kearly's dream draft 5.0 - thinking outside the box edition

[kearly]

Edit: Seattle signed Cliff Avril while I was compiling this, which pretty much proves my point about wanting to address DE in FA. I had us signing Abraham, but this works too.

Note: (I would sign John Abraham in free agency as a 1 year stopgap for LEO). In order to mix things up, I will not include Ryan Swope, John Simon, or Armonty Bryant in this version- although I would surely draft all of them if I had the chance. In fact I'm going to try to go with mostly new names in this one, so expect a few surprises:

2nd round: Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
3rd round: Menelik Watson, T, FSU
4th round: Lavar Edwards, DE/DT, LSU
5th round: Micah Hyde, CB, Iowa
5th round: Mark Harrison, WR, Rutgers
6th round: Denard Robinson, RB/WR/KR, Michigan
7th round: Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas
7th round: Courtney Gardner, WR, Sierra

UDFA targets:

Quinton Dial, DE, Alabama
Jordan Rogers, QB, Vanderbilt
Cooper Taylor, S, Richmond
Abry Jones, DT, Georgia
Brandon Hepburn, LB, Florida A&M

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Zach Ertz really hurt his stock at the combine with some worrisome measurements and an unremarkable performance. He still has some of the very best tape of the TEs in this draft, and he has the kind of well rounded skillset Seattle could really go for. He's a steal at the end of round 2, and I think there is a substantial chance he will fall into the late 2nd range. His acquisition also gives Seattle the insurance policy they need if they want to approach Zach Miller with a restructure attempt.

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Menelik Watson was initially tabbed as a mid round pick before a wave of hype over his athleticism put him in the late 1st round discussion. Then he pretty much tanked his combine, with a series of athletic performances that were shockingly below average. Watson is new to football and was really banking on his athleticism to carry his stock. Post combine- I think he is probably back in the round 3 or 4 range, but we'll see. I think he's impressive enough on tape athletically that I'd happily pull the trigger on him in the late 3rd as a high upside prospect.

While I am personally a fan of Breno Giacomini, he is a free agent after this season. So is Paul McQuistan. Will Seattle pay $$$ to keep them around while they have to pay players like Browner, Thurmond, Baldwin, and Chancellor? They may decide against it. That might explain why there is a rumor out there suggesting they like tackle Jordan Mills earlier than you'd expect.

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Lavar Edwards played defensive end for LSU, but his size (6'4", 277), length (35.5" arms), 40 time (4.80), and athleticism are highly reminiscent of Jason Jones. This is a blind pick- because I have no idea how Edwards would translate inside. He might dominate, or he might flounder. He has the measurables of an elite DT/DE hybrid though, and while his tape doesn't blow you away, he plays the run well and plays with high effort. I would expect Edwards to be pretty high on Seattle's draft board, but I would be patient and wait til round four to get him. He probably won't be our savior in 2013, but he's an interesting option with good upside.

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Micah Hyde is a well rounded, highly under-rated CB who will slip in this draft due to there being a ton of corners running in the 4.4s. Hyde ran a 4.56, about the same time that Richard Sherman had. Not many NFL teams use slower CBs, but Seattle does. This is a proactive pick since Thurmond, Browner, and Chancellor will all be free agents next season.

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Mark Harrison is one of the better tall receivers in this draft. He runs in the 4.4s at 6'3", 231 pounds (Andre Johnson type measurements). Harrison is not a project either- he has pretty good tape and can really accelerate after the catch. He was overshadowed by Mohamed Sanu and Brandon Coleman the last couple years, but when they leaned on him in the past he was an explosive deep threat receiver. You can read more on Harrison here. Seattle still needs a 2nd big receiver as Sidney Rice insurance, the same role that TO and Edwards were brought in for last year.

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I see Denard Robinson as more of a RB than WR, and with Leon Washington gone Seattle has openings both at WR and RB. Robinson is mildly redundant with Percy Harvin on board, but I just can't say no to a player with Robinson's physical talent in the 6th round. Robinson runs one of the smoothest and shiftiest 4.43 forties you will see. He is a natural runner and I think you could fit him in a Leon Washington type role and not lose much. If he turns into a Percy Harvin type WR down the road, that's a nice bonus as well.

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Does Knile Davis last this long after a 4.37 forty? He probably shouldn't, but he might. That's how rough his last two college seasons were. In 2010, Davis looked like a breakout star in a power zone styled running game that resembled our own. He has megastar potential down the road in Tom Cable's system, but he's also a big enough risk to possibly last this long. Though Davis ran a very fast time, I think he's similar to Ahman Green in that he's more of a power runner than a speedy runner. Green also had a surprisingly fast 40 time but didn't play ultra fast.

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Courtney Gardner is another high risk high upside project. I think he's at least as gifted physically as Cordarrelle Patterson. 6'3", 215, 4.4s. He has agility after the catch that you never see from players that size. He wasn't invited to the combine, which hints that the NFL does not think he's a draft pick worthy player. Seattle could wait til UDFA to get him, but I'd rather not risk it.

~

Quinton Dial is an athletic 318 pound defensive end that was essentially Nick Saban's Red Bryant at Alabama last season. Dial moves much better than Red Bryant does at a similar size. I'd be willing to spend a draft pick on Dial to see what he can do for us, but most draft projections indicate that I won't have to.

Jordan Rodgers may not be a classic read option QB, but neither is Russell Wilson. Both are classic point guard types instead, using their quickness and mobility to extend plays. Rodgers seems like a quality prospect, but is being overlooked because he's 6'1" and because his older brother (Aaron Rodgers) casts quite the shadow. Of course, Jordan only stands 1" shorter than his brother. Does 1" really make that much difference? In a very weak year for late round QBs, Rodgers could make a nice UDFA get to compete as a backup.

In terms of size, strength, explosiveness, and athleticism, Cooper Taylor is a lot like a faster Brandon Browner. Taylor played strong safety at Richmond University (a division II school), but has the toolset to play several different positions in Seattle's secondary. A draftable player, I have him as a UDFA target in this version.

I think Abry Jones will be "just a guy" in the NFL, like a poor man's Allen Branch. But with Jason Jones gone, and Allen Branch/Clinton McDonald both remaining in free agency, Seattle is going to need to stockpile some bodies at DT. Abry Jones is a good choice. He isn't spectacular, but he's well rounded and a natural football player.

Brandon Hepburn is just a name out of a hat with sub 4.7 speed and late round credentials. I highlight him only because he's the type of linebacker I expect Seattle to pursue in this draft. A roster fringe type. I could see them targeting AJ Klein if Klein slides into the very late rounds.

So why so much offense?

In 2011, the Seahawks finished with statistically a top 10 defense and a bottom 5 offense. It was widely expected that Seattle would draft heavily for offense that year, and most mock drafts outside of SDB had Seattle going WR or OL in the 1st round. Completely understandable.

Then the actual draft happened. 10 draft picks. Just 3 were for offense, and 7 went to defense. WR wasn't drafted at all, and guard wasn't taken until the 7th round. A lot of people questioned going so defense heavy when the team clearly needed help on offense far more. Today, nobody questions that draft. It was easily the best draft of any team in 2012, IMO.

The Percy Harvin trade tells me that Seattle intends to win games with offense in 2013. Why not make moves to solidify it further? Imagine Lynch, Rice, Harvin, Miller, Ertz in our two TE formation. Is there a better collection of weapons in the NFL? Harrison would be a nice weapon off the bench and Davis, Watson, Robinson and Gardner all offer massive home run potential down the road.

Further, there just isn't great value in round two and three for defense. Where you do see value is areas like offensive line, wide receiver, and tight end. With almost no chance for an impact 3-tech at #56, Seattle should and probably will turn their focus to adding players that might not have played DT but have the tools to be Jason Jones types in the middle rounds. Guys like Lavar Edwards, Malliciah Goodman, Joe Kruger, John Simon. It's not a great situation at DT, but I think the Harvin trade coupled with their lack of urgency for free agent DTs signals that Seattle is fine with punting a surefire answer at 3-tech for a year and gambling with a later pick instead.

With Cliff Avril signed at LEO, there aren't really any needs on defense left. It would be nice to add some bodies at DT and in the secondary, but this isn't a top priority. Pete Carroll's tone regarding linebacker makes it sound like a late round or UDFA priority. He seems happy to go with Smith/Morgan at WILL next year, and to be fair, both are very fast linebackers and have played well so far.

With this type of draft, Seattle takes a bit of a gamble at 3-tech, but I think at a minimum we'd hold steady in the pass rush and enter next year targeting DT as a top priority. We'd still win a ton of games with an offense that on paper should be #1 in the NFL.

 

[Lynch Mob]

So we just act like we don't need a starting weak side linebacker?

 

[McGruff]

So we just act like we don't need a starting weak side linebacker?

We already have a starting weak side linebacker.

 

[sutz]

Well, I don't think they'll draft OL in the 3rd, but hell, what do I know?

Love your write-ups, Kip. Always well thought out and supported logically and with video proofs, even when you're thinking "outside the box."

Keep it up!

:th2thumbs:

 

[Happypuppy]

I agree on the TE in the 2nd, I jut don't think he will drop that far but we will see. It's a need as we have 2 and the ex basketball player. I have to check some of these guys out more

 

[chris98251]

I would have to disagree with loading in more offense, we did that last year with Wilson and Turbin, I think the one spot we would target may be TE, other then that defense. Quinn may have some ideas on how to use some of the guys we had as depth and on the practice squad as well which makes making any conclusions iffy.

Once again as fans we are throwing dice and making best guess situations. Kearly really appreciate the write up, just think we will look on the other side of the ball.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Would think they'll draft a WILL at some point, although I'd love Ertz at 56.

 

[Wasteland2112]

I'd be stoked with Ertz at 56, if you give me Sio Moore in the 3rd!

 

[gargantual]

With Cliff Avril signed at LEO, there aren't really any needs on defense left.

What am I missing? We needed to improve our pass rush and so far have only signed a LEO to step in for Clem. Maybe this does that if he's ready to go on Week One, but that seems far-fetched. And what about Jason Jones' interior pressure role?

It seems like we still need at least 1 or 2 more pieces...or maybe even 3 (Leroy Hill's replacement).

 

[gargantual]

Then again (like was alluded to in the OP and in other threads) the improvement Harvin adds to our offense (in higher points generated & taking a higher percentage of the Time of Possession) should be enough of to boost to our Ds effectiveness out of the park.

 

[GCrow]

For the first time i'm starting to really like the Denard Robinson pick. IMO think it dumb to have him as a WR instead of a RB. Be great here in the Leon Washington role - 3rd back and returns kicks.

 

[JSeahawks]

Menelik Watson is a guy i've been chasing for 2 years. I was really hoping he'd land on the Ducks last year. He's going to be an excellent player. Unfortunatly I think he'll get drafted late 1st round or high 2nd round though.

 

[hawkfan68]

Not bad Kearly. Can't argue too much about your choices. However, I think the Seahawks will address DT or LB positions at 2nd round. I believe that Ertz will be available when they pick at #56.

Here's what I'm thinking they do -

2nd round - Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
3rd round - Matt Scott, QB, Arizona
4th round - Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego St
5th round - Chris Jones, DT, Bowling Green
5th round - Marcus Davis, WR, Va Tech
6th round - Jordan Mills, OT, La Tech
7th round - Devonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina
7th round - David Bass, DE, Missouri Western State

 

[FlyingGreg]

I'd love Ertz in the 2nd round. Adding a tight end like that to this offense would make it insane.

Imagine an empty set with Rice, Harvin, Tate, Baldwin and Ertz...

 

[kearly]

I think Mike Morgan and Malcolm Smith are going to be next years' Moffitt/Sweezy. At WLB, obviously. Seattle will probably make a token move at LB, but those two are the frontrunners and will likely split time just like Hill/Smith did last season. You heard it here first.

As far as Ertz, everything I've read suggests he's probably a mid to late 2nd at this point. I don't know if Watson reaches the late 3rd- but I would be surprised if he went 1st round now. His combine was extremely disappointing, and this was a guy that was really banking on his athleticism to get noticed.

I misspoke when I said there weren't any needs on defense left. What I should have said was that we aren't fixing the 3-tech problem this year without a ton of luck, and outside of that, we don't have any needs on the defensive side. Seattle is in a good position to just go for the players they like without worrying about needs, and the value of this draft is a lot better on the offensive side than the defensive side.

I actually like some of the "outside the box" 3-tech options in the mid rounds. Simon, Edwards, Goodman, Kruger. All are uncertain as prospects, but all of them have the talent to translate to a Jason Jones type role. Edwards is the one I'm betting Seattle likes the most- of course I personally hope they draft Simon instead.

One other thing- Seattle has the NFL's most expensive offense- $82 million in cap hit for 2013- which is pretty mindblowing when our QB makes 40 times less than he should. Drafting heavily for offense adds more low cost talent to an area of the team in serious need of trimming down.

 

[Hawkscanner]

I'd be stoked with Ertz at 56, if you give me Sio Moore in the 3rd!

Absolutely ... or Zavier Gooden. The team just cannot to walk out of this draft without another WILL candidate IMO.

And Denard Robinson? I'm just not on board with that pick. The reports on him coming out of the Senior Bowl were just not good. He was reportedly having a ton of problems handling punts and kickoffs IIRC.

 

[kearly]

I'd be stoked with Ertz at 56, if you give me Sio Moore in the 3rd!

Absolutely ... or Zavier Gooden. The team just cannot to walk out of this draft without another WILL candidate IMO.

Mike Morgan was a really good player last year. I was blown away to learn he weighs just 226. Malcolm Smith can play too. They weren't 7th/UDFA because they lacked talent.

I know it was just one game- one PRESEASON game, but Allen Bradford really impressed me. I think the fact that Seattle got him on the 53 man roster by the end of the season speaks volumes.

I do think they will add a linebacker, but Carroll's tone regarding the position strongly indicated that he is satisfied with the status quo and is looking for competition, not a replacement, for his "USC backup crew." The guy I'd watch for is Zaviar Gooden if he lasts long enough or maybe AJ Klein in rounds 5-7. I do not think they'll draft linebacker in rounds 2-4.

 

[kearly]

I remember how Seattle surprisingly avoided WR like the plague last year and then said afterward that they thought the 2012 WR class was pretty weak. It was universally accepted that Seattle needed a WR, but they still passed on them.

I see LB as being this year's WR draft problem. Sure, WLB is an area for upgrade, but is there anyone out there that can make a reasonable case to be that upgrade while also having the speed Carroll wants? Maybe Arthur Brown, if Pete still loves him. Otherwise, not really. I think Seattle is fine with "punting" the WLB option to 2014, just like they did at WR last year. Going with Smith/Morgan/Bradford/late round pick will hardly kill our defense. We had a mediocre Leroy Hill manning that spot last season, so we'll be okay. I wouldn't at all rule out Smith/Morgan being a pretty nice combo either. Both have speed in the mid 4.4s and are very good football players- they are just a touch undersized. I've wondered for a while if Seattle passed on the superior Lavonte David last year because they felt they already had Lavonte David in Smith/Morgan.

 

[QuahHawk]

In an offense heavy draft I'd like your plan but have some guys I really want too. If we don't take a TE until the 4th or later I'd like to see Fauria or Toilio picked, both are huge guys that would be good redzone targets.

2. TE Jordan Reed
3. LB John Bostic
4. WR Aaron Dobson
5. DT
5. RB
6. K
7. OL
7. QB

 

[rjdriver]

Wow. Ertz at 56? That would be great. He really must have tanked the combine. I remember him at one point being in a lot , if not most, of first round mocks. There was one who had him 19 to the NYG. I ish a killer DT would somehow fall to us.