arghawkfan
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As a complimentary piece to Kearly's bargains, I decided to look into players that I feel will not provide value for their respective draft slot. Keep in mind that I like a lot of the players on this list, i just feel that there is a disconnect between their current ADP's and what i feel they will contribute
QB
Cam Newton # 22 overall
Blake Bortles #73
Tony Romo #95
Andy Dalton: #119
Cam Newton benefitted from the easiest strength of schedule last year and I am betting that his high rushing TD's suffer regression from last year, but he will no doubt put up pretty good numbers, just not what I expect from my 2nd round pick.
Bottles put up monster numbers last year due to playing from behind so often, and this year, with a revamped defence and running game, his numbers will take a hit and there will be better options at his current ADP
Romo has well documented injury concerns and Dallas knows this. Their team is now built to pound the rock and handoff to Ezekiel Elliott, McFadden and Alfred Morris as many times as possible, putting downward pressure on Romo's numbers. Romo does not cost much in the ninth round, but I prefer Rivers or Eli Manning over him at this point.
Dalton lost a tremendous amount of weapons this year with Sanu in Atl, Marvin Jones in Det, Eifert hurt again, and his replacements seem inferior to what he had last year. I am betting for Dalton's numbers to revert back to 2014 Dalton as opposed to his great 2015 numbers prior to injury.
RB:
Todd Gurley: 4th Overall
Devonta Freeman 14th overall
Doug Martin 19th overall
Jonathan Stewart 45th overall
I love Gurley's talent, just not the supporting cast around him. It remains to be seen if Goff can make opposing defences respect the pass, but with a weak receiving core and mediocre o-line, I'm betting that Gurley will be facing 8-9 man front often, and like last year, will have too many stat lines that read 22 rushes for 41 yards and 0 td's. STL also brings in Benny Cunningham on 3rd downs often.
Freeman had a truly dominating 4-5 game stretch last year, but fizzled out after that. His career YPC is still a pedestrian 3.5YPC and of his 32 game career, 95% of his production happened in that short stretch, I want to see to believe before counting on Freeman as my RB1.
Doug Martin just got paid after a great 2015 season; I am reluctant to trust him again given how Martin handled success after his rookie year with 2 mostly ineffective years after. Charles Simms presence also reduces Martin's value to me.
Jonathan Stewart put up pretty good numbers last year, but he simply doesn't get the RZ opportunities that I want in an rb2 with Cam, Tolbert etc stealing carries inside the 5. His medical history also is concerning
WR's
Dez Bryant 11th overall
Amari Cooper 26th overall
Demaryius Thomas 32nd overall
Kelvin Benjamin 36th overall
Larry Fitzgerald 62nd overall
As I stated above, i believe that Cowboys turn to a run based offence and as such will limit Bryant's ceiling. He is however the main viable asking game target with Witten fading and terrance Williams not really posing much of a threat. For those reasons and his continued foot and ankle issues, I am selecting AJ Green, Hopkins, Allen Robinson and perhaps Jordy Nelson ahead of Bryant.
Amari Cooper had an up and down rookie year, with some highlight reel grabs, but also had huge issues with drops and went invisible in several week. David Carr has a nice report with Crabtree, Seth Roberts and Clive Walford, so I see Cooper as more of a streaky WR2
D-Thomas has for the last 2 seasons been one of the least efficient WR's in converting red zone opportunities, and hi situation is not likely to improve. I feel that Sanders and Thomas will put up similar stats, but Sanders will last 3-4 rounds later, and Sanders uses a lot of underneath routes which will be less affected by the QB change in Denver.
Kelvin Benjamin had great raw numbers as a rookie before missing 2015 with an ACL. His injury shouldve had ample time to heal, but what is of concern to me is how a high % of his TD's in 2014 came with his team trailing by 14+ points in garbage time. Devin Funchness had a great end of his 1st year and costs much less the Benjamin, and for my money, id prefer Funchness in the 13th round than Benjamin in round 3-4.
Larry Fitzgerald had a blazing hot start to 2015 when most thought his career was coming to an end, and his ADP is up as a result. Fitz's last 7 games are more of what I would expect from him going forward with so many other mouths to feed in ARZ.
TE's
Jordan Reed 39th overall
Greg Olsen 44th overall
I expect great seasons from both players, but spending a late 3rd or early 4th round pick on a TE is a big investment. Reed had an amazing stretch with Cousins, but also has a very shaky injury history. History suggests that his TD% of his catches will likely see a regression as well.
I immediately jumped on Olsen last year when Benjamin went down for the year and I was rewarded for it. Olsen will see a drop in targets and his TD #s were never high so i feel he is in line for a season with 800-850 yards with 5-6 TD's, which are pretty good numbers, just not what I expect with such a premium pick
QB
Cam Newton # 22 overall
Blake Bortles #73
Tony Romo #95
Andy Dalton: #119
Cam Newton benefitted from the easiest strength of schedule last year and I am betting that his high rushing TD's suffer regression from last year, but he will no doubt put up pretty good numbers, just not what I expect from my 2nd round pick.
Bottles put up monster numbers last year due to playing from behind so often, and this year, with a revamped defence and running game, his numbers will take a hit and there will be better options at his current ADP
Romo has well documented injury concerns and Dallas knows this. Their team is now built to pound the rock and handoff to Ezekiel Elliott, McFadden and Alfred Morris as many times as possible, putting downward pressure on Romo's numbers. Romo does not cost much in the ninth round, but I prefer Rivers or Eli Manning over him at this point.
Dalton lost a tremendous amount of weapons this year with Sanu in Atl, Marvin Jones in Det, Eifert hurt again, and his replacements seem inferior to what he had last year. I am betting for Dalton's numbers to revert back to 2014 Dalton as opposed to his great 2015 numbers prior to injury.
RB:
Todd Gurley: 4th Overall
Devonta Freeman 14th overall
Doug Martin 19th overall
Jonathan Stewart 45th overall
I love Gurley's talent, just not the supporting cast around him. It remains to be seen if Goff can make opposing defences respect the pass, but with a weak receiving core and mediocre o-line, I'm betting that Gurley will be facing 8-9 man front often, and like last year, will have too many stat lines that read 22 rushes for 41 yards and 0 td's. STL also brings in Benny Cunningham on 3rd downs often.
Freeman had a truly dominating 4-5 game stretch last year, but fizzled out after that. His career YPC is still a pedestrian 3.5YPC and of his 32 game career, 95% of his production happened in that short stretch, I want to see to believe before counting on Freeman as my RB1.
Doug Martin just got paid after a great 2015 season; I am reluctant to trust him again given how Martin handled success after his rookie year with 2 mostly ineffective years after. Charles Simms presence also reduces Martin's value to me.
Jonathan Stewart put up pretty good numbers last year, but he simply doesn't get the RZ opportunities that I want in an rb2 with Cam, Tolbert etc stealing carries inside the 5. His medical history also is concerning
WR's
Dez Bryant 11th overall
Amari Cooper 26th overall
Demaryius Thomas 32nd overall
Kelvin Benjamin 36th overall
Larry Fitzgerald 62nd overall
As I stated above, i believe that Cowboys turn to a run based offence and as such will limit Bryant's ceiling. He is however the main viable asking game target with Witten fading and terrance Williams not really posing much of a threat. For those reasons and his continued foot and ankle issues, I am selecting AJ Green, Hopkins, Allen Robinson and perhaps Jordy Nelson ahead of Bryant.
Amari Cooper had an up and down rookie year, with some highlight reel grabs, but also had huge issues with drops and went invisible in several week. David Carr has a nice report with Crabtree, Seth Roberts and Clive Walford, so I see Cooper as more of a streaky WR2
D-Thomas has for the last 2 seasons been one of the least efficient WR's in converting red zone opportunities, and hi situation is not likely to improve. I feel that Sanders and Thomas will put up similar stats, but Sanders will last 3-4 rounds later, and Sanders uses a lot of underneath routes which will be less affected by the QB change in Denver.
Kelvin Benjamin had great raw numbers as a rookie before missing 2015 with an ACL. His injury shouldve had ample time to heal, but what is of concern to me is how a high % of his TD's in 2014 came with his team trailing by 14+ points in garbage time. Devin Funchness had a great end of his 1st year and costs much less the Benjamin, and for my money, id prefer Funchness in the 13th round than Benjamin in round 3-4.
Larry Fitzgerald had a blazing hot start to 2015 when most thought his career was coming to an end, and his ADP is up as a result. Fitz's last 7 games are more of what I would expect from him going forward with so many other mouths to feed in ARZ.
TE's
Jordan Reed 39th overall
Greg Olsen 44th overall
I expect great seasons from both players, but spending a late 3rd or early 4th round pick on a TE is a big investment. Reed had an amazing stretch with Cousins, but also has a very shaky injury history. History suggests that his TD% of his catches will likely see a regression as well.
I immediately jumped on Olsen last year when Benjamin went down for the year and I was rewarded for it. Olsen will see a drop in targets and his TD #s were never high so i feel he is in line for a season with 800-850 yards with 5-6 TD's, which are pretty good numbers, just not what I expect with such a premium pick
