Geno Trade Value?

[Kamcussionator]

Here's the only Geno stats that matter:

Geno Smith | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Geno Smith signed a 2 year, $75,000,000 contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, including $66,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $37,500,000. In 2025, Smith will earn a base salary of $14,800,000, a roster bonus of $16,000,000 and a workout bonus of $200,000, while carrying a...

www.spotrac.com

I don't see him having any trade value unless it's for a playoff team who's QB goes down at the trade deadline. Too much money for a average+ QB that's 34. He's not a HOF QB and he's not going to develop into one. If I'm a GM I'll take two guys with promise and 10 years ahead of them before I take Geno.

If they can ink Drew Lock before 2/16, I wouldn't be surprised to see Geno cut.

 

[Titus Pullo]

No, they aren't 'clones' and they aren't close and I don't know why you keep bringing up the 'time' in Seattle's offense. When Geno came in for Russ in 2021, he had been in Shane Waldron's system for less than a season.

When Drew came in for Teddy Bridgewater in 2021, he had been in that system for a season and a half. When he came in for Geno this year, he had also been in that system for a season and a half.

To remind, this is how those stints compare:

	Success Rate	Passer Rating	QBR	ANY/A
Geno (2021)	44.4%	103.0	45.8	5.42
Drew (2021)	36.7%	80.4	23.4	5.71
Drew (2023)	40.2%	81.2	44.9	5.39

This isn't 'starter' Geno with more time in the system I'm comparing to Drew Lock. This is backup Geno, with LESS time in his system vs. backup Drew that same year and 2 years later.

Drew as a backup in 2021 was much worse than Geno as a backup in 2021.

Drew as a backup for the Seahawks in Shane Waldron's system was much worse than Geno was as a backup for the Seahawks in Shane Waldron's system.

Again..... For 9 years, Geno sucked.
Drew only sucked for 5 years.

 

[Parallax]

It’s a fair point. I think some teams are getting better at evaluating players and I’d also say some of those misses might be more situationally based than wrongly scouted. Look at Lawrence when he had Meyer. He looked like the worst QB in the league. New staff comes in and Lawrence looks much better. Jones went to NE where Bellicheck destroyed the talent around him. Wilson and Lance I think are just busts. You’re still going to have some misses just like with any other position but I think the league has gotten smarter? But as I type this I realize I may be giving them too much credit….something to think about.

I think Young still has a chance to pop. His situation was terrible. Hopefully Canales can work his magic.

Again I’m open to being wrong here. It’s a subjective thought for sure.

I still think because the position is so valuable you have to take some chances and be willing to miss. The final 8 playoff teams all had really, really good QB play. If you don’t have a top 10 QB you better be special somewhere else and even then it’s a tough road. You need ultra efficient production from that position and if Macdonald doesn’t get it he will be a .500 QB like Pete, Bill and every other elite coach is when they don’t have one

I agree, again for the most part. It's a really hard position to scout and then there are guys like Penix who are even harder to assess because a guy can be outstanding in one way and questionable in another.

I like the idea of taking shots at QB, knowing some will miss. I think it's crazy to move up if it costs too much though. So the 49ers and Panthers were not wise. Not quite as boneheaded as the Browns when they traded for Watson. Someone deserved to be outright shot, as opposed to merely getting fired. Probably Caserio.

 

[Parallax]

Here's the only Geno stats that matter:

Geno Smith | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Geno Smith signed a 2 year, $75,000,000 contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, including $66,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $37,500,000. In 2025, Smith will earn a base salary of $14,800,000, a roster bonus of $16,000,000 and a workout bonus of $200,000, while carrying a...

www.spotrac.com

I don't see him having any trade value unless it's for a playoff team who's QB goes down at the trade deadline. Too much money for a average+ QB that's 34. He's not a HOF QB and he's not going to develop into one. If I'm a GM I'll take two guys with promise and 10 years ahead of them before I take Geno.

If they can ink Drew Lock before 2/16, I wouldn't be surprised to see Geno cut.

I like the option of cutting rather than holding and trading in a narrow window. We'd have no negotiating leverage and would be lucky to get a forth a the risk of getting nothing and blowing a bunch of cap space. Too much risk for too little potential return.

 

[Parallax]

Again..... For 9 years, Geno sucked.
Drew only sucked for 5 years.

Am I to trust statistics over my eyes?

 

[Titus Pullo]

Am I to trust statistics over my eyes?

No. Trust your eyes.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Maybe I should be comparing Geno Bridgewater to Teddy Bridgewater.

I mean... sure? But what is the point here? Because Geno and Teddy are both QBs who clearly beat out Drew for starting jobs?

Teddy's two best seasons as a starter were 2020 with the Panthers and 2021 with the Broncos. Geno's two best are--obviously--his two seasons starting here. So how do they compare?

	Success Rate	Passer Rating	QBR	ANY/A
Geno (2022-2023)	47.7%	96.8	61.3	6.47
Teddy (2020-2021)	46.1%	93.5	52.3	6.35

Is that what you were expecting? Teddy as a QB in Carolina and Denver, at his best, wasn't as good as Geno has been here... and he still solidly won the starting job over Drew Lock. Just like Geno did.

And this is funny, to me, kind of, because Teddy's performance with Denver, he rated out to be something like the 16th or 17th best QB that year. Basically definition of league average (for a starter).

So, Denver thinks "Yeah, we're just a QB away", dump Teddy, dump Drew, spend a fortune for a superstar QB (that's what you need to win!)... and proceed to get their brand new head coach fired by going 5-12 with a top 10 defense.

Meanwhile, can you imagine how they would have looked with a league average starter instead of the bottom 5 dumpster fire that was Russell Wilson in 2022?

 

[renofox]

Again..... For 9 years, Geno sucked.
Drew only sucked for 5 years.

Incontrovertible proof that Geno sucks more than Drew!

 

[Parallax]

I mean... sure? But what is the point here? Because Geno and Teddy are both QBs who clearly beat out Drew for starting jobs?

Teddy's two best seasons as a starter were 2020 with the Panthers and 2021 with the Broncos. Geno's two best are--obviously--his two seasons starting here. So how do they compare?

	Success Rate	Passer Rating	QBR	ANY/A
Geno (2022-2023)	47.7%	96.8	61.3	6.47
Teddy (2020-2021)	46.1%	93.5	52.3	6.35

Is that what you were expecting? Teddy as a QB in Carolina and Denver, at his best, wasn't as good as Geno has been here... and he still solidly won the starting job over Drew Lock. Just like Geno did.

And this is funny, to me, kind of, because Teddy's performance with Denver, he rated out to be something like the 16th or 17th best QB that year. Basically definition of league average (for a starter).

So, Denver thinks "Yeah, we're just a QB away", dump Teddy, dump Drew, spend a fortune for a superstar QB (that's what you need to win!)... and proceed to get their brand new head coach fired by going 5-12 with a top 10 defense.

Meanwhile, can you imagine how they would have looked with a league average starter instead of the bottom 5 dumpster fire that was Russell Wilson in 2022?

Yes, they'd have looked a lot like us. Mediocre and unlikely to make a deep playoff run but too good to get us that lovely pick that turned into Witherspoon.

Thus, the mantra: DON'T TRADE PICKS!!! It's fine to have a down season if you get to reap the reward. That's how San Francisco created the team it has. Some amazing picks that came following atrocious seasons combined with mostly wise choices on veteran contracts, free agents and trades (one really bad choice notwithstanding).

 

[Parallax]

Incontrovertible proof that Geno sucks more than Drew!

My point was, is and remains that we don't know Drew. He hasn't been given the opportunity and support necessary to find out. Our eyes reveal the potential but he's not so far been able to make consistently smart and wise decisions on the fly. If he can learn to do that, the sky's the limit. And given how hard that can be to teach, the odds aren't great. I'm not an oddsmaker but I'd say less than 50/50. Still, we have him so why not find out? If we don't, another team will and we could wind up looking like fools.

I don't particularly care if we look foolish -- whatever. I'd just hate to think that he could have been ours. Reminds me of when I was a kid and a huge Yankee fan. I'd follow these players through the farm system, watching them develop. Then they'd come up, have a bad game or two, and Steinbrenner would make some disparaging comment and impulsively trade them for some fading vet. Some of them turned into stars. Al Leiter comes to mind. Won in the world series for the Blue Jays and pitched a no-hitter for the Marlins. Better example, Willie McGee to the Cardinals. Worse yet was future Hall of Famer Fred McGriff for nothing. Just a few examples among many.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Yes, they'd have looked a lot like us. Mediocre and unlikely to make a deep playoff run but too good to get us that lovely pick that turned into Witherspoon.

Thus, the mantra: DON'T TRADE PICKS!!! It's fine to have a down season if you get to reap the reward. That's how San Francisco created the team it has. Some amazing picks that came following atrocious seasons combined with mostly wise choices on veteran contracts, free agents and trades (one really bad choice notwithstanding).

I'm sorry, the Niners acquired the best player on their team by trading away four picks, they acquired the anchor of their offensive line by trading away two picks, their best receiver was a late first round pick and the other they got in the second, they got their star TE in the fifth. Their current QB was the last pick of the draft and the QB who led them to their last Super Bowl appearance they got by (you guessed it) trading away a pick.

The only player who fits the description of a big pick from having a 'down' season is Nick Bosa. The other pick they made from a down season was the one you don't want to talk about but seems appropriate because lots of teams end up with a Trey Lance as often as they end up with a Nick Bosa...

 

[Maelstrom787]

Yes, they'd have looked a lot like us. Mediocre and unlikely to make a deep playoff run but too good to get us that lovely pick that turned into Witherspoon.

Thus, the mantra: DON'T TRADE PICKS!!! It's fine to have a down season if you get to reap the reward. That's how San Francisco created the team it has. Some amazing picks that came following atrocious seasons combined with mostly wise choices on veteran contracts, free agents and trades (one really bad choice notwithstanding).

Wait.. what? The Niners are the literal model of a team trading draft capital away for star players...

They didn't sit on a bunch of high picks they earned by sucking. They traded away significant capital for studs and found value later. They're the OPPOSITE of a "don't trade picks" mantra!

 

[Parallax]

I'm sorry, the Niners acquired the best player on their team by trading away four picks, they acquired the anchor of their offensive line by trading away two picks, their best receiver was a late first round pick and the other they got in the second, they got their star TE in the fifth. Their current QB was the last pick of the draft and the QB who led them to their last Super Bowl appearance they got by (you guessed it) trading away a pick.

The only player who fits the description of a big pick from having a 'down' season is Nick Bosa. The other pick they made from a down season was the one you don't want to talk about but seems appropriate because lots of teams end up with a Trey Lance as often as they end up with a Nick Bosa...

Aiyuk was also a first rounder. I never said only top first round picks have value. I said the best teams build through the draft. Like the Hawks did in the beginning. Sherman was a 5th rounder. The point is hitting and it's easier to hit with higher picks. Not so much in the middle rounds but at the very top of the draft, yes.

I personally think the models used to trade picks overvalue round one and undervalue rounds three and four. But whatever. My point is that the core of the team needs to be built with the draft, which is what San Francisco did, patiently, over several years. Then, when they were close, they added by making some smart trades. There too, they made sure to get value.

The Seahawks were nowhere near good enough to be taking those big swings on free agents and trades in the last few years. The Adams trade, one could argue, might in some universe make sense. We still had a top 5 to 10 QB who could carry the team at times. We had some other key pieces. With smarter coaching, unlike that Dallas playoff game that was ripe for the taking when they dared us to pass, who knows. So while I thought the Adams trade misguided because it was anything but good value, it at least made sense to me. A going all in while the chance was there. Like the Rams did on Stafford, which won them a Superbowl before they imploded.

I assert that there's no reasonable universe in which the Williams trade made sense. We were obviously not a piece away. We had a mediocre QB and a defense that couldn't tackle. We had all this talent on offense that we didn't know how to use. Too much talent. When DK was out, everyone else looked better because there were more targets.

I used to be into swing dance and Carroll was like the dance student who keeps learning new moves without knowing how to stay on beat. We had all these weapons on offense we didn't know how to use, a QB who folded when pressured, lines that weren't cutting it and a defense that had no clue how to tackle. Basics first. Build the foundation. The draft is for building the foundation. Then, when you're really close, MAYBE it makes sense to make a big, splashy trade. Overpay for someone.

Personally, I'd rather be like the Ravens, consistently good from year to year, even if you never quite make it all the way. They never make splashy but ultimately stupid moves. They could have gone all the way this year. They didn't. Maybe next year will be different. Rather than one lucky win, which almost didn't happen, followed by a future mortgaged to the hilt, they have all the pieces to take another run. But McVey is so much smarter than Carroll and the Rams are already coming out of it. By trading away some big talent for draft picks and then making smart picks and coaching well. There's more than one way to skin a cat. Problem is, Pete was clueless and plan-less. Just more of the same with no answers. "Win now". Which just sounded to me so stupid. Like something a clueless jock says when he has no idea what to do next.

 

[bigcc]

Here's the only Geno stats that matter:

Geno Smith | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Geno Smith signed a 2 year, $75,000,000 contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, including $66,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $37,500,000. In 2025, Smith will earn a base salary of $14,800,000, a roster bonus of $16,000,000 and a workout bonus of $200,000, while carrying a...

www.spotrac.com

I don't see him having any trade value unless it's for a playoff team who's QB goes down at the trade deadline. Too much money for a average+ QB that's 34. He's not a HOF QB and he's not going to develop into one. If I'm a GM I'll take two guys with promise and 10 years ahead of them before I take Geno.

If they can ink Drew Lock before 2/16, I wouldn't be surprised to see Geno cut.

100 percent agree

We're definitely going to find out quickly either way since it doesn't make sense to cut him after that.

The more I think about it, the less likely him being traded before 3/17 makes sense too. Even if they can get geno for a 7th, why would anyone trade to have the right to give geno 9.6 million dollars they wouldn't have to the next day, before the draft and free agency?

I'm inclined to say he's either cut by 2/16, or here for the year, and I don't see why Macdonald would show a qb he just met on the decline any loyalty when he can draft/sign his/the oc's guy.

If geno's here 2/16, we're almost picking an OC who can work with 34 y/o geno, instead of drafting/signing a qb who can work with the OC.

 

[DarkVictory23]

I assert that there's no reasonable universe in which the Williams trade made sense. We were obviously not a piece away. We had a mediocre QB and a defense that couldn't tackle. We had all this talent on offense that we didn't know how to use. Too much talent. When DK was out, everyone else looked better because there were more targets.

I used to be into swing dance and Carroll was like the dance student who keeps learning new moves without knowing how to stay on beat. We had all these weapons on offense we didn't know how to use, a QB who folded when pressured, lines that weren't cutting it and a defense that had no clue how to tackle. Basics first. Build the foundation. The draft is for building the foundation. Then, when you're really close, MAYBE it makes sense to make a big, splashy trade. Overpay for someone.

First of all, we got Williams when we were leading our division and one of our top defenders was out due to injury. That trade absolutely made sense.

And our QB didn't fold when pressured. This is about the least informed, 'I just hate Geno' take you've made and you've made a lot. You can come at Geno's season this year from a lot of ways but if you think pressure was his undoing, I just have to assume you didn't watch him play this year.

He was one of the MOST pressured QBs in the league but was top 10 in sack rate. He threw 8 TDs vs. only 3 INTs while pressured, and would have had even better pressure numbers if he wasn't tied for fifth in receiver drops in pressure situations. He led the league in game winning drives and set the NFL record for go-ahead TD passes. It doesn't really matter which type of 'pressure' you are referring to that was the one area where our QB unequivocally excelled.


The rest of this post seems to be you counteracting the very argument you made before. Niners are good because they reaped the rewards for bad seasons... only, they didn't. And don't trade away picks... unless you know it'll work out, I guess?

And don't be like the Pete Carroll Seahawks who were consistently good but never quite got back to winning a Super Bowl. Be like the Ravens, who have been to the playoffs less often than we have since our Super Bowl win and also haven't won a Super Bowl?

 

[Parallax]

First of all, we got Williams when we were leading our division and one of our top defenders was out due to injury. That trade absolutely made sense.

And our QB didn't fold when pressured. This is about the least informed, 'I just hate Geno' take you've made and you've made a lot. You can come at Geno's season this year from a lot of ways but if you think pressure was his undoing, I just have to assume you didn't watch him play this year.

He was one of the MOST pressured QBs in the league but was top 10 in sack rate. He threw 8 TDs vs. only 3 INTs while pressured, and would have had even better pressure numbers if he wasn't tied for fifth in receiver drops in pressure situations. He led the league in game winning drives and set the NFL record for go-ahead TD passes. It doesn't really matter which type of 'pressure' you are referring to that was the one area where our QB unequivocally excelled.


The rest of this post seems to be you counteracting the very argument you made before. Niners are good because they reaped the rewards for bad seasons... only, they didn't. And don't trade away picks... unless you know it'll work out, I guess?

And don't be like the Pete Carroll Seahawks who were consistently good but never quite got back to winning a Super Bowl. Be like the Ravens, who have been to the playoffs less often than we have since our Super Bowl win and also haven't won a Super Bowl?

You'd rather talk about third down or red zone performance, where he was statistically among the worst? I'm familiar with the numbers you quote, which assert a theory that Geno was above average under pressure. Again, my eyes say otherwise. Too many times, when face with pressure, the guy folded. It may not show up on stat sheets because it didn't result in an interception or a sack.

He had games where he did well, relatively speaking. Well enough to surprise me. At the end of this season and at the beginning of "22. But I never thought it sustainable. At the beginning of "22, he threw a bunch of passes that could easily have been picked off and, for whatever reason, were not. He had his moments when he was poised under pressure and others where he did stupid stuff.

Going back to the Williams trade, I just don't see it your way and never will. I thought the record an illusion. Seemed obvious. There was only one quality win in which we caught the Lions flat footed. As the season wore on, they became a very good team. But I'm not sure they were that good in game two and they didn't seem ready for us. We had played so badly against the Rams, they probably overlooked us.

It was clear that the hard games were up coming and sure enough, when things got tough, it was reflected in the won-loss record. We got Lucky against the Eagles. As great as that last Lock drive was, we were lucky. The Eagles fell apart and we caught them before they partly rebounded. There were games we barely won that we shouldn't have. Like the Adams head butt that gave us the win. I don't think Adams even saw that ball.

I'm content for you to believe what you believe but we do not agree. Let's leave it at that, as this discussion is getting ugly and, frankly, I don't want to participate anymore. If you need to get the last word, have at it. I'm done.

 

[AROS]

Hand shake and move on gents.

 

[chris98251]

Don't want to be in desperation mode for a QB, would rather develop one, Green Bay did that several times and traded them or like Rodgers let him learn a bit from a veteran.

Or be like this.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

That is disturbing ^^

Talk about a train wreck of a franchise.

 

[Parallax]

So true. And now they've destroyed themselves for the foreseeable future with that idiotic Watson trade and contract. I get pissed about some of the boneheaded, inefficient decisions made by the Hawks but they are nothing next to that train wreck of a franchise.

I guess one could say, "Well, they made the playoffs". No thanks! They'll never make progress with that Watson contract hanging like an albatross around the franchise. Plus all the bad karma for helping to make sure he'd never be held accountable for his misdeeds. The entitled athlete writ large.