A mind-blowing stat about Aaron Rodgers

[volsunghawk]

I think Rodgers quarterbacks a soft team.

When they won the title, that was an outstanding defense, and it took a defensive play from a DB to keep the Falcons from beating them in the 4th. The Pack rediscovered a dormant run game in those playoffs too.

Since then, they have squandered a 15-1 season in full on wimp style, and almost completely lost the will to run the ball. The run game is purely a changeup for them, a problem they are trying to fix with running backs. Too bad I think it is an OL issue.

The D-line has miscast players now, and they have lost the nasty they need to stop the run. Raji should not be a nose ever, and the linebackers are adequate only, with the exception of Matthews.

Point is, outside of Rodgers and his pass catchers, that is a team with holes and has been for a while now. A GB team that is not built to win in the cold is kind of dumb. Rodgers 4th quarter difficulties agianst winning teams could be a result of those things too.

I agree totally and, not to beat a dead horse, but I have to wonder...what does that really say about Matt Flynn's outstanding performances? The knock was, well, that's such an outstanding team. If so, then Rodgers really isn't all that special is he? If not and what you say is true, then the knock on Flynn isn't all that legitimate is it?

Flynn's performance against the Lions in 2011 included a 4th quarter where the Packers trailed and then took the lead. However, that game included something that didn't happen a single time in the 18 games I looked at for Rodgers: the Packers D picked off the opposing QB to end a scoring threat. If you look at the gamelog, Stafford had completed 3 straight passes to move from the Lions 20 to the Packers 37 in 37 seconds. Detroit still had a timeout and were a legitimate threat to score. Had the Lions scored, that game ends 48-45, Lions. Does that increase or decrease the knock on Flynn?

The point is that if you look at that 18 game sample from Rodgers, he had some excellent performances and some bad ones. They just happened to all be in losses. If you look at every single other regular season game Rodgers has played as the starter, he's gone 52-10 while leading an offense that (in his time as starter) has ranked in the top 5 in points scored in every season but 1 since 2008 and ranked in the top 10 in yards in 4 out of those 5 seasons. So let's not try to take that 18-game sample where the offense SOMETIMES faltered and use it to prop up some ridiculous notion that Flynn wasn't playing with such outstanding weapons.

1-game samples are stupid. :34853_doh:

 

[Sarlacc83]

Hasselbeck has got to be rooting for that to happen because it would at least semi-validate his early season opinion about Flynn starting over Russell.

Hasselbeck doesn't seem like the kind of guy that needs his ego validated that way, IMO.

I don't mean it as an ego thing, but I don't care who you are, it's better to know that your opinions aren't based on fantasy. It's catharsis.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Well, yeah, I agree; but I'm saying, I don't think Hasselbeck has even had that thought enter his mind. Who knows, though?

@Volsung: Yeah, one-game samples are stupid/irrelevant/etc., but it's all people really have to go on for Flynn. *shrug*

 

[Scottemojo]

I agree totally and, not to beat a dead horse, but I have to wonder...what does that really say about Matt Flynn's outstanding performances? The knock was, well, that's such an outstanding team. If so, then Rodgers really isn't all that special is he? If not and what you say is true, then the knock on Flynn isn't all that legitimate is it?

Stuff like this is why I want to see Flynn be a 16-game starter for some team, to see how he does. Nobody knows what Flynn might bring to the table, IMO; just pure guesswork.

yeah, too bad he got sent to the QB graveyard that is Oakland. Maybe things will turn around over there and we'll see what Flynn really has? Who knows?

First off, we will get to see what Flynn has this year, my guess is he loses his job to another Wilson by week 8. I stand by my assessment that Flynn stinks.
Second, a week 17 performance by two playoff bound teams, and Detroit's depleted secondary have as much to do with the big numbers as the fact that they were raping that secondary with the best pass catchers in the league. I said it was a soft team, not a bad team. Just like the 05 Hawks were a soft team, but still plenty capable of winning a title.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Detroit had the 4th-ranked secondary in the NFL that year, per Football Outsiders. Did they have backups playing that game, or something? If not, other reasons need to be found for knocking Flynn that don't include Detroit's DB corps at the time.

 

[Scottemojo]

Detroit had the 4th-ranked secondary in the NFL that year, per Football Outsiders. Did they have backups playing that game, or something? If not, other reasons need to be found for knocking Flynn that don't include Detroit's DB corps at the time.

Depleted and banged up. Delmas was out, another corner played hurt, and like I said, week 17, playoffs locked up for both teams.

Also, check Football Outsiders. Detroit was the 21st ranked pass D(weighted) that year, and most assuredly even worse than that without their best secondary player, Delmas.
Also, they were 2nd to last covering number 2 WRs, and 26th covering TEs in 2011. So yeah, I discount Flynn's game. Oakland will prove me right, I am positive.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I think you looked at 2012, Scotte. Their pass defense is ranked 21st on there. 2011, though, which is the year Flynn had his epic game, they were 4th.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2011

Also, where do you see weighted pass defense at? They have weighted overall defense, which was 13th for Detroit in 2011; but I don't know where there is a weighted pass defense metric. If there is one, I would like to know, certainly.

However, losing a starting DB hurts on any team not named the Seattle Seahawks, so I'm sure it made a considerable difference.

 

[Scottemojo]

Ahh, correct. The weighted D rank was 24 in 2012, my bad.
They were missing a 3rd down DT for that game too. But to really get the idea of how bad it was, go watch the game on gamepass. It was touch football. There were 103 passes in the game. Aaron Rodgers was the play caller for GB. It simply was not a game either team took seriously.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I did watch the game last off-season, and the defense didn't look good, that's true; but I'm not sure both teams took it as a joke. If we had a week 17 game against the 49ers, and both teams were already in the playoffs and the outcome wouldn't change the seeding, do you think our players still wouldn't try to kick the 49ers' teeth in? Lions and Packers are divisional foes, after all.

 

[Scottemojo]

I did watch the game last off-season, and the defense didn't look good, that's true; but I'm not sure both teams took it as a joke. If we had a week 17 game against the 49ers, and both teams were already in the playoffs and the outcome wouldn't change the seeding, do you think our players still wouldn't try to kick the 49ers' teeth in? Lions and Packers are divisional foes, after all.

1000 yards passing.

 

[RichNhansom]

Ahh, correct. The weighted D rank was 24 in 2012, my bad.
They were missing a 3rd down DT for that game too. But to really get the idea of how bad it was, go watch the game on gamepass. It was touch football. There were 103 passes in the game. Aaron Rodgers was the play caller for GB. It simply was not a game either team took seriously.

The only team that was playing for nothing was the Packers though. The Lions were playing for higher seeding so that argument doesn't really hold. As for missing a DB the Packers were also playing minus Jennings and Starks so if the DB matters so should the WR and RB. Not to mention not having your OC calling the game. Rogers called it but Flynn executed it and that game went back and forth many times and Flynn answered the call each time.

I don't know how good Flynn will be in Oakland. I don't have high hopes for his success there but then even if he is replaced I doubt his replacement will do any better and will likely look much worse.

 

[Scottemojo]

Ahh, correct. The weighted D rank was 24 in 2012, my bad.
They were missing a 3rd down DT for that game too. But to really get the idea of how bad it was, go watch the game on gamepass. It was touch football. There were 103 passes in the game. Aaron Rodgers was the play caller for GB. It simply was not a game either team took seriously.

The only team that was playing for nothing was the Packers though. The Lions were playing for higher seeding so that argument doesn't really hold. As for missing a DB the Packers were also playing minus Jennings and Starks so if the DB matters so should the WR and RB. Not to mention not having your OC calling the game. Rogers called it but Flynn executed it and that game went back and forth many times and Flynn answered the call each time.

I don't know how good Flynn will be in Oakland. I don't have high hopes for his success there but then even if he is replaced I doubt his replacement will do any better and will likely look much worse.

And a week later, the Lions gave up a record 626 yards and never forced one punt while playing the Saints. They were playing for something then too. Like I said, that D was gutted in the secondary.

Flynn's a replacement level QB. He has strengths, he is a quick decision maker. A lot of are bad, but they are quick. Otherwise he has a weak arm, a check down mentality, and IMO, he is a pouty wench. The next Wilson to take his job will be better than him too.

It had to hurt him last year when following the Bears game the locker room applauded him for calling a great coin flip, then gave a game ball to Wilson. He sure looked like someone pooped in his mouth right about then.

 

[RichNhansom]

Well I commend you for your commitment. I don't agree with your view but you are obviously passionate about it.

I prefer to believe he is a good QB that the coaches faced a tough decision and Wilson gave them enough confidence to start him even over another good QB but hey that's just me. If you want to believe he was only our starter because Flynn sucked then that's your option. You can't ignore the decision came right down to the wire.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I don't know if he'll be a good QB or not, but I do feel kind of bad for him. It's not his fault Wilson's elite as all hell and beat him out. I hope he does well in Oakland, and not just because I'd die laughing if they knock off the Broncos for the division crown. (Though I obviously believe that is very unlikely to happen.)

 

[drastik]

Shows how worthless the 4th quarter comeback stat is..

Yeah, because since Aaron Rodgers is elite, it means he has no weaknesses or areas in which he can improve.

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

I'm not sure why you would think that.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Shows how worthless the 4th quarter comeback stat is..

Yeah, because since Aaron Rodgers is elite, it means he has no weaknesses or areas in which he can improve.

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

I'm not sure why you would think that.

Your sarcasm detector is irrevocably broken if the rolling eyes spam didn't clue you in, lol. Someone else implied that, I made fun of them about it.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

Take a moment to guess at this, then I'll post the answer. The question is, how many 4th quarter comebacks has Aaron Rodgers led against teams above .500 in his career? (That is, teams that finished the regular season with a winning record.)

Think about it for a moment. I would say a good number for an elite quarterback would be 50%, or something around that number. You can't expect to win 'em all; and they aren't responsible for defensive breakdowns or a great special teams play by the opponent, and stuff like that. Regardless, think about what percentage you consider would be the minimum for any QB to meet if they were elite. 35% of 4th quarter comeback attempts against winning teams needed to be elite? 53%? Whatever that number is, think about it compared to what that number is for Aaron Rodgers, posted below.











***NO PEEKING***

Here's the pic linked in that Tweet, the proof:




Kearly, Scotte, Absolut, and other NFL minds of the forum; are you guys as blown away by this as I am? I'm flabbergasted. It makes me smile, considering how much of an "NFL Golden Boy" Rodgers is, too; not going to lie. Russell Wilson already has four 4th-quarter comebacks including the playoffs, and all four were against winning teams! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... r=WilsRu00

What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?

I would say it has more to do with the fact that Rodgers has no one else to take up the slack. He doesn't have a legitimate offensive line, a good running back, etc. He has a couple good WRs, but they are constantly getting injured. Rarely has he had an entire arsenal to work with.

I know you want to praise Wilson, but Rodgers didn't have the help that Wilson has had (Did you forget about Marshawn Lynch? Arguably a top 3 RB in the NFL?). I'm a 49er fan, so I'll say the same thing about Kaepernick. Neither of these guys have had to deal with the lack of help that Rodgers has the last couple of years. I hate the Packers. Maybe more than I hate the Seahawks. But Rodgers? This guy is bound for the Hall of Fame and "Best of All Time" discussions. The Packers are a one man team. The Seahawks? 49ers? No way. These teams are absolutely stacked.

 

[volsunghawk]

Well I commend you for your commitment. I don't agree with your view but you are obviously passionate about it.

I prefer to believe he is a good QB that the coaches faced a tough decision and Wilson gave them enough confidence to start him even over another good QB but hey that's just me. If you want to believe he was only our starter because Flynn sucked then that's your option. You can't ignore the decision came right down to the wire.

Now you're putting words in Scotte's mouth. Wilson was ONLY the starter because Flynn sucked?

Actually, Scotte said that Flynn is a replacement level QB. Perfectly average, with some positives and some negatives. Wilson was the starter because he made things happen on the field that Flynn didn't. That's a lot different than "only starting because the other guy sucked."

But you keep banging your drum for Flynn. I'm going to move on and enjoy the fact that we were able to buy a couple of low round draft picks and a coin flip for $10 million.

 

[KEWASTEES]

Thank you for this, now off to harass my Packers friend.