Mike Evans to the Digits

[Trackhawk]

Everything offense in SF is still predicated on a healthy CMC. He was looking rough at the end of last season, and it will be interesting to see how he holds up this year. Kudos to him for staying (mostly) healthy last year.

 

[Marvin49]

Everything offense in SF is still predicated on a healthy CMC. He was looking rough at the end of last season, and it will be interesting to see how he holds up this year. Kudos to him for staying (mostly) healthy last year.

People always say that, but I don't think thats true.

Yes...they rely on him HEAVILY when he's there and especially when they have a backup QB and no real healthy threats at WR, but the 49ers went to the SB with Raheem Mostert and Matt Brieda. Nobody on that team had 600 yards rushing.

 

[Trackhawk]

People always say that, but I don't think thats true.

Yes...they rely on him HEAVILY when he's there and especially when they have a backup QB and no real healthy threats at WR, but the 49ers went to the SB with Raheem Mostert and Matt Brieda. Nobody on that team had 600 yards rushing.

That was six years ago, two years before CMC joined the team.

Since he joined the team, the offense has been set up to run through him, and the success of the team has largely mirrored his production.

In his inaugural, 2022 partial year, he rushed for 746 yards, and the Niners made it to the conference championship.

In 2023 he rushed for 1400 yards, and you made it to the Super Bowl.

In 2024, he only played in four games, rushing for 200 yards, and you finished last in the division.

Last year, he rushed for 1,202 yards, and y’all did well until the end of the season when his wheels fell off.

Even when he is not featured, everything about the office of game plan is to set up to get the ball into his hands.

Since he joined the team, the success of the Niners has mirrored his success.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

In 2024, he only played in four games, rushing for 200 yards, and you finished last in the division.

There's more context there than that. 2024-25 49er's DVOA stats were #7 offense (3rd passing + 18th rushing), #26 defense, and #31 special teams. Their offense worked fine without CMC. It just couldn't carry a bad defense and special teams into the postseason without him. Overall, having Shananan and good QB play is probably more important for them than CMC.

 

[94Smith]

In 2024, he only played in four games, rushing for 200 yards, and you finished last in the division.

Yeah and the second back got injured in preseason (Elijah Mitchell) and the 3rd back got injured mid season (jordan Mason) and the 4th back rookie got injured several games later (Isaac Guerrendo). The 49ers effectively ran the ball with both Mason and Guerrendo. Mason parlayed this into a FA contract with the Vikings

 

[Trackhawk]

There's more context there than that. 2024-25 49er's DVOA stats were #7 offense (3rd passing + 18th rushing), #26 defense, and #31 special teams. Their offense worked fine without CMC. It just couldn't carry a bad defense and special teams into the postseason without him. Overall, having Shananan and good QB play is probably more important for them than CMC.

I don't disagree that Shanahan and good QB play (but I repeat myself) is more important than CMC. Still, the offense is designed to run through CMC, and whatever QB you throw back there. If CMC goes out, he isn't going to be replaced as easily as Purdy.

Now, I'm not saying Purdy is a dime a dozen, or even easily replaceable. Far from it. IMHO he's a better QB than most here give him credit for, and Trey Lance showed Shanahan needs SOMETHING to work with. Being said, Jimmy G looked damn good with a (relatively) healthy CMC. I would expect most decent or good QBs would perform similarly.

 

[Trackhawk]

Yeah and the second back got injured in preseason (Elijah Mitchell) and the 3rd back got injured mid season (jordan Mason) and the 4th back rookie got injured several games later (Isaac Guerrendo). The 49ers effectively ran the ball with both Mason and Guerrendo. Mason parlayed this into a FA contract with the Vikings

And that's kind of the thing. CMC has been unnaturally healthy for the Niners. That would make me really nervous if I was a fan. It's not like you have an iron man waiting in the wings to take over. If you lose CMC, your RB situation looks much like ours does currently. Shame (for y'all) you couldn't keep Robinson. I thought he looked promising.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

I don't disagree that Shanahan and good QB play (but I repeat myself) is more important than CMC. Still, the offense is designed to run through CMC, and whatever QB you throw back there. If CMC goes out, he isn't going to be replaced as easily as Purdy.

Now, I'm not saying Purdy is a dime a dozen, or even easily replaceable. Far from it. IMHO he's a better QB than most here give him credit for, and Trey Lance showed Shanahan needs SOMETHING to work with. Being said, Jimmy G looked damn good with a (relatively) healthy CMC. I would expect most decent or good QBs would perform similarly.

To me, if the offense works when he's out, it's not designed to run through him. If it was, it would fall apart without him (or at least take a drop out of the top 10 for one of the better efficiency stats). Purdy vs CMC is just a good question, especially when SF has one of the better backup QBs now. If SF had to give up Purdy or CMC going into next year, who would they be better offer playing without?

Personally, if I could make that choice for them, I think I'd rather the Hawks go into a season against the 49ers without Purdy. The QB position is more important overall, Purdy is less likely to miss the game due to injury, and that guy is pretty good.

 

[Marvin49]

I don't disagree that Shanahan and good QB play (but I repeat myself) is more important than CMC. Still, the offense is designed to run through CMC, and whatever QB you throw back there. If CMC goes out, he isn't going to be replaced as easily as Purdy.

Now, I'm not saying Purdy is a dime a dozen, or even easily replaceable. Far from it. IMHO he's a better QB than most here give him credit for, and Trey Lance showed Shanahan needs SOMETHING to work with. Being said, Jimmy G looked damn good with a (relatively) healthy CMC. I would expect most decent or good QBs would perform similarly.

Its weird to me that people make this argument like the 49ers weren't in the playoffs all the time WITHOUT CMC. Moreover, its like the forget what the entire Shanahan coaching tree (and for the record I mean Kyles dad) does with RBs.

I'm as big a CMC fan as the next guy, but ALL of their success isn't attributed to him.

People wanna quote 2024 as if CMC was the only difference. He wasn't.

The reason he had to be SOOO overworked this past year is that the WR position was a joke. Thats why they've already signed 2 guys there this offseason.

 

[Trackhawk]

Its weird to me that people make this argument like the 49ers weren't in the playoffs all the time WITHOUT CMC. Moreover, its like the forget what the entire Shanahan coaching tree (and for the record I mean Kyles dad) does with RBs.

I'm as big a CMC fan as the next guy, but ALL of their success isn't attributed to him.

People wanna quote 2024 as if CMC was the only difference. He wasn't.

The reason he had to be SOOO overworked this past year is that the WR position was a joke. Thats why they've already signed 2 guys there this offseason.

Two things can be true.
1 - Shanahan is perfectly capable of building a contending team and scheme in the absence of CMC, and has a history of doing so.
2 - The current iteration of Shanahan's team and scheme is built to run through CMC, and losing him mid-season would require a significant retooling of the scheme.

If anyone can do it, Shanahan has the history to suggest that he's the guy who can, but let's not pretend that it would be a simple task.

I don't argue in hyperbole. CMC isn't the only reason they had success last year, nor is he the only reason for 2024's failure, but he was a huge part of both, and we saw how easily Shanahan overcame his absence in 2024. Does he have the players to do it this year? Let's hope we don't get the opportunity to find out.

 

[FrodosFinger]

I asked AI for the Seahawk/49er rivalry image and this came out

 

[Marvin49]

I asked AI for the Seahawk/49er rivalry image and this came out View attachment 79625

You asked for a Seahawks/49ers rivalry image and it gave you Vince Carter?


Weird.

 

[FrodosFinger]

You asked for a Seahawks/49ers rivalry image and it gave you Vince Carter?


Weird.

Tea bag

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

Two things can be true.
1 - Shanahan is perfectly capable of building a contending team and scheme in the absence of CMC, and has a history of doing so.
2 - The current iteration of Shanahan's team and scheme is built to run through CMC, and losing him mid-season would require a significant retooling of the scheme.

If anyone can do it, Shanahan has the history to suggest that he's the guy who can, but let's not pretend that it would be a simple task.

I don't argue in hyperbole. CMC isn't the only reason they had success last year, nor is he the only reason for 2024's failure, but he was a huge part of both, and we saw how easily Shanahan overcame his absence in 2024. Does he have the players to do it this year? Let's hope we don't get the opportunity to find out.

Occam's razor there is Shanahan called more plays to get CMC the ball and probably added a few with CMC in mind rather than significantly changing his scheme to suit a highly versatile RB and then significantly changing it back when he was out.

I don't get this discussion. To me, the reason someone makes the initial statement of the offense running through CMC is to highlight a reason why 49er fans should be concerned about the 2026-2027 season given CMC's recent injuries. If I'm wrong about this, I'm wrong about this, but I don't think I am. The 49er fans eye test didn't agree with that premise and neither did DVOA. Why not just say "Good point" and attack their hopes with something more concrete? The 49ers probably have crossed into contender purgatory of being too good to blow it up and also not good enough to truly contend anymore. Concerns can still range anywhere from struggles of their defense, them being an aging team, it being rare for a team to miss a championship window and getting the juice to come back to win it all a half decade later, and so on. I don't even like trying to antagonize rival fans but if you're gonna do it, it seems like there are way better ways.

 

[Trackhawk]

Occam's razor there is Shanahan called more plays to get CMC the ball and probably added a few with CMC in mind rather than significantly changing his scheme to suit a highly versatile RB and then significantly changing it back when he was out.

I don't get this discussion. To me, the reason someone makes the initial statement of the offense running through CMC is to highlight a reason why 49er fans should be concerned about the 2026-2027 season given CMC's recent injuries. The 49er fans eye test didn't agree with that and neither did DVOA. Why not just say "Good point" and attack their hopes with something more concrete? The 49ers may very well have crossed into contender purgatory of being too good to draft high and not good enough to make another SB. Concerns can still range anywhere from struggles of their defense, Shanahan coming up short in big games, them being an aging team, or it being rare for a team to miss a championship window and getting the juice to come back to win it all a half decade later. I don't even like trying to antagonize rival fans but if you're gonna do it, it seems like there are way better ways.

The last time CMC went out mid-season, the Niners went 6-11. They went 12-5 the prior season, with a fully healthy CMC. I'd say that's a pretty concrete argument that, eye test or not, they struggled when he went out.

They have a more complete and mature team now, and can likely weather the storm better, but it's still a significant concern.

The Niners are schematically built to run the offense through CMC. When he fell off last year, they fell apart, and that is despite Robinson looking good in relief duty. When he went out in '24, they had their worst year in recent memory. Correlation vs causation and all that, it's still a reason to be concerned, if you are a Niner fan.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

"Insane $". M'Kay.

View attachment 79440

Very manageable contract….both in guarantees and cap hit.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

The last time CMC went out mid-season, the Niners went 6-11. They went 12-5 the prior season, with a fully healthy CMC. I'd say that's a pretty concrete argument that, eye test or not, they struggled when he went out.

They have a more complete and mature team now, and can likely weather the storm better, but it's still a significant concern.

The Niners are schematically built to run the offense through CMC. When he fell off last year, they fell apart, and that is despite Robinson looking good in relief duty. When he went out in '24, they had their worst year in recent memory. Correlation vs causation and all that, it's still a reason to be concerned, if you are a Niner fan.

They went 5-5 to start the year w/o CMC and 1-3 when he returned. They averaged slightly more total rushing yards before McCaffrey returned than when he was available that year. If the offense is that tailored to CMC, you would expect it to improve with his return. If the offense improved with his return, and we're measuring how well an offense does with just wins and losses (it doesn't make sense to do this but you are so w/e), you would expect the 49ers to win more games. They didn't.

(By years end, they went 5-9 vs 1-3 for still a lower win % with CMC. The end of the year losses should get taken with a grain of salt with them being out of the playoff hunt by then and their other RB got hurt. It is funny this half-baked point based on wins and losses still stands even when including them. Again, using wins and losses as a metric by itself has a ton of problems which is why also looking at stats like DVOA is helpful for stuff like this. No one in their right mind would argue the 49ers are better off without CMC until his play drops off a cliff).

 

[Trackhawk]

They went 5-5 to start the year w/o CMC and 1-3 when he returned. They averaged slightly more total rushing yards before McCaffrey returned than when he was available that year. If the offense is that tailored to CMC, you would expect it to improve with his return. If the offense improved with his return, and we're measuring how well an offense does with just wins and losses (it doesn't make sense to do this but you are so w/e), you would expect the 49ers to win more games. They didn't.

(By years end, they went 5-9 vs 1-3 for still a lower win % with CMC. The end of the year losses should get taken with a grain of salt with them being out of the playoff hunt by then. It is funny this half-baked point based on wins and losses still stands even when including them. Again, using wins and losses as a metric by itself has a ton of problems which why also looking at stats like DVOA is helpful for stuff like this).


View attachment 79655

CMC was not healthy for any of the 6-11, 2024 season. Sure he played and he was tantalizingly close, but he wasn’t healthy. Certainly didn’t pass the eye test. If anything, playing him was probably worse than if he had just stayed on IR for the season.

Rushing an injured player back, instead of making him take the necessary time off to heal, is kind of on point for Shanahan.

CMC was healthy in the bookend 12-5, 2023 and 2025 seasons.

They are building a team that won’t be as reliant on a healthy CMC as they were in 2024. It remains to be seen if they will also adjust their scheme. Hopefully we don’t get the chance to find out if they can scheme around a hobbled CMC this time around.

 

[Trackhawk]

Year. YDS. YPC. TDs

2025	SF	311	1,202	3.9	10
2024	SF	50	202	4.0	0
2023	SF	272	1,459	5.4	14

2025 12-5
2024 6-11
2023 12-5

You can try to DVOA and eye test your way out of it, but the Niners weren’t just worse when CMC was hurt, they were helpless, and whatever they did to make up for it didn’t work.

They’ve bolstered the offense, but if he goes down, so will their team. They did far better with a healthy CMC and a backup QB than they did with a healthy starting QB, and an injured CMC. If that doesn’t tell you where the focal point of their offense is, then I can’t help you.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

Year. YDS. YPC. TDs

2025	SF	311	1,202	3.9	10
2024	SF	50	202	4.0	0
2023	SF	272	1,459	5.4	14

2025 12-5
2024 6-11
2023 12-5

You can try to DVOA and eye test your way out of it, but the Niners weren’t just worse when CMC was hurt, they were helpless, and whatever they did to make up for it didn’t work.

They’ve bolstered the offense, but if he goes down, so will their team. They did far better with a healthy CMC and a backup QB than they did with a healthy starting QB, and an injured CMC. If that doesn’t tell you where the focal point of their offense is, then I can’t help you.

Repeating it won't make it make sense. Correlation =/= causation and all your saying is the opposite is true. Just look at anything that tells you a little about how that outcome was achieved. You can look at run/pass splits. Overall, 49ers offense has been within 1-3% of 50/50 rush/pass splits with McCaffrey with passing usually being the higher one of the two. (2024 was the highest passing due to their defense collapsing late in the season and the offense playing catch-up - just look at the passing and rushing attempts in that 2024 regular season table). These days, the best offenses tend to be balanced so that tracks for one of the better offensive coaches. The splits say they run balanced offense - not a fully committed rushing offense featuring a running back that can't function without. Unless their defense is leaking like a sieve for multiple games, the splits say this whether CMC is back there or not. They want to run the ball because running the ball frees up the pass and vice/versa and they'll do it with or without CMC.

Context is everything, man. In 2024, CMC probably was further from 100% than he usually has been. I agree. They didn't get much from CMC even when he did play, lost Jordan Mason for 4 games, and still put up good numbers on offense. They did drop from 1st or 2nd or w/e they were in 2023 but still cracked the top 10 in offense in DVOA overall in 2024. They got CMC back for 2025 and were top 5 again. CMC is CMC and Shanahan is Shanahan. Those guys are good at what they do. If you prefer offensive counting stats over efficiency stats, they probably did well in most of those too, but I'm not going to reference a weaker stat to make my point here. Regardless, the numbers say the 49ers have been good offensively without CMC and great with him.

W/L records are a team stat that includes defense and special teams (no one is going to say Joe Burrow was mediocre in 2024 because the Bengals finished 9-8, right?). Getting not much from McCaffrey was just one part of why their entire team was unsuccessful. Their special teams sucked. Their defense was flirting with mediocrity and then fell apart. After another RB injury, their running game fell apart after working relatively well for half a season without CMC. If you wanna try to isolate what CMC does for them, at least look at offense. Offensive DVOA will look at the offense as a whole instead of the entire team and do it better than most counting stats can. I know the 49ers sucked overall in 2024. It was glorious. I know CMC was injured for 3/4 of the year. I also know correlation =/= causation, individual performance is more complicated than W's and L's, and their offense was still pretty good. Just look a little deeper than the surface.