First round QB Boom or busts

[Kamcussionator]

Kind of a cool take. CBS rates all the first round QBs taken over the last 15 years.

tldr;

GRADE/TOTAL/PERCENT
Home run / 11 / 24%
Mixed result / 6 / 13%
Incomplete / 8 / 18%
Miss / 20 / 44%

2023 NFL Draft: Regrading every first-round QB pick over the last 15 years, from Trevor Lawrence to Joe Flacco

Here's how we grade them, from a home run to a miss

www.cbssports.com

 

[Appyhawk]

Good info and I like the gambling analogy. If I were to gamble it wouldn't be with pick #5. I would use that one for BPA at my position of greatest need.
I made my living for several years picking long shots. I learned when long shots were worth the risk and I never bet the farm in any case. We are short on cap space and have picked this high so seldom I would not risk it on a long shot.

 

[bileever]

Bold prediction: both Levis and Richardson will not go in the top 5. Richardson will go at the end of the first round, Levis not until the second round.

 

[bileever]

Fans and draft "experts" buy into picking a QB early more than teams do. Remember last year, when some were saying that the Seahawks would take Malik Willis in the first round? This one nfl.com mock draft had three QBs going in the first round--Pickett, Willis and Desmond Ridder:

Rhett Lewis 2022 NFL mock draft 1.0: Pass rushers fly off the board; Jets grab a wide receiver at No. 4

 

[Double Tribble]

Bold prediction: both Levis and Richardson will not go in the top 5. Richardson will go at the end of the first round, Levis not until the second round.

That is indeed a bold prediction. And you may well be right. I guess we'll see how much teams are willing to put value before need when picking qb's.

 

[AgentDib]

Fans and draft "experts" buy into picking a QB early more than teams do. Remember last year, when some were saying that the Seahawks would take Malik Willis in the first round? This one nfl.com mock draft had three QBs going in the first round--Pickett, Willis and Desmond Ridder:

Rhett Lewis 2022 NFL mock draft 1.0: Pass rushers fly off the board; Jets grab a wide receiver at No. 4

The only thing I would take away from 2022 is that every draft class is different because the players are different. 2022 had better top CBs and WRs than this class does and worse top QBs. We've had other years where the QBs went off the board faster than expected. My top QB last year was Ridder and I have McKee (QB 6) in that same tier this year.

 

[Chukarhawk]

Fans and draft "experts" buy into picking a QB early more than teams do. Remember last year, when some were saying that the Seahawks would take Malik Willis in the first round? This one nfl.com mock draft had three QBs going in the first round--Pickett, Willis and Desmond Ridder:

Rhett Lewis 2022 NFL mock draft 1.0: Pass rushers fly off the board; Jets grab a wide receiver at No. 4

good memory and Willis will be as successful as Richardson, which is to say out of the league shortly