2023 vs 2024 defensive DVOA

[Ozzy]

For all the talk the defense hasn’t gotten better at all moving on from Pete to Mike. Last year under Pete we were 28th in defensive DVOA, this year? 18th and we appear to be trending towards getting better. Maybe we’re being a little hard on Macdonald?

 

[jammerhawk]

I’d agree, but it’s still early.

it’s damn hard to be a new HC in the NFL. I believe he will be a very good NFL HC but patience and time will be needed.

 

[keasley45]

The criticism of Macdonald is more based on the lack of discipline and trend toward boneheaded procedural penalties.
Well coached teams dont typically beat themselves. And i am not saying Mac isnt a good coach. Im just not sold on all of his coordinators and assistants. He was assembming his staff from the best candidates available after he was announced.

So by my estimation, he cant possibly have the best qualified staff. And again, in my opinion, it shows.

 

[Ozzy]

The criticism of Macdonald is more based on the lack of discipline and trend toward boneheaded procedural penalties.
Well coached teams dont typically beat themselves. And i am not saying Mac isnt a good coach. Im just not sold on all of his coordinators and assistants. He was assembming his staff from the best candidates available after he was announced.

So by my estimation, he cant possibly have the best qualified staff. And again, in my opinion, it shows.

Even with major improvement over last year? I get the trepidation but I also want to see if they can stack success off of last week and move in the right direction.

 

[kidhawk]

Even with major improvement over last year? I get the trepidation but I also want to see if they can stack success off of last week and move in the right direction.

They say numbers don’t lie but when it comes to football statistics they often do. We have played a lot of subpar teams so far this season and that is bound to stack the stats a little in favor of our current team.

With that said I’m not here to call on Macdonald to be fired or even in the hot seat. We are pretty much where I expected us to be right now. I believe that we can move forward with Macdonald and become contenders. I don’t want him to make any changes on the staff this year but I’d expect if we aren’t a much more cohesive team in every facet that we would make changes early in the off season.

 

[keasley45]

Even with major improvement over last year? I get the trepidation but I also want to see if they can stack success off of last week and move in the right direction.

I'm just not sold on the coordinators. Never was, honestly, and the results on the field have done nothing to change my mind. Last year was bad as well.

I credit the better DVOA to Mike, 100%. But the rest? Knowing the dude's leadership style, he HAS to delegate a good bit of the 'teaching' and leading to his subs. They were already handicapped a bit given they are learning him and his system just as the players are. But they also to a man have zero experience doing their respective jobs. Thinking that they are a bit over their skis trying to keep up at their new posts, in a new scheme, seeing things real-time for the first time and struggling is, in my opinion, logical. If Mike had tried and true Ocs and DCs / position coaches working alongside him I'm 100% positive the results on the field would be better.

 

[Shane Falco]

I feel like they improved drastically in that Rams game despite giving it up there at the end. And Woolen / Hankins shitting the bed. I want to see similar solid performance against the 49ers after the bye. I think that will kind of let us know if we're really seeing growth or not.

 

[Ozzy]

I'm just not sold on the coordinators. Never was, honestly, and the results on the field have done nothing to change my mind. Last year was bad as well.

I credit the better DVOA to Mike, 100%. But the rest? Knowing the dude's leadership style, he HAS to delegate a good bit of the 'teaching' and leading to his subs. They were already handicapped a bit given they are learning him and his system just as the players are. But they also to a man have zero experience doing their respective jobs. Thinking that they are a bit over their skis trying to keep up at their new posts, in a new scheme, seeing things real-time for the first time and struggling is, in my opinion, logical. If Mike had tried and true Ocs and DCs / position coaches working alongside him I'm 100% positive the results on the field would be better.

It's fair. I'm sure we're both hoping he proves us wrong moving forward and they all surprise everyone. We shall see!

 

[Natethegreat]

It's too early to be judging it. He needs at least one off-season to address spots on D that need fixed after putting his system in place. I would argue he should get at least 2 before we make conclusions on what he can do.

 

[knownone]

This is actually very easy to explain. Dominant early performances are still affecting DVOA. I don't have access to the full DVOA menu. But if you look at other metrics after week three, it shows the defense performing significantly worse than last season—nearly double the EPA/play and a 5% higher success rate. So, both on paper and on the field, the last 6 weeks haven't looked much different than last season.

That said, this defense should be better than last season. They have more talent.

 

[Ozzy]

This is actually very easy to explain. Dominant early performances are still affecting DVOA. I don't have access to the full DVOA menu. But if you look at other metrics after week three, it shows the defense performing significantly worse than last season—nearly double the EPA/play and a 5% higher success rate. So, both on paper and on the field, the last 6 weeks haven't looked much different than last season.

That said, this defense should be better than last season. They have more talent.

But this past week I’m guessing the numbers came back up.

I’m also not sure how much significantly worse you can get than 28th which is what they were last year? Unless defenses as a whole are down.

I do think you’re partly right for sure, the first 3 weeks help. The middle bad stretch was bad and now hopefully they can build from last week. I really don’t think they end up in that 28 spot though especially if they turned a corner which it appears they have. My gut says they end up in the 15 range.

 

[knownone]

But this past week I’m guessing the numbers came back up.

I’m also not sure how much significantly worse you can get than 28th which is what they were last year? Unless defenses as a whole are down.

I do think you’re partly right for sure, the first 3 weeks help. The middle bad stretch was bad and now hopefully they can build from last week. I really don’t think they end up in that 28 spot though especially if they turned a corner which it appears they have. My gut says they end up in the 15 range.

Since week 3, they are 30th in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate. That includes the Rams game. It's a relatively small sample (6 games), but a 5% increase in SR is significant. It's the difference between the league's #1 offense and the 14th-ranked offense.

15 sounds about right. My gut feeling was somewhere between 10 and 20 in the offseason.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

Annoying thing about DVOA is teams can pad the stat with huge performances in a few games. Case in point, the Saints were a top 5 team overall this year until week 5 or 6 or so just because of their blowout wins to start the year. Moreover, we still had a top 10 defense even after the Lions game. That stretch is still carrying our defensive DVOA into the top 20 (for now).

 

[Seahawks fan]

I agree some fans are losing their minds with all the fire Schneider, fire Grubb and I've also seen/heard fans say MacDonald needs to go which is craziness... This is only a 9 game sample of these men together, I mean if you look back after Pete's first 9 games as the HC of seattle he was in the same boat basically and just imagine if he were fired just after 9 games.... Slowdown fan base let them work for a few years before jumping the gun..

 

[Rat]

I agree some fans are losing their minds with all the fire Schneider, fire Grubb and I've also seen/heard fans say MacDonald needs to go which is craziness... This is only a 9 game sample of these men together, I mean if you look back after Pete's first 9 games as the HC of seattle he was in the same boat basically and just imagine if he were fired just after 9 games.... Slowdown fan base let them work for a few years before jumping the gun..

Pete took over a worse team which had won nine games over the previous two seasons combined (the same amount of wins we had last season alone) and was co-spearheading a complete roster overhaul with a rookie GM. I'm not calling for Mac to be fired, but they really weren't all that similar.

You mention Grubb though. We actually did replace the OC after Pete's first season.

 

[Seahawks fan]

Pete took over a worse team which had won nine games over the previous two seasons combined (the same amount of wins we had last season alone) and was co-spearheading a complete roster overhaul with a rookie GM. I'm not calling for Mac to be fired, but they really weren't all that similar.

You mention Grubb though. We actually did replace the OC after Pete's first season.

I think you missed my point and I might not have made it clear (so, my bad)... my point was Pete's last 3 years with this team was 7-9, 9-8, 9-8 and only made the playoffs once in those 3 seasons and in reality Mike is on pace for 7-9 wins this year, so with the same team (mostly) Mike in his first year is on pace for what Pete did the 3 previous years, and I'm still dumbfounded most fans are calling for change at this point... I mean with all do respect to Pete, but if Pete couldn't win with this team he helped build how can Mike?.. our personal isn't exactly the personal Mike needs for this team to play consistent it's going to be a hard couple of years and fans need to realize that..

 

[Maelstrom787]

Pete took over a worse team which had won nine games over the previous two seasons combined (the same amount of wins we had last season alone) and was co-spearheading a complete roster overhaul with a rookie GM. I'm not calling for Mac to be fired, but they really weren't all that similar.

You mention Grubb though. We actually did replace the OC after Pete's first season.

Yeah, Grubb shouldn't be given much of a leash if this doesn't turn around.

Crucial part of a new regime is cutting bait with what isn't showing signs of promise. Grubb is showing very little promise. Could doom Mac's tenure.

Bates is the perfect example. We knew it wasn't working.

 

[MORGULON]

For all the talk the defense hasn’t gotten better at all moving on from Pete to Mike. Last year under Pete we were 28th in defensive DVOA, this year? 18th and we appear to be trending towards getting better. Maybe we’re being a little hard on Macdonald?

100%

For all the chicken littles, take a deep breath. I can see MM making improvements
and the offense will come around in time. It might just take more than 1 season to get there. I'm in it for the long haul.