How many HRs will Cal hit?

[bileever]

Although many people think that there is no way Cal can repeat last year's performance, all indications are that it's sustainable. It's not like he had a hot streak, then fell off. He was remarkably consistent throughout the year. After hitting 1 HR in March, these are his totals by month:

April: 9
May: 12
June: 11
July: 9
Aug: 8
Sept: 10

He'll face obstacles for sure, such as pitchers not giving him anything to hit. But he'll also have more protection in the lineup with Naylor, Donovan, Refsnyder and Julio. The key is whether they can give him a few more days rest from catching and DH a little more.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I'm thinking around 45, which would still be incredible for a C.

 

[sutz]

Guess I'm too conservative, but I had to go with <50. Won't be surprised if he proves me wrong, though.

 

[bileever]

Fangraphs is predicting that Cal will hit 39 HRs this year. ESPN writer Dave Schoenfield predicts that he'll hit 47. Matt Calkins of the Seattle Times says 45-49.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-cal-raleigh-should-have-another-monster-season-in-2026/

 

[Steve Hawk]

44

 

[Azvacar]

Id say like... 35 this year personally last year was an anomaly.. a cool one.. but hes not a 50+ a year dude.

 

[nwHawk]

What if the replay causes pitchers to try to stay in the strike zone more? As long as Cal doesn’t chase bad pitches, 40+ is repeatable.

 

[Wsumatt1982]

My guess is high 30's, might break into the low 40's. I'll say 37

 

[bileever]

Here are Cal's career stats for 2022-2025:



While you might expect some reversion to his career averages, you can also see that there has been improvement every year in his power numbers. And don't forget his switch to the torpedo bat in 2025. Although the torpedo bat only had a slight impact for batters on average, it did help batters who are swinging at inside pitches more.

 

[Blazenhawks]

I'm thinking around 45, which would still be incredible for a C.

I agree with this, assuming no injuries happen I see 42-48 range

 

[Ozzy]

Honestly if the dude hits 30 a year for another handful of years he locks up being the greatest power hitting catcher of all time. I think he's better then that though and hits 44 is my guess. Will be fun to see how this shakes out.

 

[CostaRicaHawk]

Here are Cal's career stats for 2022-2025:

View attachment 79511

While you might expect some reversion to his career averages, you can also see that there has been improvement every year in his power numbers. And don't forget his switch to the torpedo bat in 2025. Although the torpedo bat only had a slight impact for batters on average, it did help batters who are swinging at inside pitches more.

looking at this chart, he has improved by at least 10% per year . So, let's go with 66.

 

[Shane Falco]

I agree with those that said somewhere around 45. That's a good number. Still a great number but not too lofty of expectations.
It would be incredible to see back to back historic seasons but to have expectations like that would be crazy.

 

[sutz]

I agree with those that said somewhere around 45. That's a good number. Still a great number but not too lofty of expectations.
It would be incredible to see back to back historic seasons but to have expectations like that would be crazy.

One thing I don't want Cal to do is to start focusing on some arbitrary number of HRs instead of focusing on what the team needs to win in the aggregate. He actually seemed to do pretty well at that last season, even in the hunt for 60 he seemed to stay focused more on the hunt for the pennant.

 

[Atradees]

65