Geno Trade Value?

[Parallax]

We literally saw lock just last year and he didn't look good despite it being his 4th season. Geno played the first two years, then went 5 years throwing 101 total passes.

The situations literally aren't comparable,and even if they were it's a dumb idea to expect to get lucky twice with it, lock ain't the dude

What surprises me is how people are so locked in on this idea that "Lock isn't the guy". One hears it again and again, and yet look at how he played in the preseason. And then look at that touchdown drive he led to win the Eagles game. Sure, most of the game he didn't look nearly as good. When he came into the San Francisco game, he showed less than nothing. But we've seen guys blossom with the right support. Geno is an example and Lock has way more natural talent.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Geno Bridgewater will fetch a 6th rounder and we'll still be on the hook for any dead money.

 

[bigcc]

Yes, I agree. Geno doesn't have any particular appeal. San Francisco tried to insist on major compensation for Garropolo in 2022. No one took them up on it but rather hung back waiting for the guy to be cut. The 49ers took the $20M cap hit to keep him on the roster. The injury to Lance made that look smart until Jimmy was injured too.

My preference would be to shop him around and take the best offer if there is one. But, more likely, when there's not, just cut him. Take the full cap hit this year. Let's get Geno off the books as soon as possible. Same for Adams and Diggs. Dissley too, unless he'll renegotiate. Not sure we should by paying Meyers as if he were the second coming of Gary Anderson or Justin Tucker.

I agree with you about geno, bit different on the others though. Obviously depends on what Macdonald wants with these two, but according to otc restructuring jamal saves 7.6 mil, and extending diggs saves 7.4.

If we're moving on full speed, trade diggs (unlike geno, can probably get something here) at anytime, try to trade jamal post June 1 (never know) otherwise cut him (I think Mac will try to see what he can do with him though), extend dissly (saves 4.3 vs 7 for cutting him)

Cutting Myers saves 3.6 mil but has to be post June 1 or we lose cap room lol, I think he's not going anywhere though.

You didn't mention lockett though, extension saves 11.3 mil, Restructure 7.0, post June 1 trade(or cut but he'd have a market) 17 mil

He can't just sit there and collect 27 mil the next two years placing him 7th highest paid wr both years, prime lockett wouldn't be worth that let alone 32/33 year old lockett.... I personally lean towards extend (Restructure doesn't really help with a 2 year contract) unless Lockett's trade value is higher than I'd expect it to be.

Cut mone to save 5.4 mil, not much to think about here.

Cut bellore to save 2.85, I like him as a ST player but not for that price

 

[bigcc]

What surprises me is how people are so locked in on this idea that "Lock isn't the guy". One hears it again and again, and yet look at how he played in the preseason. And then look at that touchdown drive he led to win the Eagles game. Sure, most of the game he didn't look nearly as good. When he came into the San Francisco game, he showed less than nothing. But we've seen guys blossom with the right support. Geno is an example and Lock has way more natural talent.

And geno has more realized talent or lock would have won the job. Preseason means literally nothing and we've seen literally zero guys blossom under Macdonald as a head coach.

If we're not drafting a qb I'd prefer to just keep geno honestly, I hate his cap hit but if we aren't building for the future might as well live in the moment. We'll have to agree to disagree about lock because there's literally nothing anyone could tell me to, not even convince me it's a good idea, but to keep me from weeping about the prospect of watching lock for 17 games. I have literally zero interest in riding the lock experiment.

As a matter of fact I might have negative interest, because there's a good chance I'd watch redzone instead of the direct broadcasts on occasion.

He's a FA anyway and would have as much experience in the new offense as a rookie qb would, except a rookie has actual upside and would VERY likely be cheaper

 

[Parallax]

I agree with you about geno, bit different on the others though. Obviously depends on what Macdonald wants with these two, but according to otc restructuring jamal saves 7.6 mil, and extending diggs saves 7.4.

If we're moving on full speed, trade diggs (unlike geno, can probably get something here) at anytime, try to trade jamal post June 1 (never know) otherwise cut him (I think Mac will try to see what he can do with him though), extend dissly (saves 4.3 vs 7 for cutting him)

Cutting Myers saves 3.6 mil but has to be post June 1 or we lose cap room lol, I think he's not going anywhere though.

You didn't mention lockett though, extension saves 11.3 mil, Restructure 7.0, post June 1 trade(or cut but he'd have a market) 17 mil

He can't just sit there and collect 27 mil the next two years placing him 7th highest paid wr both years, prime lockett wouldn't be worth that let alone 32/33 year old lockett.... I personally lean towards extend (Restructure doesn't really help with a 2 year contract) unless Lockett's trade value is higher than I'd expect it to be.

Cut mone to save 5.4 mil, not much to think about here.

Cut bellore to save 2.85, I like him as a ST player but not for that price

Mostly agree. I don't see Diggs having trade value given his performance last season and his contract. No way could I see anyone picking up Adams' contract. Didn't help himself with his exploits. Might make sense to extend Dissley. Depends on the value a new OC sees in him and also whether we can afford to resign Fant, who is objectively a lot more talented. Dissley has value though. We just had so many weapons last year and couldn't employ them all. Needed to spend more on the trenches.

Meyers probably stays but maybe not. Perhaps he battles it out with a rookie UDFA who's given a real shot. Maybe now that Carroll's gone, a kid like that would be willing to take a shot with our team.

I can't see restructuring Lockett. Just kicks the can down the road when his skills are clearly in decline. Don't know if it will happen this year but at some point he'll be traded or cut. I could see him having value to the right team, particularly just before the trade deadline mid-season, when some contending team finds itself a receiver short.

I agree that Mone is gone. Bellore too. Would be surprised if either of those guys were signed even if they were willing to take less. I agree that Bellore's great on special teams but we can get by without him and have lots of other priorities.

 

[hgwellz12]

I'd trade Lock first.

I never once thought Geno was our future. But I want to draft a QB, and am more than comfortable having Geno start while the new guy learns, and I think Geno would be a better mentor than Lock.

He's gonna be an excellent mentor for the young QB OTF. He's battled, successfully, through some REAL setbacks and unique adversity and came out of it all pretty freaking golden. My respect for Geno has grown immensely since the start of last season.

 

[Parallax]

He's gonna be an excellent mentor for the young QB OTF. He's battled, successfully, through some REAL setbacks and unique adversity and came out of it all pretty freaking golden. My respect for Geno has grown immensely since the start of last season.

I'd agree if we could keep him for $10M per year. He'd probably have more to offer a rookie QB than Lock. But we will have a great QB coach under a great OC I'm sure, so I think we'd be fine with Lock.

 

[bigcc]

You know, I could get reacting to my comment like this with derision and laughter if I just posted "second round, f*** you!" but I literally posted the most recent trade that I'm basing this off of, which was for a 36 year old quarterback in obvious arm decline coming off several seasons that were analogous to Geno's 2023 season.

Daunte Culpepper for a second in 2006 and Matt Ryan for a third in 2022 leads me to a second round valuation for Geno currently when considering contract, age, and his 2 season sample of starting play.

If we remove Geno's name from the equation, it sounds better because Geno earned a rep as a draft bust. The trade would be for 2 years of better-than-market-price team control on a mid-range starting quarterback with upside to float into fringe top 10 status on a team that has a complementary defense and running game.

Is the trade something I personally would do as a rival GM? Probably not. I'd try to go young. But there is historical and logical precedent for the valuation I landed at, and it only takes one bite in the same league that saw an obvious bust in Sam Bradford net a first and a fourth rounder from the Vikings within this decade.

PS: Starting quarterbacks are available for trade like this very, very rarely. The trade would be to secure his rights and avoid the competition on the free agent market, which would be significant in the current free agency landscape.

You’re right and I actually apologize, I somehow missed the matt Ryan portion so I honed in on the Bradford portion, which is an outlier, the ryan/culpepper comparisons make much more sense so again, my bad.

That being said, I still just don't see it happening. Why trade for Geno when you could shoot your luck trading for Fields or lance and build for the future. Geno has had one of the better receiving groups in the league the last two years. Then there's the 6 QB's that will almost certainly go before the 3rd round. Then there's free agency which sees:

Browning, Dobbs, Wentz, lock, Rudolph, flacco, Bridgewater, minshew, baker, jameis, mariota, tyrod, brissett, darnold, tannehill, cousins, Russ (almost assuredly)

All available. All don't cost a single draft pick. Nearly all of them won't cost the 14 mil (I might be wrong on this part, could be more or less expensive depending on when it happens, safe guess though) that geno will.

It's unfortunately a TERRIBLE market this year to try to move a qb.

All those taken into consideration, I think it's extremely unrealistic to expect a 2nd, and I don't think we'd get anything because with all the options, teams aren't going to throw picks at us just to keep geno off the market.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Again.... Lock is an unrestricted free agent and can't be traded.

Plus, he'll probably be signed by some other team.

The OP was asking only about Geno's trade value and the answer is: around a 6th rounder and a portion of his contract.

This is what the going rate is for QBs like Bridgewater, Dobbs, Darnold, and Tyrod Taylor.

 

[Parallax]

I see Geno and Lock as standing on similar ground because we can cut Geno with minimal cost. Doesn't make sense to keep him on his existing contract. So once cut, the team can negotiate with one or both or neither, as it sees fit.

The only difference is Geno may have trade value. I hope he does but would be surprised. If Garoppolo didn't when the 49ers had to move him, why is this different? The cap hit was about the same.

 

[chris98251]

There is a list of guys that are available as stop gap QB's, why would you trade for someone that is close to those in talent and lose a pick?

 

[bigcc]

Mostly agree. I don't see Diggs having trade value given his performance last season and his contract. No way could I see anyone picking up Adams' contract. Didn't help himself with his exploits. Might make sense to extend Dissley. Depends on the value a new OC sees in him and also whether we can afford to resign Fant, who is objectively a lot more talented. Dissley has value though. We just had so many weapons last year and couldn't employ them all. Needed to spend more on the trenches.

Meyers probably stays but maybe not. Perhaps he battles it out with a rookie UDFA who's given a real shot. Maybe now that Carroll's gone, a kid like that would be willing to take a shot with our team.

I can't see restructuring Lockett. Just kicks the can down the road when his skills are clearly in decline. Don't know if it will happen this year but at some point he'll be traded or cut. I could see him having value to the right team, particularly just before the trade deadline mid-season, when some contending team finds itself a receiver short.

I agree that Mone is gone. Bellore too. Would be surprised if either of those guys were signed even if they were willing to take less. I agree that Bellore's great on special teams but we can get by without him and have lots of other priorities.

You’re right about jamal, did my math wrong nobody is trading for him. Cutting him pre June 1 saves 6 mil, at that point you might as well let it roll through and let mac see him in practice and where he's at.

With diggs, whoever traded for him would be paying him as the 8th highest paid fs (fair enough) and would get a 4th round comp pick (per otc) if they let him walk after that year.

So if you need a fs, why not send over a 5th, enjoy the year, and get a 4th as a comp. We can move him, but unless we can't create enough cap room elsewhere I'd prefer keeping diggs to see what Macdonald can do with him and get the comp ourselves tbh, but I won't shed any tears regardless of the outcome.

TE will depend on what the new OC wants to do, but I was personally operating under the assumption that Fant is gone (just a hunch on my end).

I'm all for bringing in a udfa k to battle for it.

I don't think there's a chance lockett is cut (this year at least), I agree with you about restructuring, but a 2 year extension could help smooth things out. 27/yr is untenable, and lockett will be 34 at the start of the season after current contract ends. He's not getting another big one. 2 years let's him retire a Hawk at 35, ensures he's paid that long in case he loses a step, and extending him for something like 2/20 (mid 30s,10 mil puts you around 30th in wr average) would soften 2/27.5/yr, to 4/18.75/yr.
Wouldn't be much guaranteed in the new 2 years so between that and pushing some of the burden backwards, divorcing him () would be much easier in a couple of years than it would be now.

One thing I can say for sure, Schneider has a busy offseason ahead of him

 

[DarkVictory23]

What surprises me is how people are so locked in on this idea that "Lock isn't the guy". One hears it again and again, and yet look at how he played in the preseason. And then look at that touchdown drive he led to win the Eagles game. Sure, most of the game he didn't look nearly as good. When he came into the San Francisco game, he showed less than nothing. But we've seen guys blossom with the right support. Geno is an example and Lock has way more natural talent.

I'm equally dumbfounded by people who are stuck on the idea that 'Geno isn't the guy' (well, age notwithstanding) and then spout stuff about Lock having way more natural talent.

What is that based on? He didn't have a better college career, he was below Geno in most measurables in their respective combines, and while we all know that Geno had a terrible start to his career, his career numbers are still better than Lock's (as are their respective Seattle-only numbers).


I am not stuck on thinking 'Lock isn't the guy', just that the 'upside' and 'potential' is just another way of saying Lock is younger. But even that doesn't seem to manifest itself in any sort of apparent benefit. The younger, supposedly more athletic Lock gained less yards when he ran or scrambled and was much worse at avoiding sacks.

Put it this way: Easton Stick, who until this year had thrown all of 1 NFL regular season pass since joining the Chargers in 2019, was closer to Justin Herbert's performance level than Drew was to matching Geno's.

 

[bigcc]

I'd agree if we could keep him for $10M per year. He'd probably have more to offer a rookie QB than Lock. But we will have a great QB coach under a great OC I'm sure, so I think we'd be fine with Lock.

I really don't think we're keeping lock.

Between new HC/OC I doubt they're going to be interested in him, geno is more debatable due to still being under contract, but I don't think anyone cares about lock lol, he was only included in the trade to hedge the bet since geno hadn't shown he's capable yet (obviously).

I'd keep geno in a heartbeat at 10 because he'd actually have trade value then , but in all seriousness, if you (speaking generally not you specifically) are being honest with yourself, do you really think that it's worth keeping geno for the 2 years when we could have saved ~40 mil, and those two years are learning a new playbook? Before waldron, geno had 101 pass attempts between 2015 and 2021.

Different story entirely if geno was 28, but he'll be closing on 36 by the time his contract ends.

It's time to move on

 

[DarkVictory23]

I really don't think we're keeping lock.

Between new HC/OC I doubt they're going to be interested in him, geno is more debatable due to still being under contract, but I don't think anyone cares about lock lol, he was only included in the trade to hedge the bet since geno hadn't shown he's capable yet (obviously).

I'd keep geno in a heartbeat at 10 because he'd actually have trade value then , but in all seriousness, if you (speaking generally not you specifically) are being honest with yourself, do you really think that it's worth keeping geno for the 2 years when we could have saved ~40 mil, and those two years are learning a new playbook? Before waldron, geno had 101 pass attempts between 2015 and 2021.

Different story entirely if geno was 28, but he'll be closing on 36 by the time his contract ends.

It's time to move on

I think this will almost be entirely based on whether they want to win next year or not. Are we 'rebuilding'? Yes. But what's the approach going to be? That remains to be seen.

We'll learn a lot based on what moves they make, but I think dealing/cutting Geno will be the biggest clue which way they intend to approach it.

I personally think the smart play is to restructure Geno and try to draft a QBOTF either this year or next year (I'm trusting John to know whether a guy he likes is going to be available at the right points in the draft, I don't watch enough college ball to even pretend to know who they should be looking for this year) and have Geno be there so our rookie doesn't get thrown to the wolves.

Lock is already making too much for his level of backup play and I expect his agent is going to be able to get him more based on that game-winning drive against Philly so he's probably gone regardless and is essentially a non-factor.

EDIT: Just a little devil's advocate thought I had for why the team might keep Lock: If the Seahawks plan to blow everything up but don't want to appear to be tanking to the fans. Lock could be their PR move signing at QB.

 

[TwilightError]

The only possible trade is a salary dump, where some team possibly gives a sixth for our seventh and Geno.

 

[Ozzy]

View attachment 64501

It’s true though.

 

[Maelstrom787]

It’s true though.

I get it, but shit man. At least add to the conversation. I explained my reasoning, so why would you reply with a simple "haha no?" That just kills discourse.

I can present some counter-arguments to my own post, if it helps.

For one, Geno has a reputation as a draft bust that he'll never shake. First impressions and all. Implicit bias will negatively affect perception of him.

Secondly, Geno is aging, decreasing his value. How much? Indeterminate.

Thirdly, this is a fairly deep quarterback draft and the teams who would possibly want a mid-range starter (like Las Vegas and New England for example) are in position to secure quarterbacks in the draft should they desire any of the options available to them. The market could evaporate, as it'd require a specific fit.

Fourth, Kirk Cousins is in this free agency class and is a better option for a team who wants to secure a short-term starter.

That said, despite this, I'd hold firm on a second as far as his current value goes given his contract and caliber of play as displayed during the past 2 years. Firmly a tier 3 quarterback.

 

[Ozzy]

View attachment 64501

He’s 33, regressed from the year before, finished 14-17 by most metrics with multiple dudes hurt. No one is going to pay him 35 million and give up a second round pick. You can be snarky all you want but it’s just not happening. And if a team is ran terribly and they do make that move then props to Geno for getting his.

He’s a good QB but that’s a lot to mortgage a ton of resources away. Ryan had a decade of really, really good play and it was still a dumb decision by them to pay what they did.

Maybe the league knows more than I do and they think Waldron/Pete really held him back and he’s better than I think….its entirely possible. We shall see.

 

[Parallax]

I think this will almost be entirely based on whether they want to win next year or not. Are we 'rebuilding'? Yes. But what's the approach going to be? That remains to be seen.

We'll learn a lot based on what moves they make, but I think dealing/cutting Geno will be the biggest clue which way they intend to approach it.

I personally think the smart play is to restructure Geno and try to draft a QBOTF either this year or next year (I'm trusting John to know whether a guy he likes is going to be available at the right points in the draft, I don't watch enough college ball to even pretend to know who they should be looking for this year) and have Geno be there so our rookie doesn't get thrown to the wolves.

Lock is already making too much for his level of backup play and I expect his agent is going to be able to get him more based on that game-winning drive against Philly so he's probably gone regardless and is essentially a non-factor.

EDIT: Just a little devil's advocate thought I had for why the team might keep Lock: If the Seahawks plan to blow everything up but don't want to appear to be tanking to the fans. Lock could be their PR move signing at QB.

What if our OC looks at that game winning drive and thinks he could get something out of Lock?