Everyone,
Here is an excellent link that explains the full NFL Playoff Picture.
I have to comment for the NFC West and San Fran vs Seattle, the more things change the more they seem to stay the same.
Last year heading into week 17, San Fran had the division lead with an 10-4-1 record was playing Arizona for the final game of the season, while Seattle was chasing them with a 10-5 record was playing the Rams. In 2012, a San Fran win would win the Division (by a half game) and secure the #2 seed while a Seattle win or tie coupled with a Niner loss would have given Seattle the #2 seed and the Division.
Now fast forward to week 17 in 2013. This time it's Seattle that is hanging on for dear life with the Division lead with a mere one game lead over the Niners after giving up most of her division cushion (last year it was the Niners that went out to a commanding three game lead before Seattle went on a five game tear in December that reduced this lead to a mere half game). Seattle with a 12-3 record plays the Rams (again) for the final game of the season. Like San Fran last year, a win (or tie) wins the division (and the #1 seed this year) outright. Like Seattle, last year, San Fran has to win (against a surging Arizona team) and pray for Seattle to lose (ties won't cut it). Interesting parallels.
Everyone that has access to sports media knows all about the NFCE and NFCN contests between Philly@Dallas and Green Bay@Chicago respectively. These contests will determine the NFCE and NFCN Divsions entirely and have absolutely no impact on any other playoff spot in the NFC.
Three of the other four spots are accounted for. It's only a matter of which team gets which spots. Specifically, Seattle (12-3), Carolina (11-4), and San Fran (11-4) are in. The last spot will be taken by either New Orleans (10-5) [the most likely result] or Arizona (10-5 but needs help).
Everyone here knows Seattle's Scenario. If Seattle wins (or ties) against St Louis at the Clink they clinch it all (HFA). If they don't, then San Fran can steal the division crown by winning (ties won't do it) vs Arizona at Arizona.
San Fran's Scenarios are mostly the inverse of Seattle's with a couple of additional flourishes. Unlike Seattle, San Fran loses the tiebreaks with both New Orleans and Carolina. Thus for San Fran to get the #1 seed they would not only have to win the division crown, but Carolina would also have to lose at Atlanta (fat chance). If San Fran wins the division, they can't be worse than #2 seed (and Carolina would be the #1 seed if that happens).
If Seattle wins the division (most likely) then if San Fran wins vs Arizona, they clinch the #5 seed. If they lose, they will be the #6 seed unless New Orleans also loses.
Bottom line: San Fran is the overwhelming favorite to be the #5 seed.
In the NFC, the most important overall game is probably Tampa Bay @ New Orleans. If New Orleans wins, then Arizona is out no matter what Arizona does. That's because this would be New Orleans 11th win, and the best Arizona could do is force a three way tie at 11-5 (themselves, San Fran, and New Orleans) and Arizona loses out in any such three way tie. If New Orleans loses, then San Fran is LOCKED into the #5 seed provided Seattle wins no matter what happens with Arizona (although Arizona would be the #6 seed with a win in this case).
So basically, New Orelans to make the playoffs has to beat Tampa Bay. Period. To win the division (and the #2 seed....New Orelans can not be the #1 seed now), Carolina would also have to lose at Atlanta. (Not too likely). If New Orleans loses, they have to pray for help from San Fransisco (to eliminate Arizona) and HOPE this happens before the Rams@Seahawks game is decided. Why? If San Fran and Arizona know that Seattle has won, and they know that New Orleans has lost, they can collude to TIE THE GAME. This would give both teams playoff spots and ice New Orleans out. This is a case where a tie would be best for both teams on the field.
The most likely scenario is for New Orleans to win, Carolina to win, and for Seattle to win. This will lock New Orleans into the #5 or #6 wildcard depending on San Fransisco.
Finally, Arizona is clinging onto it's playoff hopes by it's fingernails. Changes are very good that Arizona is going to be eliminated the moment New Orleans beats Tampa Bay (in the Superdome). Thus Arizona could well be 11-5, all dressed up, but no where to go. That reminds me a bit of the 1986 Seahawks that were probably one of the best and hottest teams in football at the end of that year....but missed the playoffs. Another example would be the 11-5 Patriots that just missed as well a few years ago. In fact I think this (or a 10-6 Arizona) is the likely scenario.
Basically Arizona has to win (or tie....see above) and PRAY for a New Orleans loss against Tampa Bay at home. Good luck with that.
Here is an excellent link that explains the full NFL Playoff Picture.
I have to comment for the NFC West and San Fran vs Seattle, the more things change the more they seem to stay the same.
Last year heading into week 17, San Fran had the division lead with an 10-4-1 record was playing Arizona for the final game of the season, while Seattle was chasing them with a 10-5 record was playing the Rams. In 2012, a San Fran win would win the Division (by a half game) and secure the #2 seed while a Seattle win or tie coupled with a Niner loss would have given Seattle the #2 seed and the Division.
Now fast forward to week 17 in 2013. This time it's Seattle that is hanging on for dear life with the Division lead with a mere one game lead over the Niners after giving up most of her division cushion (last year it was the Niners that went out to a commanding three game lead before Seattle went on a five game tear in December that reduced this lead to a mere half game). Seattle with a 12-3 record plays the Rams (again) for the final game of the season. Like San Fran last year, a win (or tie) wins the division (and the #1 seed this year) outright. Like Seattle, last year, San Fran has to win (against a surging Arizona team) and pray for Seattle to lose (ties won't cut it). Interesting parallels.
Everyone that has access to sports media knows all about the NFCE and NFCN contests between Philly@Dallas and Green Bay@Chicago respectively. These contests will determine the NFCE and NFCN Divsions entirely and have absolutely no impact on any other playoff spot in the NFC.
Three of the other four spots are accounted for. It's only a matter of which team gets which spots. Specifically, Seattle (12-3), Carolina (11-4), and San Fran (11-4) are in. The last spot will be taken by either New Orleans (10-5) [the most likely result] or Arizona (10-5 but needs help).
Everyone here knows Seattle's Scenario. If Seattle wins (or ties) against St Louis at the Clink they clinch it all (HFA). If they don't, then San Fran can steal the division crown by winning (ties won't do it) vs Arizona at Arizona.
San Fran's Scenarios are mostly the inverse of Seattle's with a couple of additional flourishes. Unlike Seattle, San Fran loses the tiebreaks with both New Orleans and Carolina. Thus for San Fran to get the #1 seed they would not only have to win the division crown, but Carolina would also have to lose at Atlanta (fat chance). If San Fran wins the division, they can't be worse than #2 seed (and Carolina would be the #1 seed if that happens).
If Seattle wins the division (most likely) then if San Fran wins vs Arizona, they clinch the #5 seed. If they lose, they will be the #6 seed unless New Orleans also loses.
Bottom line: San Fran is the overwhelming favorite to be the #5 seed.
In the NFC, the most important overall game is probably Tampa Bay @ New Orleans. If New Orleans wins, then Arizona is out no matter what Arizona does. That's because this would be New Orleans 11th win, and the best Arizona could do is force a three way tie at 11-5 (themselves, San Fran, and New Orleans) and Arizona loses out in any such three way tie. If New Orleans loses, then San Fran is LOCKED into the #5 seed provided Seattle wins no matter what happens with Arizona (although Arizona would be the #6 seed with a win in this case).
So basically, New Orelans to make the playoffs has to beat Tampa Bay. Period. To win the division (and the #2 seed....New Orelans can not be the #1 seed now), Carolina would also have to lose at Atlanta. (Not too likely). If New Orleans loses, they have to pray for help from San Fransisco (to eliminate Arizona) and HOPE this happens before the Rams@Seahawks game is decided. Why? If San Fran and Arizona know that Seattle has won, and they know that New Orleans has lost, they can collude to TIE THE GAME. This would give both teams playoff spots and ice New Orleans out. This is a case where a tie would be best for both teams on the field.
The most likely scenario is for New Orleans to win, Carolina to win, and for Seattle to win. This will lock New Orleans into the #5 or #6 wildcard depending on San Fransisco.
Finally, Arizona is clinging onto it's playoff hopes by it's fingernails. Changes are very good that Arizona is going to be eliminated the moment New Orleans beats Tampa Bay (in the Superdome). Thus Arizona could well be 11-5, all dressed up, but no where to go. That reminds me a bit of the 1986 Seahawks that were probably one of the best and hottest teams in football at the end of that year....but missed the playoffs. Another example would be the 11-5 Patriots that just missed as well a few years ago. In fact I think this (or a 10-6 Arizona) is the likely scenario.
Basically Arizona has to win (or tie....see above) and PRAY for a New Orleans loss against Tampa Bay at home. Good luck with that.
