End of Seahawks season mock draft

[Chevy]

Seahawks trade down from #20 to #24 picking up an extra 3rd round pick.

1st round #5 - (QB) Anthony Richardson 6'3" 238 lbs. Florida: Richardson has elite physical tool for the QB position. Cannon for an arm, great running QB, big guy who is difficult to bring down, and can make amazing throws. With our current offensive talent and the players, I selected in this draft, provides an amazing supporting cast for a rookie QB.





1st round #24 (from Chargers) - (OC) Sedrick Van Pran 6'4" 311 lbs. Georgia: SVP may end up being the top interior lineman drafted in 2023. Draft him and he'll lock down the center position for at least the next 10 years.





2nd round #37 - (TE) Darnell Washington 6'7" 270 lbs. Georgia: If there is a run on WRs before this pick, then I'm taking Washington. Washington is a linear athlete, which is fine because he is a beast as a run blocker. He is listed as 270 lbs, but looks 280 lbs. of muscle. DBs bounce off him when they try to tackle him. When Noah Fant's contract is up, Washington will be the hedge/upgrade to him.





2nd round #53 - (FS) Chris Smith 5'10" 190 lbs. Georgia: Smith has great range an amazing acceleration. I don't think Diggs should be back next year and there isn't a legit replacement on our current roster.





3rd round #84 - (DT/DE) Karl Brooks 6'3" 300 lbs. Bowling Green: Brooks is a nice athletic big man. He was PFF's 1st Team All-American. Brooks had 10 sacks and 18 tackles for loss this year. He doesn't have great arm length, but then again it is the 3rd round.





3rd round #88 (from Chargers) - (DT/NT/DE) Keeanu Benton 6'4" 315 lbs. Wisconsion: Benton is a big strong dude with good arm length. With Benton, Brooks, and hopefully Da'Ron Payne...we could have a huge improvement on the 3-4 defensive line.

Keeanu Benton Highlights

NFL Defensive Tackle Prospect Keeanu Benton Highlights

youtu.be

4th round #121 - (WR) Nathaniel Dell 5'9" 165 lbs. Houston: Dell has good initial quickness and long speed. He is good at adjusting his body to errant balls, he also shows the abilty to become a good route runner to get separation.

Nathaniel "Tank" Dell 2022 Highlights | Houston WR | 2023 NFL Draft Prospect

All-American receiver with great hands and track speed2022 Stats: 109 Rec, 1398 Yds, 17 TD

youtu.be

5th round #151 - (OT/OG) Richard Gouraige 6'5" 306 lbs. Florida: Gouraige played LT the past two years and has experience at LG. He would come in and compete at LG.



5th round #156 - (RB) Chris Rodriguez Jr. 5'11" 225 lbs. Kentucky: Rodriguez draft range is somewhere between 3rd - 5th round. I think the combine will help get a better read on his draft range. He hits like a sledgehammer and would be a great compliment to K-9.





6th round #197 - (ILB) Bumper Pool 6'2" 232 lbs. Arkansas: Pool looks athletic and can make some big hits.

ALL-SEC LB Bumper Pool (2023) NFL Draft Prospect Highlights...🔥

ALL-SEC LB Bumper Pool (2023) NFL Draft Prospect Highlights...🔥College: Arkansas Razorbacks Position: LB Ht: 6'2Wt: 230lbsI do not own the rights to this v...

youtu.be

 

[Seahawkwalt1967]

Nice.. I love Bumper. You always find these gems Chevy. It would be great to have a linebacker with awareness for once. Chris Smith gives me Earl Thomas vibes. Washington is a beast. Rodriquez is a great runner but needs to learn to not fumble. Nice work.

 

[ivotuk]

Appreciate your post, but Richardson is terrible! He's a physical specimen, sure, but so was JaMarcus Russell. You don't take a QB that struggled for 1 year in college, then bailed.

Take a look at FO's Lewin QB forecast

As I explained in last year's article, any quarterback projection system based on past performance is going to highly value collegiate games started.

From 1990 to 2005, it was far and away the most important variable in determining the success of highly-drafted quarterbacks.

(aka Brock Purdy)

Lewin Career Forecast 2012

Our college QB projection system agrees with everyone else: Indianapolis and Washington are getting two of the best prospects of the last 15 years.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Appreciate your post, but Richardson is terrible! He's a physical specimen, sure, but so was JaMarcus Russell. You don't take a QB that struggled for 1 year in college, then bailed.

C'mon man, that's not worthy of your post quality. That's like saying you can't ever draft a specimen because JaMarcus Russell was drafted.

I'll see your JaMarcus Russell, and raise you a Josh Allen. It would be as silly as me saying Josh Allen proves Richardson is a franchise QB. Or the other pet peeve of mine that you can't draft from XXX school because they have a bust history with previous QBs.

They are their own prospects. In their own right. And I think you and I would agree, that no QB is 'NFL ready'. The amount of growth in just one NFL season dwarfs an entire college career. Success IMO, is largely due to the prospects that can drink from the fire hose of knowledge they are required to consume.

On Richardson, I would disagree. He is much more of a mixed bag. Which makes him not a #1 overall prospect. He made plenty of errors. And if that's all we focused on, then I'd agree he's terrible. But he also provided many glimpses of pure brilliance. Giving a window to an upside that is top tier NFL quality.

I'll not touch on his physical gifts which we both would concede are elite NFL level traits. Just on the nuts and bolts of things. Richardson already shows the ability to recognize pre snap defenses at the collegiate level and the ability to shift/command protection to counter as well as communicate these with the RB. This isn't trivial. And to me demonstrates that he is capable of learning and applying the kind of knowledge that QBs at the NFL level have to master.

He is able to attack defenses at multiple levels, from the pocket and while on the move. On roll outs, he doesn't merely throw the short outlet pass. He shows the vision and ability and importantly the confidence to hit the intermediate/deeper routes in windows that are more likely to be found at the NFL level.

Richardson was also saddled with a pretty bad rebuilding team. Kind of learning in a tempest. Not unlike what one finds at the NFL level. Was he massively successful? No. Did he flash quality in difficult circumstances? Yes. Did he show growth? Absolutely.

He's not a finished prospect. If he was, he'd be the Lawrence/Stafford of this draft. Drafting him at 5 if he's there, means you're banking on continued growth similar to what he showed this season.

I kind of think Seattle/Schneider in particular, knows the secret sauce to identifying QBs that will continue that path. I also think he understands completely the value of having the QB position solidified over years. I don't know if he'll have the authority to make the pick or if Carroll would overrule him. Or if he even sees Richardson the same as I do. I don't think Carroll would make that pick if he has full say.

I would say, that if we do select him, that really bodes well for what we could expect from him and we should be very excited to have him.

Take a look at FO's Lewin QB forecast

As I explained in last year's article, any quarterback projection system based on past performance is going to highly value collegiate games started.

From 1990 to 2005, it was far and away the most important variable in determining the success of highly-drafted quarterbacks.

(aka Brock Purdy)

Lewin Career Forecast 2012

Our college QB projection system agrees with everyone else: Indianapolis and Washington are getting two of the best prospects of the last 15 years.

www.footballoutsiders.com

I submit the Lewin forecast is severely outdated. Since that model, the NFL has established a brutal rookie salary cap (2011, and again in 2021). That truncated college careers massively as players almost never reach their rJR year if they harbored any legitimate NFL aspirations. Couple that now with NIL/Transfer portal considerations and it's even more rare to see a 3 year starter make the first round conversation.

I'm not even sure there are any top 10 overall QBs in the last 10 years that have more than 2 starting seasons under their belts (yep turns out a handful). But here is the list of 3 year starters drafted in the first round:

2013: None
2014: Teddy Bridgewater
2015: Marcus Mariota
2016: Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch
2017: None
2018: Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson
2019: Daniel Jones
2020: Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
2021: Trevor Lawrence
2022: Kenny Pickett

So there aren't a lot of 3+ year starters to choose from. And of course the results are pretty similarly mixed. I don't see that the evidence correlates as strongly as it did pre CBA when this theory was written, where staying in school was merited if it meant getting an unregulated top 5 QB rookie deal as opposed to a low first round deal worth less than a quarter of the money. There is virtually no incentive for a QB to stay beyond their 3rd year removed from high school. And with the transfer portal, there isn't any incentive to even stay at the same school for those three years either.

It would take more time than I'm willing to invest, but I wonder aloud if there isn't a real opportunity to find day 3/late rd 3 QBs who turn out good/serviceable having that 3-4 year college starter resume. I'd still expect that ratio to be incredibly low. But those picks are kind of house money and it's not like the risk is any less getting a CB or LB worth a second deal in that range either.