MontanaHawk05
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So long-term .NET denizens might remember that, many years ago, I used my 10,000th post on this forum to predict the Seahawks' eventual 2013 Super Bowl win before the season began. I even got the opponent right. My one claim to fame around here.
Today, as fate would have it, I have come to my 20,000th post on the eve of another Lombardi tumble for the great Emerald City football team. How will I use this opportunity? To predict the outcome, of course.
On paper, I agree with everyone that the Seahawks are the better team, and truthfully I can't quite figure out why anyone would think otherwise. If it weren't true, I'd be the first to be all over it. Instead, I offer this:
This is DVOA ranking plotted against DVOA percentage. Only the teams played by NE this year are labeled, along with NE and SEA themselves. Remember, negative is good in DVOA world.
The point of that plot is multipurpose.
1) It demonstrates just how far ahead of the pack Seattle's defense is. We're not just the best in the league, we're the best by a loooong shot.
2) It shows where NE really lands amongst the pack when adjusted for opponent quality (as DVOA does). They're roughly on par with Carolina and Miami, el oh el.
3) It identifies the average DVOA of the defenses faced by the Patriots (red line) and the Seahawks (blue line). This tells me that Seattle's offense faced a tougher test in the regular season. This is backed up in multiple systems that show Seattle's strength of schedule exceeding New England's, and not just by a little bit. I can't just ignore that.
You might point out that New England did face one very solid defense - Houston - and did it in the postseason. This is true. They scored 21 points on the Texans. The other 7 points from the Pats' 28-16 victory were scored by their defense on a pick-six. So the accomplishment was...there. But this is a Patriots team with a definite "getting hot at the right time" feel, and that is not to be discounted.
You might also point out that New England has legitimate defensive studs. I like Christian Gonzalez. I find it ominous that DT Milton Williams, with 53 pressures this season and 17 of them just in the playoffs, is lined up across from Anthony Bradford. Very ominous.
But Seattle has an entire team of defensive studs. More importantly, it's a team that believes in each other, plays 60 minutes, and steps up when the man in front of them goes down.
The Patriots' offensive line is improved from '24, but overrated. They allowed something like 47 sacks this year. This is actually quite fortuitous, because I'm seeing evidence that our defensive line is tiring out this late in the season. They're old, after all. In their thirties besides Byron Murphy. The Rams have a superlative OL, better than the Patriots, and this no doubt played a role in the lack of defensive pressure with the front four. There's also the consideration of needing to contain Maye when he runs. Williams and Demarcus are fairly spry and unrelenting for their age, but Maye is here for a reason. I'm confident I'm not saying anything that Mike and Durde don't already know. Guys like Uchenna Nwosu and Thomas Drake will need a strong game.
Everything is pointing the Seahawks' way, though. Better corners than Gonzalez have tried to contain JSN and failed. Darnold has a Swiss army knife of receivers - the #1 receiver, a zone maestro in Cooper Kupp, a downfield threat in Rashid Shaheed, an underrated tight end, and a legit dual threat RB who's been getting used increasingly in a receiving role. We're looking at the best Seattle OL in years, well-versed and firing on all cylinders in the run game, and I can say that even with Bradford and Sundell determined to sabotage every third down. And then Darnold himself, who by this point has pretty much passed every possible test you could throw at him. I was expecting him to game-manager his way past the Rams if he won. Instead, he took over the game. I certainly didn't expect him to come back from 30-14. He did. 3rd down offense AND defense have improved over the postseason, leaving confidence that the right guys will make plays when necessary, even if they bend first.
In other words, this is a team that can win whatever way it needs to.
So...do I predict a win for the Seahawks?
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Hell no. I've picked against them for eight straight weeks and been proven wrong every time, you think I'm gonna stop now? 23-20 Patriots.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!
Today, as fate would have it, I have come to my 20,000th post on the eve of another Lombardi tumble for the great Emerald City football team. How will I use this opportunity? To predict the outcome, of course.
On paper, I agree with everyone that the Seahawks are the better team, and truthfully I can't quite figure out why anyone would think otherwise. If it weren't true, I'd be the first to be all over it. Instead, I offer this:
This is DVOA ranking plotted against DVOA percentage. Only the teams played by NE this year are labeled, along with NE and SEA themselves. Remember, negative is good in DVOA world.
The point of that plot is multipurpose.
1) It demonstrates just how far ahead of the pack Seattle's defense is. We're not just the best in the league, we're the best by a loooong shot.
2) It shows where NE really lands amongst the pack when adjusted for opponent quality (as DVOA does). They're roughly on par with Carolina and Miami, el oh el.
3) It identifies the average DVOA of the defenses faced by the Patriots (red line) and the Seahawks (blue line). This tells me that Seattle's offense faced a tougher test in the regular season. This is backed up in multiple systems that show Seattle's strength of schedule exceeding New England's, and not just by a little bit. I can't just ignore that.
You might point out that New England did face one very solid defense - Houston - and did it in the postseason. This is true. They scored 21 points on the Texans. The other 7 points from the Pats' 28-16 victory were scored by their defense on a pick-six. So the accomplishment was...there. But this is a Patriots team with a definite "getting hot at the right time" feel, and that is not to be discounted.
You might also point out that New England has legitimate defensive studs. I like Christian Gonzalez. I find it ominous that DT Milton Williams, with 53 pressures this season and 17 of them just in the playoffs, is lined up across from Anthony Bradford. Very ominous.
But Seattle has an entire team of defensive studs. More importantly, it's a team that believes in each other, plays 60 minutes, and steps up when the man in front of them goes down.
The Patriots' offensive line is improved from '24, but overrated. They allowed something like 47 sacks this year. This is actually quite fortuitous, because I'm seeing evidence that our defensive line is tiring out this late in the season. They're old, after all. In their thirties besides Byron Murphy. The Rams have a superlative OL, better than the Patriots, and this no doubt played a role in the lack of defensive pressure with the front four. There's also the consideration of needing to contain Maye when he runs. Williams and Demarcus are fairly spry and unrelenting for their age, but Maye is here for a reason. I'm confident I'm not saying anything that Mike and Durde don't already know. Guys like Uchenna Nwosu and Thomas Drake will need a strong game.
Everything is pointing the Seahawks' way, though. Better corners than Gonzalez have tried to contain JSN and failed. Darnold has a Swiss army knife of receivers - the #1 receiver, a zone maestro in Cooper Kupp, a downfield threat in Rashid Shaheed, an underrated tight end, and a legit dual threat RB who's been getting used increasingly in a receiving role. We're looking at the best Seattle OL in years, well-versed and firing on all cylinders in the run game, and I can say that even with Bradford and Sundell determined to sabotage every third down. And then Darnold himself, who by this point has pretty much passed every possible test you could throw at him. I was expecting him to game-manager his way past the Rams if he won. Instead, he took over the game. I certainly didn't expect him to come back from 30-14. He did. 3rd down offense AND defense have improved over the postseason, leaving confidence that the right guys will make plays when necessary, even if they bend first.
In other words, this is a team that can win whatever way it needs to.
So...do I predict a win for the Seahawks?
...................
...................
...................
...................
...................
...................
...................
...................
Hell no. I've picked against them for eight straight weeks and been proven wrong every time, you think I'm gonna stop now? 23-20 Patriots.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!
