Can the Rams Run it Back?

[Boohman14]

The Rams are still the class of the NFC but I think they're beatable. I don't see them as dominate as much as the rest of the NFC has kind of aged out and seems to be mostly teams in quasi-rebuild.

 

[Welshers]

If you really think the Rams will run it back to the Superbowl this year, you don't understand that luck has a lot more to do with winning a ring than talent does. If the Rams are lucky, then sure. But it's all about luck, literally. I personally don't feel like the Rams will be as lucky this year as they were last year, and I'm looking forward to them being shut down over it. They got their ring last year, you can't expect a super team to win it back to back, the Patriots were an anomaly not the standard.

He didn't say "will", he asked if they "could". And in my opinion, they totally have the potential too. They are allowed to be the Yankees and sign anyone they want at any price...

 

[MyrtleHawk]

Oh, yeah then sure they /could/. But I don't think they /will/

 

[Mizak]

All I know is there might not be 3 NFC West teams making the playoffs. Maybe 2.

 

[RedAlice]

Well, he NFL clearly doesn't care that the Rams magically have all the players "under the cap"
So there is that.

It is your opinion that the NFL is helping the Rams stay under the cap?

 

[RedAlice]

Only team they need to worry about is Tampa. The nfc sucks really bad this year and the Rams are already in the conference final barring major injury. Afc is like how the nfc used to be.

AFC has gotten fun to watch.

Brady is back, and as a Tampa player without Belichick he has never beaten the Rams. Have to imagine it is a big goal of his now to do so.

 

[RedAlice]

With that Defense, Stafford, Kupp, and OBJ, and McVay calling the shots, I think Rams odds are better than most. This schitt is so unpredictable though, a couple key injuries, a few key players leave and loss of chemistry, etc. I haven't really paid much attention to LAR comings and goings. Rams seem to have drafted well with the picks they have, so I expect them to pick up a couple-three good players in the draft. Can Alice or someone post a quick summary of Rams player and key coaching staff adds and losses?

Yes. I will after the draft.

 

[RedAlice]

I think they have an up and down year of looking unbeatable at times and lost the next week. NFC is weak and there isn’t a team that wants to meet up with them come the post season. By default yes they have what it takes to win the NFC and once in the SB they have the chance even though some AFC teams would be have equal if not better talent across the board and younger. Scenario, vomiting one at that, what if its Denver and LA? Y’all rooting against LA or rooting against Russ and for Wagz?

Had not thought of that. Good question!

I am personally hoping that opening game is Broncos at SoFi stadium.

 

[RedAlice]

All depends on the injury bug. Same as every contender.

Absolutely on this. But, that is same for all teams.

When Rams played the Pats in the recent SB, AD was playing hurt and Kupp was out.

woulda coulda shoulda else.

 

[RedAlice]

They will be the first team to have played a 21-game season. So the injury bug will be a major factor.

They also lost glue guys in free agency. It is hard to replace players like Darius Williams, Robert Woods, Joseph-Day, and even Johnny Hekker are guys that you only notice when they are no longer on the team.

I think they will win 10-12 games and lose in the divisional round.

IMO, the biggest glue lost was Whitworth.

That man is simply awesome. His leadership will be missed.

 

[RedAlice]

They got the LA team their ferry tail championship... They won't get as much extra push from the powers that be this coming season. I doubt they even make the NFC championship game IMO.

honestly I expected more responses like this.

 

[RedAlice]

If you really think the Rams will run it back to the Superbowl this year, you don't understand that luck has a lot more to do with winning a ring than talent does. If the Rams are lucky, then sure. But it's all about luck, literally. I personally don't feel like the Rams will be as lucky this year as they were last year, and I'm looking forward to them being shut down over it. They got their ring last year, you can't expect a super team to win it back to back, the Patriots were an anomaly not the standard.

I understand enough to know that, yes, there is some luck involved. Things tip this way or that way.

Is the entire game based on luck? No. That is just stupid.

 

[RedAlice]

Watching the draft, and thinking about the NFCW.

Haven‘t changed my opinion on the Niners, seems that all depends on how Trey does.

AZ traded for Murray‘s little college friend and drafted a big TE. KK seems all in on making that work.

Hawks beefing up OL.

Gonna be fun …

 

[olyfan63]

I understand enough to know that, yes, there is some luck involved. Things tip this way or that way.

Is the entire game based on luck? No. That is just stupid.

Most luck comes in the form of key players not getting injured and thus not being out a ton of games.
The rest of the luck involves all the lucky plays those key players "randomly" make just by being on the field.

The 2005 & 2013 Seahawks were both "lucky" in this way of having fewer injuries than many other teams. The 2014 Seahawks had some "luck" the last couple weeks of the season that allowed them to get #1 seed and HFA in playoffs. That 2014 team was unbelievably "lucky" to beat GB in the NFCCG, surviving 4 picks of Russell Wilson. Sure "lucky" the LOB shut down Aaron Rodgers and that GB offense. Not so lucky in SB49 but that's it's own story.

How lucky were the 2021 Rams... Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd available and healthy, terrorizing offenses; Stafford and Kupp available and healthy and terrorizing defenses. And a FO that went out and got Ramsey and Stafford, through sheer "luck". And their "luck" that Cooper Kupp developed into the amazing player he's become. And don't forget their "luck" in bringing in a young coach in Sean McVay. Yup, those Rams just "lucked" their way into a Lombardi. So lucky that AD sacked Burrow that last play because if not he hits that Jamar Chase star WR for a TD. Except AD does that to everyone, every play. Can't forget Stafford's "lucky" throw to Kupp to get into FG range and beat the Bucs in the NFCCG. "Lucky" that Kupp found that opening and "lucky" that Stafford put the throw where Kupp could go get it.

Those Rams sure "lucked" their way into a Lombardi this year.. LOL.

P.S. I'm probably not crediting McVay enough for all the game plans he devised and was "lucky" they worked. I can't even name the Rams DC but he sure was lucky as hell also, consistently guessing right and consistently coming up with schemes that put his players in position such that they stuffed other team's offenses.

 

[RedAlice]

Most luck comes in the form of key players not getting injured and thus not being out a ton of games.
The rest of the luck involves all the lucky plays those key players "randomly" make just by being on the field.

The 2005 & 2013 Seahawks were both "lucky" in this way of having fewer injuries than many other teams. The 2014 Seahawks had some "luck" the last couple weeks of the season that allowed them to get #1 seed and HFA in playoffs. That 2014 team was unbelievably "lucky" to beat GB in the NFCCG, surviving 4 picks of Russell Wilson. Sure "lucky" the LOB shut down Aaron Rodgers and that GB offense. Not so lucky in SB49 but that's it's own story.

How lucky were the 2021 Rams... Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd available and healthy, terrorizing offenses; Stafford and Kupp available and healthy and terrorizing defenses. And a FO that went out and got Ramsey and Stafford, through sheer "luck". And their "luck" that Cooper Kupp developed into the amazing player he's become. And don't forget their "luck" in bringing in a young coach in Sean McVay. Yup, those Rams just "lucked" their way into a Lombardi. So lucky that AD sacked Burrow that last play because if not he hits that Jamar Chase star WR for a TD. Except AD does that to everyone, every play. Can't forget Stafford's "lucky" throw to Kupp to get into FG range and beat the Bucs in the NFCCG. "Lucky" that Kupp found that opening and "lucky" that Stafford put the throw where Kupp could go get it.

Those Rams sure "lucked" their way into a Lombardi this year.. LOL.

P.S. I'm probably not crediting McVay enough for all the game plans he devised and was "lucky" they worked. I can't even name the Rams DC but he sure was lucky as hell also, consistently guessing right and consistently coming up with schemes that put his players in position such that they stuffed other team's offenses.

So, it is your opinion that having healthy players is lucky?

ETA: the year the Hawks won the SB, they were the best team, IMO. Built by strong players, a strong strategy and a strong execution. Were they lucky in some things? yes, but luck alone is NOT why Hawks have a Lombardi. Thinking so, sells all the work the coaches and players did to god damn EARN that.

Same for the Rams for their two.

 

[JustTheTip]

So, it is your opinion that having healthy players is lucky?

ETA: the year the Hawks won the SB, they were the best team, IMO. Built by strong players, a strong strategy and a strong execution. Were they lucky in some things? yes, but luck alone is NOT why Hawks have a Lombardi. Thinking so, sells all the work the coaches and players did to god damn EARN that.

Same for the Rams for their two.

I think either you didn't read his post or you didn't understand it.

 

[sdog1981]

IMO, the biggest glue lost was Whitworth.

That man is simply awesome. His leadership will be missed.

Somehow I forgot Whitworth. That is a major glue guy.

 

[olyfan63]

So, it is your opinion that having healthy players is lucky?

ETA: the year the Hawks won the SB, they were the best team, IMO. Built by strong players, a strong strategy and a strong execution. Were they lucky in some things? yes, but luck alone is NOT why Hawks have a Lombardi. Thinking so, sells all the work the coaches and players did to god damn EARN that.

Same for the Rams for their two.

You didn't catch my subtle sarcasm? Luck = Preparation meets Opportunity. So yes, Stafford to Kupp was "Lucky" in that Stafford was prepared when he saw a cover 0 blitz by Tampa, and Kupp also recognized it, so Stafford was prepared to know where to go, and Kupp was prepared to know what Stafford would do, and they both executed, and the result was a game-winning field goal and a trip to the Super Bowl. Yes, the OL was prepared enough to delay the pass rush just enough for Stafford to get the throw off. Rams were "lucky" that Tampa (inexplicably?) gave them that opportunity with a cover-0 blitz, and they were prepared enough to make that huge, game-deciding play.

Do injuries and fielding a team of healthy players involve "luck"? That is the $100M question. Let's say that over the course of a season and the playoffs, that there is a definite element of training program design and medical/PT personnel skill that can make some teams perform better than others by virtue of having key players available for more games. Getting highly capable people in place in these areas would be overall organizational leadership competence more than luck.

In an individual game situation, luck can play a huge role. In SB49, Jeremy Lane picked off Tom Brady in the end zone and ran it back out, and got his ACL ruptured and his forearm shattered, in the 1st quarter. Brady & the Pats took advantage of Lane's replacement, Tharald Simon, targeting and torching him repeatedly. Bad luck? Not so fast. Idiot Pete Carroll for some reason left highly capable slot corner Marcus Burley inactive. If Burley is on the field, he covers Edelman and Amendola way better, and the Patriots don't make that 10 point comeback. Was "the pick" at the end of SB49 "bad luck?" I think it was more an outstanding play by two NE players and a result of a predictable Seahawks offense and of Russell Wilson's limitations. Too big a subject to explore further here.

Another individual "injury" (bad) "luck" game situation, in SBXL, Hawks Safety Marquand Manuel got injured in the 2nd quarter. His replacement was a man-off-the-street free agent, Etric Pruitt. Pittsburgh wasted no time in targeting him in the 2nd half, and getting 2 long TDs going at him. Was that "bad luck"? I'd say NO, it was a natural outcome of having tissue-paper-thin depth at a key position. Maybe it was bad luck from 1st stringer safety Ken Hamlin getting into a stupid bar fight and getting his skull fractured and breaking his hand earlier in the season. Even there, having better public misbehavior prevention and accountability practices in place at a team level could have helped. 20/20.

I suppose the point is there are a ton of ways large and small that teams can create and improve their own "luck". Kudos to the Rams organization, top to bottom, and especially the leadership of Sean McVay, for creating that little extra bit of luck that led to a Super Bowl championship.

 

[Ramfan128]

Of course we can, but odds are against it. I will say that I love that we took a different approach than the Bucs - Robinson for Woods, adding Wagner.

Summary of losses - I'll do playoffs and regular season because the rosters and performances were pretty different for a few key players:

Regular season - Whitworth, Corbett, Woods, Darious Williams, Sebastian Joseph-Day

Playoffs - Von, Whitworth, Corbett, OBJ, Williams


Von and OBJ came on very late in the regular season, but they weren't very impactful until the playoffs. To replicate our regular season success, to be frank - they're not needed. In fact, even with a more difficult schedule I'll probably predict 13 wins this year. Woods and SJD didn't play in the playoffs (SJD was back for the Super Bowl but didn't make much of an impact). Darious Williams was not good in the regular season but played much better in the playoffs.



Additions:

Cam Akers - losing him was a blow. He came back for the playoffs and looked pretty good - our run blocking was horrific all playoffs though, so tough to evaluate him. Major upgrade to our RB room.


Allen Robinson - will more than replace Woods, who aside from the Thursday night against Seattle, never quite clicked with Stafford. Upgrade.


Bobby Wagner - we have for some reason just ignored ILB for years, but the combo of Wagner and Ernest Jones should be one of the better in the league. Jones was a rookie last year and looked VERY good prior to getting hurt and missing some time.


Troy Hill - traded for him yesterday - he was an average player for us that we let go which is how we operate - get him back on the cheap. Can play with inside and outside and it's worth mentioning that his best season coincided with Ramsey and Williams best seasons, as well as the (statistically) best defense the Rams have ever had. His versatility helps to unlock Ramsey by allowing him to move around more.



In house replacements:

Noteboom (Whitworth) - we had to pay him because of his flawless performance against the Bucs. Definite downgrade from Whitworth, but is at least a league average LT who excels in pass pro. Run blocking has been a weakness for some time, so here's to hoping he works on that.


Robert Rochelle (Darious Williams) - Rochelle was a rookie last year and played well, but like Ernest Jones, injuries derailed his rookie season. Williams missed a few games last year and Rochelle was filling in nicely. He's got the length and athleticism to play outside. From that perspective, he's an upgrade. We kept Williams outside despite him being 5'9". Williams lackluster regular season performance last year likely makes this an upgrade overall, especially with Hill back in the mix at the third CB spot.

Justin Hollins (Von) - Hollins was actually the starter to begin the season and prior to trading for Von, we were near the top of the league in sacks. Hollins is the definition of a solid starter/role player in the NFL.



Open competitions:

RG - Coleman Shelton vs Bobby Evans vs Tremaine Anchrum vs Logan Bruss - based on McVays comments, Bruss has the inside track here despite being a rookie. The OL could be better worse or the same as last year, but injuries notwithstanding, I think it will border on a top ten unit as it usually has under McVay.

S - Nick Scott vs Taylor Rapp - most Rams fans have already declared Scott the winner. Between picking off Brady and blowing up our boogeyman (Deebo) in the playoffs last year, he won a lot of us over. I am also starting to think we have a deal with Mathieu ready to go and are waiting until it doesn't impact the comp formula, but we'll see on that one.





Summary - in McVays post draft press conference he mentioned wanting to get more depth for the OL and secondary. The secondary being the key thing here - we were forced to play Eric Waddle and David Long in the Super Bowl. We will be better at both spots. On paper you would think the loss of Williams would make the secondary worse, but we added three CBs yesterday between Hill and the draft, so the added depth, IMO, offsets that loss, especially because of how thoroughly average he was last year.

The OL is a question mark, but a controlled one. We've had Noteboom for four years and he's practiced with the ones A LOT while giving Whit rest days.

We will be definitively better during the regular season IMO at RB, WR, TE and ILB whether from additions or internal development (the two backup TEs, for example were forced to play - and made plays - in the Super Bowl). We also have most of an entire draft class from last year that basically red shirted.

The issue will come in the playoffs - and the questions will be do we have enough to rush the passer? Miller was incredible in the playoffs. Id expect another mid season trade to help bolster that unit.

Can Robinson do what OBJ did? Will OBJ be back?

And finally, can we beat the Packers? We were the Bucs kryptonite and they avoided us for their Super Bowl run. Not so lucky the next year. Well for us, that's Green Bay. And we were lucky to avoid them this season. Does Adams being gone help us get over that hump? A potential trip to Lambeau could be all that stands in our way of getting back to the Super Bowl.

 

[FrodosFinger]

One year window I guess Donald retires after one more year. After that the vets will be cut due to cap and they’ll have to do a rebuild. Let’s not act like Stafford is Brady