You have a point if you said he is worth a 2nd but no, you said he is worth a 4th. You are more way off than the Bengals
And yes the Browns made a bad trade but that’s what it costed to get him at the time. They paid the asking price.
It’s incredible fans on message boards think they know more about value than the NFL people who are actually making the trades
The value of the player at the time of the trade is what team paid for. It may go up or down later but that’s his value at that time
...and it was a late 4th!
My valuation is based on what the money the Bengals will pay Lawrence would have got them in free agency. $28-30M gets them a player of similar value and they still have their pick. How much better is Lawrence vs what they could have done?
Trade valuations are extremely subjective. the Seahawks get a 3rd for Metcalf, (who was also paid $30M). The Rams got a 3rd for CB Ramsey a few years back. The Cowboys got a 6th for WR Cooper. The Rams couldn't even get a conditional 7th for Kupp with a $15M contract, and then another team paid Kupp $17.5M as a FA.
Gambling has taught me a lot about risk management. Analysis is cold-blooded. I'm willing to bet either side of a coin flip at +120 and i'm willing to lay bets on either outcome at -120. I'd rather have a 3rd round rookie for 4 years and plenty of leftover FA cash than 2 years of Lawrence. I'm happy with that valuation. The Bengals are making a bad bet. I won't wish them luck.
Slightly off-topic but I wouldn't have given up about 740 Draft chart points for Trent McDuffie, and I certainly wouldn't have signed him to a contract with 2-year rolling guarantees. I thought he was worth around 450 points.