kearly
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#1: Cordarrelle Patterson will go earlier in the draft than people think.
He'll go top 15 at worst, and top 5 would not shock me. I realize that he is not a perfect prospect, but his upside is enormous and during draft season GMs tend to disproportionately focus on upside, especially in the top 10 picks. He's a bit like this year's version of Trent Richardson (albeit for different reasons). Richardson had enormous upside but most people did not project Richardson as a super high pick due his positional value. However, as the draft neared, it became clear the NFL GMs viewed Richardson as a very high draft pick- his total upside was just too great to ignore. Von Miller was a similar case the year before. And a few years before that, Aaron Curry (blech). Dontari Poe did not go in the top 10, but he still went much much higher than he deserved simply because his upside was so high.
Patterson still has some developing to do, but you almost never see players with his size that have moves like he does. That plus he just looks like a future NFL-pro-bowler. I like Patterson and I think he makes some sense for the Seahawks, but I'm not even bothering to get my hopes up for him. Seattle is probably going to make the playoffs, and Patterson is going to leave the board long before Seattle's first pick.
#2: Despite cooling off somewhat in the hype department, both Matt Barkley and Geno Smith will be top 5 picks.
The Chiefs will almost certainly clean house this offseason. New GM, new coach, new QB, and they have a very real shot at picking in the top 5. The Raiders are playing better than expected, but could still finish in the top 5, and they desperately need a good young QB. I don't think Dallas will pick in the top 5, but Jerry Jones might start thinking about life after Romo and he's shown no hesitancy in the past to move up for a player he likes. The Eagles might clean house this offseason- though the 2012 preseason performance of Nick Foles might prevent them from going QB. The slumping Cardinals could finish in the top 5 picks, and also end up cleaning house. QB is their obvious #1 need.
In my own personal opinion, disagree if you want, I think Barkley is roughly on par with Andrew Luck as an NFL prospect. Luck is the superior athlete, but Barkley handles pressure better and is more cerebral. I see Luck as being Big Ben 2.0, and I see Barkley as being Matt Stafford 2.0 (with less of an arm). Both are worthy of being top 5 draft picks. Geno Smith has made big strides this year and has become a legit top 15 caliber QB prospect. Due to a potential feeding frenzy at the top, I could see Smith going top five in a QB class that's thin at the top, similar to Mark Sanchez a few years back.
I've said for a while that I thought Barkley could slide, but I've changed my tune. Teams with big needs at QB are emerging, and the top of the 2013 QB class isn't as crowded as it could have been. It's still a good QB class top to bottom, but it's pretty clear that Barkley/Smith stand tall over the rest, in terms of draft stock.
People are down on Barkley right now, but I think that's really just a case of a sugar low coming off of an over-hyped offseason, very similar to Jake Locker a couple years ago. Barkley is a FAR better prospect than Locker, albeit with less maximum upside.
#3: Kenjon Barner could be a 1st round pick.
Oregon is known for having deadly college RBs, even more so during the Chip Kelly era. What separates Barner from his peers like Thomas and James is that he's actually living in an NFL sized body. At 5'11", 195 pounds, Barner is very close to prototypical size for an NFL running back. Barner is putting up huge performances at just the right time, and I seriously doubt his current hand injury will have any impact on his draft stock. Barner is a complete back that not only has speed but can break an arm tackle. Teams often make a run at RBs in the late 1st round and Barner will enter the 2013 draft as one of the best options. He's a far better prospect than David Wilson was, and Wilson was a 1st rounder last season (32nd overall).
#4: Tyler Wilson will still be a 1st round QB.
It was strongly inferred to Rob and I by a source that Seattle had their eye on a QB other than Barkley in 2013 (this was before they drafted Wilson) and had hopes of drafting him. The clues he gave us seemed to strongly imply Tyler Wilson. Wilson has had a tough season, but in terms of tools and smarts he's actually pretty comparable to Matt Barkley. There has been a gravitational effect in the last few drafts where QBs like Tannehill, Locker, and Ponder were all drafted much higher than their projections because QBs tend to be over-drafted. Wilson has everything you need to be a solid starting QB, and if a team like Dallas or even the Jets (recent history of drafting 1st round QBs) is sitting in the 10-15 range it wouldn't surprise me if they took him there.
He'll go top 15 at worst, and top 5 would not shock me. I realize that he is not a perfect prospect, but his upside is enormous and during draft season GMs tend to disproportionately focus on upside, especially in the top 10 picks. He's a bit like this year's version of Trent Richardson (albeit for different reasons). Richardson had enormous upside but most people did not project Richardson as a super high pick due his positional value. However, as the draft neared, it became clear the NFL GMs viewed Richardson as a very high draft pick- his total upside was just too great to ignore. Von Miller was a similar case the year before. And a few years before that, Aaron Curry (blech). Dontari Poe did not go in the top 10, but he still went much much higher than he deserved simply because his upside was so high.
Patterson still has some developing to do, but you almost never see players with his size that have moves like he does. That plus he just looks like a future NFL-pro-bowler. I like Patterson and I think he makes some sense for the Seahawks, but I'm not even bothering to get my hopes up for him. Seattle is probably going to make the playoffs, and Patterson is going to leave the board long before Seattle's first pick.
#2: Despite cooling off somewhat in the hype department, both Matt Barkley and Geno Smith will be top 5 picks.
The Chiefs will almost certainly clean house this offseason. New GM, new coach, new QB, and they have a very real shot at picking in the top 5. The Raiders are playing better than expected, but could still finish in the top 5, and they desperately need a good young QB. I don't think Dallas will pick in the top 5, but Jerry Jones might start thinking about life after Romo and he's shown no hesitancy in the past to move up for a player he likes. The Eagles might clean house this offseason- though the 2012 preseason performance of Nick Foles might prevent them from going QB. The slumping Cardinals could finish in the top 5 picks, and also end up cleaning house. QB is their obvious #1 need.
In my own personal opinion, disagree if you want, I think Barkley is roughly on par with Andrew Luck as an NFL prospect. Luck is the superior athlete, but Barkley handles pressure better and is more cerebral. I see Luck as being Big Ben 2.0, and I see Barkley as being Matt Stafford 2.0 (with less of an arm). Both are worthy of being top 5 draft picks. Geno Smith has made big strides this year and has become a legit top 15 caliber QB prospect. Due to a potential feeding frenzy at the top, I could see Smith going top five in a QB class that's thin at the top, similar to Mark Sanchez a few years back.
I've said for a while that I thought Barkley could slide, but I've changed my tune. Teams with big needs at QB are emerging, and the top of the 2013 QB class isn't as crowded as it could have been. It's still a good QB class top to bottom, but it's pretty clear that Barkley/Smith stand tall over the rest, in terms of draft stock.
People are down on Barkley right now, but I think that's really just a case of a sugar low coming off of an over-hyped offseason, very similar to Jake Locker a couple years ago. Barkley is a FAR better prospect than Locker, albeit with less maximum upside.
#3: Kenjon Barner could be a 1st round pick.
Oregon is known for having deadly college RBs, even more so during the Chip Kelly era. What separates Barner from his peers like Thomas and James is that he's actually living in an NFL sized body. At 5'11", 195 pounds, Barner is very close to prototypical size for an NFL running back. Barner is putting up huge performances at just the right time, and I seriously doubt his current hand injury will have any impact on his draft stock. Barner is a complete back that not only has speed but can break an arm tackle. Teams often make a run at RBs in the late 1st round and Barner will enter the 2013 draft as one of the best options. He's a far better prospect than David Wilson was, and Wilson was a 1st rounder last season (32nd overall).
#4: Tyler Wilson will still be a 1st round QB.
It was strongly inferred to Rob and I by a source that Seattle had their eye on a QB other than Barkley in 2013 (this was before they drafted Wilson) and had hopes of drafting him. The clues he gave us seemed to strongly imply Tyler Wilson. Wilson has had a tough season, but in terms of tools and smarts he's actually pretty comparable to Matt Barkley. There has been a gravitational effect in the last few drafts where QBs like Tannehill, Locker, and Ponder were all drafted much higher than their projections because QBs tend to be over-drafted. Wilson has everything you need to be a solid starting QB, and if a team like Dallas or even the Jets (recent history of drafting 1st round QBs) is sitting in the 10-15 range it wouldn't surprise me if they took him there.
