And now you see.

[Ozzy]

He doesn’t though. He was 11th in tow%. Darnold was like 4th.

he lead the league two years ago in turnover worthy throws. I'd also argue with Geno its the timing of his turnovers more than the actual number. He's wildly accurate but just seems to make mistakes at the worst possible time hence leading the league in red zone interceptions and leading the league in intercepts in his own red zone. For me those carry extra weight.

I feel like he's cleaned up his overall turnover worthy throws so its odd he just struggles in those two areas so much.

The idea that if you fix the line Geno will be much better just doesn't make sense to me based on the above. if the line is leading to so many picks and bad plays then why isn't his % higher? I think he already does a good job navigating a bad line (other than holding on too long at times) and a lot of his picks are just boneheaded throws.

Obviously getting the running game going, offense having more balance etc will help Geno a little but I'm not convinced he turns into this top 10 elite guy with a better line, the turnover worthy plays % and the timing of his mistakes just don't align if that is the case.

Having said all of that I would approach the off season the same way. If Geno is my best option then sure fix the line and see what happens.

 

[Ozzy]

I watched 4 Lions games this year and Goff had at least one of those in each game. So whats the deal?

So if Geno's ints that werent his fault get explained away as 'every qb has those'... well every qb also has INt that should have been but were dropped.

But none of those qbs are also the most accurate in the league, despite having an inept offense that telegraphs that they are passing 75% of the time.

Still, no one can explain how a guy who leads the league in accuracy is also so bad at not seeing the other teams jersey color that he is worth ditching because of INTs.

Its comical because at the beginning of the year, if someone had said Geno woukd play so well he'd hit his career best incentive marks, even the GeNo crowd woukd have said 'ok, if he does that, he is worth it'.

Now, the fact that he has INts is the sticking point. Forget he is passing in one of the more backwards offenses in the league and that half of those ints have been shown to nit be his fault. Take out the wr / team INts and his percentage is 1.4%, good for 5th best.

All while in an offense that is..

League low in motion
League low in rushing attempts
League low in play action
League low in shotgun.
League high in quick pressure allowed.

... and then, knowing that last fact,

Near league high in calling long developing plays on 3rd and 4 or less that result in sacks.

Geno's acrual 'own' ints were a result of trying to make something of very little to nothing, in an offense that was garbage at actually scheming success, especially in compressed field situations.

Geno's time to throw was actually middle of the pack. They did lead in quick pressures allowed so the most plays that just blew up but overall they were fairly average.

You made the point about being super accurate (which I agree) and dropped picks but like I posted earlier Geno did lead the league in this category during his best year two years ago. So you can be two things. Super accurate and a bad decision maker at times. Baker actually struggles in the same way. He makes a ton of great plays as 40+ touchdowns will tell you and he also is a little bit of a gunslinger hence the higher int rates. You can be super accurate and still throw a lot of picks I guess is my point.

 

[GemCity]

The one thing I love about Geno is his game isn’t dependent on mobility. He’s one of the most fundamentally sound QBs in the league.

I agree that we’ve likely seen Geno’s peak. TBH, his peak is being a pretty damn good QB.

Geno isn’t/wasn’t the main issue. The main issue was fired today. If Geno can maintain…behind an improved line…we’ll be in good shape.

I still believe we need to start ‘taking shots’ in the draft. Unless I’m missing something and Sam Howell is going to take the reigns one day, I’d like to see a ‘homegrown’ guy and not someone’s left overs once Geno is gone.

Easier said than done…

 

[MontanaHawk05]

166 yards and no interceptions in the last game of a 14+ win season? I can't say that's a bad look on Darnold. Everyone has down games.

 

[SonicHawk]

Darnold was bad. He got lucky not having picks and missed JJ multiple times for TDs. That hasn't been the norm though, Darnold has been pretty solid, although not as impressive as the record suggests.

 

[SonicHawk]

Geno's time to throw was actually middle of the pack. They did lead in quick pressures allowed so the most plays that just blew up but overall they were fairly average.

You made the point about being super accurate (which I agree) and dropped picks but like I posted earlier Geno did lead the league in this category during his best year two years ago. So you can be two things. Super accurate and a bad decision maker at times. Baker actually struggles in the same way. He makes a ton of great plays as 40+ touchdowns will tell you and he also is a little bit of a gunslinger hence the higher int rates. You can be super accurate and still throw a lot of picks I guess is my point.

Geno had his best year in TWP% this year.

2022 - 4.2%
2023 - 3.6%
2024 - 2.7%

He also had his lowest "Big Time Throw %"

2022 - 5.6%
2023 - 6.0%
2024 - 4.5%

His Big Time Throw % was higher than Baker and his TWP% was lower than Baker's.

I thought it might be interesting to see the spread. I have learned nothing from this list. This is min dropbacks of 50% of 725 from PFF.

Lamar Jackson +4.6% (Lowest TWP%)
Josh Allen +4.5% (Highest BTT%)
Bryce Young +4.1%
Justin Herbert +4%
Russell Wilson +4%
Joe Burrow +3.4%
Aaron Rodgers +2.4%
Jayden Daniels +2.2%
Kyler Murray +2.1%
Sam Darnold +2%
Geno Smith +1.8%
CJ Stroud +1.7%
Bo Nix +1.6%
Caleb Williams +1.3%
Jordan Love +.8%
Patrick Mahomes +.8%
Matthew Stafford +.6%
Jalen Hurts +.3%
Jared Goff +.3%
Will Levis +.3%
Drake Maye +.2%
Baker Mayfield +.1%
Brock Purdy +.1%
Tua EVEN
Daniel Jones -.3% (Lowest BTT%)
Kirk Cousins -1.9% (Highest TWP%)

I don't think Geno gets dumber in the RZ. I think it's entirely possible that Grubb just sucked and didn't get the most out of this offense. I have another data-focused thread I'm working on that takes a look at third downs.

While our Oline sucks and needs to be improved, it may have just been Grubb!?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Grubb threw all those picks and dropped picks?

/sarcasm

 

[keasley45]

Geno had his best year in TWP% this year.

2022 - 4.2%
2023 - 3.6%
2024 - 2.7%

He also had his lowest "Big Time Throw %"

2022 - 5.6%
2023 - 6.0%
2024 - 4.5%

His Big Time Throw % was higher than Baker and his TWP% was lower than Baker's.

I thought it might be interesting to see the spread. I have learned nothing from this list. This is min dropbacks of 50% of 725 from PFF.

Lamar Jackson +4.6% (Lowest TWP%)
Josh Allen +4.5% (Highest BTT%)
Bryce Young +4.1%
Justin Herbert +4%
Russell Wilson +4%
Joe Burrow +3.4%
Aaron Rodgers +2.4%
Jayden Daniels +2.2%
Kyler Murray +2.1%
Sam Darnold +2%
Geno Smith +1.8%
CJ Stroud +1.7%
Bo Nix +1.6%
Caleb Williams +1.3%
Jordan Love +.8%
Patrick Mahomes +.8%
Matthew Stafford +.6%
Jalen Hurts +.3%
Jared Goff +.3%
Will Levis +.3%
Drake Maye +.2%
Baker Mayfield +.1%
Brock Purdy +.1%
Tua EVEN
Daniel Jones -.3% (Lowest BTT%)
Kirk Cousins -1.9% (Highest TWP%)

I don't think Geno gets dumber in the RZ. I think it's entirely possible that Grubb just sucked and didn't get the most out of this offense. I have another data-focused thread I'm working on that takes a look at third downs.

While our Oline sucks and needs to be improved, it may have just been Grubb!?

Excellent stuff.

Been saying it for a while that the redzone struggles have been way overblown and dropped in Geno's lap when in reality, the offense has just been awful the more compressed the field gets.

The concepts Grubb ran were great at deep shots, which required more time to develop than he was accustomed to in the college game, and the short game, which worked well early to mid season but then was solved.

He just wasnt cut out to coordinate at the pro level and his shortcomings were plain to see if you watch the tape.

 

[Scout]

His decision making has regressed. I stick to my opinion on that.

Geno is the same QB that I remember him as for along time. Mayfield, Goff an Darnold aren't any different really.

I think as fans we are spoiled by having Wilson and now Geno. It could be worse you could be seeing Winston as the starter where he can pass for 30 TDs but also complete 30 INTs.

 

[warden]

98 % of the QBs in this league do not play well when under constant pressure. That is why pass rushing defensive lineman are at such a premium

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Geno is the same QB that I remember him as for along time. Mayfield, Goff an Darnold aren't any different really.

I think as fans we are spoiled by having Wilson and now Geno. It could be worse you could be seeing Winston as the starter where he can pass for 30 TDs but also complete 30 INTs.

Fair points.

 

[SonicHawk]

Geno is the same QB that I remember him as for along time. Mayfield, Goff an Darnold aren't any different really.

I think as fans we are spoiled by having Wilson and now Geno. It could be worse you could be seeing Winston as the starter where he can pass for 30 TDs but also complete 30 INTs.

I agree. RW really was a special player.

RW led the league in BTT/TWP% difference in 2019 & 2018 -- top 5 -- 2021,2020,2016,2017