My Kind Half-Baked NFC West Outlook

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Was kind of bored.

So, would the following be a fair and reasonable model of the NFC West?

Arizona Cardinals
OFFENSE: 80
DEFENSE: 85
SPECIAL TEAMS: 85
COACHING: 75
CULTURE: 75

TEAM (AVG): 80

I wasn’t going to include the Cards in this as I haven’t really been keeping tabs on them so ill try to keep it short on the rundown. My feeling is they probably are a year or likely two away but have enough to surprise. Don’t think they are a bad team talent wise but they seem like middle of the pack at best, they were competitive in a lot of their games when healthy just couldn’t finish. Once Connor went down and then Murray, then QB drama, the team basically gave up for the most part.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
OFF: 90+
DEF: 90+
ST: 85
COACH: 95+
CULT: 95

TEAM (AVG): 90

IF and big IF the 49ers key players can stay healthy then their offense and defense will likely trend up hence the (+). They also got to figure out some things out with iOL and their iDL as they might not be on the same level as with the Rams or Hawks. They also lost some coaches, so slight ding, or it might have been 100 but gave them high culture factor because it was respectable how hard they fought through their adversity and was able claw their way into being a contender. And adding Evans and getting Greenlaw back gives them even more outstanding leadership especially in that young WR group that was kind of lacking last season. Plus, because of all the injuries a lot of their depth are more seasoned and better prepared. They are a real threat as any, again, if they can stay healthy enough.

LA RAMS
OFF: 100
DEF: 100
ST: 80
COACH: 100
CULT: 85

TEAM(AVG): 93

I was probably the most generous with the Rams grading as they are the SB favorites and just so effin’ “perfect”. And still gave their coaching 100 even though I deducted the other teams for losing coordinators/coaches. Yet, the two factors that bring their score down is their ST and their culture. Specifically, the culture as they more than less reflect their whiny, entitled, self absorbed bitch of a HC even if he is the best offensive mind in the NFL. Furthermore, Rams continue to wave goodbye to many of their strongest leaders that either get traded, cut, or retire. They also have one of the weakest and most passive fanbases that don’t necessarily inspire and motivate passion and heart. As perfect as everyone wants us to believe they are, they aren’t completely without fault, and i’ll say it again as my best way to describe them: they are a juggernaut with a glass jaw.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
OFF: 85+
DEF: 95+
ST: 95+
COACH: 95+
CULT: 100

TEAM (AVG): 94

I felt like I was being the least generous with the Seahawks grading and handicap them to make a point. The offense looks much better on paper but playing into outside narratives we have to replace Ken Walker and work in a first time OC. Defense should be 100 but again we have to replace Woolen, Mafe, and Bryant, and like 5 players from our front 7 are over 30. So slight deduction. We lost Kubiak and Janocko, so slight deduction. ST probably should also be 100 but Myers can be hot/cold from year to year and I don’t want to seem too perfect because we aren’t the Rams. However, the one thing I did give the Seahawks absolute credit for is their culture: these guys are locked in, mission over bullshit, they just won the SB not because they were the most talented team, but because they were the best team, all in for each other, having each others backs, position groups spending spending time with other position groups and learning about each other, silencing the divisive inner social hierarchy circles and really captivating the feeling of playing as one. Leadership everywhere, accountability everywhere, focus everywhere, passion everywhere, responsibility everywhere, grit everywhere because its modeled and reflected on who Macdonald is as a coach and as person. Not to mention one of the best fanbases in the world to play for.

Its a tight knit race between the big 3 but that doesn't paint the entirety of the picture I suppose so I thought to come up with a schedule factor (although Im treating as a bonus rather than a deduction as most people should) with final team averages with including the schedule factor.

Seahawks: 94 (+0 1st place schedule)
Rams: 94 (+1 2nd place schedule)
49ers: 92 (+2 3rd place schedule)
Cards: 83 (+3 4th place schedule)

Winning the NFC West could realistically come down to injury and luck.

Treating the schedule factor as a deduction:

Seahawks: 91 (-3 1st place schedule)
Rams : 91 (-2 2nd place schedule)
49ers : 89 (-1 3rd place schedule)
Cards : 80 (-0 4th place schedule)

 

[sutz]

Curious what your numbers mean? PFF grades? Percentages of some sort? Madden grades? Something you invented in your basement?

 

[Ramfan128]

The culture for the Rams is top notch. Go look at what players like Davante and Stafford have said about it compared to other teams.

Playing along with your rating system....the Rams offense is probably 95 - certainly not perfect. And while I would take the Rams defense over anyone's after the Garrett trade, there is no way they should be rated above Seattle until they prove that. So I would that as 95 too. Team average ends up about the same.

LA RAMS
OFF: 95
DEF: 95
ST: 80
COACH: 100
CULT: 95

TEAM(AVG): 93

 

[Ostatehawk]

This will be an epic fail if the Ram's all-in move does not work out. Even if it is close - as I fully expect it to be - not getting to and wining the Super Bowl will be a disaster for the Rams.

It is going to be a fist fight right up till the end.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Curious what your numbers mean? PFF grades? Percentages of some sort? Madden grades? Something you invented in your basement?

Honestly, knew I probably should have explained logic and reasoning but was kind of over it typing that out on a phone keyboard. And you are going to hate it but its really nothing but gut feel, just my own personal assessment, that is why I called it half-baked, combining it with the outside narratives of each team.

There is not really much of any statistical analysis incorporated they are mostly just numbers so they are basically a Madden based formula without going through each player in singularity. But also a little different from Madden as I kept my scale in increments of 5s rather than 1s.

I was just looking at San Frans and Rams rosters and just started thinking and I guess had a desire to paint those thoughts into numbers of what I perceived and felt x what i’ve read from others in terms of narratives. With ultimate goal of showing how close these teams really are or can be despite the expectations that Rams are the overwhelming favorite.

But there was fairness and some integrity involved my process although it was relatively compared to the Seahawks for example like the majority of fans would probably rank the NFCW Offenses:

1. Rams, 2. 49ers, 3. Seahawks, 4. Cards

Then took things into account like 49ers O probably should either be the same or lower than Seahawks D. But Rams O should probably be the same or higher.

Furthermore, the only thing I really spent a lot of my brain power on is the CULTURE factor and ratings. I just thought it up in the last minute while I was finished crunching out numbers. And why it gets talked about the most in my thought pieces below the grades.

Culture was based on three factors:

1. Leadership/Integrity/Professionalism:

Like balancing an upside down pyramid , it starts at the top with the HC, then if that section breaks who are the next guys in line holding the team up, and how are the next group in line following those leaders. Whether inside or outside the uniform, are these guys still professional? Just how many guys from staff to players are locked into the team and acting accord to the philosophy, ethos, rules, etc. that the HC requires and is the HC himself holding himself accountable and leading by example. Basically, this is about players trust and willingness to set their own egos aside for the good of the team, protect the team, have unadulterated confidence that the person and people in charge know exactly what they are doing and why they are doing it, and they’ll be rewarded for it one way or another if they follow suit.

2. Resiliency/Togetherness/Grit

This is about team building, how much chemistry, trust, and respect these guys have for each other, how much resolve and constitution they have collectively when they get punched in the mouth, when they have their backs against the wall and have to battle through adversity like injuries and poor performance and how they hold each other accountable but more importantly how they hold each other up, how they bounce back and overcome those type of issues.

3: Passion/Heart/Fanbase

The collective desire, fire, motivation, attitude of the team just winning not just for themselves, not just for a paycheck, not just for their legacies but more importantly for the fans, the engagement, the inclusion, the appreciation and how their fans respond and return it back by creating a frenzied, overwhelming atmosphere.

 

[sutz]

OK Pandion. Thanks for taking the time to explain, such as it is.

 

[CPHawk]

The culture for the Rams is top notch. Go look at what players like Davante and Stafford have said about it compared to other teams.

Playing along with your rating system....the Rams offense is probably 95 - certainly not perfect. And while I would take the Rams defense over anyone's after the Garrett trade, there is no way they should be rated above Seattle until they prove that. So I would that as 95 too. Team average ends up about the same.

LA RAMS
OFF: 95
DEF: 95
ST: 80
COACH: 100
CULT: 95

TEAM(AVG): 93

Yes. Stafford comparing it to the Lions.