Baker, 4th to Titans for LB Ernest Jones IV

Ozzy

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
11,647
Reaction score
6,495
To be clear, my post wasn't directed at you in particular, and I do like this move. I'm optimistic that the near-term upside will outweigh the future drawbacks.


Here's a short version of why I think moves like this are universally bad in the context of NFL long-term roster building.

A. Given a fixed salary cap number, the only way to have above average talent is to pay people less than they are worth on average. You can also play games with your cap by moving charges through time, but that's really to do with discounting the future.
B. Rookie contracts are underpaid due to the rookie wage scale. If a rookie hits then this could be a ridiculous difference, ie. rookie contract Russ. Or for this context, 4th round LB KJ Wright. That creates huge surplus value on your roster.
C. Once a player hits UFA they become overpaid due to the Winner's Curse of free agency. That creates slightly negative value on your roster depending on how much you had to overpay. QBs can be an exception here, since in my view the best ones would be paid even more than they are in a truly open market.

In order to re-sign Ernest Jones we will have to pay him what his expected production warrants. That puts the ceiling on his marginal impact at average production per dollar. In order to do that, we traded a potential rookie away that will be paid much less than their production if they end up being good - and if they end up busting then they don't affect our cap. That strategy can help a team avoid having bad talent, but will not lead to above average talent.

Where I agree with you is that long-term strategy doesn't always work so it can become necessary to pivot with free agents.
This is a valid point for sure. Unfortunately the draft is limited in how much of this you can do because of miss rates and just the lack of overall volume so you still have to make some tough decisions like this even if the value doesn't match hitting on a draft pick. Anyway, your post was a really good one and I appreciate you sharing it. Hoping this ends up being a home run.
 

flv2

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2022
Messages
1,823
Reaction score
1,426
Location
Bournemouth, UK
I've heard about the "knee issues" elsewhere, but nothing in detail. Can you elaborate?
No specifics. He was on the 2023 injury reports, (knee), for Weeks 6, 7, 8, & 9. He missed Week 9. He had other injury issues late in 2023. He missed 2024 OTAs with the same knee issues, then missed part of preseason with it as well.

https://www.si.com/nfl/rams/news/rams-linebacker-dealing-with-nagging-injury-held-out-of-practice-01j4yeg7qq71

The knee issues may be overblown. It's really hard to know. There was a report he had character issues in college. He 'seemed' to have an issue with the Rams management which may be why the Rams weren't willing to discuss an extension. Now the Titans are also willing to move on. The 1st of these 2 articles is particularly interesting:

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2024/08/28/rams-ernest-jones-trade-reason-knee-linebacker-depth/

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2024/8/27/24229006/rams-earnest-jones-2024-contract-trade-scenarios
 

bileever

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 16, 2022
Messages
1,996
Reaction score
2,720
The other good thing about this trade is that it allows Dodson to move to weakside LB, where he is a better fit. He is top ten among LBs in coverage, but is literally the worst starting MLB in stopping the run. That was also his weakness in college, and it hasn't gotten better.

Kudos to whoever is doing the self-scouting and diagnosed the weakness and fixed it.
 

HawkFreak

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
2,098
Reaction score
1,419
The other good thing about this trade is that it allows Dodson to move to weakside LB, where he is a better fit. He is top ten among LBs in coverage, but is literally the worst starting MLB in stopping the run. That was also his weakness in college, and it hasn't gotten better.

Kudos to whoever is doing the self-scouting and diagnosed the weakness and fixed it.
Another under-appreciated aspect of this trade. Beside what he brings as a player - his presence will make it possible to let other players actually play in their positions of strength. I like it and I'm guessing so does MacD.
 

keasley45

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 4, 2010
Messages
5,008
Reaction score
9,107
Location
Cockeysville, Md
I dont get the handringing over surrendering a 4th round draft pick. I do understand the concern over how many players we can pay. But you cant make the argument against this move solely based on the POTENTIAL crap-shoot value of a 4th round pick. And if he plays like an all pro MLB who solves our run defense woes, whats the issue with paying him? MLB is the QB of the defense.

We gave up a player that we decided we didnt want. We surrendered a 4th round pick for a player that has to date far exceeded the production would would expect to see from a 4th rounder... far, far exceeded. And if we do extend him, it will be because he has played exceptionally well and has shown his value to the team.

If he doesnt do what we think he will, we dont extend him, we lose him to FA, and get a comp pick.

Whats the issue?
 

Maelstrom787

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 28, 2011
Messages
13,434
Reaction score
12,654
Location
Delaware
And we have yet to see what these guys do when Pete isn’t the one stirring the pot. Early indicators are positive.
I... don't really see much of a difference.

John was the head honcho when it came to that draft board, and he's not really deviating from his standard operation so far. 2024 draft was totally on brand. High priority on DL, guard late day 2, tight end in the fourth... that's JS to a tee.
 

Lagartixa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2020
Messages
2,152
Reaction score
3,737
Location
Taboão da Serra, SP, Brazil
That fourth round pick could also become EJ Wilson. I just don't see that much hand-wringing justified by that level of draft collateral. A 2nd, maybe.

But Jones is an awesome player and the buzz around the league is that the Rams were stupid for letting him go, FA policy or no. He was getting buzz to the Ravens to fix their issues and instead Mike McDonald swooped in and got him. He's going to spring Dodson free to do more of his best stuff, he's going to loosen the tackling load on our secondary, and he's going to get us a legitimate shot at being a playoff defense.

For me, a 4th-round pick for three months of play is a permissible overpayment when we have otherwise Pro Bowl caliber guys getting buried by Antonio Gibson and Tyrone Tracy. You're probably throwing in the towel on the season if you leave Baker in there.

Since you used the term "permissible overpayment," I'm pretty sure we agree on the trade.
 

warden

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Messages
3,049
Reaction score
1,438
The Seahawks can start the effort to resign Jones immediately if they choose so.
 

Glasgow Seahawk

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2013
Messages
2,165
Reaction score
721
Listening to real hawk talk last night. The consensus when asking around with the Rams and Titans contacts was that the Rams got rid due to not valuing the MLB position and paying players there, Titans didn't want to pay as they are about to go full on rebuild. No red flags, character concerns or anything.

Sounds like he is a leader and they want him to mentor Knight etc.
 

Glasgow Seahawk

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2013
Messages
2,165
Reaction score
721
I dont get the handringing over surrendering a 4th round draft pick. I do understand the concern over how many players we can pay. But you cant make the argument against this move solely based on the POTENTIAL crap-shoot value of a 4th round pick. And if he plays like an all pro MLB who solves our run defense woes, whats the issue with paying him? MLB is the QB of the defense.

We gave up a player that we decided we didnt want. We surrendered a 4th round pick for a player that has to date far exceeded the production would would expect to see from a 4th rounder... far, far exceeded. And if we do extend him, it will be because he has played exceptionally well and has shown his value to the team.

If he doesnt do what we think he will, we dont extend him, we lose him to FA, and get a comp pick.

Whats the issue?
Last years LBer draft wasn't great and supposedly neither is next years. A 4th round pick for a proven player who is still young is fine if thats the case. We had two anyway.
 

jammerhawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Messages
10,924
Reaction score
2,552
Soul man I completely agree! I have the same hunch/opinion.

This is a player they wanted to trade for earlier and a player they know well and have played against. Jones was a 3rd rd. draft pick of the Rams and has played well enough to justify his draft position. To me if he stays healthy he's certainly a keeper.
 

AirStrike

Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2010
Messages
170
Reaction score
12
Best case he balls out, helps us make the playoffs and we lose him in the off-season and get a comp pick. I don't see how with our current cap situation in 2025 that if he plays how we think he'll play that they'll able to lock him up long term.
 

keasley45

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 4, 2010
Messages
5,008
Reaction score
9,107
Location
Cockeysville, Md
Best case he balls out, helps us make the playoffs and we lose him in the off-season and get a comp pick. I don't see how with our current cap situation in 2025 that if he plays how we think he'll play that they'll able to lock him up long term.
JS has a gift for making the cap work. It may take not bringing back some fan favorites, but i dont see MM letting a piece like Jones walk if he turns out to be what they think he will be. Mike's scheme was unlocked in Baltimore when they were able to solidify the LB spot and develop a solid D line.
 

warden

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Messages
3,049
Reaction score
1,438
We can always release Jones this upcoming off season to clear cap space to sign Jones. Plus when extending or signing a player, you can make the first year or two pretty cap friendly
 

AirStrike

Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2010
Messages
170
Reaction score
12
JS has a gift for making the cap work. It may take not bringing back some fan favorites, but i dont see MM letting a piece like Jones walk if he turns out to be what they think he will be. Mike's scheme was unlocked in Baltimore when they were able to solidify the LB spot and develop a solid D line.
Roquan Smith is in a different stratosphere than where Ernest Jones is lol
 

SoulfishHawk

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 6, 2012
Messages
35,957
Reaction score
16,937
Location
Sammamish, WA
Probably not the point that Keasley was trying to make. He took guys and elevated their play. Look at Clowney, under MM, he thrived.
 

jammerhawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Messages
10,924
Reaction score
2,552
Best case he balls out, helps us make the playoffs and we lose him in the off-season and get a comp pick. I don't see how with our current cap situation in 2025 that if he plays how we think he'll play that they'll able to lock him up long term.
Airstrike: That thought about the comp pick is very apt so however this works out the team would not lose as badly as giving a 4th and Baker (who likely wasn't going to be kept anyways). creativity with the cap should be possible to allow the team to keep Jones if he does ball out.
 

Latest posts

Top