Apologies to Pete Carroll.

[Spin Doctor]

Carroll's offense has been something of a frustration for me over the years. It was an offense that was laughably simple. I remember pundits on NFL Network back in the day noting that in some games they didn't even use the whole route tree. When I dove into games I saw the same thing. An offense that was extremely rudimentary and inconsistent. From quarter to quarter you never knew what you would get.

At first I put this on Russell Wilson. I was originally skeptical of Russell Wilson -- and drew the ire of many around here. Eventually in 2015 I saw Seattle look more conventional. Wilson finally was using the whole field and he was using timing routes to great affect. I begin to think "perhaps it's a Pete Carroll/Bevell problem" when looking at the offense.

Seeing Geno Smith run this offense this season has showed me what a fool I was. It wasn't Carroll that didn't want routes over the middle, it wasn't Carroll that ran stupid simple concepts all in the keep it simple stupid philosophy. No, what I was seeing is Russell Wilson's limitations as a passer. Wilson was a generational talent that could only run one style of offense. We were trying to do the best with what we had, a talented albeit limited player that refused to grow as a passer.

Wilson in a system that requires him to think like a traditional passer combined with his decreased mobility now is eye opening. Geno Smith also is showing me that it was not Carroll, but Wilson that kept us from running more modern passing concepts. I've never seen Wilson active at the LOS like Geno nor have I seen us run this many timing routes before.

It seems my original take on Wilson was correct and I became blind to our true limitation, number 3. I'm here to eat crow, our offensive woes as it turns out was on Wilson.

 

[Mad Dog]

Certainly looks that way so far. But it's just a 5 game sample. Some of Russ' limitations may be his coach in Denver. Some of Geno's success may be Waldron's growth as an OC. But on the surface it sure looks like Russ was holding us back far more than Pete was.

 

[m0ng0]

I'm kinda with you on a similar path with Geno, he has impressed so far but it's a long season and the competition ramps up fast so we shall see.

I was a Flynn guy myself but did come to appreciate Russ quickly than fast forward about 6 years and saw no improvement and I dare say regression and like you I thought what's happening?

 

[evergreen]

Russ could hide his limitations with superior athleticism. He would scramble out and make magic. Not anymore. Plus he was always good for a few clunkers a year. He looked every bit as bad then as he does now. But the clunkers got alarmingly more frequent the last few years. So glad we sold before the bottom dropped out. His reputation really did preceded him.

 

[Maelstrom787]

And before the usual cabal jump in and drive the discussion towards anything negative that they can - please take a moment to actually read this post and what it refers to.

 

[Torc]

I have to say, in Wilson's rookie season I was blown away near the end of the year when the seahawks put up 58, 50 and 42 points in a three game stretch. In one of those Wilson scored a couple of rushing TDs; it was all about the read option and the triple threat of Marshawn running, Wilson running or Wilson throwing. It was unpredictable and I thought it was a sign of things to come. It kind of was....

And then a few years later they have a record streak of games without scoring on the first possession. It was mind bogglingly frustrating, and typically they didn't score much in the first half at all, waiting until the end of the game for those miracle comebacks.

Then you start to throw in some of the analysis that started to pop up occasionally, the one I remember most is Kurt Warner going through a couple of games and pointing out all the open receivers that Russ was either not seeing or ignoring. And then last year, the first game under Waldron with more advanced concepts and movement that went away the next game....and coming back to a degree when Geno filled in for Russ' injury.

Russ was amazing for us and I don't want to take away from that. But I think the OP is right - he has limitations. He excels when there's a strong running threat, either by himself or a good RB. He seems to elevate his game when the chips are down - maybe that's part of his hero syndrome, but he can be amazing on a game winning drive. He also seems to elevate players who have low expectations on them. Was Baldwin (an undrafted player) elevated by Wilson, or was he super talented and the scouts all whiffed? Will Dissly was drafted in the fourth round and projected as a blocker. During Wilson's tenure, there have been quite a few unheralded receivers that seem to excel when Wilson is throwing the ball.

But, he doesn't seem to go through any progression and gets stuck on a single receiver. I think he throws too many contested balls and the receivers he's had in Seattle happened to be capable of winning those battles. He's limited in what parts of the field he throws to.

I think the general consensus is correct - Wilson is a smart, motivated player who relies (relied?) on his athleticism to make plays. He abandoned the pocket too quickly, causing some of his sacks but also generating amazing off-script plays. The sacks seemed to outnumber the amazing plays in recent years though. He's never been a pocket passer despite (apparently) attempts to convince him to stay in the pocket. I really do think that they'll get things figured out in Denver, although it may be under a different head coach. Hackett looks terribly incompetent. Wilson is simply too disciplined and motivated to not fix whatever is going on, and they've guaranteed too much money to him to let a novice head coach stick around to continue to fail.

(As an aside, if Russ really does continue to struggle, and if Watson struggles when returning from his suspension, I wonder what that will do to the trend of guaranteed contracts? It's just SO MUCH money to be stuck with on your salary cap if you don't end up getting quality QB play from it.)

 

[Seak]

Greg Olsen said the Seahawks treated the offence like a junior varsity team lol
Maybe thats all they could trust Wilson to handle

 

[TwistedHusky]

Interesting logic.
I will give it up to Pete, I was expecting a run first, TyWillinghamesque offense. Pete went pass first with Geno. Sounds like he is letting Waldron do his job. That is good stuff and an intelligent move by Pete I didn't think he would be able to make.

But judging Wilson's entire tenure by this 5 game stretch and then extrapolating it over the entire Seahawk period makes no sense.
For one, do you want to use this season's results to judge accomplishments?
Well then clearly Pete never was that great at defense in the league and his DCs were just propping him up. Ridiculous right?
Based on the past 5 games, Pete was a horrific coach and only was any good when he had Wilson and the LOB.

Wilson is an aging QB that came off an injury, and might even be injured now.
Not sure we saw him be near as effective after the injury.
It stands to reason that some of the issues we had with getting the snap off were Wilson - he doesn't read defenses before the snap well. Never had to because he reads defenses postsnap extremely well.

But I suspect that a healthy or younger Wilson would do just fine in Denver. His struggles are likely more a function of where he is now - not what he was. And also a function of not being on the same page with the WRs and not really having WRs you would want to be on the same page with in the first place. Also, his coach is Paul Hackett's son. Let that sink in for a minute. (Ask a USC fan who Paul Hackett is.)



(It should also be noted that their receivers are between dogsh*t and OK. Maybe Tim is OK. But the other guys don't make easy catches all the time, drop crucial balls, and aren't even that good a high-pointing the ball. Barely even that good at getting open.)

 

[AROS]

I have to say, in Wilson's rookie season I was blown away near the end of the year when the seahawks put up 58, 50 and 42 points in a three game stretch. In one of those Wilson scored a couple of rushing TDs; it was all about the read option and the triple threat of Marshawn running, Wilson running or Wilson throwing. It was unpredictable and I thought it was a sign of things to come. It kind of was....

And then a few years later they have a record streak of games without scoring on the first possession. It was mind bogglingly frustrating, and typically they didn't score much in the first half at all, waiting until the end of the game for those miracle comebacks.

Then you start to throw in some of the analysis that started to pop up occasionally, the one I remember most is Kurt Warner going through a couple of games and pointing out all the open receivers that Russ was either not seeing or ignoring. And then last year, the first game under Waldron with more advanced concepts and movement that went away the next game....and coming back to a degree when Geno filled in for Russ' injury.

Russ was amazing for us and I don't want to take away from that. But I think the OP is right - he has limitations. He excels when there's a strong running threat, either by himself or a good RB. He seems to elevate his game when the chips are down - maybe that's part of his hero syndrome, but he can be amazing on a game winning drive. He also seems to elevate players who have low expectations on them. Was Baldwin (an undrafted player) elevated by Wilson, or was he super talented and the scouts all whiffed? Will Dissly was drafted in the fourth round and projected as a blocker. During Wilson's tenure, there have been quite a few unheralded receivers that seem to excel when Wilson is throwing the ball.

But, he doesn't seem to go through any progression and gets stuck on a single receiver. I think he throws too many contested balls and the receivers he's had in Seattle happened to be capable of winning those battles. He's limited in what parts of the field he throws to.

I think the general consensus is correct - Wilson is a smart, motivated player who relies (relied?) on his athleticism to make plays. He abandoned the pocket too quickly, causing some of his sacks but also generating amazing off-script plays. The sacks seemed to outnumber the amazing plays in recent years though. He's never been a pocket passer despite (apparently) attempts to convince him to stay in the pocket. I really do think that they'll get things figured out in Denver, although it may be under a different head coach. Hackett looks terribly incompetent. Wilson is simply too disciplined and motivated to not fix whatever is going on, and they've guaranteed too much money to him to let a novice head coach stick around to continue to fail.

(As an aside, if Russ really does continue to struggle, and if Watson struggles when returning from his suspension, I wonder what that will do to the trend of guaranteed contracts? It's just SO MUCH money to be stuck with on your salary cap if you don't end up getting quality QB play from it.)

Well stated. I agree with your take completely.

 

[Scout]

My opinion is a lot of QB can operate in this league if they find the right scheme. Is Baker Mayfield that bad with the Panthers? No but I also know that the Panthers thought they could have Mayfield will them to win games in the 4th quarter. Something that Teddy Bridgewater could not do.

Can Geno do that? I am not so sure but like Teddy B with the Panthers/Broncos he isn't the MAIN problem.

Having Geno play at such a high level within the system shows that the offense can have more depth and complexity. And it is easier to judge the true talent level of all players on offense. I suspected that the TE group wasn't as bad as they look and I don't think Fant's arrival is the catalyst that ignited this productivity from the TE room alone all of a sudden. It is a team effort with the TEs, Geno and Waldron scheming them to succeed.

With RW situation here is what I see. Hacket like his father and Jon Gruden like old school horizontal WCO. Sure they will run an occasional go route or down the seam to counter cover 2/3 coverages.

But Gruden and Hackettt (Sr. And Jr). strongly believe in mismatches with slot WR running crossing routes in the middle of the field lined up against a nickel/dime defender or LB. That requires timing and anticipation which is NOT RW's strength and to recognize this PRE SNAP. Which is also NOT RW's strength.

What RW is very good at still is timing and rainbow throws downfield over the top of even double coverage. Most QBs can't make those type of throws but RW is still accurate. But asking RW to throw a timing route that is horizontal is a no go with him.

If Denver is smart they increase the amount of running play diversity, keep the screen game going and run more vertical concepts that isolate boundary receivers. Right now Wilson is struggling to throw in the middle of the field whether short, intermediate or deep. This is because teams are going to continue to play cover 2 and cover 3 until Denver can show they can move the chains with a short ball control WCO offense.

That should be right up Hackett's alley except that is not RW strength. So the alternative is to pound the rock as much as possible and then run play action deep passes to utilize RW strength. Basically RW is a more athletic and seasoned version of Baker Mayfield at this point of his career. But also more costly too in terms of cap resources.

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Carroll's offense has been something of a frustration for me over the years. It was an offense that was laughably simple. I remember pundits on NFL Network back in the day noting that in some games they didn't even use the whole route tree. When I dove into games I saw the same thing. An offense that was extremely rudimentary and inconsistent. From quarter to quarter you never knew what you would get.

At first I put this on Russell Wilson. I was originally skeptical of Russell Wilson -- and drew the ire of many around here. Eventually in 2015 I saw Seattle look more conventional. Wilson finally was using the whole field and he was using timing routes to great affect. I begin to think "perhaps it's a Pete Carroll/Bevell problem" when looking at the offense.

Seeing Geno Smith run this offense this season has showed me what a fool I was. It wasn't Carroll that didn't want routes over the middle, it wasn't Carroll that ran stupid simple concepts all in the keep it simple stupid philosophy. No, what I was seeing is Russell Wilson's limitations as a passer. Wilson was a generational talent that could only run one style of offense. We were trying to do the best with what we had, a talented albeit limited player that refused to grow as a passer.

Wilson in a system that requires him to think like a traditional passer combined with his decreased mobility now is eye opening. Geno Smith also is showing me that it was not Carroll, but Wilson that kept us from running more modern passing concepts. I've never seen Wilson active at the LOS like Geno nor have I seen us run this many timing routes before.

It seems my original take on Wilson was correct and I became blind to our true limitation, number 3. I'm here to eat crow, our offensive woes as it turns out was on Wilson.

Yup.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Interesting logic.
I will give it up to Pete, I was expecting a run first, TyWillinghamesque offense. Pete went pass first with Geno. Sounds like he is letting Waldron do his job. That is good stuff and an intelligent move by Pete I didn't think he would be able to make.

But judging Wilson's entire tenure by this 5 game stretch and then extrapolating it over the entire Seahawk period makes no sense.
For one, do you want to use this season's results to judge accomplishments?
Well then clearly Pete never was that great at defense in the league and his DCs were just propping him up. Ridiculous right?
Based on the past 5 games, Pete was a horrific coach and only was any good when he had Wilson and the LOB.

Wilson is an aging QB that came off an injury, and might even be injured now.
Not sure we saw him be near as effective after the injury.
It stands to reason that some of the issues we had with getting the snap off were Wilson - he doesn't read defenses before the snap well. Never had to because he reads defenses postsnap extremely well.

But I suspect that a healthy or younger Wilson would do just fine in Denver. His struggles are likely more a function of where he is now - not what he was. And also a function of not being on the same page with the WRs and not really having WRs you would want to be on the same page with in the first place. Also, his coach is Paul Hackett's son. Let that sink in for a minute. (Ask a USC fan who Paul Hackett is.)



(It should also be noted that their receivers are between dogsh*t and OK. Maybe Tim is OK. But the other guys don't make easy catches all the time, drop crucial balls, and aren't even that good a high-pointing the ball. Barely even that good at getting open.)

Wilson wasn't a bad QB, there is definitely a narrative around here regarding his past success that I don't agree with. I still think he was a generational talent. His scrambling ability and improvisational skills in addition to his fourth quarter comebacks made him a formidable QB. You don't put up numbers like that on accident. With that unique set of skills came huge drawbacks, mostly in the form of consistency. It also puts a spotlight on why the Seahawks struggled so badly for whole halves in games. Wilson very much so was like an old Mohammed Ali playing rope a dope with the opposing defenses, just waiting for his opportunity to counter punch when defenses were tired.

I think Schottenheimer had the best beat on what worked for Wilson and what didn't, he looked great out of that offense, specifically in 2019. I have to give it up to the guy.

What you say about systems is absolutely correct as well. Every QB needs a system tailored around their skill sets, some more than others. Wilson is definitely not suited to running Hacketts offense. He's not great pre-snap, he struggles with timing routes -- which are things that Hackett's offense puts a huge premium on. Wilson is at his best playing under a paired down system that allows him to read one half of the field and make a quick decision. Schottenheimer for example really liked the crossing routes that would cut the field in half when it came to reads.

All that being said, Wilson's struggles have existed long before Hackett and Denver. We were seeing the some of the same issues here over the least year and a half only to a lesser degree.

Anyhow, I'm ranting here at this point. My entire reason for making this post was to highlight how I thought Carroll was holding back Wilson, but really he was accommodating Wilson and trying to work within his unique skill set.

 

[AgentDib]

I agree with most of the points here.

I'm sure we all remember 2015. Russ had a 7.73 ANY/A with a 68.1% completion rating and a 34-8 TD/INT ratio. Those are top 1 QB numbers that rewrote the narrative from him being a system QB to a superstar, and the obvious conclusion is that things must have been working pretty well that season. Great play on Russ's part with lots of work put in, strong running game to keep the offense on schedule, good scheme and play calling on the OC's part to maximize his strengths, strong receiver play from Baldwin and Lockett, good endzone production from Graham.

Of course that wasn't the take at the time, with the fallout from the Super Bowl still hanging over Bevell and then that bad 10am divisional loss to the Panthers where the offense didn't even show up to the stadium until after halftime.

In reality, it's far more likely that a player putting up A+ numbers is being put in a good situation to succeed than that they are secretly an A+++ talent being wasted. Looking back on things it was unrealistic for so many fans at the time to assume that Russ should be playing even better and that's probably mostly to do with the desire many fans have to claim that their favorite player is the best.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Spin,

Wilson does well at reading cornerback leverage and throwing to the opposite side, often while on the move. He reads coverage post snap incredibly well. But admittedly, throwing on the move has a problem - you move left or right and face the sideline....the middle of the field is only in your peripheral vision.
It is not some magical inability to use the middle of the field, but a function of needing to see where you are going while on the move.

Much of that is likely a symptom of his years of extremely poor protection.

But regardless, it is like people forgot 2017 (2018?) when he played the entire year in almost a walking boot and had to complete the kinds of passes everyone says he never could now.

His incredible offense in the Covid year was likely more a function of the defenses being disjointed and thus easily exploited. But 2017/2018? was all Wilson making quick passes.

Big difference then? He could trust his receivers. I wouldn't trust the Denver receivers for anything. They might not be terrible, but they sure aren't very good.

You made another good point on the timing offense. Wilson is not in sync with his receivers. That is everything in terms of accuracy. And he is almost certainly injured.

This year I expected him to struggle. And he has. Though I expected the last 3 - 4 games he goes on a tear, and that is doubtful if he continues to play hurt.
So really next year is the telling point. Not this year.

 

[chrispy]

Every player, including QBs, have strengths and weaknesses. Just as we're witnessing individual LBs are better in different schemes, so are QBs.

The point we're not expressing is that in this particular case, the individual, RCW, does not accept that he has weaknesses. He envisions himself as a great pocket passer, as being great at pre-snap reads, as comfortable throwing over the middle, as tall. So a coach (whether Carroll, Hackett or numerous OCs) can design a system and call particular plays but it falls apart when those plays and that system is abandoned. RCW sees it as being "held back" and his lack of "control". How can someone assign accountability to Hackett when we already know RCW won't run a system that plays to his strengths? He just forced his way out of exactly that.

 

[Spin Doctor]

I agree with most of the points here.

I'm sure we all remember 2015. Russ had a 7.73 ANY/A with a 68.1% completion rating and a 34-8 TD/INT ratio. Those are top 1 QB numbers that rewrote the narrative from him being a system QB to a superstar, and the obvious conclusion is that things must have been working pretty well that season. Great play on Russ's part with lots of work put in, strong running game to keep the offense on schedule, good scheme and play calling on the OC's part to maximize his strengths, strong receiver play from Baldwin and Lockett, good endzone production from Graham.

Of course that wasn't the take at the time, with the fallout from the Super Bowl still hanging over Bevell and then that bad 10am divisional loss to the Panthers where the offense didn't even show up to the stadium until after halftime.

In reality, it's far more likely that a player putting up A+ numbers is being put in a good situation to succeed than that they are secretly an A+++ talent being wasted. Looking back on things it was unrealistic for so many fans at the time to assume that Russ should be playing even better and that's probably mostly to do with the desire many fans have to claim that their favorite player is the best.

I think most people just wanted consistency above all else. Our offenses over the years have been extremely hot and cold on a quarter to quarter basis. We always could execute the big plays but the little procedural stuff always was a huge thorn in our side.

Again, I'm not saying Wilson was a bad QB, I'm saying I applaud Carroll for putting him in a position to succeed despite having a really unique and somewhat limited skill set compared to some of his peers. Seeing Geno operate out of the same system also made me realize some of Wilson's flaws and limitations. I noted them when he first came into the league but I had deluded myself into thinking he moved past them.

2015 was probably what I would call Wilson's most complete year as a passer. He made a lot of improvements in his short game but they didn't carry over to the other seasons. He just went back to blasting people deep.

Wilson is a complex QB. He's quite possibly one of the most unique and interesting cases of QB's to sustain success in the NFL in the modern era. I'm glad I got to see it unfold -- what was probably one of the greatest scramblers of all time if not the greatest at improv that the NFL has ever seen. I'm by no means saying he was a bad QB.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Every player, including QBs, have strengths and weaknesses. Just as we're witnessing individual LBs are better in different schemes, so are QBs.

The point we're not expressing is that in this particular case, the individual, RCW, does not accept that he has weaknesses. He envisions himself as a great pocket passer, as being great at pre-snap reads, as comfortable throwing over the middle, as tall. So a coach (whether Carroll, Hackett or numerous OCs) can design a system and call particular plays but it falls apart when those plays and that system is abandoned. RCW sees it as being "held back" and his lack of "control". How can someone assign accountability to Hackett when we already know RCW won't run a system that plays to his strengths? He just forced his way out of exactly that.

Hackett is trying to run a WCO of offense that requires complex option routes and puts a huge burden on Wilson to make reads at the LOS. He's also being forced to run a lot of timing routes that require the ball be thrown to where the receiver is going to be. The problem is that I suspect that Wilson believes he can run that style of offense when clearly he can't. The Hackett, Wilson partnership is fundamentally broken.

If I was Hackett I would try to bring in someone like Schottenheimer to run the offense if he's around next season. Out of all of our coordinators he was the one that really seemed to understand Wilson's skillset and what worked with him the best.

 

[hawksincebirth]

Every player, including QBs, have strengths and weaknesses. Just as we're witnessing individual LBs are better in different schemes, so are QBs.

The point we're not expressing is that in this particular case, the individual, RCW, does not accept that he has weaknesses. He envisions himself as a great pocket passer, as being great at pre-snap reads, as comfortable throwing over the middle, as tall. So a coach (whether Carroll, Hackett or numerous OCs) can design a system and call particular plays but it falls apart when those plays and that system is abandoned. RCW sees it as being "held back" and his lack of "control". How can someone assign accountability to Hackett when we already know RCW won't run a system that plays to his strengths? He just forced his way out of exactly that.

Can I have Russ’s number since you are in contact with him clearly.

 

[LeaveLynchAlone]

Interesting logic.
I will give it up to Pete, I was expecting a run first, TyWillinghamesque offense. Pete went pass first with Geno. Sounds like he is letting Waldron do his job. That is good stuff and an intelligent move by Pete I didn't think he would be able to make.

But judging Wilson's entire tenure by this 5 game stretch and then extrapolating it over the entire Seahawk period makes no sense.
For one, do you want to use this season's results to judge accomplishments?
Well then clearly Pete never was that great at defense in the league and his DCs were just propping him up. Ridiculous right?
Based on the past 5 games, Pete was a horrific coach and only was any good when he had Wilson and the LOB.

Wilson is an aging QB that came off an injury, and might even be injured now.
Not sure we saw him be near as effective after the injury.
It stands to reason that some of the issues we had with getting the snap off were Wilson - he doesn't read defenses before the snap well. Never had to because he reads defenses postsnap extremely well.

But I suspect that a healthy or younger Wilson would do just fine in Denver. His struggles are likely more a function of where he is now - not what he was. And also a function of not being on the same page with the WRs and not really having WRs you would want to be on the same page with in the first place. Also, his coach is Paul Hackett's son. Let that sink in for a minute. (Ask a USC fan who Paul Hackett is.)



(It should also be noted that their receivers are between dogsh*t and OK. Maybe Tim is OK. But the other guys don't make easy catches all the time, drop crucial balls, and aren't even that good a high-pointing the ball. Barely even that good at getting open.)

Dance, dance, dance.

 

[fenderbender123]

Somewhere, Pete Carroll is reading this thread and saying to himself "apology accepted".