Geno comparative stats this season

Rat

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
11,371
Reaction score
6,502
Location
Grand Rapids, MI
I don't think Geno is having a crazy amount of TDs vultured from him or anything. It looks like we're eighth in rushing TDs, but there are another seven teams within two of that. Its probably at least somewhat reflected in his red zone struggles. Even in a down year for QB stats, 12 TDs ranks just 19th, and that's a guy who is second in the league in passing attempts. And 12:12 is an awful ratio. Only three QBs who have started more than two games this year have a worse ratio: Gardner Minshew (9:10), Anthony Richardson (5:7), and Bryce Young (5:6). The one guy with more passing attempts (just three more ) is Joe Burrow, who has 27 TDs to 4 INTs.

I'm sure there's good reasons that some of his numbers look pedestrian, but some of these excuses for him seem to assume that no other QBs have the same issues.
 

Flyingsquad23

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
1,566
Reaction score
725
Second most now. Burrow has three more. Also, more than twice as many TDs (27) and one-third of the INTs (4).
And he is also 4-7…

Geno is in a unique position, he doesn’t have to play significantly better for this offense to be a legit threat. If they can get better than marginal improvement from the O-line and Geno cleans up 2 throws a game the stats will improve.
I think Grubb still has a lot of depth to his playbook that hasn’t been fully worked out. If they can lock in and the D keeps improving this team could be a contender.
 

West TX Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2013
Messages
2,506
Reaction score
33
I don't think Geno is having a crazy amount of TDs vultured from him or anything. It looks like we're eighth in rushing TDs, but there are another seven teams within two of that. Its probably at least somewhat reflected in his red zone struggles. Even in a down year for QB stats, 12 TDs ranks just 19th, and that's a guy who is second in the league in passing attempts. And 12:12 is an awful ratio. Only three QBs who have started more than two games this year have a worse ratio: Gardner Minshew (9:10), Anthony Richardson (5:7), and Bryce Young (5:6). The one guy with more passing attempts (just three more ) is Joe Burrow, who has 27 TDs to 4 INTs.

I'm sure there's good reasons that some of his numbers look pedestrian, but some of these excuses for him seem to assume that no other QBs have the same issues.
Something to keep in mind though- Only Wash and Phil have a higher % of TDs by run than Sea and obviously Hurts and Daniels are highly regarded. We are 16th in total TDs (including 13 rush TDs and 12 pass) and 2nd in passing offense.


So, 28 other teams (Chi has a similar % as us) all have a higher % of TDs by way of pass so this shows that Geno has led us to league average TD drives despite having a porous oline and lack of a rushing attack, with the irony of the majority of our TDs come by run, perhaps just by way of circumstance/play call. As this shows, it doesn’t mean, as some have argued, that his 12 TD passes indicate a lack of production or ineffectiveness. We wouldn’t be 2nd in passing offense if that were the case.

If the line improves, the total running game improves and hence, our total TDs will likely increase as well.
 
Last edited:

Shane Falco

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2010
Messages
2,332
Reaction score
1,443
Fair points I grant you. Could it be argued though that if our rushing game was even league average that our total team scoring would likely improve as well? Also would it be fair to say our trending down scoring output the last few games has more to do with the high quality of defensive teams we’ve faced?

Our rushing TD's are more than league average right now despite our poor rushing game. What I was saying is that unless you have an extraordinary run game, in TD's, like we had in 2005 with Shaun Alexander and his 25 TD's or whatever it was, then the QB needs to be more than what most fans refer to as a "game manager" type QB. He needs to score TD's to make up for that or overall the team is not going to score enough PPG to be considered a contender even with a good defense, they'd need an "generational all-time type defense" to have a chance.
 

Ozzy

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
11,647
Reaction score
6,495
i already posted about this in a different thread that documented every int in every game he had one.

Summary? He had 5 picks in 'scoring position', not necessarily the redzone, one that was a PI that wasnt called and another where his arm was hit. The other 3, 100% his fault.

The other 7 werent in scoring position and with the exception of 1 were tipped, deflected or 'non catches'

Simple fact is he ISNT a turnover machine in that he is consistently making poor throws and turning the ball over (the stats bare that out)

As to TDs - Folks forget that through 6 games we led the league in rushing TDs despite our rushing game sucking. Its not that Geno couldnt throw TDs instead, its that the gameplan simply didnt call for it. - ie its not his fault we scored when we handed it off, especially considering it was no credit to the rushing game that we got into scoring position in the first place.

In Detroit, week 2, in arguably one of the best games any QB has played this year, we scored 4 TDS, with our passing game only accounting for 1. Was that Geno not being capable? No. he was downright surgical that game.

Through week 7, we averaged around 26 points per game. In other words we had no problem scoring. The fact that we scored on the ground didnt mean we couldnt score through the air.

Since? we have averaged less than 17 point per game.

Our offense overall has been stagnant since week 7. But since week 7, Geno is completing 70.6% of his passes. He's had 2 pretty bad INTs (just bad decisions) and 4 that were debatable - hit arm, pass off of JSN, the non PI call on Barner, and the batted pass against Buffalo.

I also think the overall number of stupid procedural errors, bad snaps, stepped on feet coming from under center, many of which have occured in scoring position have been pushed on Geno because in the case of the Bills game, they involved him.

I guarantee you that if you tallied the number of drives that were killed due to big play, drive extending plays or scoring plays that have been called back because of a hold, an illegal shift, or other idiotic penalty, those situations FAR outnumber the 2.x percent of Geno's passes that have been picked off. But those things are easy to forget.

- The 42 yard strike to JSN against the Giants that would have put us in scoring position - called back for a hold or illegal man downfield.
- the fumble by DK in the redzone against the Giants. - Likely points taken off.
- the fumble by DK on the 1st half drive that would have put us in scoring position against the Lions - we were scoring at will that game...
- The illegal shift on Walker that called back a TD by DK in the first 9ers game.
- The non catch by DK in the endzone in the frst 9ers game.
- The bad route by DK that led to the 2nd INT in the first 9ers game
- The drive extending catch by JSN that was called back on a OPI by Tyler in the first 9ers game
- The snap over his head against Buffalo in the redzone - was a passing play on a drive we passed all the way down the field on them. we likely score there.
- The play he got stepped on coming from under center - again in scoring position. he was 21-29 that game...

That batch of plays accounts for potentially 7 Tds (2 actually were) and a pick.

Thats just off the top of my head.

The issue with boneheaded mistakes that cost us games this season were SO bad that they were a topic of discussion in a postgame presser and were further elaborated on by Tyler in an interview after the loss to the 9ers this year. Even commentators noted that we'd cost ourselves games due to mental errors at a staggering rate.

But those errors seem to have been forgotten. Maybe its just recency bias because Geno HAS thrown dumb passes in the last 2 games that were beyond a shadow of doubt his stupid errors and he is largely faulted for the 3 INTS against the Rams. Stacked on an already low TD number and the inordinately high number of self inflicted errors on the part of the offense, i can see how it all looks like the QB.

But putting the blame there without looking at the rest is just an oversimplification.

And i say that ackowledging the stupid plays geno has made even beyond the INTs - I've mentioned the backpedal sacks which have killed drives many times. But this isnt an issue of the QB not being able to score, or the QB being INT prone. It just isnt. It includes the QB, no doubt. If he doesnt play better, given the structure of this offense, we have no chance. But to say - if we had a better QB, we would be fine... who? Mahomes? sure. ok. Allen? Jackson or another mobile guy who could avoid pressure? Sure. But is there a list of 10 QBS that would play better? I'll debate that all day. And even if they were better than Geno, our offense wouldnt be 'ok'. No QB is taking this team, with its bottom 1/4 ranked o-line and bottom 4 ranked rushing game anywhere.

At the end of the day, is having the 10th or 11th best QB in the league good enough to contend? Yeah. It should be. If it isnt, that should be an OBVIOUS sign you have pretty significant issues elsewhere.
I disagree on how you judged a few of his picks. The one to Charbonnet in his end zone he waited too long and saw the pressure.

Also just because your arm is hit doesn’t mean the INT isn’t your fault. Did he not feel the pocket? Did he hold it too long? Were their other wide open guys he fla tour didn’t see? It seems like you graded each one in an effort to confirm your prior. 3-4 of them that you said weren’t his fault would absolutely attribute at a minimum some of the blame on him and more than one almost solely on him.

He’s just not the 10th best QB in football this year. His mistakes when they happen are often so bad that it’s hard to believe a 12 year vet is making them. That’s what is missed by some of the “advanced metrics” people site. We know he’s accurate. It’s his mistakes that hold him back.

Heck in this last game after the terrible pick he almost had another massive mistake on his very next throw but the defender dropped it. That doesn’t show up on an EPA list or ADOT chart.
 

12forlife

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 17, 2018
Messages
792
Reaction score
557
I got on ESPN and ran some numbers. At this point, Geno has the most INTs this year at 12. 2 other QB have 11, 2 have 10, and 5 have 9 (that makes the top 10 INT QBs). Sounds terrible for us, right? Well, check this out when comparing INTs to attempts: (I will do a similar chart later for the INTs per yard for the 7 members of this list who are also top-10 QBs by total yards... I wish we had less dumb INTs, but I don't think it's as dire as it seems.)
WhoINTsAttINTs per Att%
Levis92030.04434.43
Love112800.03933.93
Minshew103060.03273.27
Darnold103270.03063.06
Smith124050.02962.96
Goff93060.02942.94
Mahomes113810.02892.89
Cousins93600.02502.50
Mayfield93740.02412.41
Stroud93960.02272.27
Why don't you crunch some numbers and show everyone his td passing & rushing. It's not only that he is leading the league in Ints, he also is towards the bottom in TD production
 

keasley45

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 4, 2010
Messages
5,008
Reaction score
9,107
Location
Cockeysville, Md
I disagree on how you judged a few of his picks. The one to Charbonnet in his end zone he waited too long and saw the pressure.

Also just because your arm is hit doesn’t mean the INT isn’t your fault. Did he not feel the pocket? Did he hold it too long? Were their other wide open guys he fla tour didn’t see? It seems like you graded each one in an effort to confirm your prior. 3-4 of them that you said weren’t his fault would absolutely attribute at a minimum some of the blame on him and more than one almost solely on him.

He’s just not the 10th best QB in football this year. His mistakes when they happen are often so bad that it’s hard to believe a 12 year vet is making them. That’s what is missed by some of the “advanced metrics” people site. We know he’s accurate. It’s his mistakes that hold him back.

Heck in this last game after the terrible pick he almost had another massive mistake on his very next throw but the defender dropped it. That doesn’t show up on an EPA list or ADOT chart.
Season isnt over yet. We will see where he ends up.
 

Ozzy

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
11,647
Reaction score
6,495
Season isnt over yet. We will see where he ends up.
And heck it wouldn’t surprise me if he played lights out, I think that’s what is frustrating for me. Who knows the pieces seem to be coming together. The defense looks really good and the line is at least playing better. I’m hoping for it
 
OP
OP
GeekHawk

GeekHawk

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
9,031
Reaction score
1,778
Location
Orting WA, Great Northwet
Why don't you crunch some numbers and show everyone his td passing & rushing. It's not only that he is leading the league in Ints, he also is towards the bottom in TD production
How about if *you* crunch some numbers to support what you said, rather than sitting in the peanut gallery and heckling?
 

Ozzy

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
11,647
Reaction score
6,495
I don't think Geno is having a crazy amount of TDs vultured from him or anything. It looks like we're eighth in rushing TDs, but there are another seven teams within two of that. Its probably at least somewhat reflected in his red zone struggles. Even in a down year for QB stats, 12 TDs ranks just 19th, and that's a guy who is second in the league in passing attempts. And 12:12 is an awful ratio. Only three QBs who have started more than two games this year have a worse ratio: Gardner Minshew (9:10), Anthony Richardson (5:7), and Bryce Young (5:6). The one guy with more passing attempts (just three more ) is Joe Burrow, who has 27 TDs to 4 INTs.

I'm sure there's good reasons that some of his numbers look pedestrian, but some of these excuses for him seem to assume that no other QBs have the same issues.

This is one of the best and most objective posts on the topic. It's fair to Geno but also doesn't try to remove all blame from him.

Bengals line is about the same as the Seahawks yet he has 27-4 numbers. If you guys have Geno in the top 10 then you better have Burrow as all time top 5 since he is blowing Geno out of the water under the same conditions.
 

Flyingsquad23

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
1,566
Reaction score
725
And once again Joe Burrow has his team at 4-7 and fighting to avoid a losing season…
Two games vs. the Ravens he had 9/1 TD/int and lost both games.
 

Natethegreat

Well-known member
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
3,197
Reaction score
1,355
And once again Joe Burrow has his team at 4-7 and fighting to avoid a losing season…
Two games vs. the Ravens he had 9/1 TD/int and lost both games.
He is 4-7 so far this year but he has also gone to the super bowl and almost won as well. I don't think arguing that a QB is 4-7 in one moment of time is a very strong argument. Not even sure why you keep bringing it up.
He is a clearly superior QB to Geno who deals with a bad O line and a pretty inept running game who still gets it done.
Cincy D is horrendously bad
 
Last edited:

Ostatehawk

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
1,132
Reaction score
1,383
I have my book of Crow recipes ready, very much ready to make some up.
I with you Soul - I will happily eat crow - and have. But IMO it isn't unreasonable to have concerns about Geno.

My level of faith that Geno won't screw the pooch when we need him to perform most with a ridiculous sack, or inexplicable interception, or intentional grounding penalty, is low. He has managed to get it done the last couple games - and I am thrilled by that. But I am still less than confident he can keep it up.
 

pittpnthrs

Well-known member
Joined
May 19, 2017
Messages
6,320
Reaction score
3,201
He’s just going to be too expensive. Best let him walk and try the market again. If it’s barren then let him come back cheap. If not, then sign someone cheap and draft a QB to work on (should draft one regardless if he comes back or not).

Either way some players have to be let go and Geno being a 34 year old journeyman QB reverting to bad habits he’s had his entire career with no playoff wins is not worth a huge chunk of change.

Post of the year
 

Latest posts

Top