David Troy:Fox News -Why defending Champs could struggle

[Count Hawkula]

 

[flv2]

What's the present over/under for regular season wins per Vegas?

Current Seahawks odds as per Pinnacle:

Over 10.5 wins -126
Under 10.5 wins +104

Super Bowl Champion +1220 (5th favourite).

NFC Champion +557 (2nd favourite).

NFC West Champion +205 (2nd favourite).

Sam Darnold Regular Season Passing Yards
Over 3699.5 yards -110
Under 3699.5 yards -110

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receiving Yards:
Over 1324.5 yards -113
Under 1324.5 yards -107

Jadarian Price Regular Season Rushing Yards:
Over 749.5 yards -110
Under 749.5 yards -110

 

[Trackhawk]

I'm not a gambler. What does the =/- 105 mean?

It reflects the favored outcome, and how much you would have to bet to win $100.

At -105, you would have to bet $105 to win $100. At -150, you would have to bet $150 to win $100

Conversely, and somewhat confusingly, + odds show how much you would win on a $100 bet. +105, means a $100 bet earns $105. +150 earns $150 on a $100 bet.

I’m sure @flv2 can provide a more subtle, mathematical explanation if needed.

 

[flv2]

It reflects the favored outcome, and how much you would have to bet to win $100.

At -105, you would have to bet $105 to win $100. At -150, you would have to bet $150 to win $100

Conversely, and somewhat confusingly, + odds show how much you would win on a $100 bet. +105, means a $100 bet earns $105. +150 earns $150 on a $100 bet.

I’m sure @flv2 can provide a more subtle, mathematical explanation if needed.

This is correct.

Historically, (particularly in the UK), odds are displayed in a 2-1 or 2/1 style format. This would mean you'd win 2 for every 1 staked. It implies 2 chances of losing for every 1 chance of winning, or more importantly 1 chance in 3 total or 33.333%.

The US style is to display odds as + returns to 100 where there is an equal to or less than a 50% chance of winning and - returns to 100 where there is a greater than 50% chance. Thus +200 would be winning 200 to a 100 stake, (2-1 or 2/1 in UK terminology). -200 would mean you had to bet 200 to win 100, (1-2 or 1/2 in UK terminology). -200 implies you have 200 chances of winning for every 100 chances of losing. IE 200 chances of winning out of 300 total...or 66.666%.

Many sportsbooks now display odds in a format of returns to a 1 unit stake. Thus 2-1, 2/1, or +200 would be displayed as 3.000 or 3 at a site like Pinnacle. 1-2, 1/2, or -200 would be displayed as 1.500 or 1.5. Normally such sites display all returns to 3 decimal places.

If you work out the percentages for each possible outcome you can work out what the total 'book price' is. This would be the sum total of each outcome's percentage. On a -110, -110 2-outcome event each outcome would equate to a 52.381% chance. The total book would equate to 104.762%. The sportsbook would be looking to win 4.762 out of every 104.762 units wagered if there were equal liabilities on each outcome. Generally the more possible outcomes there are the greater the book price.

 

[GeekHawk]

Thanks guys! I'm definitely putting some money on the 'over' if it stays around 10.5 wins. There's no damn way we're losing 7 games this season.

 

[themunn]

Genuinely think we will be better this year than last, barring any major injuries, which are always a risk, but the better teams do well to avoid them through great strength and conditioning training (minus of course the freak injuries).

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Yep, I can't see any reason why this team won't be as good or better. So they lost a couple of guys, meh.

 

[Trackhawk]

Are the Niners in the 10.5 conversation? Still iffy at WR I believe, aging players, and they have yet to kick the injury bug. Purdy is also a question mark about what he will do. But if Kittle and McCaffrey go down, Purdy's go to guys will keep him in check IMHO.

Niners are a very bipolar team. They either exceed or fail expectations by a wide margin. Probably one of the harder teams to bet on.

How they managed 12 wins last season is a testament to Shanahan's ability to overcome injuries and somehow field a competitive team. Why they lost 11 games the season before should likely also be ascribed to Shanahan, and the unreasonable number of injuries his teams face.

Should CMC have another year like 2025, they likely exceed 10 wins by a comfortable margin. Should CMC have another year like 2024, they likely bomb. Shanahan only has so many lives, and he has used most of them at this point.

If I was a betting man, I wouldn't go over or under on the Niners. Too risky, and there are far better bets out there.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I'm def. not counting the Niners out. Shoot, they were one win from having the 1 seed. With a TON of injuries

 

[94Smith]

There's no damn way we're losing 7 games this season.

Injuries usually are the outlier. Also the over 10.5 is currently quite favored given the odds

 

[Mike MacDarnold]

Current Seahawks odds as per Pinnacle:

Over 10.5 wins -126
Under 10.5 wins +104

Super Bowl Champion +1220 (5th favourite).

NFC Champion +557 (2nd favourite).

NFC West Champion +205 (2nd favourite).

Sam Darnold Regular Season Passing Yards
Over 3699.5 yards -110
Under 3699.5 yards -110

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receiving Yards:
Over 1324.5 yards -113
Under 1324.5 yards -107

Jadarian Price Regular Season Rushing Yards:
Over 749.5 yards -110
Under 749.5 yards -110

I think I saw an O/U for 22.5 TD passes for Darnold, might take a nibble on that.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

In a heartbeat

 

[94Smith]

Should CMC have another year like 2024, they likely bomb.

It was not just losing CMC at the running back in 2024. He was out from week one, but Mitchell was out during training camp. Then jordan Mason started out promising and got injured. Then Isaac Guerrendo was also promising and got injured. So they were down to the 5th string running back

Shanahan has shown that multiple running backs can have success in his system. Jordan James and Kaelon Black have pass catching ability and should be able to spell CMC off this year and be a poor mans back up if he goes down

Also, options at WR should be better this year compared to last year and 2024. 49er WR last year could not separate and had minimal speed out wide. Ricky Pearsall played with an injured PCL all year and was a rookie late in 2024 after getting shot

So, no, I don't feel if CMC gets injured they will bomb. Under 10.5 is possible though

 

[JayhawkMike]

This is correct.

Historically, (particularly in the UK), odds are displayed in a 2-1 or 2/1 style format. This would mean you'd win 2 for every 1 staked. It implies 2 chances of losing for every 1 chance of winning, or more importantly 1 chance in 3 total or 33.333%.

The US style is to display odds as + returns to 100 where there is an equal to or less than a 50% chance of winning and - returns to 100 where there is a greater than 50% chance. Thus +200 would be winning 200 to a 100 stake, (2-1 or 2/1 in UK terminology). -200 would mean you had to bet 200 to win 100, (1-2 or 1/2 in UK terminology). -200 implies you have 200 chances of winning for every 100 chances of losing. IE 200 chances of winning out of 300 total...or 66.666%.

Many sportsbooks now display odds in a format of returns to a 1 unit stake. Thus 2-1, 2/1, or +200 would be displayed as 3.000 or 3 at a site like Pinnacle. 1-2, 1/2, or -200 would be displayed as 1.500 or 1.5. Normally such sites display all returns to 3 decimal places.

If you work out the percentages for each possible outcome you can work out what the total 'book price' is. This would be the sum total of each outcome's percentage. On a -110, -110 2-outcome event each outcome would equate to a 52.381% chance. The total book would equate to 104.762%. The sportsbook would be looking to win 4.762 out of every 104.762 units wagered if there were equal liabilities on each outcome. Generally the more possible outcomes there are the greater the book price.

Thank you. While I do pretty good on NFL and NBA games I was never sure how to determine the house's cut.

 

[JayhawkMike]

It was not just losing CMC at the running back in 2024. He was out from week one, but Mitchell was out during training camp. Then jordan Mason started out promising and got injured. Then Isaac Guerrendo was also promising and got injured. So they were down to the 5th string running back

Shanahan has shown that multiple running backs can have success in his system. Jordan James and Kaelon Black have pass catching ability and should be able to spell CMC off this year and be a poor mans back up if he goes down

Also, options at WR should be better this year compared to last year and 2024. 49er WR last year could not separate and had minimal speed out wide. Ricky Pearsall played with an injured PCL all year and was a rookie late in 2024 after getting shot

So, no, I don't feel if CMC gets injured they will bomb. Under 10.5 is possible though

Maybe Aiyuk will have a good year?

 

[pmedic920]

lol Fox News. Sure, let's take this seriously.

It would be unrealistic expect the same crazy good injury luck we had last year, so a couple of wins fewer isn't out of the question, but "struggle" is pretty absurd.

You say this like you believe Fox News is worse than the rest of them.

That’s laughable, all of the mainstreams suck, unless one is seeking confirmation bias.
In that case I catch your drift.

 

[Appyhawk]

Thank you. While I do pretty good on NFL and NBA games I was never sure how to determine the house's cut.

The house cut is a % of the total amount wagered. That % is usually in the range of 3-3.5% That is deducted from the pool first. Then the odds of winning are set based on the pool balance. So the house does not care, and is not effected by, who wins or loses. Their job is just to encourage more bets.

 

[Trackhawk]

It was not just losing CMC at the running back in 2024. He was out from week one, but Mitchell was out during training camp. Then jordan Mason started out promising and got injured. Then Isaac Guerrendo was also promising and got injured. So they were down to the 5th string running back

Shanahan has shown that multiple running backs can have success in his system. Jordan James and Kaelon Black have pass catching ability and should be able to spell CMC off this year and be a poor mans back up if he goes down

Also, options at WR should be better this year compared to last year and 2024. 49er WR last year could not separate and had minimal speed out wide. Ricky Pearsall played with an injured PCL all year and was a rookie late in 2024 after getting shot

So, no, I don't feel if CMC gets injured they will bomb. Under 10.5 is possible though

Oh, I get that. I remember watching y'alls games and wondering who the hell you had in at RB in '24.

IF history has any predictive value, though, one would have to think that another boatload of injuries is headed the Niners way in 2026. Why would we expect it to be any different than in years past?

Now you have two rookies, who have never taken a snap in the NFL, as your only hope if CMC goes down?

I still don't understand why you didn't keep Robinson. He looked very good last year, to my eye, and history suggests you will need more than two backups anyway.

Shanahan may have shown that multiple running backs can have success, but he's also demonstrated that multiple running backs can suffer injuries. It certainly didn't work out so well in 2024.

I wouldn't disagree if you wanted to say that our RB staffing is arguably worse right now, but if CMC were to miss the start of the season, I would say our situations are roughly identical. To me, it seems really lucky that he remained so healthy last year.

I don't think you could have, or will be able to, make it without CMC, and Shanahan is likely to then run out of options, and hit the under, likely by a decent margin.

 

[Trackhawk]

I'll go out on a limb and say that if CMC misses 50% or more games next year, Niners will win 7 games or less. Wonder if there is a way to parlay that

 

[Torc]

Current Seahawks odds as per Pinnacle:

Over 10.5 wins -126
Under 10.5 wins +104

Super Bowl Champion +1220 (5th favourite).

NFC Champion +557 (2nd favourite).

NFC West Champion +205 (2nd favourite).

Sam Darnold Regular Season Passing Yards
Over 3699.5 yards -110
Under 3699.5 yards -110

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receiving Yards:
Over 1324.5 yards -113
Under 1324.5 yards -107

Jadarian Price Regular Season Rushing Yards:
Over 749.5 yards -110
Under 749.5 yards -110

Of all of the individual numbers, I can easily believe that JSN will not have the numbers he had last year. But that will be because Shaheed and the TEs are utilized a lot more, and the numbers will balance out to reflect that.

I don't intend any shade on JSN whatsoever, but his stats indicate a lack of other receiving talent. (Yes, Kupp is awesome, but he's a role player at this stage of his career.) Had Horton not gotten injured, I think some of JSN's catches would have gone to him. Hopefully the fact that Shaheed is working with Darnold for the offseason will help there too.