Personal Draft grades

[RiverDog]

NFL's highest paid wide receivers (average salary per year):​

• 1. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: $30 million
• 2. Raiders WR Davante Adams: $28 million
• 3. Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins: $27.3 million
• 4. Rams WR Cooper Kupp: $26.7 million
• 5. Eagles WR A.J. Brown: $25 million
• 6. Bills WR Stefon Diggs: $24 million
• 7. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin: $23.2 million
• 8. Panthers WR D.J. Moore: $20.6 million
• 9. Chargers WR Keenan Allen: $20.03 million
• 10. Chargers WR Mike Williams: $20 million
• 10. Browns WR Amari Cooper: $20 million
• 10. Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin: $20 million

Those are great wide receivers. My "dime a dozen" comment was qualified by saying "good but not great".

 

[AgentDib]

Good but not great wide receivers, like our SB WR's Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, are a dime a dozen and teams do just fine with those types of receivers. And what the hell happened to Dee Eskridge? Wasn't he supposed to be our 3rd receiver? We're spending one helluva lot of capital, both in terms of salary and draft picks, on a non essential position.

We continued to ignore our center position, a spot that has been a revolving door ever since we traded Max Unger without a plan in place to replace him.

In my view your take on center/WR value is backwards. Consider that the 9th highest center contract (Avg/year) right now is Bradley Bozeman at $6m/year. The 9th highest WR contract is McLaurin at $23m/year. WR is one of the highest paid positions and Center is one of the lowest paid positions, and that reflects how the NFL feels about their importance in 2023.

Creed Humphrey had a valuation last season of just $3.4m. JSN could be in the $10m-$15m range this season due to the difference in positional value if he simply plays up to expected values.

The other point about wide receivers, and one of the reasons why I rank them below other positions, is that they aren't very often significant contributors in the running game except as decoys, so that takes them out of the equation in roughly 45% of all offensive plays.

Myles Gaskins had 3.5 Y/A for the Dolphins in 2021. Then Raheem Mostert took over the job in 2022 as a $2m 31 year old journeyman and had a very strong 4.9 Y/A to the surprise of everybody.

How did the Dolphins dramatically fix their running game last off-season? They went all in on the passing game with the trade for Tyreek Hill. With two lethal downfield weapons in Waddle and Hill, the Dolphins opponents needed to play soft or risk getting torched. That let the Dolphins get a lot of easy rushing yards against light boxes.

JSN has the ability to feast over the middle/intermediate field in the 10-25 yard range, directly behind the opposing linebackers. When he is on the field they are going to be hesitant to crash down to the LOS, because one or two false steps down in the event of play action will allow JSN to completely separate. As a result, when we do hand it off to Walker he's going to have more space to operate in the B/C gaps, while Charbonnet should find the A/B gaps less clogged, and McIntosh should have more space around him when catching screens.

It's similar to my argument about running backs being 2 down players. You don't get as much bang for the buck.

As a last point, the offense can still get a ton of value from situational players because they decide what play they are calling, when to substitute, and where the ball is going. A RB who would always get exactly two yards would be an incredibly valuable offensive player, even if he only got 10 carries for 20 yards per game.

It's harder on defense because you don't dictate where the ball is going and substitutions depend on the offense. Versatility has a premium as a result, because a limited player can turn into an Achilles heel if the offense targets them in a poor situation. If Darrell Taylor can't set the edge vs. the run then he becomes a liability even on supposed passing downs, as the opposing offense can simply decide to run at him instead.

 

[RiverDog]

Are we so sure that was ever the goal? I mean, it makes sense to most fans, but who knows what PC/JS are thinking >50% of the time?

If it wasn't, it should have been.

But to answer your question, yes, I think it was the goal simply because we signed Geno to a relatively short 3 year contract loaded with incentives and a potential out in 2024. I think that we were hoping that either Stroud or Richardson would fall to us.

 

[Jville]

Are we so sure that was ever the goal? I mean, it makes sense to most fans, but who knows what PC/JS are thinking >50% of the time?

Speaking of draft goals ......... this draft and free agency did provide the personnel to support improvement of both the third down offense and third down defense ....... a stated goal of John and Pete.

The additional goal of fielding better blocking and tackling personnel seems to have also been addressed.

Great Draft ........ These are the best of times!

 

[pmedic920]

@Ray74

Not trying to call you out, or put you on blast.

I’m curious as to why you grade the draft a “F”?

Would you be willing to elaborate?

 

[RiverDog]

In my view your take on center/WR value is backwards. Consider that the 9th highest center contract (Avg/year) right now is Bradley Bozeman at $6m/year. The 9th highest WR contract is McLaurin at $23m/year. WR is one of the highest paid positions and Center is one of the lowest paid positions, and that reflects how the NFL feels about their importance in 2023.

Creed Humphrey had a valuation last season of just $3.4m. JSN could be in the $10m-$15m range this season due to the difference in positional value if he simply plays up to expected values.


Myles Gaskins had 3.5 Y/A for the Dolphins in 2021. Then Raheem Mostert took over the job in 2022 as a $2m 31 year old journeyman and had a very strong 4.9 Y/A to the surprise of everybody.

How did the Dolphins dramatically fix their running game last off-season? They went all in on the passing game with the trade for Tyreek Hill. With two lethal downfield weapons in Waddle and Hill, the Dolphins opponents needed to play soft or risk getting torched. That let the Dolphins get a lot of easy rushing yards against light boxes.

JSN has the ability to feast over the middle/intermediate field in the 10-25 yard range, directly behind the opposing linebackers. When he is on the field they are going to be hesitant to crash down to the LOS, because one or two false steps down in the event of play action will allow JSN to completely separate. As a result, when we do hand it off to Walker he's going to have more space to operate in the B/C gaps, while Charbonnet should find the A/B gaps less clogged, and McIntosh should have more space around him when catching screens.

As a last point, the offense can still get a ton of value from situational players because they decide what play they are calling, when to substitute, and where the ball is going. A RB who would always get exactly two yards would be an incredibly valuable offensive player, even if he only got 10 carries for 20 yards per game.

It's harder on defense because you don't dictate where the ball is going and substitutions depend on the offense. Versatility has a premium as a result, because a limited player can turn into an Achilles heel if the offense targets them in a poor situation. If Darrell Taylor can't set the edge vs. the run then he becomes a liability even on supposed passing downs, as the opposing offense can simply decide to run at him instead.

Good reply. Very well thought out and I appreciate your insight.

However, I'm sticking to my guns. Relative to other positions, wide receiver and running back rank lower than QB, LT, DL, and CB perhaps a couple others.

 

[u0087966]

I gave it a B....I wasn't too thrilled about Charbonnet pick in the second round and the trade back with the Broncos....other tan that, I thought they did great.

I hope I'm wrong on Charbonnet and will eat my words but this is just my gut reaction.

 

[RiverDog]

Did anyone else notice how late we were at getting our #5 overall and #20 overall picks in? Were we trying to trade out of them?

 

[Jville]

Did anyone else notice how late we were at getting our #5 overall and #20 overall picks in? Were we trying to trade out of them?

Yep. They use all the clock on day 2 as well.

 

[Jerhawk]

Did anyone else notice how late we were at getting our #5 overall and #20 overall picks in? Were we trying to trade out of them?

Yeah I just imagined that they were exploring all their options and fielding/making a lot of phone calls

 

[MORGULON]

Solid thoughts.

I just heard one of the pundits say this (paraphrased)

Every player Seattle picked “loves football”, they’ve probably had the best 2 years of drafting as anyone.

In retrospect I think having players that actually “love football” is huge and easily adds a full letter to any grade based off of skill, measurables, or highlights alone.

IMHO the intangibles matter a lot.

Exactly. John Schneider said that the guys they picked all had attitude. One of the intangibles they look for.

Look out San Francisco. Your days are numbered.

 

[Jerhawk]

Exactly. John Schneider said that the guys they picked all had attitude. One of the intangibles they look for.

Look out San Francisco. Your days are numbered.

If Seattle can find a way to slow down that D line and stop Deebo/Mccaffrey, I think this division is ours

 

[AgentDib]

However, I'm sticking to my guns. Relative to other positions, wide receiver and running back rank lower than QB, LT, DL, and CB perhaps a couple others.

We can mostly agree on that list. QB is the only tier 1 for me, then I'd add RT and WR in the second tier with LT and CB. DL would split into elite pass rushers (very valuable), and others (replaceable). RB is also a low tier for me.

 

[JerHawk81]

You and @JerHawk81 both disagree with the Charbonnet pick.

I'm not too good at evaluating game film so please don't take my question as being rude or snarky. It's a genuine question:

What don't you guys like about Charbonnet?

I've only gone through a couple of his games, so take this with a gain of salt. But so far, I don't see much to love.

To me, every single good RB has a style. Some are quick, some fast, some strong, some technical, some excellent blockers, soft hands, routes, shifty, etc. etc. etc. They need to break tackles, break ankles, set up blockers to avoid tacklers, outrun tacklers, run over tacklers, or fall forward. I'm not sure that any of these approaches is better than any other, but every single one of these traits mean that you're getting more yards than you should.

With Charbonnett - I haven't been convinced that he can do any of these just yet. He seems like someone who will take what the play, blockers, and defenders give you - but not much more. And those guys are fine, but they are a dime-a-dozen, and don't warrant a second round pick to me.

With that said, a lot of smart evaluators who know a lot more than me disagree. They have him as a top 5 RB, with fair value in round 2. I just haven't seen that yet.

 

[MORGULON]

If Seattle can find a way to slow down that D line and stop Deebo/Mccaffrey, I think this division is ours

Yes. It looks like Seattle was thinking the same thing.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Why are we moaning about ILB? Are we pretending we didnt sign thee best MLB in the game already?

Bobby is a dude who meets ball carriers behind the LoS, at the LoS, or worst case 2-3 yards beyond.

Weve added some great talent and leaders, super stoked for next season!

People forget we added Devin Bush in free agency who can play ILB in several sets well and has. Bush, Bobby and Brooks will fill out nicely

 

[Jerhawk]

I've only gone through a couple of his games, so take this with a gain of salt. But so far, I don't see much to love.

To me, every single good RB has a style. Some are quick, some fast, some strong, some technical, some excellent blockers, soft hands, routes, shifty, etc. etc. etc. They need to break tackles, break ankles, set up blockers to avoid tacklers, outrun tacklers, run over tacklers, or fall forward. I'm not sure that any of these approaches is better than any other, but every single one of these traits mean that you're getting more yards than you should.

With Charbonnett - I haven't been convinced that he can do any of these just yet. He seems like someone who will take what the play, blockers, and defenders give you - but not much more. And those guys are fine, but they are a dime-a-dozen, and don't warrant a second round pick to me.

With that said, a lot of smart evaluators who know a lot more than me disagree. They have him as a top 5 RB, with fair value in round 2. I just haven't seen that yet.

I appreciate your well thought out response. Very well said.

When I was watching Charbonnet, it seemed like he always had gaping holes to gallop through as Chip Kelly's offense allowed big running lanes up the gut (at least in the highlight reels.)

I like that he was usually falling forward when tackled, and could break off a long run if needed. I'm just curious to see how he will do if defenders get into the backfield, which unfortunately has been a common sight for our interior O line for quite some time.

At 6'0", 214 (at the combine) he posted a 4.53 40, with 18 bench reps.

Zach Charbonnet Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

K9, on the other hand, ran a 4.39 40, with no bench reps posted.

Kenneth Walker III Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

Watching K9 last year, imo he was incredible once into the secondary, but was too prone to bounce it outside. Similar to Berry Sanders in some aspects. Towards the end of the season, he did at least attempt to push the pile on short yardage, but that's just not his game. I believe that's why they brought in Charbonnet.

However, I believe there were other power runners available in the later rounds that they could've got if they were just needing a short yardage back, someone to spell K9, and for necessary depth.
If that's the case, I would've been ok with them passing on Charbonnet and selecting an interior lineman (offense or defense) in that position. Especially since they went with McIntosh in the 7th, who is a good player in his own right.

In the end, it is what it is. We'll all root for the kid, and we know how valuable the running game is to this team. In the history of the Seahawks, we've only had truly excellent seasons when we've had a star running back.

Thank you for your time and response.

 

[Chapow]

I've only gone through a couple of his games, so take this with a gain of salt. But so far, I don't see much to love.

To me, every single good RB has a style. Some are quick, some fast, some strong, some technical, some excellent blockers, soft hands, routes, shifty, etc. etc. etc. They need to break tackles, break ankles, set up blockers to avoid tacklers, outrun tacklers, run over tacklers, or fall forward. I'm not sure that any of these approaches is better than any other, but every single one of these traits mean that you're getting more yards than you should.

With Charbonnett - I haven't been convinced that he can do any of these just yet. He seems like someone who will take what the play, blockers, and defenders give you - but not much more. And those guys are fine, but they are a dime-a-dozen, and don't warrant a second round pick to me.

With that said, a lot of smart evaluators who know a lot more than me disagree. They have him as a top 5 RB, with fair value in round 2. I just haven't seen that yet.

Charbonnet averaged 7 yards per carry last season with a fairly heavy work load. 4th highest in FBS. That's definitely not only taking what he was given and not much more.

I spent a good deal of time looking into 2023 draft prospect rb rankings after we picked him and I only found 1 that had him ranked lower than the third best rb in the draft (and that 1 had him ranked 4th). I found a few that had him ranked 2nd, but the general consensus was that he was the 3rd best rb in the draft. Point being, saying he was a top 5 rb in the draft is technically true, but that's because the top 3 are also in the top 5.

 

[renofox]

I've only gone through a couple of his games, so take this with a gain of salt. But so far, I don't see much to love.

To me, every single good RB has a style. Some are quick, some fast, some strong, some technical, some excellent blockers, soft hands, routes, shifty, etc. etc. etc. They need to break tackles, break ankles, set up blockers to avoid tacklers, outrun tacklers, run over tacklers, or fall forward. I'm not sure that any of these approaches is better than any other, but every single one of these traits mean that you're getting more yards than you should.

With Charbonnett - I haven't been convinced that he can do any of these just yet. He seems like someone who will take what the play, blockers, and defenders give you - but not much more. And those guys are fine, but they are a dime-a-dozen, and don't warrant a second round pick to me.

With that said, a lot of smart evaluators who know a lot more than me disagree. They have him as a top 5 RB, with fair value in round 2. I just haven't seen that yet.

You didn't mention 2 of the most important things for a short yardage back - vision and acceleration.

The ability to see how the play is going to develop before it happens and get to, and through, the hole that is going to be there.

This is what ZC brings to the running game that we haven't seen consistently since Lynch. Carson did it sometimes, but ZC does it consistently.

He is also a top-level blocker and an outstanding outlet receiver when he leaks out of the backfield.

ZC is much more important to the Seahawks than most people think. Unique skills, contrasting styles, and being a true 1A/B is invaluable and necessary to team success.

 

[RiverDog]

We can mostly agree on that list. QB is the only tier 1 for me, then I'd add RT and WR in the second tier with LT and CB. DL would split into elite pass rushers (very valuable), and others (replaceable). RB is also a low tier for me.

I can't get over the fact that there are so many Pro Bowl/All Pro/All World wide receivers that didn't get their teams to Super Bowls, guys like Megatron, Dez Bryant, Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, OBJ, and so on, while there are what would appear to be extremely pedestrian wide receivers, namely Cooper Kupp, that can win the receiving triple crown and SB MVP. AJ Brown seems to be the exception to that rule as he was arguably the player that got his team over the hump.

I'm also cognizant of the fact of how we built our original LOB team, where we brought in two UDFA's and a low 2nd round pick that doubled as a kick/punt returner, none of whom ever made a Pro Bowl during those years vs. our current M/O of burning 1-1st round and 2-2nd round picks in the past 5 drafts and committing a huge chunk of salary cap to WR's. I just think that it's a highly overrated position and that we've gotten away from what we used to do so well.

Glad you agree with me about running backs. The big difference with them is their susceptibility to injury and their quick decline in productivity as they age. The one saving grace with them is that they are usually good enough athletes to where they can make valuable contributions on special teams.