I would draft based off of these Stats

[ScipioAfricanus]

Seahawks 2022 Season
32 NFL teams
Offense
9th best Scoring offense in the league (9/32)
12/32 Passing YPG
18/32 Rushing YPG

Defense
8th worst Scoring defense in the league (24/32)
13/32 Passing YPG allowed
30/32 Rushing YPG allowed

Other stats
31/32 in opponents TOP (terrible rush defense the culprit)
27/32 Penalties per game
27/32 Opponent 3rd conversion %
30/32 Sacks allowed
8/32 Sacks per game (actually better than I had thought)

4 draft picks in the top 52 / 5 picks in the top 83 (rounds 1 thru 3)

To me those stats tell the whole story. Offensively, you've got a Top 10 QB, your starting two WR's are 16/19 in YPG. A 1,000 yard back in Walker and two Rookie Tackles that will only get better. The offense needs interior OL and IMO, a 3rd WR. I would look for that 3rd WR in Free Agency because he can make a bigger impact immediately.
But those first 3 picks (5, 20, 37) HAVE to be used on Edge rusher, DT, LB. I would love to use the 83rd pick(3rd round)to get the Ohio State Center Wypler(He's only a Jr and young) - I think he continues to improve his overall strength. Technique is certainly not an issue. That leaves only the 52nd pick(Rd 2). I would use that on the best CB/S available or another interior Olineman.

This team IS a playoff team with an atrocious run defense. Geno will be signed to a 3 year deal (maybe a 4th option year) - 28 mil/year. That $$ can be spread out over the contract - Franchise tag makes no sense. Too big of a 1 yr hit. The influx of 3 top 37 picks to the defense will make an instant impact. And a cheap impact. By 2024(If Geno continues to play Top 10 football) this team will be dangerous.
But key priorities are Shore up defense. Shore up Oline( way too many sacks allowed) - and there's some $$ to spend on some mid level FA's that can give the team a talent infusion and depth. IMO - I think the Hawks are looking at potentially an 11-6 record next year. They gave away games to inferior teams due to terrible defense.

 

[Hawk4life]

If you had asked this same question last year, we had a top 5 QB. The issue with Geno is that his motor (as PC would say) doesn't put enough points on the board. We started investing in the o line with Cross and Lucas so it seems logical to protect a QB that can put more points on the board.

I'm not disagreeing with what you suggest but we would have to have a LOB equivalent defense and a Marshawn equivalent RB. Keeping Geno means our defense will have to provide points.

 

[Mick063]

If you had asked this same question last year, we had a top 5 QB. The issue with Geno is that his motor (as PC would say) doesn't put enough points on the board. We started investing in the o line with Cross and Lucas so it seems logical to protect a QB that can put more points on the board.

I'm not disagreeing with what you suggest but we would have to have a LOB equivalent defense and a Marshawn equivalent RB. Keeping Geno means our defense will have to provide points.

Of course, the defense has to contribute. EVERY defense has to contribute. That isn't on Geno. That is on the defense.

You want a quarterback to carry the team. I don't. Pete certainly doesn't. Pete wants the defense and run game to carry the team. That is what I want to. Think back to Seattle's only championship. Did the quarterback carry the team?

Nope. Not by a long shot. Geno is plenty good enough to drive the bus. Plenty good enough.

 

[Hawk4life]

Of course, the defense has to contribute. EVERY defense has to contribute. That isn't on Geno. That is on the defense.

You want a quarterback to carry the team. I don't. Pete certainly doesn't. Pete wants the defense and run game to carry the team. That is what I want to. Think back to Seattle's only championship. Did the quarterback carry the team?

Nope. Not by a long shot. Geno is plenty good enough to drive the bus. Plenty good enough.

Like I said, we will need a LOB equivalent defense and a Marshawn equivalent RB.

When we drafted Russ it was because PC was focused on defense and ignored our terrible O line. Drafting Cross and Lucas leads me to believe he is headed in a more offensive direction.

Nothing is impossible, we are a playoff team and adding an elite QB and improving the defense could be enough for us to reach the super bowl. If we stick with Geno and go all in for the defensive model expect a couple of years before it develops and Geno ain't getting any younger. I do think it will be a waste of DK's talent if we keep Geno.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

Of course, the defense has to contribute. EVERY defense has to contribute. That isn't on Geno. That is on the defense.

You want a quarterback to carry the team. I don't. Pete certainly doesn't. Pete wants the defense and run game to carry the team. That is what I want to. Think back to Seattle's only championship. Did the quarterback carry the team?

Nope. Not by a long shot. Geno is plenty good enough to drive the bus. Plenty good enough.

The league has moved progressively toward favoring offense in the last decade.

I’m not sure even a LOB defense could make up for an average QB these days. Isn’t that where the 9ers found themselves with Jimmy G?

 

[LickMyNuts]

Seahawks 2022 Season
32 NFL teams
Offense
9th best Scoring offense in the league (9/32)
12/32 Passing YPG
18/32 Rushing YPG

Defense
8th worst Scoring defense in the league (24/32)
13/32 Passing YPG allowed
30/32 Rushing YPG allowed

Other stats
31/32 in opponents TOP (terrible rush defense the culprit)
27/32 Penalties per game
27/32 Opponent 3rd conversion %
30/32 Sacks allowed
8/32 Sacks per game (actually better than I had thought)

4 draft picks in the top 52 / 5 picks in the top 83 (rounds 1 thru 3)

To me those stats tell the whole story. Offensively, you've got a Top 10 QB, your starting two WR's are 16/19 in YPG. A 1,000 yard back in Walker and two Rookie Tackles that will only get better. The offense needs interior OL and IMO, a 3rd WR. I would look for that 3rd WR in Free Agency because he can make a bigger impact immediately.
But those first 3 picks (5, 20, 37) HAVE to be used on Edge rusher, DT, LB. I would love to use the 83rd pick(3rd round)to get the Ohio State Center Wypler(He's only a Jr and young) - I think he continues to improve his overall strength. Technique is certainly not an issue. That leaves only the 52nd pick(Rd 2). I would use that on the best CB/S available or another interior Olineman.

This team IS a playoff team with an atrocious run defense. Geno will be signed to a 3 year deal (maybe a 4th option year) - 28 mil/year. That $$ can be spread out over the contract - Franchise tag makes no sense. Too big of a 1 yr hit. The influx of 3 top 37 picks to the defense will make an instant impact. And a cheap impact. By 2024(If Geno continues to play Top 10 football) this team will be dangerous.
But key priorities are Shore up defense. Shore up Oline( way too many sacks allowed) - and there's some $$ to spend on some mid level FA's that can give the team a talent infusion and depth. IMO - I think the Hawks are looking at potentially an 11-6 record next year. They gave away games to inferior teams due to terrible defense.

I think you nailed it. The good and bad news is that we need help all over the front 7. I think that gives the Seahawks more flexibility in the first two rounds.

 

[Hawk4life]

The league has moved progressively toward favoring offense in the last decade.

I’m not sure even a LOB defense could make up for an average QB these days. Isn’t that where the 9ers found themselves with Jimmy G?

Agreed. How close do you think McCaffrey and the 9ers defense is compared to LOB/Marshawn? I think I may be a little biased.

And fortunatly for us, Russ turned out to be a bit than more than what we needed, evasion, able to take a hit and hold onto the ball, hand off to the beast and complete a pass on the run.

It's not a coincidence that his greatest failure was a quick pass from the pocket.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

Agreed. How close do you think McCaffrey and the 9ers defense is compared to LOB/Marshawn? I think I may be a little biased.

Given the scheme… McCaffrey with a side of Debbo / Aiyuk equal a Beast. The defense isn’t as talented in the secondary, but the front seven is (heresy aside) arguably equal or better.

 

[jammerhawk]

ScipioAfricanus​

In your OP you advise the team has 4 draft picks in the first 83, it's actually 5 Picks. Those picks are: #5, # 20, #37, #52, & #83. After that the present picks in rounds 4-6 before are: #123 (4th), #153 (5th), #156 (5th), #198 (6th), and #237 for but these picks will change for the worse when the compensatory picks are announced. Those comp picks will commence at the ends of rounds 3 -7.

Of course you draft on past season's performance, roster needs, cap situation, etc.,

The team has obvious needs on D and looking at the 2023 DC there are some big areas of need at several positions. They have some obvious areas of need.

JS likes to maximize the value of each pick but has stated they are looking at a few areas but will prefer to draft the best player available BPA. I could see the team once again trading down to gain more value including future draft picks.

Just saying.

 

[Scout]

If JS follows the double dip strategy of 2022 I expect him to double dip at DL and off ball LB for the 2023 draft.

It just make sense because you need to find starters but also depth.

 

[GemCity]

I think you nailed it. The good and bad news is that we need help all over the front 7. I think that gives the Seahawks more flexibility in the first two rounds.

I agree. He nailed it. Least of our immediate needs but, I’m kind of hoping there’s a project QB JS and PC love.

Not to sabotage our glaring need on defense but, it seems like a very opportune time to bring one under Geno.

 

[sutz]

Not a bad plan, but I wouldn't draft a DB that high. We're not that weak there, and Pete is the DB whisperer. We seem to do our best work on 4th/5th round DBs. Other than that, can't argue with DL first, OC/G next and a WR3 with some speed and hands.

 

[Mick063]

The league has moved progressively toward favoring offense in the last decade.

I’m not sure even a LOB defense could make up for an average QB these days. Isn’t that where the 9ers found themselves with Jimmy G?

I prefer Geno to Jimmy G. by a bunch. Jimmy G. never sniffed a hint of semi-MVP talk. He never came close to leading the league in completion percentage. He was never put in a position to compensate for a bottom five run defense. You are comparing apples and oranges. Further, the comparison of the Forty Niners against the Eagles isn't a good representative sample. At all. You watched the game. Injuries to key SF players at key times. Additionally, the LOB never gave up drive sustaining penalties at the clip that SF did. Further, you are overlooking the front seven of the Eagles that is clearly demonstrating a championship level defense. It isn't like defense went away in the last playoff weekend. Chris Jones says hello. He took over the game. Not Burrow or Mahomes at the end. Jones did.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

I prefer Geno to Jimmy G. by a bunch. Jimmy G. never sniffed a hint of semi-MVP talk. He never came close to leading the league in completion percentage. He was never put in a position to compensate for a bottom five run defense. You are comparing apples and oranges. Further, the comparison of the Forty Niners against the Eagles isn't a good representative sample. At all. You watched the game. Injuries to key SF players at key times. Additionally, the LOB never gave up drive sustaining penalties at the clip that SF did. Further, you are overlooking the front seven of the Eagles that is clearly demonstrating a championship level defense. It isn't like defense went away in the last playoff weekend. Chris Jones says hello. He took over the game. Not Burrow or Mahomes at the end. Jones did.

Not discounting defense at all.

To be a true SB contender seems you need a balance between your offense and defense that averages out above top ten.

What kills you is average and Jimmy G sure seems to be the definition when you factor in play under pressure and durability / availability.

Nothing in Geno’s history prior to last year says he’s an above average QB either. I don’t claim to know if has truly taken a leap forward or we’re looking at a one year wonder, statistical aberration.

I do know I wouldn’t pay him as a franchise QB to find out. Maybe if he was younger and/or the overall roster was better, I’d gamble. At this point the risk outweighs the reward.

 

[BASF]

If you had asked this same question last year, we had a top 5 QB. The issue with Geno is that his motor (as PC would say) doesn't put enough points on the board. We started investing in the o line with Cross and Lucas so it seems logical to protect a QB that can put more points on the board.

I'm not disagreeing with what you suggest but we would have to have a LOB equivalent defense and a Marshawn equivalent RB. Keeping Geno means our defense will have to provide points.

This observation is predicated on what exactly? The Seahawks were tied for the fourth most passing touchdowns in the league in '22. The teams we were tied with had more attempts than we did except for the 49ers. Mostly because their team is full of YAC guys who inflated the touchdown passes (they had the sixth lowest pass attempts and the sixth highest yards after catch). Geno also suffered several drops from DK in the red zone that lowered our scoring significantly. If anything our running game was the slacker points wise as we were tied for the sixth least rushing touchdowns in the league.

 

[Mick063]

Not discounting defense at all.

To be a true SB contender seems you need a balance between your offense and defense that averages out above top ten.

What kills you is average and Jimmy G sure seems to be the definition when you factor in play under pressure and durability / availability.

Nothing in Geno’s history prior to last year says he’s an above average QB either. I don’t claim to know if has truly taken a leap forward or we’re looking at a one year wonder, statistical aberration.

I do know I wouldn’t pay him as a franchise QB to find out. Maybe if he was younger and/or the overall roster was better, I’d gamble. At this point the risk outweighs the reward.

Look. I'm a science guy. Professionally.

That means I give a great deal of credence to quantifiable measures. Give me a numerical representation of "play under pressure" and show me a relative "side by side" comparison between Geno and Jimmy G. Give me something I can measure with a number. Not a hunch, or intuition, or eye test. Otherwise, your observation is 100% opinion. Don't get me wrong, I can grasp the concept of "clutch", but you are categorizing Geno carelessly. Regardless, you want to know what I think is "clutch"? When your quarterback knows that his defense is going to get run roughshod, lose every bit of momentum that the offense has achieved, and then go out and play like an All Pro any way. "Clutch" isn't a quantifiable measure, but my "eye test" tells me that Geno was consistently doing well with respect to "play under pressure". He put up very good numbers considering how often his defense put him in a hole. Don't tell me that he failed to deliver when he was tested with adversity. The story of his season was about facing adversity imposed upon him by a really bad defense.

Let me help you to understand what "flash in the pan" means to me. It means a good performance followed by a series of bad performances. It is deceitful to categorize Geno as a "flash in the pan". He had his good performance. We are waiting for the follow up. The "flash in the pan" designation isn't appropriate until the following seasons run their course.

You talk about Geno's history? That would be a history of backing up franchise quarterbacks. Show me where in that history there resides a sample size large enough to pass judgement. In fact, there is not enough evidence to pass judgement on whether Geno's play would be above or below average if given the opportunity for multiple consecutive starts. Reference his rookie year? Look at Elway, Aikman, or Manning rookie years. HOF quarterbacks that didn't start out so well. Regardless, Geno got his opportunity. He made the most of it. He earned his standing. Pete thinks so. Schnieder think so. I think so. That is how the NFL works. You go to the well until it runs dry. You are trying to convince me that the well is dry for Geno when every time the bucket was lowered it came up full.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

You talk about Geno's history? That would be a history of backing up franchise quarterbacks. Show me where in that history there resides a sample size large enough to pass judgement. In fact, there is not enough evidence to pass judgement on whether Geno's play would be above or below average if given the opportunity for multiple consecutive starts. Reference his rookie year? Look at Elway, Aikman, or Manning rookie years. HOF quarterbacks that didn't start out so well. Regardless, Geno got his opportunity. He made the most of it. He earned his standing. Pete thinks so. Schnieder think so. I think so. That is how the NFL works. You go to the well until it runs dry. You are trying to convince me that the well is dry for Geno when every time the bucket was lowered it came up full.

Of course it’s opinion same as yours. To your point above, there’s one season to judge that’s relevant to a future contract. Yet in closing you appear willing to ignore that insufficiency and conclude he’s earned a big contract.

I’m conceding Geno had a great year, even though the argument he peaked early and declined at the close has merit.

My argument is twofold:
One, given the lack of history as a starter you‘re taking a huge gamble that Geno will continue to perform at a high level. The form of that gamble is cap dollars and the associated opportunity cost if spent elsewhere.

Two, even if Geno performs at a ‘22 level, the combination of his short shelf life and the state of the roster are a poor fit.

Imagine Geno was a free agent coming off the same year with the Colts. Can a Seattle GM responsibly make the argument that this roster is just a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender and commit to landing him? If not, paying a franchise QB rate is a waste of cap.

As I’ve said in other posts, I’d be glad to have Geno back at a reasonable rate to act as a bridge to a QBoTF. He’d be less risk and provide more stability than Lock or another free agent.

If Geno can find another team in a better position to take the gamble, more power to him. At his age, get the dollars while you can.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Wins and losses, especially playoff wins, are the only stat that truly matters.

 

[had2bhawk]

Geno will stay and this new season will be even better than last!

 

[Hawk4life]

My position is that Geno is pretty much Russ 2.0. It's being over hyped and I'm not going to claim he is an elite QB (I never did with Russ either). Geno is an average QB that had a great season because of Cross and Lucas.

It has been my opinion that Russ is equivalent to Geno, Cross and Lucas. And comparing this year to last year, we were a little better.

But if you want a real apples to apples comparison of Russ to Geno just look back to last year when Russ was injured.

I'm looking at this and thinking since Cross and Lucas elevated Geno's game so much what would it look like with a real elite QB behind them.