I know I'm going to get jumped on here. I'm not really the "you are what your record says you are" camp, but the whole "hey, look at my big swinging DVOA" doesn't thrill me either.
Yes, we've lost mostly close games. Yes, we haven't been blown out at all, and have had more road games than home games. Atlanta has also had a ton of close games, the difference is they win them. And I don't think they have really any better talent than we do as a team; better offensive weapons and a QB who is more experience, if not playing better than ours now, and we have the defensive edge still. But, good teams find ways to win. We're not a good team yet. BUT, we're not a bad team. Mediocre. Average. Whatever.
Thing is, to start the season our defense was great, and our offense was still learning. Now, our offense is showing a steady sign of progression from game to game, while the defense is regressing. Good offense....poor defense (lately. take the last 4 games, take out the good games and we're trending downward.....per DVOA). So, one squad is playing well, the other is playing sub-par. Mediocre. Average.
Yup, the Giants won their division last year at 9-7 (at the last game I might add), then went on to win the SB. Difference is, they were raging on all cylinders at the end of the year, while we are trending downwards in certain areas. Look at the DVOA of the teams we've played: we're making poor passing teams look good, good rushing teams look elite, and well the Jets are the Jets. That's a problem...making teams look better against us than they do against, well, everyone else.
OK, so say we can't win a road game, but we'll go perfect at home, right ? And 9-7 may be good enough to get into the playoffs, per English. here's the problem: who says we'll be the 49ers at home ? We have a disturbing trend of getting gashed up the middle of our defense on runs, and the 49ers are trending into a very good groove right now. Everything is working for them, hell their backup QB just went into NO and won a game.....and we just lost to Miami.
Oh, and Tampa Bay and NO scare me. They are hot right now, this is a league that favors offense anyways, and their DVOA is better than ours offensively the last 4-5 games. There, I said it.