Article: The Gang of 4 Revolution

[drdiags]

Saw this article linked from Eric William's TNT Seahawks blog. Has some discussion on how the CBA has helped to make mid-ranked QBs less valuable due to their costs and potential replacement's costs. The Gang of 4 are RGIII, Wilson, Luck and Kaepernick due to relatively low costs versus the Phillip Rivers of the world. Not sure how I view the premise but has some interesting number comparisons, like this one:

To obtain that production, the Chargers are paying Philip Rivers a base salary of $12 million in 2013. He'll have a cap hold of $17.1 million, which is just under twice as much as the cap hit produced by any other player on the Chargers. It's more than 25 times as much as Russell Wilson's $681,085 hold on the Seahawks' cap. It's just $4 million less than Robert Griffin will make over the entirety of his four-year rookie contract with the Redskins. Does the certainty of having Philip Rivers under center sound so hot right about now? And this isn't picking on these specific players, either; would you rather have Michael Vick (who had a $16.9 million cap hold before renegotiating his deal) or Ryan Tannehill ($2.9 million) right about now? Or, to be more accurate, would you rather have Michael Vick at $16.9 million or Ryan Tannehill at $2.9 million, plus whatever else you can get with that leftover $14 million?5 (Pretend you have better taste than Jeff Ireland does.) As Chris Sprow noted last week, the costs of "starting over" with a young quarterback are now so low that taking a shot with somebody like Tannehill or even Geno Smith is much more palatable than it was five years ago, when going after a top draft pick meant that you could end up with JaMarcus Russell and a $13.6 million cap hit by his third season in the league.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9322488/bill-barnwell-vanishing-value-veteran-quarterback

 

[Smelly McUgly]

Thanks for this article.

The rookie cap is great for teams because, ostensibly, not only does it limit the damage financially of missing in the first round, but it also allows teams to go out and play the FA market. Well, ostensibly. We have not seen more big FA contracts for players. The markets for most players have been depressed.

I think this is partly because, combined with the cap rollover option, teams like the Seahawks are rolling over extra FA cash to re-sign those players that they will have to eventually pay a big contract to that are now making peanuts. Of course, our team is one of the few teams that was also able to go out and get Percy Harvin precisely because Russell Wilson (and Richard Sherman) are making so far less than the 80-100M contracts that they would get on the open market.

 

[mikeak]

The only issue with this starting over is using a low draft pick on a player for a position you may not need and a position that probably has the lowest chance of success.

So if you can get a Cornerback that has twice the percentage chances of being succesful in the league (no proof for that number just using it as an example) and then not sign a veteran should you not do this over yes saving more money on the qb but having a much lower chance of success..........

 

[rideaducati]

I wonder which QB will be the first to realize that getting that HUGE contract actually hurts the "team". I wonder if Drew Brees would hold out for all that money if he knew that his defense would be the worst in NFL history because they couldn't pay for quality players. The list of high paid QBs is growing and most of their teams are not getting better.

 

[drdiags]

The problem is these young QBs will have to take the advice of their agents into consideration, since they don't want to make an emotional decision. If their play warrants it, they will most likely go for top dollar. It is just the nature of the payment history of the position. I cannot see any of them signing their next contract for under 16M/yr on average.

More likely starting at an avg of 20M/yr. But this is just me spit-balling.

 

[RolandDeschain]

but it also allows teams to go out and play the FA market. Well, ostensibly. We have not seen more big FA contracts for players. The markets for most players have been depressed.

I think this has actually worked, but we're not noticing it because of the number of big FA acquisitions that have been horrible failures in the past few years. Without the rookie salary changes, I think the FA $ market would be even more depressed than it is now. Just a thought, I'm not sure if it's true or not.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

but it also allows teams to go out and play the FA market. Well, ostensibly. We have not seen more big FA contracts for players. The markets for most players have been depressed.

I think this has actually worked, but we're not noticing it because of the number of big FA acquisitions that have been horrible failures in the past few years. Without the rookie salary changes, I think the FA $ market would be even more depressed than it is now. Just a thought, I'm not sure if it's true or not.

I could well be making a correlation without causation statement here, but it seems like Mario Williams' underperformance in Buffalo after signing that 100M dollar deal really hurt the DE market this summer.

 

[RolandDeschain]

but it also allows teams to go out and play the FA market. Well, ostensibly. We have not seen more big FA contracts for players. The markets for most players have been depressed.

I think this has actually worked, but we're not noticing it because of the number of big FA acquisitions that have been horrible failures in the past few years. Without the rookie salary changes, I think the FA $ market would be even more depressed than it is now. Just a thought, I'm not sure if it's true or not.

I could well be making a correlation without causation statement here, but it seems like Mario Williams' underperformance in Buffalo after signing that 100M dollar deal really hurt the DE market this summer.

There are a pretty good number of big FA signings, or highly priced trades, that have totally failed. Look at the Seahawks giving up a 1st for Deion Branch, the Eagles paying a lot for Nnamdi Asomugha, and I'm sure there are more I can think of.