Baker, 4th to Titans for LB Ernest Jones IV

[IndyHawk]

Saw someone mention Wags and why we didn't just keep him instead
of having to get to this point, Jones is younger, fits better and is cheaper.
Baker was not a good fit and seemed to be getting hurt or was playing hurt.
I'm happy with this trade and sometimes you have give up a pick to get
something decent.

 

[MORGULON]

Going by PFF, this kid has had one strong season, and he's been about as effective as Baker this season. He may be a better fit in our defense, but we'll see how much of an upgrade he is. Still, I like it. Baker wasn't the long-term solution; this kid is younger and has more upside.

That said, I wouldn't call this a splash or win-now move. Leonard Williams was a splash. He cost us a second and a fifth. While substantial, trading a rotational LB and a fourth doesn't move the needle as much.

Kid?

 

[renofox]

Considering Baker's contract structure, Seattle probably won't save any money on this trade. Eighty percent of his contract value came from his signing bonus and upfront guarantees.

It's basically a wash. Both have salary + per game roster bonus of ~3.2M.

 

[warden]

Good player, but gave up way too much for a 10-game rental. Rams traded Jones and a 6th rounder to the Titans for a 5th round pick. Now we trade Baker plus a 4th round pick for him.

You know we get a serious advantage over everyone else when it comes to resigning. Very similar to the Big Cat trade.

If he plays really really well for us and we can’t sign him, we can always tag him. We get to see exactly what he will be all about the next ten games which will be extremely useful information when it comes to resigning him

The kid is only 24 years old. Only a couple years older than most draft choices

 

[AgentDib]

We are talking about a 4th round pick here, not a 2nd or even a 3rd, so talking about Seasons™ seems like quite the mountain made out of a molehill. I could see this if it were a 2nd.

To be clear, my post wasn't directed at you in particular, and I do like this move. I'm optimistic that the near-term upside will outweigh the future drawbacks.

I am more of the "you get what you pay for" persuasion. Everyone wants a full Pro Bowl roster drafted from the 7th round and Michael Bennett-style FA pickups. I, on the other hand, am tired of DeMarcus Christmas, Freddie Swains, and Joey Hunts being perpetually expected to fill out rosters. Sometimes you just gotta shell out.

Here's a short version of why I think moves like this are universally bad in the context of NFL long-term roster building.

A. Given a fixed salary cap number, the only way to have above average talent is to pay people less than they are worth on average. You can also play games with your cap by moving charges through time, but that's really to do with discounting the future.
B. Rookie contracts are underpaid due to the rookie wage scale. If a rookie hits then this could be a ridiculous difference, ie. rookie contract Russ. Or for this context, 4th round LB KJ Wright. That creates huge surplus value on your roster.
C. Once a player hits UFA they become overpaid due to the Winner's Curse of free agency. That creates slightly negative value on your roster depending on how much you had to overpay. QBs can be an exception here, since in my view the best ones would be paid even more than they are in a truly open market.

In order to re-sign Ernest Jones we will have to pay him what his expected production warrants. That puts the ceiling on his marginal impact at average production per dollar. In order to do that, we traded a potential rookie away that will be paid much less than their production if they end up being good - and if they end up busting then they don't affect our cap. That strategy can help a team avoid having bad talent, but will not lead to above average talent.

Where I agree with you is that long-term strategy doesn't always work so it can become necessary to pivot with free agents.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Brock Huard Reacts: Why Seattle Seahawks made LB trade

Brock Huard breaks down a few things that stand out about the Seattle Seahawks making a trade for linebacker Ernest Jones IV.

sports.mynorthwest.com

 

[AgentDib]

You know we get a serious advantage over everyone else when it comes to resigning. Very similar to the Big Cat trade.

Did we get an advantage with Leonard Williams? We re-signed him for $63.5m/3 years which most thought was a small overpay if anything. In many cases, trading for an expiring contract player can backfire since the GM feels that they have to re-sign them to justify the trade.

If he plays really really well for us and we can’t sign him, we can always tag him. We get to see exactly what he will be all about the next ten games which will be extremely useful information when it comes to resigning him

The projected franchise tag for LBs next year is $27m. ILBs get lumped in with the star 3-4 OLB edge rushers who command that kind of contract.

 

[Mistashoesta]

That’s great so why did the Rams give up on him? Even if it was for an injury, why wouldn’t they wait until he is better?

Word is the Rams didn't want to pay him. And the Titans, who seem to be having a fire sale and in rebuild mode, didn't want to either.

 

[James in PA]

This is a nice start, but why aren't we trading for every other player on the trading block and why aren't other teams just giving them to us?

 

[Fresno Hawk]

This kid is talented. But we gave up a 4th for this kid. That is kinda steep if you ask me. I thought it might be Pete giving high value to above average players but it may have been JS. What I like about Jones is that he is good coming down hill. In pass coverage he is average.

 

[chrispy]

LWilliams ans EJones both knew/know they'll be FAs too. In their shoes, it's an advantage to try out a culture before committing. Obviously there's risk for a team as well, but having an extended tryout is pretty nice. There's some advantage on both sides if it's a fit. If not, comp pick and draft and you took a chance but didn't lose too much.

 

[Kamcussionator]

Sorry if anyone already posted this...

Ok, now this makes more sense. When we first got Dodson and Baker, I recall (I think Wyman) talking about how they are both great athletes but neither were ideal for the strong side in the 3-4, since you frequently get uncovered guards on the strong side and you have to be able to shed or avoid those blocks to be effective in the run game.

Dodson was better than Baker, so apparently that's why he was put on the strong side and we drafted Knight -- a slower but stout LB to grow into the position.

By cutting Baker, Dodson gets to slide over into his natural WLB position, and Jones becomes our stud MLB.

Assuming we resign Jones -- and I'm sure we already had a, "will you re-sign?" conversation with him before agreeing to the trade -- this trade upgrades BOTH our LB positions with young talent.

 

[TwilightError]

MLB is the position that communicates the play to the rest of the defense. Can Jones really just immediately start as MLB after having played his career as a Will?

The price is steep compared to what the Titans paid and the fact the Rams traded Jones to the Titans for just a pick swap is raising eyebrows too.

Not a fan of win now trades in this situation. But lets see how EJIV performs. If he turns great, nice. If he turns out to be a 10 game rental, a wasted fourth rounder is quite steep as this team still needs to build long term and that is done through the draft to get those rookie deals.

 

[bigskydoc]

MLB is the position that communicates the play to the rest of the defense. Can Jones really just immediately start as MLB after having played his career as a Will?

The price is steep compared to what the Titans paid and the fact the Rams traded Jones to the Titans for just a pick swap is raising eyebrows too.

Not a fan of win now trades in this situation. But lets see how EJIV performs. If he turns great, nice. If he turns out to be a 10 game rental, a wasted fourth rounder is quite steep as this team still needs to build long term and that is done through the draft to get those rookie deals.

He was the play calling ILB for the 2023 Rams defense. AD was the captain, but Jones was the defacto captain on that defense.

Per @flv2 Rams don’t sign ILBs to long term contracts, and did the right thing by him to undersell him out of conference.

Ernest Jones

Granted permission to seek a trade. Knowing the Lambs, they’ll ask for way too much. ESPN Article Position of need (imo) for the Hawks…

www.seahawks.net

 

[cymatica]

Pete Carroll is no longer Top Boss

John and the scouts are still here. Same FO minus Pete.

 

[Hollandhawk]

When was the last time we signed any good FA's? I can only think of DJ Reed which wasn't that recent...or Geno

Was Julian Love a FA?

 

[seabowl]

Word is the Rams didn't want to pay him. And the Titans, who seem to be having a fire sale and in rebuild mode, didn't want to either.

So he breaks the teams tackle record last season, and is just starting to enter his prime and the team didn’t want to pay him? Very very fishy.

 

[bigskydoc]

John and the scouts are still here. Same FO minus Pete.

And we have yet to see what these guys do when Pete isn’t the one stirring the pot. Early indicators are positive.

 

[chrispy]

MLB is the position that communicates the play to the rest of the defense. Can Jones really just immediately start as MLB after having played his career as a Will?

The price is steep compared to what the Titans paid and the fact the Rams traded Jones to the Titans for just a pick swap is raising eyebrows too.

Not a fan of win now trades in this situation. But lets see how EJIV performs. If he turns great, nice. If he turns out to be a 10 game rental, a wasted fourth rounder is quite steep as this team still needs to build long term and that is done through the draft to get those rookie deals.

Theoretically, if he's a rental and goes somewhere else for a sizeable contract, JS would manage the off season to get a comp pick back. If it plays out that way it would end up being a 24 4th lost and a 25 comp pick gained...as high as a 3rd but probably a 4th or 5th. Still not "even" but not a lost 4th in the long run. That said, let's hope he's a Seahawk for a long time with all the implications thereof.

 

[MORGULON]

Assuming we resign Jones -- and I'm sure we already had a, "will you re-sign?" conversation with him before agreeing to the trade -- this trade upgrades BOTH our LB positions with young talent.

I'm thinking that Seattle gave up the fourth rounder with a re-sign in mind. If he works out, this handles a big issue moving forward . And you're right , he's young.

I remember when he was with the Rams and thinking
"I wish we had a dude like him"