Geno comparative stats this season

GeekHawk

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I got on ESPN and ran some numbers. At this point, Geno has the most INTs this year at 12. 2 other QB have 11, 2 have 10, and 5 have 9 (that makes the top 10 INT QBs). Sounds terrible for us, right? Well, check this out when comparing INTs to attempts: (I will do a similar chart later for the INTs per yard for the 7 members of this list who are also top-10 QBs by total yards... I wish we had less dumb INTs, but I don't think it's as dire as it seems.)
WhoINTsAttINTs per Att%
Levis92030.04434.43
Love112800.03933.93
Minshew103060.03273.27
Darnold103270.03063.06
Smith124050.02962.96
Goff93060.02942.94
Mahomes113810.02892.89
Cousins93600.02502.50
Mayfield93740.02412.41
Stroud93960.02272.27
 

RRR

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I got on ESPN and ran some numbers. At this point, Geno has the most INTs this year at 12. 2 other QB have 11, 2 have 10, and 5 have 9 (that makes the top 10 INT QBs). Sounds terrible for us, right? Well, check this out when comparing INTs to attempts: (I will do a similar chart later for the INTs per yard for the 7 members of this list who are also top-10 QBs by total yards... I wish we had less dumb INTs, but I don't think it's as dire as it seems.)
WhoINTsAttINTs per Att%
Levis92030.04434.43
Love112800.03933.93
Minshew103060.03273.27
Darnold103270.03063.06
Smith124050.02962.96
Goff93060.02942.94
Mahomes113810.02892.89
Cousins93600.02502.50
Mayfield93740.02412.41
Stroud93960.02272.27
How about red zone interceptions? How about touchdowns (12) as a percentage of attempts. That will give the true picture.
 

Nosferatu

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How about red zone interceptions? How about touchdowns (12) as a percentage of attempts. That will give the true picture.
Geno tied with Sam Darnold for most red zone interceptions: 4. Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones are next with 3.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/red-zone-stats/qb.php

TDs as percent of attempts, Geno is 30th at 3%.
 
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GeekHawk

GeekHawk

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My next one will be ints vs yards per game for the QBs who are top-10 in both categories. I think that TD passes can be a fairly stupid stat to hang your hat on. Take it to the logical conclusion - a QB passes for 98 yards every possession, the RB gets the TD every time, and the QB looks like the worst one in history. Ever. The QB stat of TD passes is greatly over-rated without a whole lot of accompanying information.
 

SeaWolv

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You also have to factor in pressure rate. If the OLine can't give him time to make a throw, how much of that is on him or on them? Geno's average time to throw is 2.4 seconds which puts him in the middle of all QB's with at least 8 games. Hurts and Darnold have the longest time to throw at 2.7 seconds. Purdy is at 2.6. Five QBs are at 2.5, thirteen QBs at 2.4 (including Geno), seven QBs at 2.3 and three QBs at 2.2.
 

West TX Hawk

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My next one will be ints vs yards per game for the QBs who are top-10 in both categories. I think that TD passes can be a fairly stupid stat to hang your hat on. Take it to the logical conclusion - a QB passes for 98 yards every possession, the RB gets the TD every time, and the QB looks like the worst one in history. Ever. The QB stat of TD passes is greatly over-rated without a whole lot of accompanying information.
Definitely this! People have become so obsessed with TD passes, likely due to fantasy leagues, and have failed to look at the objective of the QB—lead your team to TD drives and scoring drives to help your team win.

Who cares if your team scores a TD by pass, a TD run by the RB or QB, or a jet sweep by a WR? It’s a team TD. If a QB leads a successful scoring drive and goes 5/6 for 50 yards and then on 1st and goal the RB takes it in then the QB’s objective is achieved. They really need to change these archaic box score stats to include scoring/TD drives led by the QB (along with first downs).
 

Hollandhawk

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My next one will be ints vs yards per game for the QBs who are top-10 in both categories. I think that TD passes can be a fairly stupid stat to hang your hat on. Take it to the logical conclusion - a QB passes for 98 yards every possession, the RB gets the TD every time, and the QB looks like the worst one in history. Ever. The QB stat of TD passes is greatly over-rated without a whole lot of accompanying information.
Meh, most teams hover around a 50/50 rate when it comes to throwing TD VS running TD. The Seahawks do as well (12 pass/13 runs). This is not an excuse for Geno’s crap ratio.
 
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Shane Falco

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Definitely this! People have become so obsessed with TD passes, likely due to fantasy leagues, and have failed to look at the objective of the QB—lead your team to TD drives and scoring drives to help your team win.

Who cares if your team scores a TD by pass, a TD run by the RB or QB, or a jet sweep by a WR? It’s a team TD. If a QB leads a successful scoring drive and goes 5/6 for 50 yards and then on 1st and goal the RB takes it in then the QB’s objective is achieved. They really need to change these archaic box score stats to include scoring/TD drives led by the QB (along with first downs).

Last time I checked there is only two things that matter in football in a nutshell, scoring TD's and preventing TD's. Sure it doesn't matter where they are coming from.... as long as you are scoring them. We are only middle of the pack in PPG and trending downward - 20 or less each of the past 4 games.

Show me the top QB's in TD's and I'll show you the top scoring offenses the majority of the time. I guess that's why they pay those guys $25M-$50M a year these days.

Unless you got a rushing team like we did in '05 then a QB's TD count does matter a whole lot.
 

Seahawk_Dan

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Geno is not worthy of a new contract.
He’s just going to be too expensive. Best let him walk and try the market again. If it’s barren then let him come back cheap. If not, then sign someone cheap and draft a QB to work on (should draft one regardless if he comes back or not).

Either way some players have to be let go and Geno being a 34 year old journeyman QB reverting to bad habits he’s had his entire career with no playoff wins is not worth a huge chunk of change.
 

keasley45

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How about red zone interceptions? How about touchdowns (12) as a percentage of attempts. That will give the true picture.
i already posted about this in a different thread that documented every int in every game he had one.

Summary? He had 5 picks in 'scoring position', not necessarily the redzone, one that was a PI that wasnt called and another where his arm was hit. The other 3, 100% his fault.

The other 7 werent in scoring position and with the exception of 1 were tipped, deflected or 'non catches'

Simple fact is he ISNT a turnover machine in that he is consistently making poor throws and turning the ball over (the stats bare that out)

As to TDs - Folks forget that through 6 games we led the league in rushing TDs despite our rushing game sucking. Its not that Geno couldnt throw TDs instead, its that the gameplan simply didnt call for it. - ie its not his fault we scored when we handed it off, especially considering it was no credit to the rushing game that we got into scoring position in the first place.

In Detroit, week 2, in arguably one of the best games any QB has played this year, we scored 4 TDS, with our passing game only accounting for 1. Was that Geno not being capable? No. he was downright surgical that game.

Through week 7, we averaged around 26 points per game. In other words we had no problem scoring. The fact that we scored on the ground didnt mean we couldnt score through the air.

Since? we have averaged less than 17 point per game.

Our offense overall has been stagnant since week 7. But since week 7, Geno is completing 70.6% of his passes. He's had 2 pretty bad INTs (just bad decisions) and 4 that were debatable - hit arm, pass off of JSN, the non PI call on Barner, and the batted pass against Buffalo.

I also think the overall number of stupid procedural errors, bad snaps, stepped on feet coming from under center, many of which have occured in scoring position have been pushed on Geno because in the case of the Bills game, they involved him.

I guarantee you that if you tallied the number of drives that were killed due to big play, drive extending plays or scoring plays that have been called back because of a hold, an illegal shift, or other idiotic penalty, those situations FAR outnumber the 2.x percent of Geno's passes that have been picked off. But those things are easy to forget.

- The 42 yard strike to JSN against the Giants that would have put us in scoring position - called back for a hold or illegal man downfield.
- the fumble by DK in the redzone against the Giants. - Likely points taken off.
- the fumble by DK on the 1st half drive that would have put us in scoring position against the Lions - we were scoring at will that game...
- The illegal shift on Walker that called back a TD by DK in the first 9ers game.
- The non catch by DK in the endzone in the frst 9ers game.
- The bad route by DK that led to the 2nd INT in the first 9ers game
- The drive extending catch by JSN that was called back on a OPI by Tyler in the first 9ers game
- The snap over his head against Buffalo in the redzone - was a passing play on a drive we passed all the way down the field on them. we likely score there.
- The play he got stepped on coming from under center - again in scoring position. he was 21-29 that game...

That batch of plays accounts for potentially 7 Tds (2 actually were) and a pick.

Thats just off the top of my head.

The issue with boneheaded mistakes that cost us games this season were SO bad that they were a topic of discussion in a postgame presser and were further elaborated on by Tyler in an interview after the loss to the 9ers this year. Even commentators noted that we'd cost ourselves games due to mental errors at a staggering rate.

But those errors seem to have been forgotten. Maybe its just recency bias because Geno HAS thrown dumb passes in the last 2 games that were beyond a shadow of doubt his stupid errors and he is largely faulted for the 3 INTS against the Rams. Stacked on an already low TD number and the inordinately high number of self inflicted errors on the part of the offense, i can see how it all looks like the QB.

But putting the blame there without looking at the rest is just an oversimplification.

And i say that ackowledging the stupid plays geno has made even beyond the INTs - I've mentioned the backpedal sacks which have killed drives many times. But this isnt an issue of the QB not being able to score, or the QB being INT prone. It just isnt. It includes the QB, no doubt. If he doesnt play better, given the structure of this offense, we have no chance. But to say - if we had a better QB, we would be fine... who? Mahomes? sure. ok. Allen? Jackson or another mobile guy who could avoid pressure? Sure. But is there a list of 10 QBS that would play better? I'll debate that all day. And even if they were better than Geno, our offense wouldnt be 'ok'. No QB is taking this team, with its bottom 1/4 ranked o-line and bottom 4 ranked rushing game anywhere.

At the end of the day, is having the 10th or 11th best QB in the league good enough to contend? Yeah. It should be. If it isnt, that should be an OBVIOUS sign you have pretty significant issues elsewhere.
 

West TX Hawk

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i already posted about this in a different thread that documented every int in every game he had one.

Summary? He had 5 picks in 'scoring position', not necessarily the redzone, one that was a PI that wasnt called and another where his arm was hit. The other 3, 100% his fault.

The other 7 werent in scoring position and with the exception of 1 were tipped, deflected or 'non catches'

Simple fact is he ISNT a turnover machine in that he is consistently making poor throws and turning the ball over (the stats bare that out)

As to TDs - Folks forget that through 6 games we led the league in rushing TDs despite our rushing game sucking. Its not that Geno couldnt throw TDs instead, its that the gameplan simply didnt call for it. - ie its not his fault we scored when we handed it off, especially considering it was no credit to the rushing game that we got into scoring position in the first place.

In Detroit, week 2, in arguably one of the best games any QB has played this year, we scored 4 TDS, with our passing game only accounting for 1. Was that Geno not being capable? No. he was downright surgical that game.

Through week 7, we averaged around 26 points per game. In other words we had no problem scoring. The fact that we scored on the ground didnt mean we couldnt score through the air.

Since? we have averaged less than 17 point per game.

Our offense overall has been stagnant since week 7. But since week 7, Geno is completing 70.6% of his passes. He's had 2 pretty bad INTs (just bad decisions) and 4 that were debatable - hit arm, pass off of JSN, the non PI call on Barner, and the batted pass against Buffalo.

I also think the overall number of stupid procedural errors, bad snaps, stepped on feet coming from under center, many of which have occured in scoring position have been pushed on Geno because in the case of the Bills game, they involved him.

I guarantee you that if you tallied the number of drives that were killed due to big play, drive extending plays or scoring plays that have been called back because of a hold, an illegal shift, or other idiotic penalty, those situations FAR outnumber the 2.x percent of Geno's passes that have been picked off. But those things are easy to forget.

- The 42 yard strike to JSN against the Giants that would have put us in scoring position - called back for a hold or illegal man downfield.
- the fumble by DK in the redzone against the Giants. - Likely points taken off.
- the fumble by DK on the 1st half drive that would have put us in scoring position against the Lions - we were scoring at will that game...
- The illegal shift on Walker that called back a TD by DK in the first 9ers game.
- The non catch by DK in the endzone in the frst 9ers game.
- The bad route by DK that led to the 2nd INT in the first 9ers game
- The drive extending catch by JSN that was called back on a OPI by Tyler in the first 9ers game
- The snap over his head against Buffalo in the redzone - was a passing play on a drive we passed all the way down the field on them. we likely score there.
- The play he got stepped on coming from under center - again in scoring position. he was 21-29 that game...

That batch of plays accounts for potentially 7 Tds (2 actually were) and a pick.

Thats just off the top of my head.

The issue with boneheaded mistakes that cost us games this season were SO bad that they were a topic of discussion in a postgame presser and were further elaborated on by Tyler in an interview after the loss to the 9ers this year. Even commentators noted that we'd cost ourselves games due to mental errors at a staggering rate.

But those errors seem to have been forgotten. Maybe its just recency bias because Geno HAS thrown dumb passes in the last 2 games that were beyond a shadow of doubt his stupid errors and he is largely faulted for the 3 INTS against the Rams. Stacked on an already low TD number and the inordinately high number of self inflicted errors on the part of the offense, i can see how it all looks like the QB.

But putting the blame there without looking at the rest is just an oversimplification.

And i say that ackowledging the stupid plays geno has made even beyond the INTs - I've mentioned the backpedal sacks which have killed drives many times. But this isnt an issue of the QB not being able to score, or the QB being INT prone. It just isnt. It includes the QB, no doubt. If he doesnt play better, given the structure of this offense, we have no chance. But to say - if we had a better QB, we would be fine... who? Mahomes? sure. ok. Allen? Jackson or another mobile guy who could avoid pressure? Sure. But is there a list of 10 QBS that would play better? I'll debate that all day. And even if they were better than Geno, our offense wouldnt be 'ok'. No QB is taking this team, with its bottom 1/4 ranked o-line and bottom 4 ranked rushing game anywhere.

At the end of the day, is having the 10th or 11th best QB in the league good enough to contend? Yeah. It should be. If it isnt, that should be an OBVIOUS sign you have pretty significant issues elsewhere.
Great post and thank you Keasley for the good research that illustrates many points. I’d add that there’s an intangible aspect that many aren’t considering-can a QB overcome the adversity of a turnover (even if responsible for the TO) and still lead their team to win? Geno has proven the last couple weeks he can.

Every game is not going to go as planned and the clutch will still find a way to come back and finish the game strong. More people should recognize this but there seems to be an incredibly high, almost unobtainable threshold that people are holding Geno to-as if to completely discount his strong end of game performances if he had a single turnover or poor decision earlier in the game.

While we all would love a Mahomes clone, the reality is he’s a once in a generation player and guys like Allen and Jackson don’t come often. You would think people would be at least encouraged we’re 6-5 in a rebuilding year but so many here seemingly can’t wait to just get rid of ole Geno.
 

Sperrydogg

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I got on ESPN and ran some numbers. At this point, Geno has the most INTs this year at 12. 2 other QB have 11, 2 have 10, and 5 have 9 (that makes the top 10 INT QBs). Sounds terrible for us, right? Well, check this out when comparing INTs to attempts: (I will do a similar chart later for the INTs per yard for the 7 members of this list who are also top-10 QBs by total yards... I wish we had less dumb INTs, but I don't think it's as dire as it seems.)
WhoINTsAttINTs per Att%
Levis92030.04434.43
Love112800.03933.93
Minshew103060.03273.27
Darnold103270.03063.06
Smith124050.02962.96
Goff93060.02942.94
Mahomes113810.02892.89
Cousins93600.02502.50
Mayfield93740.02412.41
Stroud93960.02272.27
So he’s got the most picks and the fifth highest picks per attempt?
 

West TX Hawk

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Last time I checked there is only two things that matter in football in a nutshell, scoring TD's and preventing TD's. Sure it doesn't matter where they are coming from.... as long as you are scoring them. We are only middle of the pack in PPG and trending downward - 20 or less each of the past 4 games.

Show me the top QB's in TD's and I'll show you the top scoring offenses the majority of the time. I guess that's why they pay those guys $25M-$50M a year these days.

Unless you got a rushing team like we did in '05 then a QB's TD count does matter a whole lot.
Fair points I grant you. Could it be argued though that if our rushing game was even league average that our total team scoring would likely improve as well? Also would it be fair to say our trending down scoring output the last few games has more to do with the high quality of defensive teams we’ve faced?
 

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I don't mind a few Int's here & there, what's killing me is the bone headed int's he's thrown this year I can't defend them, A tipped pass, or a great play by the defender I can accept, but just throwing the ball right to the defender is inexcusable to me...
 
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