2-5 Playoff Hopes.

[bigskydoc]

Coming into week 8, the Denver Broncos sit at 2-5. The linked article is about the Browns, who are also 2-5.

Since 1990, 144 teams have started 2-5. Of the latter, only eight have made the playoffs.

I went and looked at the schedules of all the 2-5 teams who made the playoffs, and only one, the 2021 Washington Football Team, made the playoffs after going 2-6.

They actually went 2-7 before starting to build a few wins, and squeaked into the playoffs, at 7-9, as division champs, in an NFC East that featured a 6-10 Giants, a 6-10 Cowboys, and a 5-11 Eagles. They hosted the eventual SB winner Buccaneers in the first round.

Interestingly, the next year, in the wildcard round, Tampa Bay defeated the 9-8 Eagles, who started the season at 2-5, but secured the newly added 7th playoff berth.

The 8 teams, and their regular season record, are listed below.

21 Eagles 9-8
20 WFT 7-9
18 Colts 10-6
15 Chiefs 11-5
15 Texans 9-7
11 Broncos 8-8
02 Jets 9-7
95 Lions 10-6

In this year's AFC, it's likely going to take 10 wins to make the playoffs, if you aren't the AFC south champ.

I didn't go back to figure out how many of the 144, 2-5 teams would have made the playoffs in the current, expanded scenario, but it leaves Denver with, roughly, a 2% chance of making the playoffs this year. There is essentially no chance if they lose in London.

I'm feeling pretty good about my prediction that they won't make the playoffs this year, and that the Seahawks will make the playoffs before they do.

Browns’ season a wash? 2-5-0 teams that have made the playoffs

The cure is to start a run and stack up wins now

www.dawgsbynature.com

 

[RiverDog]

Two things have changed to make your research a little less relevant: The 17 game schedule and expanded playoffs.

However, the point of your argument still stands, that a 2-5 or 2-6 team faces very long odds of making the playoffs.

 

[bigskydoc]

Two things have changed to make your research a little less relevant: The 17 game schedule and expanded playoffs.

However, the point of your argument still stands, that a 2-5 or 2-6 team faces very long odds of making the playoffs.

I mentioned that, in the penultimate paragraph of my post.

 

[RiverDog]

I mentioned that, in the penultimate paragraph of my post.

Ahh, yes, I see now. So much for my comprehension when speed reading. My bad.

I don't imagine that the addition of the 17th game and expanding the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams amounts in a huge difference in the calculations, at least none that would change the premise of your argument.

 

[keasley45]

They get the Chiefs twice. That's 2 more losses. The Chargers will be healthier when they play them again... likely another L. Then the Titans, Ravens, Raiders, Cards... The only obviously winnable game left for them is the Jags and maybe the Panthers. Best case, 6-11.

 

[RiverDog]

They get the Chiefs twice. That's 2 more losses. The Chargers will be healthier when they play them again... likely another L. Then the Titans, Ravens, Raiders, Cards... The only obviously winnable game left for them is the Jags and maybe the Panthers. Best case, 6-11.

Yeah, Raiders-Colts-Jets-Jags was supposed to be the soft spot in their schedule.

But it's been a whacky year. As a rule, the contenders and pretenders have pretty much sorted themselves out by this time of year but this season, figuring out who the favorites are is still a crap shoot.

 

[toffee]

Broncos are listening to offers on their 'star' players, not sure how they are going to back a comeback when they traded away a few stars.

Tracking all your Denver Broncos trade deadline news and rumors

The Denver Broncos have five players on the trade block. Will they move any of them before the November 1st trade deadline? We’re tracking all of their news and rumors here.

www.milehighreport.com

 

[toffee]

And here, Broncos' franchise QB is telling his partners, the GM and HC not to trade away stars. This is one of the reasons Russ picked Broncos, CONTROL, Russ has control on personnel stuff, he is equal partners to both GM and HC:

https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/russell-wilson-bradley-chubb-jerry-jeudy-rumors

 

[RiverDog]

And here, Broncos' franchise QB is telling his partners, the GM and HC not to trade away stars. This is one of the reasons Russ picked Broncos, CONTROL, Russ has control on personnel stuff, he is equal partners to both GM and HC:

https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/russell-wilson-bradley-chubb-jerry-jeudy-rumors

I find myself in an odd position, defending Russell. I didn't take away from that quote that Russell was telling his GM and HC not to trade away stars. Here's exactly what he said:

"Obviously, he’s (Chubb) a captain and a leader. He’s a guy that I love to play with, and I hope he’s with us for a long time. He’s special. I love playing with this guy. His competitive nature is pretty spectacular; same thing with Jerry. This guy is getting better every day and the bond we have—I mentioned to him, one-on-one, don’t take offense to it. Just know it’s something people are always going to look for you if you’re a talented player. That’s the game. If anybody knows that—I’ve experienced that.”

Of course, he's going to say that he 'hopes' that Chubb's will be with them a long time. Every player, when asked to comment on a possible trade is likely to say the same thing. That doesn't mean that Russell's pressuring management not to trade them.

 

[toffee]

I find myself in an odd position, defending Russell. I didn't take away from that quote that Russell was telling his GM and HC not to trade away stars. Here's exactly what he said:

"Obviously, he’s (Chubb) a captain and a leader. He’s a guy that I love to play with, and I hope he’s with us for a long time. He’s special. I love playing with this guy. His competitive nature is pretty spectacular; same thing with Jerry. This guy is getting better every day and the bond we have—I mentioned to him, one-on-one, don’t take offense to it. Just know it’s something people are always going to look for you if you’re a talented player. That’s the game. If anybody knows that—I’ve experienced that.”

Of course, he's going to say that he 'hopes' that Chubb's will be with them a long time. Every player, when asked to comment on a possible trade is likely to say the same thing. That doesn't mean that Russell's pressuring management not to trade them.

Russ as a player didn't have to express an opinion, and if he must, as a player, could do it in house privately. Here, Russ was functioning as a partner, a celebrity, a HOF QB, a franchise savior, under those roles, he spoke, not in private, but via media, telling his GM and HC not to trade away those players.

Russ didn't have this level of "CONTROL" in Seattle, but he was granted that "Control", Let's see if Russ's wishes will be the GM/HC's command, or not.