Great assessment of Geno's probable next contract

massari

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Franchise tag and draft a QB with the Broncos pick. This gives them opportunity to see if Smith is a one year wonder, and see how the QB prospect develops before signing Smith to multiple years.
 

sutz

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Projecting the cap will go to $220-30. Interesting.
 

kidhawk

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“It looks like it’s most definitely gonne be a top-10 pick, and it could be in the top-five, which would put you in striking distance of drafting a (top) quarterback,” Corry said. “So do you hedge your bets and draft a quarterback this year which would, in a sense, take away some of Geno’s leverage with the team? So that’s an interesting variable in the equation as well.”

This bit at the end of the article is where I'm at with this whole thing. I'd like to see us use some draft capital and get a quarterback in the draft. Then I'd like to see if Geno is willing to come back at a large raise, but closer to $20 million than the $33-$34 million I keep hearing tossed around. I just don't see him having similar success outside of Seattle, but if someone wants to pay him that kind of money I wouldn't blame him for taking it.
 
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Lords of Scythia

Lords of Scythia

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This bit at the end of the article is where I'm at with this whole thing. I'd like to see us use some draft capital and get a quarterback in the draft. Then I'd like to see if Geno is willing to come back at a large raise, but closer to $20 million than the $33-$34 million I keep hearing tossed around. I just don't see him having similar success outside of Seattle, but if someone wants to pay him that kind of money I wouldn't blame him for taking it.
That would be substantially less than franchising him, so he would be doing the team a favor if he did that.
 

Donn2390

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$3.6 mil is 12% of $30 mil, who amongst us would balk at an 88% raise in salary? Many people were stating that paying $3.6 to carry a superstars clipboard was a ridiculous reach, could have had several other for much less...
 

morgulon1

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This bit at the end of the article is where I'm at with this whole thing. I'd like to see us use some draft capital and get a quarterback in the draft. Then I'd like to see if Geno is willing to come back at a large raise, but closer to $20 million than the $33-$34 million I keep hearing tossed around. I just don't see him having similar success outside of Seattle, but if someone wants to pay him that kind of money I wouldn't blame him for taking it.
I have a bad feeling about his next deal. I think the money is going to be way off from what Geno Smith is going to command. I can't say I blame him, he's earned an opportunity to get a great contract . I wouldn't play for 10 mil less than what I could command on the open market. Maybe Seattle can make it heavy incentive laden where he can get to 30+ with a Super bowl, MVP etc..
 

Hockey Guy

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It's gonna be all about the guaranteed money.

I still think 3 year 70-75M with 45-50M guaranteed gets it done.

It sets Geno up for life, if he's not already, & gives him considerably more guaranteed money than if he got franchised & had to take all the injury & performance dropoff risk.

All this is dependent on his play not falling off a cliff the 2nd half of the season which I don't really see happening but I guess is possible.

I'd much rather this scenario & resign Lock to back-up(I still think he has potential, especially in this system) & use the draft capital to fill holes with potentially more game changers on rookie contracts that could put us over the top & keep us there for a few years.
 

Kinger95

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What team is he gonna leave us for? There’s no market. Bucs maybe if Brady leaves geno pays no state tax there but where else??

Houston and Carolina are gonna take top 5 pick QBs and geno doesn’t make them playoff teams. Giant’s maybe if jones leaves but there’s like 25 teams that are locked into a Qb they already have for next season.

Where does everybody think geno/lock/jones/jimmy g/Brady/mayfield / darnald end up next year?
 

flv2

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What team is he gonna leave us for? There’s no market. Bucs maybe if Brady leaves geno pays no state tax there but where else??

Houston and Carolina are gonna take top 5 pick QBs and geno doesn’t make them playoff teams. Giant’s maybe if jones leaves but there’s like 25 teams that are locked into a Qb they already have for next season.

Where does everybody think geno/lock/jones/jimmy g/Brady/mayfield / darnald end up next year?
I think Brady will retire, as will Ryan and less importantly Dalton. I could see Rodgers and/or Stafford retiring as well. Wentz shouldn't be retained and I don't see him accepting a bottom-end starter or back-up contract. Wentz could well sit out the 2023 season before retiring. The Panthers, Jets, and Falcons probably don't have their 2023 starting QBs on their rosters yet. The Lions could dump Goff.

I don't see 25 teams locked into their QB situations.
 

Jegpeg

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Mayfield and Darnold wont get starting jobs elsewhere though one might stay with the Panthers and compete for the starting role in case the rookie isn't ready week 1.

I can't see Lock getting a starting role anywhere other than here (if Geno goes)

I expect Brady will retire

Jones (presumably Daniel) is in similar situation to Geno playing much better this season than has been seen in the past, while not at Geno's level his age gives him an advantage over Geno.

Heineke is also entering free agency, I expect Wentz to be cut (and not get a starting role elsewhere) I expet hte commanders ot sign him in a new contract but if not the commanders also become a team wanting a QB.

So leaves Daniel Jones, Geno, and Jimmy G are the starting level quarterbacks available alongside the rookie class (after the Panthers and Texans have taken their choices)

Teams that might get a new QB

Seahawks (if Geno goes)
Giants (if Jones goes, have a lot of cap space)
Jets (desperately need a QB, they can release a lot of cap space by terminating Lawson and Davis)
Pats (Mac Jones is has gone right down this season, I could see the pats give up on him have the cap space)
Colts (Not sure they want another year of Ryan, he will have a lot of dead cap but cutting him will create a lot of space)
Falcons (Are likely to want an upgrade from Mariotta and have a load of cap space)
Buccs (The buccs currently have -$55m 2023 cap space, Brady retiring brings that down to -$20m I can't see them paying big money for a QB but I am no expert on how to create cap space)
 

Maelstrom787

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What team is he gonna leave us for? There’s no market. Bucs maybe if Brady leaves geno pays no state tax there but where else??

Houston and Carolina are gonna take top 5 pick QBs and geno doesn’t make them playoff teams. Giant’s maybe if jones leaves but there’s like 25 teams that are locked into a Qb they already have for next season.

Where does everybody think geno/lock/jones/jimmy g/Brady/mayfield / darnald end up next year?

How do you figure there's no market?

If Geno keeps this up through the end of the season, it'd be sheer madness to claim no market would materialize. NFL teams don't just laugh off near-MVP seasons from quarterbacks. That's not reality.
 

olyfan63

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How do you figure there's no market?

If Geno keeps this up through the end of the season, it'd be sheer madness to claim no market would materialize. NFL teams don't just laugh off near-MVP seasons from quarterbacks. That's not reality.
Clearly there will be a market for Geno's services, besides the Seahawks. Will Geno's success be viewed as that of a "system" QB? Geno is now in his 4th year with the Seahawks, 2nd year with OC Shane Waldron.

...an agent who has negotiated high-level quarterback contracts added: “His value is highest with Seattle. He’s been there and he’s a leader who fits the culture of what they do. I honestly don’t know if anyone else would be willing to pay him what Seattle will. He’s just worth more in Seattle because there’s proof it already works there.”

For other teams to view Geno as a "solution" for their QB position, it would need to be a team that runs a similar system to what Geno has been successful with in Seattle, e.g., the McVay/Waldron type of offense. I don't know offhand which teams run similar systems, aside from the Rams and probably Detroit, which is based mostly on observing that ex-Ram Jared Goff is actually doing very well in Detroit. Anyone know which teams run a similar system where Geno would be an upgrade?

...a free agency run for (Geno) likely wouldn’t be the same bonanza it was for Kirk Cousins back in 2018. Although Cousins was 30, he had a longer track record of success and more than a few wildly desperate teams lining up in free agency.

Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/geno-smith...an-his-first-10-years-combined-061553040.html

It looks like Geno is in for a payday somewhere between $20-35M per year if the Seahawks re-sign him. Hope they do.
 

keasley45

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Clearly there will be a market for Geno's services, besides the Seahawks. Will Geno's success be viewed as that of a "system" QB? Geno is now in his 4th year with the Seahawks, 2nd year with OC Shane Waldron.

...an agent who has negotiated high-level quarterback contracts added: “His value is highest with Seattle. He’s been there and he’s a leader who fits the culture of what they do. I honestly don’t know if anyone else would be willing to pay him what Seattle will. He’s just worth more in Seattle because there’s proof it already works there.”

For other teams to view Geno as a "solution" for their QB position, it would need to be a team that runs a similar system to what Geno has been successful with in Seattle, e.g., the McVay/Waldron type of offense. I don't know offhand which teams run similar systems, aside from the Rams and probably Detroit, which is based mostly on observing that ex-Ram Jared Goff is actually doing very well in Detroit. Anyone know which teams run a similar system where Geno would be an upgrade?

...a free agency run for (Geno) likely wouldn’t be the same bonanza it was for Kirk Cousins back in 2018. Although Cousins was 30, he had a longer track record of success and more than a few wildly desperate teams lining up in free agency.

Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/geno-smith...an-his-first-10-years-combined-061553040.html

It looks like Geno is in for a payday somewhere between $20-35M per year if the Seahawks re-sign him. Hope they do.

I could see 35mil a year plus incentives and a fat guarantee over 3 years or 4 years working - if the incentives are at levels Geno and the team feel are win-wins.
 

olyfan63

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But honestly, i feel like 35 mil is the floor.
Could be, we shall see. The primary concern is having enough cap room to bring in those 3 or 4 difference-maker free agents that provide a position upgrade and also upgrade the depth. The Seahawks lost 2 Super Bowls (IMO) because of inadequate depth at the DB positions (losing irreplaceable parts Marquand Manuel in XL, and Jeremy Lane in XLIX). Pete's cheap-but-good QB formula allowed the key 2013 Free Agent signings of Avril, Bennett and Tony McDaniel, which it's likely the Seahawks would not have won the SB without. Pete's playoff-winning formula relies on a whole bunch of players outplaying their contracts. Pete now knows the formula of paying a QB elite money and getting limited, non-elite performance against good defenses is a playoff-losing one.

Geno deserves his money and he has a smaller window in which to get it. His earnings next year will undoubtedly surpass his whole first decade of NFL earnings. I'm hoping it's closer to $25M so that in Free Agency, for example, we could pick up an upgrade at LB to Cody Barton while perhaps keeping him around as NFL-capable depth, and maybe a difference-maker pass rusher to pair with Nwosu. (Nwosu being, IMO, the best FA signing since Avril-Bennett.

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers were all about their own money, while Tom Brady restructured his contracts to allow his teams to add/keep a couple more difference-maker players. The QB ring count speaks for itself on that one, not to mention the 2022 W/L record, Rodgers losing Davante Adams seems to be a huge loss for him. I just hope Pete and John can keep Geno's level of QB play (which may or may not include keeping Geno) with enough cap space to repeat 2013-2014 winning formula.
 

Donn2390

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But honestly, i feel like 35 mil is the floor.
Much still remains to be seen over the rest of the season. I hope he gets a kings ransom after leading the Hawks to a SB victory and a MVP trophy.
Just going deep into the playoffs will pay big dividends, anything more will be icing on the cake.
I would like to see Geno holding the the Lombardi and announcing "He still ain't write back"!!
Let's see how the season finishes up...
 
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