Hello LTH,
Found myself being very interested in your thread here! Only the internet wasn't yielding me the data needed to form a solid opinion on the Hawk's 3rd Down Conversion troubles. When I did find some of what that information, I didn't immediately understand the data that I did find. Here's what I have collected for you so far...
This comes from Seahawk's.com
View attachment 60900
My read into this is:
- Total First Downs, Hawks 68, Opponents 75. Keep in mind, this stat is the overall 1st Downs, and does not specifically reflect the 3rd Down Conversion Rate, but obviously the opponents are collecting more 1st Downs then our Hawks are.
- Rushing/Passing/Penalty, Hawks 20 rushes & 39 passes, Opponents 16 rushes & 51 passes. Row Two, shows that the Hawk's passing attack is gaining more 1st Downs than the running game is, and by about a 2 to 1 margin. For a team that wants to be closer to 50% run & 50% pass, this seems to be out of kilter, so I'll agree with those above that point to the damaged offensive line. Also, see those opponent's stats, that's not normal; it's what happens when we have the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, and we do...
- Third Down Conversions made, Row Three (not highlighted). That's the 10/33 stat. Having only 33 conversion attempts over a span of 3 games isn't really a very big sample size, but even if it was 66 conversion attempts, I still don't believe the overall success % would change very much.
- Me... I'm tired of watching this offense throw the ball on every single Third & Three Yards To Go play. As much as I like RG Phil Haynes as a backup offensive lineman, I like the idea of 332 LB Rookie RG Anthony Bradford even better!
- Your turn... I'd like to know what do you read into it?
ProFootballReference.com gives us the following
View attachment 60901
Here's what I am seeing:
- Once again, other than that top box, this screen also does not provide us with just the 3rd Down Conversion information desired. The next two boxes are cumulative; meaning those conversations could have been made on 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down, or 4th down.
- Team Conversions Box, Third Down Attempts 33, Third Down Conversions 10, Third Down Percentage 30.3%. We all know that championship teams end up being much closer to 50% than 30%. That's the frustrating part here!
- Passing Box, this looks like a very suspicious culprit to me. Notice that Geno Smith has a Cmp% of 68.9 percent, but seven stats over to the right, he only holds a Succ% of 54.6 when trying to convert. That's a huge drop off.
- Rushing & Receiving Box, with an overall Succ% of 52.6 percent, this looks like another very suspicious culprit to me, as that rushing Succ% of 52.6 percent is a lot higher than the team's overall all 3rd Down Conversion Rate of only 30.3 percent.
- Me... I'm coming to the same former conclusion that this team is passing too much on Third Down with 3 or fewer yards to go for the 1st Down Conversion. They do have a rushing average of 4.1 yards per carry overall, with Kenneth Walker averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and Zack Charbonnet averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Other than possibly within the Red Zone, I'm not seeing the opposing teams loading the box against our run game on 3rd and 3 yards or less.
- Your turn again... Maybe you see something here that I completely whiffed on?
A few other last second thoughts I have to add:
- JSN seemed to be running deeper & more productive routes in the pre-season. That was before both he and the offensive line were hit by injuries. Jet sweeps don't enthuse me much. JSN is not Dee Eskridge.
- Will Dissly is also banged up, and I do regard him as being part of the 3rd Down Conversion Rate solution.
- Hawk's 31st ranked Defense needs to get off the field on 3rd downs. That would allow our Offense to practice their own trade more often than they currently have been. Time of Posession has been just as big a problem for this team!
- Looks like LT Charles Cross will be out again. I like Forsythe in the running game, but can we get Peters in at LT as well, maybe run some 3 Offensive Tackle sets???
As stated, I wish more 3rd down information was available on the free sites. Those with access to the premium stat sites might very well come upwith better explanations than what I have outlined here. I'd be interested to see some of it.