How many years after Wilson leaves is Carroll still coach?

[TwistedHusky]

The FO had to choose between Wilson and Carroll.

It is looking suspiciously like Carroll is the FO making this decision.

So in a decision to keep Wilson or keep Carroll, Carroll was going to win.

So the question looms...

Assuming the Wilson trade happens, (which might be later when the cap hit is lower but is more likely after the season)

How long does Carroll remain coach before he steps down?

He has a five-year contract. Assuming that next year Wilson probably plays for us this coming season - I predict two years.

Whatever reset is coming probably happens after that.

What is your read on how long he is here assuming we decided this is the horse we want to ride and will likely let Wilson go?

 

[JayhawkMike]

I predict one more season of RW and two more seasons of PC.

BTW there seems to still be a lot of smoke out there about RW even after the Bears signed Dalton. It may be media BS but it has not gone away.

 

[TwistedHusky]

That is my read too.

Pete faces a conundrum, his entire legacy in the NFL, if not most of his success...is dependent on Russell Wilson.

The moment Wilson is gone, so does Pete's success and probably a good portion of his legacy as his flaws get exposed.

Without the LOB, Pete's system really does not work.

What people overlook is that his system also doesn't work without a tremendously mobile, incredibly efficient QB, that can produce under pressure.

The only guy I can think of that is sort of a really poor man's Wilson is Minshew. (If the Bears are smart they get him - with that defense they would be a better playoff team than we have been the past few years.)

Pete loves to run the ball to open up those long passes. But forget that when the runs fail, you end up having your QB make their 1st throws on the drive as 3rd and longs where the entire defense knows you are passing. There is no chance to miss the throw - you make a mistake and the drive is over.

And with your OL consisting of former UPS deliverymen, crappy green as grass UDFAs, and a few vets that are getting their AARP cards in the mail - you also need to do this with little or no protection.

Even in Wilson's first year, he might have been a 'game manager' but when we needed to covert a crucial 3rd and 8, he delivered. And it kept drives alive.

You cannot just plug anyone into that system. They have to be able to produce under pressure with very few throws given to them.
Not sure I see many college QBs that can do that, maybe Zach Wilson who goes too early for us to get.

PeteBall barely uses the QB but when it does, the QB has to be incredibly efficient and do this under pressure. 'Bus Drivers' and typical game manager QBs won't work. Our defense won't be good enough. We still have to score on the drives we have.

I don't think Pete's ego was going to let Wilson stay and Pete have to go (Even if kicked upstairs). But I think there is a good chance that once Wilson leaves Pete will end up having to leave a year or two later...just to avoid being exposed as a coach that really rode Wilson's coattails to victory much of the time.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Two years before he is run out of town and he quits. Jody Allen will sell in three.

 

[oldhawkfan]

Since Russell Wilson will retire a Seahawk in 10 years, the question is more along the lines of how long will Russ be a Seahawk after PC leaves?

 

[Hawaii-hawk]

I seem to be joining the consensus at about 2 years. 1 year of still having RW, we yet again go nowhere in the playoffs assuming we even make it, and Pete Carroll takes 1 more year thinking his stockpile of picks from the RW trade will build him 1 more chance at a superbowl run. And maybe that’d be possible if we strike gold like we did with the RW/Lynch/LOB triumvirate. But I ain’t gonna predict that.

 

[Hawkpower]

The FO had to choose between Wilson and Carroll.

It is looking suspiciously like Carroll is the FO making this decision.

So in a decision to keep Wilson or keep Carroll, Carroll was going to win.

So the question looms...

Assuming the Wilson trade happens, (which might be later when the cap hit is lower but is more likely after the season)

How long does Carroll remain coach before he steps down?

He has a five-year contract. Assuming that next year Wilson probably plays for us this coming season - I predict two years.

Whatever reset is coming probably happens after that.

What is your read on how long he is here assuming we decided this is the horse we want to ride and will likely let Wilson go?

A long list of strawmans here

Also: didn’t Pete reportedly step in and nix the Russ trade?

 

[John63]

1 year after Wilson leaves if he leaves before PC retires. No Wilson no winning no PC.

 

[AROS]

Since Russell Wilson will retire a Seahawk in 10 years, the question is more along the lines of how long will Russ be a Seahawk after PC leaves?

I'm riding your train.

 

[Own The West]

Is the sole purpose of this thread to create something to complain about now that we signed some free agents?

 

[TwistedHusky]

Is the question a complaint?

No.

But if we are losing Wilson, which seems likely, it certainly makes sense to come to a realization on reasonable expectations.

It appears the consensus is that Carroll cannot succeed without Wilson, and likely will not.

So what is the timeline?

Based on most of the projections, which seem reasonable, we would expect the Seahawks to reset (with the departure of Carroll) in 3 years. One of those 3 will likely be with Wilson. 2 without, and probably less pleasant.

We then load back up on draft picks and hopefully continue to be a competitive team with a new coach after a moderate to worse dip during the tail end of the Carroll period.

If we have to endure this, looking at where the light at the end of the tunnel is... feels reasonable.

Hence the question, how long is Carroll here after Wilson leaves? (which is very likely at the end of this season)

 

[jammerhawk]

Own The West, you absolutely nailed it.

Wilson will be here long after Pete leaves.

 

[GaiusMarius]

I don't think that Wilson wants to be here and that's a problem. So sooner or later he won't be. With a disinterested ownership it would appear that Carroll is safe.

The rest depends on what comes next. Carroll's system can work with a decent, but not great QB. Seeing that play out without a 35M QB would be interesting (no, Jackson wasn't decent) as we have never really seen that. You would think the run game would improve and defense with more resources allocated to it.

The outcome of that would determine how long Carroll stays and that scenario is so murky I'm not sure what it looks like.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Again, you you have absolutely NO proof he doesn't want to be here. Until I hear it from him, I'm not buying it. Mad at Pete? Frustrated with the pathetic O Line? Sure, and justified.
But again, more assumptions. He said ONE thing, and people go on and on and act like he's a 9 year complainer. Beyond hilarious. Believe what you want, none of us truly know. Until he is gone or traded, I'm not going to assume anything. I totally get that it's not all rosy, but my god, people act like they are at war. This whole off season has been nothing but speculation w/not a lot to prove what so many assume. Let it play out and see what happens after 2021. The media has people brainwashed. Some of it might be true, but not even close to how they portray it and/or WANT it to be. Even now, they still are clinging to hope, that isn't gonna' happen.
IF he ever gets traded, then I'll believe he wanted to be gone. Especially since he has the no trade clause.

 

[Jerhawk]

Around and around we go. Weee

They're winning the Superbowl this year, Pete will retire on a good note, Wilson will be our QB for the next decade, all will be good

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Who said that? Not me.
I'm fully aware of the issues and things that need to change.

 

[Jerhawk]

Who said that? Not me.
I'm fully aware of the issues and things that need to change.

I wasn't responding to your post. I was responding to the OP/thread.

I'm back on the positivity train now, keep up! Superbowl champs!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Aaaah, ok. Sorry, I'm just so trained to assume the worse on dot negative hahahaha
Turns out I'm back to being positive. Though maybe a little more cautiously optimistic.

:irishdrinkers:

 

[pittpnthrs]

Carroll's system can work with a decent, but not great QB.

Honestly, I dont think it can. Especially at this point. Lets not forget how many times Russ has had to dip into his magic hat and become the hero in the 4th quarters. Merely decent QBs arent getting that done.

I do feel that Wilson skips next season. The two reasons the Chicago deal didnt go down this season is the cap hit (less next year) and Carroll doesnt have a plan for a QB right now. What Chicago offered was enough and a deal like that will fly next season as Pete readies himself with some options.

 

[Hawkpower]

Carroll's system can work with a decent, but not great QB.

Honestly, I dont think it can. Especially at this point. Lets not forget how many times Russ has had to dip into his magic hat and become the hero in the 4th quarters. Merely decent QBs arent getting that done.

I do feel that Wilson skips next season. The two reasons the Chicago deal didnt go down this season is the cap hit (less next year) and Carroll doesnt have a plan for a QB right now. What Chicago offered was enough and a deal like that will fly next season as Pete readies himself with some options.

I'm not sure Wilson's production was elite in our Super Bowl year

He was good, no doubt.

But that team was not built around him