My Pessimistic View of our Cap Situation

[Tical21]

Time for me to earn my class pessimist label. I've been reading posts since the Super Bowl about guys we "have" to keep, to find a way to get done, etc. Doing my remedial math and going over some basic numbers, I just really don't see that we can do much of anything at all, let alone sign anybody to pretty large contracts, i.e. Bennett and Golden.

From the reports on the radio, we're currently somewhere around 1-2 million over the cap. I've seen arguments that we're 1-2 million under, but whatever, we'll just consider it that we're at the cap for these purposes. This, of course, is without Bennett's money, without Tate, Breno, McDaniels/Donald, Hauschka, etc., etc., etc.

So, first, we've got to find a way to field a team, right? We need some bodies on the D-Line, maybe some on the O-Line. Just in order to field a team, we can cut Sidney Rice, right? The popular names that everybody throws around to cut are Rice, Miller, Red and Clem. Saves us 24 million against the cap this season. Right? Follow me?

The popular sentiment around here is that we immediately can spend that 24 million. We can give 8 of it to Bennett, 6 to Golden, re-sign Breno and McDaniel and Hauschka, maybe re-negotiate Red and basically be done with it right? I know contracts are for more complex than this, but we're in the ballpark.

A few things keep looming in my head. Sure, we have those four guys that are "dead weight". But we really don't have anybody like this coming up in the next few years. The next steps are to start talking about cutting guys like Lynch and Mebane. A little different from cutting Sidney Rice and Zach Miller. So we're not going to have the luxury of just cutting dead weight every year. The fat will basically be trimmed after this one-time deal.

The other issue I see is that we can't afford to be at the cap. By the end of next season, we need to find a way to come up with 30 million, maybe more, to keep Russell Wilson and Sherman. Thomas may not cost a bunch up front, but his contract will be really big in later years too. Okung may actually save us a couple of million up-front as he has a pretty big cap number now. 30 million, gentlemen (and ladies), 30 milllion. 30 million.

So, I view this as our one chance. I view the cutting of Rice, Miller, Red and Clem as our chance to keep Richard Sherman. If you want to find a way to do it, that is your way to do it. But you need to change your philosophy from "if there is any way to keep player x, we'll find it", to "if there is any way to cut player x, we have to do it". We are deepest team in the NFL? Time to prove it.

If we want to keep Sherman, we can't afford Bennett. We can't afford Golden. We can't afford Breno. We probably can't afford McDaniel. Maybe McDonald, maybe McDaniel if he comes really cheap on a short deal. Probably can't afford Hauschka.

If Bowie looks ready, gotta save the money. If Willson/McCoy look ready, gotta save the money. If Jordan Hill isn't ready, still gotta save the money. Unless you think we don't need Sherman. Then it makes things a bit more breathable.

After Russell and Sherm are done, we're going to have more than 50 million tied up in four players. Then you start talking Mebane, Kam, Lynch, Okung, and you've got like 75 million tied up in 8 players. 2/3 of your cap in 8 players. I don't think we have room to add another 7-8 million dollar contract. I don't even think we have room to add another 4 million dollar contract, long-term.

Am I wrong? Am I missing something? Please, please don't simply respond by saying John Schneider finds a way because he's John Schneider. I would love to think that we can re-sign and extend everybody and all hold hands around the fire, but I don't even know that a miracle can do this. The good news, is that most of the guys will be back next year, let's go get another one.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Cap space carries over. Seattle has 2 extra million to spend on top of a potential cap move to 130 million for 2014. That would give Seattle an extra 8 million in space this year beyond the potential 25 million in cuts. (That 8 million covers 75% of Thomas's average contract, I'd guess.)

Sherman may demand Revis money...if he wants to go no guarantees. But if Schneider extends him this year, that extra 10-12 million over what he'd be earning on a 5th round draft salary, and the upfront signing bonus, and a big guarantee, can keep the number less than seems to be the expected norm of 16-20 million a year.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Most of what you typed makes sense.

I think we're fine for 2014, freeing up 24-27 million in cap space by cutting players and re-doing some other contracts will be more than enough to re-sign guys like Bennett, Tate, etc (or replace them with quality FA's if they leave).

It's 2015 when we will have to make some hard choices like what you're talking about with Lynch.

BUT, if anything the last 4 years has taught us, it's in John Schneider and Pete Carroll we trust. They put together one of the youngest SB winning rosters in NFL history starting from ground zero, I have faith that they'll continue to make the right choices so this team can keep competing for SB's for the foreseeable future.

 

[Northhawk]

Most of what you typed makes sense.

I think we're fine for 2014, freeing up 24-27 million in cap space by cutting players and re-doing some other contracts will be more than enough to re-sign guys like Bennett, Tate, etc (or replace them with quality FA's if they leave).

It's 2015 when we will have to make some hard choices like what you're talking about with Lynch.

BUT, if anything the last 4 years has taught us, it's in John Schneider and Pete Carroll we trust. They put together one of the youngest SB winning rosters in NFL history starting from ground zero, I have faith that they'll continue to make the right choices so this team can keep competing for SB's for the foreseeable future.

Agreed. That's why last year's and this year's drafts are important cause we need to have options if we can't sign some of our players.

 

[FlyingGreg]

My advice is to not "worry" about. Let Pete, John and Matt Thomas (our cap guy) sort it all out.

Don't get me wrong - our cap situation (as it stands) is concerning, mostly (for me) because of the massive deals we are going to add onto the pile in the next few years (Sherman, Thomas and Wilson). But I also know this front office has a plan and knew this was coming and they will manage it the best they can.

This is how it is in the modern day salary cap NFL. This is a big reason why you don't see "dynasties". However, if there is one franchise that has proven they know how to churn young talent and not miss a beat, it's the Seahawks. We have an incredibly deep and extremely talented roster, and our coaches know how to get players ready to step up. The roster will look different next year, no question. And it will look different every year after that.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Superbowl Champs, for all of 12 days. It's gonna' be ok

 

[Natethegreat]

I've changed my hope of getting Kelvin Benjamin in round one to Aaron Donald . He would be a perfect replacement for Bennet and has the potential to be a Geno Atkins type lineman. Not to mention we have Scruggs, Hill, and possibly the monstar(if he can get healthy) who could replace Red. We have been preparing for this already and I doubt we resign Bennet and I think we restructure Red this year.
Tate may be gone as well, but this draft is stocked with receivers, and the ones we have are pretty effective as it is. Hopefully Harvin will be healthy next year. I do wonder if we cut Rice altogether or restructure with a far lower contract. I am for releasing him altogether myself. Even with all these moves we still have a monster defense possibly just as good or better depending on who we draft.
We do need to come up with a receiver either in the draft (lots of good options even in the later rounds) or free agency but its not nearly as dire as you seem to think it is.

 

[volsunghawk]

Actually, I think next offseason, the idea of cutting Mebane and Lynch will be very real. I'm not calling them "dead weight" by any stretch of the imagination, but there are going to be tough decisions to be made each season.

For this coming year, I think Clemons and Rice are absolutely gone. I think Miller and Bryant may be in that "rework the contract or best of luck to you" area.

I think Breno and McQuistan are likely gone, too. I think Hauschka will be given a reasonable offer and allowed to walk if he seeks much more than $1 million a year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Avril extended in a way that reduces his cap hit in 2014. That's a possible option for both Thomas and Okung this year, too, I believe.

I think we're going to need to get used to seeing long-time guys allowed to seek employment elsewhere unless they're really near the top of the NFL in their positions. McDonald and McDaniel will likely be allowed to leave unless they agree to very reasonable deals (not vet minimum, but not much more than that).

I keep going back to the Field Gulls series that outlined how the Packers handled their personnel/cap issues: http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-anal ... -schneider

The basic idea is that you have about 18 players on your 53-man roster who are your "stars." These players will take the bulk of your cap.

The other 2/3rds of the roster - about 35 players - are guys who are on their rookie deals.

I don't see any reason why Seattle can't adhere to this type of model.

 

[Hawkstorian]

I've followed the cap for years (except when there wasn't one!) and while we have some tough choices to make, I'm not super concerned.

From my math, factoring RFA tenders and cap carryovers and other things that get in there our current cap situation is essentially ZERO. If someone says we're a million over or a million under it really doesn't matter. We are basically starting with nothing or close to it.

Here's what I hope happens:

1) Rice & Clemons cut (no brainers, although I would bring both back at lower contracts).
2) Re-do/extend Thomas & Okung. Their deals are both big enough now that we could extend them AND lower 2014 cap. This is why Sherman probably isn't currently a priority, because we need to ad money to re-do him.
3) This leaves some money to re-sign Bennett or Tate or Giacomini or Hauschka. We're just not going to bring back everyone, and at this point I really couldn't guess who comes back and who doesn't.
4) Go bargain shopping in free agency, find the next Tony McDaniel (cheap & productive!)
5) After the draft -- start looking at new deals for Sherman, Wright .. which sounds nice in theory but also very hard and may get pushed to 2015.

I think mapping out point by point how the off-season will/should go is going to be very complicated -- my big thing right now is Thomas & Okung. Those are more important deals to work on now than Sherman.

 

[kidhawk]

Everything the front office has said and done has shown that they are looking ahead when they do all these deals, so I'm not overly concerned beyond this year. I do want to get as many people re-signed this year as we can because next off season, the cap is due to increase and with that, contracts generally rise overall, so the more players we can get under contract long term now the better.

I used to be more concerned with what we'd do every off season, but Pete and John have done such an amazing job at keeping us within the cap and still competing at a high level that I find myself feeling less angst this year, when in reality this is the year I should be feeling the most angst

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The basic idea is that you have about 18 players on your 53-man roster who are your "stars." These players will take the bulk of your cap.

The other 2/3rds of the roster - about 35 players - are guys who are on their rookie deals.

Bingo. The only caveat is that we have to keep hitting a high percentage of successes in the draft and sprinkle in a few key FA signings.........which again I have total faith that Pete and John will keep doing.

The only struggle I see now is Pete and John had a good 3-4 year head start on the rest of the league with drafting their type of players. Now the rest of the league is furiously dissecting and analyzing what they've done, and will be copying it. Thus making it a bigger challenge. But again, I have total faith.

 

[DavidSeven]

The Packers have three players accounting for about $40M of cap next year (Rodgers, Matthews, Tramon Williams) AND have $30M in free cap space! In Detroit, Stafford/Megatron/Suh are going to hit them for $50M of cap next year, and they're still $6M under the cap with 9 other players making over $3M. Say what you want about Detroit, but they could win it all with a good coach and if Stafford was a little better. Everyone expects Green Bay to contend every year, even though they've drafted poorly recently.

As long as the guys you pay live up to what you're paying them, you can continue winning under this model. You need to find the right rookies and bargain deals to replace the merely "good" players that you refuse to overpay. Does anyone really think Green Bay is going to suck because they lost Jennings last year and are dumping Finley this year? No. You expect others to step up, because Rodgers is that good. The ideal is that Wilson, Sherman, and Thomas will have a similar affect on the players around them.

Anyway, the reality is this isn't even a big concern until 2016. 2016! If we extend Thomas and Sherman now, their cap hits in 2015 will be low due to pro-rated signing bonuses. In 2015, Russell's cap hit will be low for the same reason. In 2016, you'll likely be paying all three a lot, but Marshawn will be 30 by then and maybe we move on from Harvin or restructure him.

I see no reason to freak out just yet!

 

[v1rotv2]

My advice is to not "worry" about. Let Pete, John and Matt Thomas (our cap guy) sort it all out.

Don't get me wrong - our cap situation (as it stands) is concerning, mostly (for me) because of the massive deals we are going to add onto the pile in the next few years (Sherman, Thomas and Wilson). But I also know this front office has a plan and knew this was coming and they will manage it the best they can.

This is how it is in the modern day salary cap NFL. This is a big reason why you don't see "dynasties". However, if there is one franchise that has proven they know how to churn young talent and not miss a beat, it's the Seahawks. We have an incredibly deep and extremely talented roster, and our coaches know how to get players ready to step up. The roster will look different next year, no question. And it will look different every year after that.

Chief of the Boat, you are correct on all counts. And the biggest take away is "they have a plan."

 

[volsunghawk]

The basic idea is that you have about 18 players on your 53-man roster who are your "stars." These players will take the bulk of your cap.

The other 2/3rds of the roster - about 35 players - are guys who are on their rookie deals.

Bingo. The only caveat is that we have to keep hitting a high percentage of successes in the draft and sprinkle in a few key FA signings.........which again I have total faith that Pete and John will keep doing.

The only struggle I see now is Pete and John had a good 3-4 year head start on the rest of the league with drafting their type of players. Now the rest of the league is furiously dissecting and analyzing what they've done, and will be copying it. Thus making it a bigger challenge. But again, I have total faith.

Yeah, drafting well is crucial to keeping the cycle going. Those draft picks have to replace the mid-tier guys who leave in FA, and if they become stars, they have to allow you to move on from some of those 18 big money guys.

And I think this is going to be damn hard on us as fans. We're going to see guys like Smith, Browner, Robinson, Giacomini, etc. leave on a pretty regular basis as we replace them with draft picks. I'm not even sure guys like Irvin, Wright, or Unger are safe beyond their current deals. But for as hard as it is going to be on us seeing fan favorites depart, it's going to be much harder on Schneider, since he was instrumental in bringing most of these guys in and will have to be the one that pulls the trigger on letting them walk.

 

[SeatownJay]

"We're doomed."

 

[Scottemojo]

Time for me to earn my class pessimist label. I've been reading posts since the Super Bowl about guys we "have" to keep, to find a way to get done, etc. Doing my remedial math and going over some basic numbers, I just really don't see that we can do much of anything at all, let alone sign anybody to pretty large contracts, i.e. Bennett and Golden.

From the reports on the radio, we're currently somewhere around 1-2 million over the cap. I've seen arguments that we're 1-2 million under, but whatever, we'll just consider it that we're at the cap for these purposes. This, of course, is without Bennett's money, without Tate, Breno, McDaniels/Donald, Hauschka, etc., etc., etc.

So, first, we've got to find a way to field a team, right? We need some bodies on the D-Line, maybe some on the O-Line. Just in order to field a team, we can cut Sidney Rice, right? The popular names that everybody throws around to cut are Rice, Miller, Red and Clem. Saves us 24 million against the cap this season. Right? Follow me?

The popular sentiment around here is that we immediately can spend that 24 million. We can give 8 of it to Bennett, 6 to Golden, re-sign Breno and McDaniel and Hauschka, maybe re-negotiate Red and basically be done with it right? I know contracts are for more complex than this, but we're in the ballpark.

A few things keep looming in my head. Sure, we have those four guys that are "dead weight". But we really don't have anybody like this coming up in the next few years. The next steps are to start talking about cutting guys like Lynch and Mebane. A little different from cutting Sidney Rice and Zach Miller. So we're not going to have the luxury of just cutting dead weight every year. The fat will basically be trimmed after this one-time deal.

The other issue I see is that we can't afford to be at the cap. By the end of next season, we need to find a way to come up with 30 million, maybe more, to keep Russell Wilson and Sherman. Thomas may not cost a bunch up front, but his contract will be really big in later years too. Okung may actually save us a couple of million up-front as he has a pretty big cap number now. 30 million, gentlemen (and ladies), 30 milllion. 30 million.

So, I view this as our one chance. I view the cutting of Rice, Miller, Red and Clem as our chance to keep Richard Sherman. If you want to find a way to do it, that is your way to do it. But you need to change your philosophy from "if there is any way to keep player x, we'll find it", to "if there is any way to cut player x, we have to do it". We are deepest team in the NFL? Time to prove it.

If we want to keep Sherman, we can't afford Bennett. We can't afford Golden. We can't afford Breno. We probably can't afford McDaniel. Maybe McDonald, maybe McDaniel if he comes really cheap on a short deal. Probably can't afford Hauschka.

If Bowie looks ready, gotta save the money. If Willson/McCoy look ready, gotta save the money. If Jordan Hill isn't ready, still gotta save the money. Unless you think we don't need Sherman. Then it makes things a bit more breathable.

After Russell and Sherm are done, we're going to have more than 50 million tied up in four players. Then you start talking Mebane, Kam, Lynch, Okung, and you've got like 75 million tied up in 8 players. 2/3 of your cap in 8 players. I don't think we have room to add another 7-8 million dollar contract. I don't even think we have room to add another 4 million dollar contract, long-term.

Am I wrong? Am I missing something? Please, please don't simply respond by saying John Schneider finds a way because he's John Schneider. I would love to think that we can re-sign and extend everybody and all hold hands around the fire, but I don't even know that a miracle can do this. The good news, is that most of the guys will be back next year, let's go get another one.

Lynch is a next year issue. Who knows what his odometer will look like by then? As for the rest, here goes.

You are absolutely correct, there is only room on the roster for 7 or 8 big deals, and you will probably have to count Russell as two of those. We are going to lose fan favorites. There is no doubt about that. The compensatory picks we get will be of small consolation to fans, but they matter.

This year is when John Schneider begins to earn his raises. This is uncharted territory for Seahawk fans, having half our team both coveted and earning a lot of eyeball as free agents. However, there is a myth that John and Pete somehow got lucky with late round picks. Which is unsustainable. I adamantly counter that Pete's program is so good at developing players that we can expect the late round success to continue. Pete's program is absolutely sustainable.

I would not be averse to trading/losing to free agency Richard Sherman or any other star besides Wilson/Earl/Kam (who is locked up anyway) if need be. I know that statement is as popular as drinking horse piss, especially in the case of Sherman, but bear with me. Take fan sentimentality out of the mix, and there are a couple of undeniable facts.

As a secondary coach(and head coach here), Pete coached a Niners secondary, a Vikings secondary, and a Seahawks secondary into what is statistically supported as 3 of the best secondaries of the last 40 years. There is also some merit to believing that he knows what the hell he is doing schematically when you consider how he has made guys like Maxwell, Browner, and Lane look like very good NFL players. The only constant in those 3 teams? Pete. His program and approach will continue to develop good athletes into good players. I used to think the draft was all about finding good players, but it has been watching this program that has convinced me just want a role player development plays in a great program.

Also, much as we love Sherman here, there is some merit to the argument you hear from NFL players that Sherman isn't a true lockdown player, primarily because he plays so much cover 3 zone, and he plays the right side only. I am not denying the talent we have seen on the field, or cheapening his ability, but outside of week two on a slow Boldin, we do not see Seattle scheme to take away the best receiver on the other team by putting one DB on him. Any team willing to pay Richard huge money to go all over the field and lock down a receiver would be purchasing an unknown quantitiy which I think Tical is well aware of. My point? Paying Richard top CB money would be silly. I would not begrudge him a big contract, top ten, but if Seattle signed him to the biggest deal a CB has gotten they would be paying him to do things they schematically will not even ask him to do. Add to that Pete's track record of great secondaries, and I think we can trust this front office to sustain good defense without going into cap hell to keep players beyond a small group of stars.

 

[FlyingGreg]

Speaking of the draft...we need a good one this year, especially with the first round pick which has been more miss than hit with Pete and John.

As it stands today, our 2013 draft is pretty uninspiring. We only got meaningful contributions from a 5th round pick (Willson) and a 7th round pick (Bowie). It was a luxury draft, understandably - our roster was stacked and it was going to be hard for those picks to break in. I also realize Michael was a future pick.

But this time around, we need to hit on a lot more and get eventual replacements in place for the upcoming exodus.

 

[Scottemojo]

Speaking of the draft...we need a good one this year, especially with the first round pick which has been more miss than hit with Pete and John.

As it stands today, our 2013 draft is pretty uninspiring. We only got meaningful contributions from a 5th round pick (Willson) and a 7th round pick (Bowie). It was a luxury draft, understandably - our roster was stacked and it was going to be hard for those picks to break in. I also realize Michael was a future pick.

But this time around, we need to hit on a lot more and get eventual replacements in place for the upcoming exodus.

It was not a luxury draft. It was a red shirt draft. There is a big philisophical difference.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

And I think this is going to be damn hard on us as fans. We're going to see guys like Smith, Browner, Robinson, Giacomini, etc. leave on a pretty regular basis as we replace them with draft picks. I'm not even sure guys like Irvin, Wright, or Unger are safe beyond their current deals. But for as hard as it is going to be on us seeing fan favorites depart, it's going to be much harder on Schneider, since he was instrumental in bringing most of these guys in and will have to be the one that pulls the trigger on letting them walk.

I think seeing these guys leave will be a walk in the park compared to if/when we have to cut a guy like Marshawn. His contract is through 2015, so if he has another BeastMode-esque season next year, I'm not sure we can afford to give him another big contract for another 2-3 years like he'll want.

 

[YEGHawkfan]

Decided to finally stop lurking....

Not too worried at this point. There will always be players who leave that I wish the Seahawks could keep. In responding to the original post worrying about 30 million in cap room for 2015, here are my thoughts. If we cut Clemons, Rice and Bryant this year there will be about 7.6 million in dead money along with the cap savings (provided all players are cut before June 1st). We can't spend that this year, but this becomes available in 2015. Currently the cap hits for Okung and Harvin drop by a combined 4.5 million in 2015. Cliff Avril counts for 9.25 million against the cap in 2014, but is a free agent afterwards. If we don't cut Miller this year, we could cut him next year and save 5 million. As much as it pains me to say it, I believe Lynch will also be cut after 2014, as his salary in 2015 will be 9.0 million, and cutting him would result in a savings of 7.5 million. This results in about 33.8 million in cap room, doesn't factor in an increase to the salary cap due to new TV revenue and only results in the loss of 3 players and 1 million in dead money. I think this gives JS/PC a number of options moving forward.