NFC West Title Chances

[nIdahoSeahawk]

So I was playing with the ESPN Playoff machine just a bit ago messing with the different scenarios of the Cards losing while we win out and we tie at 11-5.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if they win this week, they clinch the division? They have the Vikings this week, followed by the Eagles, then Packers. Scenarios I tried and results as follows:

Vikings: L, Eagles W, Packers L: Seahawks Win Divison
Vikings: W, Eagles L, Packers L: Cardinals Win Divison
Vikings: L, Eagles L, Packers W: Cardinals Win Division

So according to the ways I tried, the only scenario the division is ours at an 11-5 tie is if they lose to the Vikings and Packers. Any other combination nets them the division.

Am I doing something wrong, or is this accurate?

 

[Cartire]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.

EDIT: Also, can you explain the error in what I found on the machine/what I may have done wrong on it? That's what this post was getting at.

 

[Seafan]

Did you try 3 losses?

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

Did you try 3 losses?

I did, if we lost any one game except the cardinals game and they lost out, putting us both t 10-6, it showed us taking the division

EDIT: Correction, if we lost either of the next 2 games. We lose vs the Rams and the Cards definitely clinch.

 

[Cartire]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.

Extremely chill. I did inform you correct? You were threatened by this?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119664 (this leads to the fieldgulls article that gives you every single scenario)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119656

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119616

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119560

Those are all on the front page. Some with a ton of detail about every scenario... uhh.. bro.

 

[Cartire]

And to answer, you most likely didnt take into account other teams records as relates to SOV for one of the possible tie-breakers at 11-5

 

[IBleedBlueAndGreen]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.

EDIT: Also, can you explain the error in what I found on the machine/what I may have done wrong on it? That's what this post was getting at.

If they beat Minnesota, they don't clinch 100%. That is because of strength of victory. They could technically still end up tied with us at 11-5 if they then lost to Philadelphia, Green Bay and us. Then if a whole crapload of weird stuff happens with the rest of the NFL we could end up with the tiebreaker of strength of victory. However the likelihood of all those other things that would need to happen actually happening is less than 5 percent. So for all intents and purposes, if they beat Minnesota tomorrow night, they have the division.

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.

Extremely chill. I did inform you correct? You were threatened by this?

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119664 (this leads to the fieldgulls article that gives you every single scenario)

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119656

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119616

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119560

Those are all on the front page. Some with a ton of detail about every scenario... uhh.. bro.

Again, chillax bro. Yup, I overlooked those, thanks. Still, I'm looking for a quick answer, not articles or digging through discussions. No need to be hostile about it man

 

[Cartire]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.

Extremely chill. I did inform you correct? You were threatened by this?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119664 (this leads to the fieldgulls article that gives you every single scenario)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119656

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119616

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119560

Those are all on the front page. Some with a ton of detail about every scenario... uhh.. bro.

Again, chillax bro. Yup, I overlooked those, thanks. Still, I'm looking for a quick answer, not articles or digging through discussions. No need to be hostile about it man

Again, not hostile...bro? (why people still say this as a sarcastic response baffles me) I answered in the post below the one you quoted. It has to do with SOV.

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

Extremely chill. I did inform you correct? You were threatened by this?

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119664 (this leads to the fieldgulls article that gives you every single scenario)

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119656

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119616

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119560

Those are all on the front page. Some with a ton of detail about every scenario... uhh.. bro.

Again, chillax bro. Yup, I overlooked those, thanks. Still, I'm looking for a quick answer, not articles or digging through discussions. No need to be hostile about it man

Again, not hostile...bro? (why people still say this as a sarcastic response baffles me) I answered in the post below the one you quoted. It has to do with SOV.

Okay, I started typing my reply before that 2nd post. Thanks

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.

EDIT: Also, can you explain the error in what I found on the machine/what I may have done wrong on it? That's what this post was getting at.

If they beat Minnesota, they don't clinch 100%. That is because of strength of victory. They could technically still end up tied with us at 11-5 if they then lost to Philadelphia, Green Bay and us. Then if a whole crapload of weird stuff happens with the rest of the NFL we could end up with the tiebreaker of strength of victory. However the likelihood of all those other things that would need to happen actually happening is less than 5 percent. So for all intents and purposes, if they beat Minnesota tomorrow night, they have the division.

Oh yes, forgot about that part, thanks!

 

[Hawks46]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

Actually I think they do. If we tie, we tie record wise, divisional record, and common games. Then it goes down to strength of schedule, in which they win if they beat Minn and GB, since we lost to GB and Cincy, and they beat Cincy already.

So I don't think OP is inaccurate.

 

[Hawks46]

I didn't see any thread, chilax bro.[/quote]

Extremely chill. I did inform you correct? You were threatened by this?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119664 (this leads to the fieldgulls article that gives you every single scenario)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119656

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119616

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119560

Those are all on the front page. Some with a ton of detail about every scenario... uhh.. bro.[/quote]

Again, chillax bro. Yup, I overlooked those, thanks. Still, I'm looking for a quick answer, not articles or digging through discussions. No need to be hostile about it man[/quote]

Again, not hostile...bro? (why people still say this as a sarcastic response baffles me) I answered in the post below the one you quoted. It has to do with SOV.[/quote]

Don't taze me bro !

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

Actually I think they do. If we tie, we tie record wise, divisional record, and common games. Then it goes down to strength of schedule, in which they win if they beat Minn and GB, since we lost to GB and Cincy, and they beat Cincy already.

So I don't think OP is inaccurate.

After playing with the machine more, I think you're right. AZ clinches the division with a win this week. Playing with any combination of W/L for teams that effect our SOS still has them winning the div with a win this week. Thanks!

 

[Cartire]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

Actually I think they do. If we tie, we tie record wise, divisional record, and common games. Then it goes down to strength of schedule, in which they win if they beat Minn and GB, since we lost to GB and Cincy, and they beat Cincy already.

So I don't think OP is inaccurate.

After playing with the machine more, I think you're right. AZ clinches the division with a win this week. Playing with any combination of W/L for teams that effect our SOS still has them winning the div with a win this week. Thanks!

No. Because of Cincy/Steelers and NO and Dallas.

Yes, we lost to cincy and AZ beat them.
Yes, AZ lost to the Steelers and we beat them.

We beat Dallas
They beat NO.

If NO/Cincy lose more then Steelers/Dallas, we win the SOV tiebreaker.

Yes, its a long shot, but its not a clinch after tomorrow no matter what. Please read the fieldgulls post to answer all your questions.

 

[nIdahoSeahawk]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

Actually I think they do. If we tie, we tie record wise, divisional record, and common games. Then it goes down to strength of schedule, in which they win if they beat Minn and GB, since we lost to GB and Cincy, and they beat Cincy already.

So I don't think OP is inaccurate.

After playing with the machine more, I think you're right. AZ clinches the division with a win this week. Playing with any combination of W/L for teams that effect our SOS still has them winning the div with a win this week. Thanks!

No. Because of Cincy/Steelers and NO and Dallas.

Yes, we lost to cincy and AZ beat them.
Yes, AZ lost to the Steelers and we beat them.

We beat Dallas
They beat NO.

If NO/Cincy lose more then Steelers/Dallas, we win the SOV tiebreaker.

Yes, its a long shot, but its not a clinch after tomorrow no matter what. Please read the fieldgulls post to answer all your questions.

Played around with the machine more and you're right. I forgot about Dallas/NO, Thanks

 

[Polaris]

There are a number of threads on the first page that answer this question.

No. They don't clinch.

Actually I think they do. If we tie, we tie record wise, divisional record, and common games. Then it goes down to strength of schedule, in which they win if they beat Minn and GB, since we lost to GB and Cincy, and they beat Cincy already.

So I don't think OP is inaccurate.

After playing with the machine more, I think you're right. AZ clinches the division with a win this week. Playing with any combination of W/L for teams that effect our SOS still has them winning the div with a win this week. Thanks!

No, as stated above Arizona does not clinch the division even with a win tomorrow. They do clinch a spot in the playoffs.

Reasoning? As stated above, when you calculate SoV, if 'Zona wins tomorrow, they could still lose out and we could (and I think will) win out. That would tie Arizona and Seattle at 11-5. If you crank it out, it goes all the way down to the fifth tie-break, SoV. In this case it would be victories by Cincy/NO for Arizona vs Pitt/Dallas for Seattle. Right now it's a net of +3 in favor of Cincy/NO, but that could change and if it does, Seattle would win the tiebreak.

Regardless, if Arizona wins tomorrow, the worst that could happen is they go 11-5 and lose the divisional tie-break. The only other possible 11-5 teams (excluding Carolina since they have their own spot) would be Seattle, Green Bay, and Minny. Seattle is excluded because either Arizona wins the division or they don't. If they do they're (obviously) in, and if they don't then Seattle does. Bottom line: Seattle and Arizona can not compete for the same wildcard spot. That leaves Minny and Green Bay, but at 11-5 or better one of them will win the NFC North and thus will have it's own slot leaving two teams for two wildcards...and thus Arizona would be in.

 

[kearly]

The common games tiebreaker will come into play before strength of schedule or strength of victory. That's why the Vikings and Packers games weigh so heavily, because they are opponents Seattle also played.

If AZ splits those two games (and loses to Philly), then the common opponents tiebreaker is also a tie, and it would move on to strength of victory. This is where Seattle is probably screwed, because AZ beat Cincy (10-2) and Seattle beat Pittsburgh (7-5). Pitt would have to make up a 3 game deficit in the final four games, and that's incredibly unlikely unless you think the Steelers can run the table while the Bengals find a way to lose to Baltimore or SF.

Long story short, if the Vikings lose Thursday, AZ will have a ~99% chance to win the division even if they lose every game the rest of the year and Seattle wins out. Technically, that isn't clinching, but you'd probably have a better chance of winning the lottery than Arizona losing the division if they win on Thursday.

And they will probably win. The Vikings depleted defense is gonna get killed.

The good news is, that if by some crazy fluke Minnesota WINS, then Seattle's chances at the division become way more realistic, as it would only require a Packers win over AZ coupled with Seattle running the table.

 

[Followthelegion]

Kearly's point is an important distinction.

The SoV only comes into play when the common opponents record is tied.

But one addendum that others also pointed out, SoV is not only dependent on Pittsburgh v Cinci, it also depends on the records of Dallas and New Orleans. I actually don't think its utterly implausible that Seattle can get the jump regarding SoV, as I think Pittsburgh will narrow the gap on Cinci and its not inconceivable that Dallas can eek out a couple of wins to finish the year (@home vs Washington in particular).

Not likely, but better chance than winning the lottery!

Still, pulling for the Vikings tonight!