Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

[pittpnthrs]

When he's on, he can be damn good. We need him, he's what we have. Hopefully, we don't see Howell all season. That would mean a very good season by Geno.
We also don't know what kind of a hook Coach Mike will have w/the QB.

You are absolutely right. He's not terrible. That's not my indication, it's just I don't think he's good enough to advance a team in the post season.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

That's QB in the NFL. People either like and/or believe in you, or they flat out don't. I'm still on the fence about Geno, and it's been 2 years. Hoping he takes that next step in 2024.

 

[pittpnthrs]

How many QBs, including injuries and dropouts, are selected for the Pro Bowl? What fraction of the league do they represent? That would put Geno in the 70th percentile this year (above average). Now, put that number into the context of my comment (which you've taken out of context). In other words, how many QBs fall through the cracks, like Geno, and return to go to back-to-back pro bowls? Even if the Pro Bowl is a joke, Geno is an exception.

Here's something to consider: Baker Mayfield had a good season last year.

Here's my problem with everything concerning QB's in the present NFL. I just don't think there's a lot of good ones in the league right now which causes average to better than average QB's to seem better than they are numbers wise. Just look at the QB's in the NFC -

Stafford, Geno, Murray, Purdy, Hurts, Prescott, Jones, Goff, Love, Cousins, Carr, Mayfield, and then a bunch of unproven rookies along with Bryce Young who didn't play enough to even register.

That list is a mess. Out of the entire list I think Stafford is good. Prescott has his moments but chokes practically everytime. Hurts is good and will grow up. Love seems good and might be the real deal. Honestly, i'm reaching even for those guys. Goff, Carr, Mayfield, Smith, Cousins,,,,,,all average in my eyes.

Making the pro bowl in the NFC isn't a daunting task. The league is a serious void of talent at the QB position with a few exceptions over all to be honest.

 

[Shane Falco]

Content? Def. not. But it could be a heck of a lot worse.

You're not content with him as a bridge QB until they can do better? Don't know how anyone cannot be. What the hell else are they gonna do.

 

[knownone]

Here's my problem with everything concerning QB's in the present NFL. I just don't think there's a lot of good ones in the league right now which causes average to better than average QB's to seem better than they are numbers wise. Just look at the QB's in the NFC -

Stafford, Geno, Murray, Purdy, Hurts, Prescott, Jones, Goff, Love, Cousins, Carr, Mayfield, and then a bunch of unproven rookies along with Bryce Young who didn't play enough to even register.

That list is a mess. Out of the entire list I think Stafford is good. Prescott has his moments but chokes practically everytime. Hurts is good and will grow up. Love seems good and might be the real deal. Honestly, i'm reaching even for those guys. Goff, Carr, Mayfield, Smith, Cousins,,,,,,all average in my eyes.

Making the pro bowl in the NFC isn't a daunting task. The league is a serious void of talent at the QB position with a few exceptions over all to be honest.

That's fine. But your argument here is essentially that Geno's performance relative to his peers doesn't matter because you don't think his peers are good.

Now, is making the Pro Bowl in the NFC a daunting task? We can quantify this. On average, including injuries and dropouts, 6 NFC quarterbacks technically make the Pro Bowl. That means the odds of making it in a given year are 6/16, roughly 38%, which puts the probability of making back-to-back Pro Bowls at 14%. That seems pretty daunting.

 

[BlueTalon]

Uh... he has started 66 of 163 career games. And he has a losing record in those games started. He has had a singular above average season. Those are facts and absolutely not my opinion. Don't get me wrong. I like the guy. I think he is good to be here but to think he is our answer is just silly. Now, IMO we are at best a Wildcard team for the next few seasons with him as the starter.

That's the sort of thing I think of as a "bucket o' stats." It's basically meaningless without context. Context is everything.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

You're not content with him as a bridge QB until they can do better? Don't know how anyone cannot be. What the hell else are they gonna do.

If you're content, that's great. I'll go ahead and have my own expectations. And NO, I'm NOT content with Geno f'ing Smith as the QB.

He is what we have, but content with average? No, I'm not at all. I'm not required to be stoked about the QB.

 

[pittpnthrs]

That's fine. But your argument here is essentially that Geno's performance relative to his peers doesn't matter because you don't think his peers are good.

Now, is making the Pro Bowl in the NFC a daunting task? We can quantify this. On average, including injuries and dropouts, 6 NFC quarterbacks technically make the Pro Bowl. That means the odds of making it in a given year are 6/16, roughly 38%, which puts the probability of making back-to-back Pro Bowls at 14%. That seems pretty daunting.

Somewhat. My argument also includes process of elimination in which teams with these average QB's that are lucky enough to make the post season, will eventually run into the teams with the better QBs making winning pretty hard. Seattle isnt one of the teams with the better QB.

Why would there be a 50% drop rate due to back to back seasons? There isnt that kind of turnaround in the league. Players have just as good a chance every season. Either you make it or you dont.

 

[pittpnthrs]

You're not content with him as a bridge QB until they can do better? Don't know how anyone cannot be. What the hell else are they gonna do.

Yeah i'm not content either. This so called bridge QB is going to be going on for four years or more with still no plan in place yet for that QBotF. (Don't make me laugh mentioning Sam Howell).

 

[Double Tribble]

You're not content with him as a bridge QB until they can do better? Don't know how anyone cannot be. What the hell else are they gonna do.

They need to stop screwing around and do something they haven't done in over 30 years. Draft a qb in the 1st round.

 

[McGruff]

To be fair they haven’t had many chances to get a good one.

 

[Shane Falco]

My intention wasn't to get all anyone all riled up. Agree they need to take shots at QB's in the draft and not just talk about.

My point was just pretty much saying, it is what is, Geno is a bridge QB until they get that QBOTF and for that purporse he's good enough. Not saying I am content with the QB situation. Content that he is nothing more than a bridge, and there is nothing more they can do right now. They made their bed.

You know, a "bridge" QB is by definition is acknowledging that he is not the long term answer.

 

[ZagHawk]

I'd like to see a stat of average time QB had to throw the ball before receiving pressure. Average time QB held on to ball before throwing/running. etc.

 

[knownone]

Why would there be a 50% drop rate due to back to back seasons? There isnt that kind of turnaround in the league. Players have just as good a chance every season. Either you make it or you dont.

You mean a 63% drop.

Simple mathematics. Each season is an independent event; achieving the same outcome two years in a row is statistically less likely. To find the probability of a QB making back-to-back pro bowls, you'd multiply the probability of each independent event. P(B2B) = P(event_1) * P(event_2).

So, if the probability of making the Pro Bowl in one season is 0.38, then: 0.38 * 0.38 = 0.14

 

[hawkfan68]

You mean a 63% drop.

Simple mathematics. Each season is an independent event; achieving the same outcome two years in a row is statistically less likely. To find the probability of a QB making back-to-back pro bowls, you'd multiply the probability of each independent event. P(B2B) = P(event_1) * P(event_2).

So, if the probability of making the Pro Bowl in one season is 0.38, then: 0.38 * 0.38 = 0.14

Smith deserved to be in the pro bowl in 2022 season but I don't believe he deserved to be there last season.

 

[Ozzy]

This whole thing is based on perception. The perceptions of the people who were dazzled by Russell Wilson were never going to accept the next QB unless he was young enough for them to allow for his mistakes or if he was able to be the driving force in us getting to the NFC Championship game. Interestingly these Wilson groupies were always talking down Pete Carroll as being the problem. Also interestingly, it wasn't Pete Carroll holding back Geno or our offense the past two seasons, it was Geno who was the problem.

For those who recognized the holes in Russell Wilson's game, Geno is what they have been looking for. Someone who isn't live or die by something that isn't sustainable. Their perception is that we can win this type of QB and we are paying a pretty reasonable price for him.

Then there is the perception that any of our previous Carroll teams were as bad as the abomination we were subjected to last season. Which is completely erroneous. Both of our coordinators were figured out the previous season by the league and stupidly retained by Pete Carroll. We came out with minor variations to start 2023, but it did not last past our bye. The league laughed at our schemes and we fell off for the most part.

Perception is funny and the fact that so many simply stick to theirs without allowing for others to even budge them is laughable.

This works both ways though. It feels like a lot of people are forcing their opinion of Smith because they hated Russ so much that they overrate Geno a little bit. I think this is much more common than the crowd who loves Wilson and that makes them underrate Geno. How many people speak highly of Russ in here? Not many.

Not saying you’re wrong but that it works both ways.

Look Geno is underrated by some and overrated by others. He has to do better than 20 touchdowns this year if we’re going to make a playoff run. I think he would say the same thing.

 

[Ozzy]

He was middle of the pack last season.. top 10 the previous season. Pretty good for a bridge QB, which I view him as because of his age. But I am content with that.

I think this is reasonable. The only scenario I’m not is if they had a chance at Richardson and didn’t and the dude becomes a star. I really wanted him.

 

[MORGULON]

Geno Smith is a good QB. I don't know why a lot of people think you have to draft one in the top 10 picks of the first round to have a shot. I'm happy he's the QB and if they get a better one down the road, I'm cool with that as well.

I'd take Geno over most QBs in the league .

 

[IndyHawk]

My intention wasn't to get all anyone all riled up. Agree they need to take shots at QB's in the draft and not just talk about.

My point was just pretty much saying, it is what is, Geno is a bridge QB until they get that QBOTF and for that purporse he's good enough. Not saying I am content with the QB situation. Content that he is nothing more than a bridge, and there is nothing more they can do right now. They made their bed.

You know, a "bridge" QB is by definition is acknowledging that he is not the long term answer.

How do you know the QBOTF isn't going to just be bridge QBs the whole way?

 

[McGruff]

I think this is reasonable. The only scenario I’m not is if they had a chance at Richardson and didn’t and the dude becomes a star. I really wanted him.

We didn’t have a chance at Richardson though