Football Outsiders Team DVOA

[SoulfishHawk]

Def. some interesting stuff. Of course, there's really only one stat that matters: Wins and losses. Both NY teams are getting it done, regardless what it looks like and/or who they are playing.
Barely winning is still WINNING.

 

[JustTheTip]

This isn't really a fair comment on DVOA rankings. They aren't opinion, it's a formula.

Rather than being based on traditional metrics, it measures things on a per-play basis. It rates teams based on how successful they are per play compared to average, adjust it by the team they're facing, and then weight it based on how recent it was.

In the case of Dallas and Tampa Bay, both teams are being carried by their defense (and in Dallas's case, special teams) while both have below average offenses.

It's not a perfect system (none are!), and I've gone into issues I have with it before, but I do find it a more interesting metric than traditional power rankings.

It is a formula based on what some people think is important, so it is a fair comment.

 

[onanygivensunday]

It's much better than total yards allowed and total yards gained, which for many NFL fans are THE metrics they follow and use to defend their opinions on which teams are better than others.

 

[DarkVictory23]

It is a formula based on what some people think is important, so it is a fair comment.

Ok, but not really? If I list teams by yards, points, or any other stat, I'm ranking them by some metric that I'm choosing as important.

But subjectively choosing the metric is not the same as subjectively ordering the list. It is the exact opposite of saying 'just blindly trust my opinion, this team is better than this team' because they specifically state why it's ordered in the way it is.

Further, they write tons of stuff about their metric and system. They are stats focused site, the exact opposite of a 'just trust my opinion' approach.

Thanks, this sheds some light. I still do find it curious though. So the 2-5 Jaguars are 5.6% better than an average team per play, but the one loss Giants and Vikings are below that? Interesting

It tries to remove some of the 'luck' and tries to identify what is repeatable versus not. There is a lot of luck in fumble recovery, for example, or having your opponent miss a field goal that would typically be made.

 

[Own The West]

?

I actually have a soft spot for the guy, considering he was a part of our SB winning team.

I think it was 2020, when we played the 9ers the last game of the season. We won the game, division, and were 12-4; but the whole game they kept flashing back to DC Saleh and oohing and aahing over how great the 49er defense was. The 9ers were 6-10 that year and missed the playoffs...

Perhaps he is just the personification of the PNW snub. *shrug*

 

[UK_Seahawk]

I've read this whole thread and I'm none the wiser. I think its because when I see DVOA I automatically think of DVDA.

Please don't Google that work, if you don't know what it is.

 

[sdog1981]

Man the Bills are really on fire right now.

I've read this whole thread and I'm none the wiser. I think its because when I see DVOA I automatically think of DVDA.

Please don't Google that work, if you don't know what it is.

You are just trying to get people fired at work lol

 

[JustTheTip]

Man the Bills are really on fire right now.

You are just trying to get people fired at work lol

I googled it and got Delaware Valley Dance Academy. Seems innocent enough. Is it a front for an underaged whore house or something?

 

[hox]

 

[LeaveLynchAlone]

It's much better than total yards allowed and total yards gained, which for many NFL fans are THE metrics they follow and use to defend their opinions on which teams are better than others.

This is certainly an opinion about the validity of whether this metric is better than another.

 

[onanygivensunday]

This is certainly an opinion about the validity of whether this metric is better than another.

And your point is...?

 

[DarkVictory23]

Can you imagine if the Seahawks defensive turnaround is legit what this season looks like?

I'm trying to keep my expectations in check but I'll be damned if this team isn't making it hard.

 

[hox]

Can you imagine if the Seahawks defensive turnaround is legit what this season looks like?

I'm trying to keep my expectations in check but I'll be damned if this team isn't making it hard.

Yeah, Giants are 7th in offensive DVOA and rank top-10 both in passing and rushing. If the Seahawks can keep Jones and Barkley in check, we might be witnessing a young defense growing up fast.

 

[LeaveLynchAlone]

And your point is...?

Your presentation is stated as if DVOA is factually more valid or better than a different basis for ranking.

I was simply pointing out that you had an opinion and my opinion is that DVOA is not any different when looking at a random week as any other basis for ranking. Perhaps it is better, perhaps it is worse. Perhaps it is fun but not so important to the end result for any team.

The variables or too varied and the basis for DVOA will have implicit and even explicit biases just as any type ranking will. What the creators view as valid may be mistaken in the formulation. Once there's an error in the formula, there cannot be confidence in the result even if the results seem to correlate with the outcomes.

Unless the teams with the better DVOA always win versus those with lower DVOA, I look at it as something fun to talk about but not any different than any other form of ranking. It is fun to talk about but not proven to be definitive of anything.

 

[onanygivensunday]

I was simply pointing out that you had an opinion and my opinion is that DVOA is not any different when looking at a random week as any other basis for ranking.

Well, this is a sports team chat forum, which encourages people's opinions or why are we even here?

If you weren't aware, DVOA is not "looking at a random week". To be clear, it is a compilation of all of each team's snaps and is updated weekly to include the last game played.

 

[LeaveLynchAlone]

Well, this is a sports team chat forum, which encourages people's opinions or why are we even here?

If you weren't aware, DVOA is not "looking at a random week". To be clear, it is a compilation of all of each team's snaps and is updated weekly to include the last game played.

Where did I say don't share your opinion? Share away.

Well, this is a sports team chat forum, and I shared my opinion in response to your opinion. Is that difficult for you to understand?

I am aware enough about DVOA to not take it overly seriously.

Enjoy posting and I will enjoy responding to your posts if they move me.

 

[renofox]

I've been following FO for a long time.

DVOA has, historically, been the most accurate indicator of playoff seeding and success when compared to any of the MANY other advanced stats providers I keep an eye on.

When combined with the other advanced stats on their site, the accuracy of their analysis provides a far more accurate picture than anybody else out there.

 

[knownone]

Some people think DVOA is magic, but it's just another descriptive metric. Compare it to easier-to-visualize metrics, and you'll see it's not all that interesting. It's suitable for identifying potential under or overperformers, but it's actually less predictive than point differential. And when you compare the two, you get relatively similar outcomes. Everyone understands point differential, while DVOA has this magical quality because many people are mesmerized by math. Don't get me wrong, I like DVOA and use it all the time in discussions. But the reverence surrounding it is just bizarre.

Point Differential - DVOA
1. Buffalo - Buffalo
2. Philly - Philly
3. KC - Dallas
4. Cinci - KC
5. Dallas - Balt
6. Min - Cinci

 

[DarkVictory23]

Some people think DVOA is magic, but it's just another descriptive metric. Compare it to easier-to-visualize metrics, and you'll see it's not all that interesting. It's suitable for identifying potential under or overperformers, but it's actually less predictive than point differential. And when you compare the two, you get relatively similar outcomes. Everyone understands point differential, while DVOA has this magical quality because many people are mesmerized by math. Don't get me wrong, I like DVOA and use it all the time in discussions. But the reverence surrounding it is just bizarre.

Point Differential - DVOA
1. Buffalo - Buffalo
2. Philly - Philly
3. KC - Dallas
4. Cinci - KC
5. Dallas - Balt
6. Min - Cinci

Is it less predictive than point differential? I'm not saying I don't believe you but... ok, I am saying I don't believe you. (I am open to it, though). APoint differential is highly dependent on who you've already played while DVOA takes that into account.

That said, I don't think any metric or system is perfect and DVOA certainly isn't. But seeing how our team is doing in DVOA is just one more data point to consider in terms of evaluating our season and the current numbers (as well as the overall trend) are very positive.

 

[Jegpeg]

Of course I read it. I just happen to have no understanding of what these numbers represent. I mean you can't get much lower than 5.6% but yet at the same time there's over 20 teams lower?

Actually you can get much lower than 5.6%. The FO blurb say that means you have perfomed on average 5.6% better than an average NFL team. An average team scores 0 a worse than average team will have a negatie score, a really bad team will below -20%.