MMQB DEEP DIVE SUPER BOWL PREVIEW

[Hyak]

Benoit did a good job pointing out matchup strategies. Hope he is wrong on the prediction but I do agree passing it may be a challenge unless Wilson buys time running around to get guys open.

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/21/nfl-new-e ... deep-dive/

 

[ManBunts]

Mmmm...not convinced by this analysis. I think our teams match up way better than last year, but to say our passing game has no chance is absurd. No we don't have a Megatron-ish WR, but we have Doug, Jermaine, Norwood, Lockette, Willson, Lynch out of the backfield, heck even Tukuafu. I'm sorry, but we have a ridiculous amount of weapons there, and Revis/Browner will not be able to stifle them all. Revis is one guy. Browner, well, we know Browner. He brought the boom, but was not the fastest guy in coverage. NE's safeties are surprisingly quick to the ball, but their LBs are very much a more traditional unit. I don't think we get away with a lot of long bombs, but I can see quick crosses, short slants and wheel routes being very successful.

I'm LOVING Lynch vs their D. If Bevell doesn't give Lynch at least 12 carries before halftime I'm going to fly there, skin him, wear a Bevell suit and make the playcalls myself. Lynch is very much a second half player, we know that, but he can't start cold and needs those carries to get the blood pumping.

It's not so much the prediction I have a problem with (I do have a problem there in that it's wrong), it just treats our offense like this one dimensional juggernaut. Like, well, the Pats. The have the passing game. Done. Blount is a by-product of that system, with little skill save that he has endurance and can pound the rock. But us, I mean, dear god, how do you cover the read option, Russell fakes, rolls right, then can either run, pass to his right to Luke who has snuck behind coverage, or maybe he crosses to Lynch who peeled out into the opposite flats. No, this is a very simple analysis for a very not-simple offense.

So here we go. We pound the ball, control the clock right from the start. Make their LBs and safeties cheat in. Kill them with screens and wheel routes and an occasional deep ball with their DBs get greedy. On defense we stick to our basic rush. Brady is awesome against the blitz. Fine. We don't. We stack the middle, kill Gronk and Edelman's routes and let Kam and Bobby punish them whenever they come in. I can see Irvin running some stunts, but all in all, we let our basic pass rush push Brady. Key there, hit him early, hit him hard.

 

[Uncle Si]

are the Patriots really the best man cover corners in the NFL?

other than that, thought it was a solid write up. if one truly believes we wont be able to throw the ball well than i can see the pick going to the Patriots.

 

[Largent80]

You cannot use Sundays passing performance (the first 3 1/2 quarters) to handicap the game.

Those first 3 quarters are probably going to go down as the worst in RW's entire career.

R/O all day long until they stop it (if they do)....4th quarter Beast Dinner, game over and victory laps for the Hawks.

 

[jlwaters1]

I love these predictions, it's like last year, no one's using common sense. Seattle over the last 8 games are giving up less than 10 point, the packers scored 22, but also were gifted with 5 turnovers most unforced, and roughly 1/3 of their snaps were inside seattle 30 yd line. They didn't have very many sustained drives. The last 2 pats super bowls they were both "offensive beasts and iirc didn't score more than 17 points in either game. So I think max points for new England would be in the 17-19 point range. The idea that their passing defense is inpenitrible is silly, the Ravens tore then up and they aren't exactly a superstar offense.. Revis isn't the Revis of old no matter how much the media wishes it to be so. Browner is an defensive holding /pi penalty waiting to happen. I want to see several double moves on him, free yards. It should be a good game, if the running game can get going early, I think we will separate late in the game

 

[volsunghawk]

The one thing that stood out to me that I disagreed with was his incredulity at the idea of Kearse getting open against Browner. I absolutely think Kearse can do that.

 

[StoneCold]

Geez, after reading that we have no chance. Add in the fact they cheat and play dirty and we are well and truly ...

I got the feeling this guy is a Patriots fan boy. Meh.

SC

 

[Hyak]

Generally the author is pretty high on Seattle. Now I do like our chances better than he does about finding matchups that work and no question being able to run it effectively will be huge.

I also expect the defense to play a cleaner game. They missed a lot of tackles on Sunday that they normally make. In addition, I've got to believe the Hawks will be more effective rushing the passer against Brady than they were versus Rodgers.

I like everyone fawning over NE and discounting the Hawks based largely on last Sunday. I bet the Pats end up being the favorite by a couple of points.

 

[themunn]

So our passing offense has no chance, even though the Patriots

Finished 17th in passing yards allowed (behind 6 of our opponents this year whom we played 8 times)
12th in passing TDs allowed (behind 4 opponents whom we played 6 times)
15th in yards per attempt (behind 6 of our opponents whom we played 8 times)

This facing such QB giants as Geno Smith, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Andy Dalton (version PRIMETIME).

For reference we finished 1st, 2nd and 2nd.

The one stat that really destroys the argument in that though is that only TWO TEAMS allowed more pass plays of over 20 yards against them than the Patriots (62 allowed). 12% of all Seahawks pass ATTEMPTS went over 20 yards (nearly 1 in every 5 completions). They had more in absolute numbers than the Patriots (54 versus 46) despite the Patriots attempting over 150 passes more than us. Oh, and of course we topped the league with just 32 allow (6% of all attempts).

This is a matchup made in heaven for our philosophy.

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

This article is more thorough and thoughtful than most conventional-wisdom, lack-of-insight statements about our WRs that make ADB so A.

But still, in this article we get "do we really foresee Jermaine Kearse consistently separating from Brandon Browner? Or Ricardo Lockette shaking free from Kyle Arrington and a safety?" No analysis on how you could ask these same questions every week, yet we keep winning anyway. And the Patriots don't get any points on the scoreboard for number of plays without allowing WR separation. We don't have a Megatron, A.J. Green, or Julio Jones. Duh. We get it.

How about Baldwin leading all receivers on Conference Championship day, or the Seahawks having 4 players with 25+ yards vs GB's 3? Nobody expects a Kearse, Lockette, Baldwin, Willson, or Moeaki big game, but at least one of those guys always seems to come up big in crucial moments. As ADB would say, WE DO WHAT WE DO. But the lame-brains still harp on our perceived lack of talented playmakers.

We get annoyed at lazy fans trying to apply fantasy football logic to the real game, but what about professional writers and broadcasters? They have access and resources we could only dream of, yet so many constantly churn out redundant crap about 4,000-yard QBs and 1,000-yard receivers like that's the only way to win.

And I'm not falling for the Dave Damn-a-shecks and Jim Moores getting all indignant with their "who the heck was doubting you, Doug?!" Guys like them were. Still are. Guys who have nothing to lose by needling at "flaws" of professional athletes. Yeah, the Seahawks might be favored by 7 in a given game, but there are hundreds of mediots from small-market papers to mega-corp networks who go on at length about how we win despite our weak WR group, or how our defense carries our game-manager QB.

Jen Mueller wanted to know the message. These Seahawks stamp their message plain as day every time they take the field: FOOTBALL IS A TEAM GAME AND THE SEAHAWKS PLAY AS A TEAM, WIN OR LOSE. The breakdown of every component might be entertaining and informative, but when it becomes repetitive and defies the consistent results to the point of devolving into a game of antagonism, what's the point? If a race car keeps winning races, but sports writers constantly harp on the less-than-elite tire tread, wouldn't the writers look ridiculous? Wouldn't the driver get tired of that? Wouldn't fans get tired of that?

Baldwin has worked his ass off from undrafted nobody to clutch playmaker and Super Bowl champion, yet he and his WR teammates keep getting pointed at as a liability by third-rate hacks who have never worked as hard at anything and haven't achieved 1/10 of what he has in their respective field. (He's better at life than them.)

I'd think by now it would be obvious to the other-market writers and talking heads who do the matchup breakdowns that their conventional approach is insufficient when it comes to the Seahawks. Maybe if they expended just a little effort to understand and explain why the Seahawks continue to succeed without having the prototypical players at every skill position, they wouldn't look so stupid, cliché, and irrelevant. And they wouldn't need to get all bent out of shape for a player calling them on it.

But who needs comprehension of nuances when you have a job that allows you to make predictions at your discretion, but never requires you to be correct, accurate, or accountable?

/rant

 

[pehawk]

I respect the work and effort, but, Irvin is the one to attack with a wheel routes? Really?

He also misses the mark on the passing game. The Seahawks passing game is predicated on the run game. They get their WRs advantages due to deception off of the run game. They ain't going to just line up and ask Doug to beat Revis. Also, Revis will be on Kearse, not Baldwin.

 

[kjreid]

I still say that Revis and Browner will lock down the outside, but I do believe Seattle will have great opportunity out of the slot and the TE position, Patriot's safety and linebackers are very suceptible to watching the backfield and not their assignments, look for that to finally open the outside as Browner will get impatient and "try to help out". Revis will lockdown ADB and go with him everywhere. the writer does not give Irvin enough credit in how well he has been in coverage and I hope they try a runningback on a wheel route, it will have INT all over it with irvins speed and jumping ability. I am very worried about our right tackle and that will necesitate keeping Lynch in for at least a chip every passing down but I really see more scenerios where we win than we lose. the only scenerio I see that would fit a Pats win is if they can dominate the seams with Edelman and Gronk but it is highly unlikely with Kam and Wagner holding the middle. Williams and Bennett need to be huge in the middle to stop the run early.

 

[kidhawk]

I like how he says it's analyzed from every possible angle at the top of the page, but when you read it, it's honestly attacked at every possible angle to make his argument.

Without even having to think hard about it, he doesn't even talk about how when we rely on our running attack, like he says we will have to do, that teams end up having to do a little more to defend that double threat running attack, and it weakens even the best pass defenses, leaving holes that can be exploited.

Our Running game and read option will open up the passing game. This game will be close, but Lynch and Wilson will wear the Pats defense down and that will be their undoing late in the game.

 

[Hawks46]

I respect the work and effort, but, Irvin is the one to attack with a wheel routes? Really?

He also misses the mark on the passing game. The Seahawks passing game is predicated on the run game. They get their WRs advantages due to deception off of the run game. They ain't going to just line up and ask Doug to beat Revis. Also, Revis will be on Kearse, not Baldwin.

Good points. Irvin was a Safety in High School, and his coverage ability is showing. Attacking him with a RB isn't finding a weakness.

Also, like you said, we aren't the Patriots. We don't just line up and ask a WR to win a matchup. I mean, there's time on 3rd downs we do, but usually that's not our game.

I disagree with you on one thing Pehawk: Revis will definatly be on Baldwin. First, Baldwin is our leading WR. Second, he's a mismatch on Browner. Baldwin owned Browner in practice because Baldwin is so quick, and that's precisely the kind of WR that gives him trouble (TY Hilton anyone?).

I also agree that Brady doesn't throw the ball downfield a lot, and when does it's almost always Gronk or Lafell. Lafell isn't getting open against our CB's, period. Gronk we'll have to see, 2 years ago he got his against us. I'd like to think Chancellor and Wright are a bit better since then.

I don't see us passing well against the Pats at first. If they can stop us on a few runs, we won't be sustaining drives at first. Wilfork is stil disruptive in the run game. That said, Britt being back will help the run game, and hopefully help Sweezy. Peppers made Sweezy his bitch last game.

Like someone mentioned, the Pats give up the long ball. I can see us gashing them there a few times, and if we establish the run ,and start hitting PA passes then start hitting some RO plays in the 2nd half, we'll win.

On defense, they remind me of last year's Broncos. Most of thier stuff is short and intermediate, and our LBers are very good there. The key to stopping them will be : Stop Gronk (or limit him), stop the run game, and be careful of the trick formations. I don't think we need to give Brady a beating like the Giants did, but if we can smack him around a little and move him off of his spot this will help us a ton.

 

[pehawk]

We'll see, but I have a feeling the one WR Bill wants removed is Kearse. Kearse delivers the haymakers. Plus, Kearse is faster than Baldwin, he'll run right past Browner.

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

Without even having to think hard about it, he doesn't even talk about how when we rely on our running attack, like he says we will have to do, that teams end up having to do a little more to defend that double threat running attack, and it weakens even the best pass defenses, leaving holes that can be exploited.

Exactly. Look no further than the Seahawks' most recent play. GB in cover zero allowed Russell to fling it deep for the win.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

What Pats don't realize is Brandon Browner is still secretly a Seahawk.... 3rd and 10-->Pass interference defense #39. First down Seahawks!!

Besides Pats can't stop the Read Option much less the RO-POP. They'll get steamrolled by Lynch then KO'd by Wilson-to-Willson.