm not sure you're trying to argue otherwise, but uh.... no. Rivers under pressure looks like Kaepernick when you take away his first read. But without the ability to run. Just awful.

The Seahawk equivalent would be like saying Bevell is a great playcaller in the Red Zone.

 

[JimmyG]

I'm not a big fan of PFF. They use very selective numbers that create a twisted view. Do you think anyone in the league would want Matt Ryan over Wilson or Luck? How many would choose Rivers over Brady or Manning? Very few. That is because they are simply better and have a tendency of stepping up when their teams need them.

Their grades can be very puzzling to say the least.

Do you remember last year when we played the Redskins on MNF? DeSean Jackson had 5 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. His final grade for the game? NEGATIVE 0.9. They say this is because "two drops hurt his score". I'm sorry, but if your grading system winds up with that final score on a performance like Jackson had, there's something seriously wrong.

I get the premise. Every player on every play is graded. It makes sense. I don't think their grades are granular enough though. They only grade in 0.5 point increments (-2.0 to +2.0), which I think leads to major weighting issues. (i.e. a 70-yard TD catch should not be offset by a couple of drops)

PFF is a nice resource, a good rough barometer. Some take it way too seriously though.

 

[theincrediblesok]

Speaking of PFF being wrong, anyone remember "The asterick", Wilson was that, he wasn't given a fair deal from the PFF writer who had a system that graded out potential starters by the amount of games they played and their stats. Wilson had a far better grade than both RG3 and Luck, but they put an asterick because of Wilson's height, the system that they implemented showed that Wilson was a potential starter yet they dismiss their own research because you know he was too short.

For a nice article on Wilson in his college days, long read but it shows he can make every NFL throws.

http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEViYQ ... NgWVQWmUs-