NFC West Playoffs

ringless · Sep 17, 2015

I am just curious. How many wins do you feel will be required to get a playoff spot this year?

In 2013 the Cardinals finished 10-6, and that was not good enough for a spot.
In 2014 the 6 Seed was 11-5 , again 10-6 Would not have been good enough for a spot.
In 2015, it would be safe to assume that 9-7 Equals missed playoffs, while 10-6 will get you in about 50%.

A two way tie at 10-6 in this division would likely result in only one team in the playoffs. While 11-5 Would likely be good enough to win it outright considering the strength of schedule for ALL teams in the NFC West.

In this scenario the losses to elimination, or room for error for each team stand at:

St Louis 6.5* (Own tiebreaker over all NFC West Teams)
Arizona 6
SF 6
Sea 5 16.66% towards elimination

I will try to keep this updated throughout the season. Each loss accounts for about 16.66% of your total losses allowed before likely elimination.

Rex · Sep 18, 2015

Interesting. I'll follow it. :th2thumbs:

SalishHawkFan · Sep 20, 2015

yes, interesting way to look at it. Adds a bit of tension.

ringless · Sep 20, 2015

So the NFC West took a little tumble today with losses by St Louis, SF today, and Seattle with only Arizona coming out with a win.

I think if you had to put a value on games inter-conference away games are the most affordable losses in a tie-breaking situations therefore the least painful. You could argue that SF's loss today was the least damaging loss since it was away and inter-conference.
Losses to possible elimination DIV NFC
Arizona 6 0-0 2-0
St Louis 5.5* 16.66% towards elimination 1-0 1-1
SF 5 16.66% towards elimination 0-0 1-0
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination 0-1 0-2

Obviously Seattle's record is a little misleading. The rest of the NFC West still has to play GB. Seattle is still more than likely the best team in the division. We also have a Divisional game coming up which guarantees at least either SF or AZ will be one game closer next week to potential elimination.

TheRealDTM · Sep 20, 2015

Honestly we will probably have a good 10-6 record and miss the playoffs as the Cardinals go 11-5. It's only fair we've done it to the division 3 years in a row, sure wish we were in the creampuff NFC North/South/East/SE/NW anything but our division.

Uncle Si · Sep 21, 2015

I still think its 11 to win the West, and the Cards are setting that number. 10 may get you into the playoffs though. The East and South look fragile, especially with Romo's injury. The Lions have started slow, and their trip here, even though its early, will be a critical game in the Wild Card component

Popeyejones · Sep 21, 2015

Uncle Si":31se1h25 said:
I still think its 11 to win the West, and the Cards are setting that number. 10 may get you into the playoffs though. The East and South look fragile, especially with Romo's injury. The Lions have started slow, and their trip here, even though its early, will be a critical game in the Wild Card component

Good post. This sounds about right to me too, although I think the top two teams could also reasonably end up both at 10-6 and both make the playoffs.

I still don't trust the Cardinals to be better than 10-6 (although their floor has definitely raised for me), and probably trust the Hawks by one less game than I did at the start of the season (when I trusted them in the 12-4 to 11-5 range).

I also don't think the NFCW is as likely to have a basement dweller as I did before the seasons started. I'd guess the 9ers bottom out at about 5-11 or so (I thought 4-12 or worse was of greater possibility for them than I do now). This could definitely change with injury though (as I've been complaining about since last year, I don't trust Hyde's ability to stay healthy).

ringless · Sep 28, 2015

As the season goes it will be easier to see the required amount of wins to Win the division or get a WC spot. For the time being I will set the bar at 11 wins until we see how things start shaping up.

This week is a huge week. But of course so is every week as each week starts to heat up and have a little more importance. The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks all sit at 1-2. If any of those teams drop a game and sit at 1-3 the chances of going to the playoffs is almost non existent. It would require an extraordinary performance to reach the playoffs after a abhorrent start.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona 6 Div 1-0 NFC 3-0
St Louis 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 1-0 NFC 1-2
SF 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-1
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 1-2

Current Wild Card spots
Atlanta Falcons 3-0
Minnesota Vikings 2-1

It is also worth noting that it very well could drop down to 10 games this year the way things are shaping up. Only 6 teams have a winning record in the NFC Conference after 3 weeks. 10 Have losing records.

Overseasfan · Sep 29, 2015

The East is a graveyard currently. The Eagles are underperforming, the Cowboys are pretty much useless without Romo and Dez and the Giants and Redskins are traditionally bad. I can't see a wildcard team coming from there. Then we have the south. NO and Tampa are horrible at the moment and I highly doubt we'll have two teams from there in the play-offs. Don't forget that both Atlanta and Carolina had some really easy games so far.

My bet is that the wildcard teams come from the north and the west. Thus meaning we could realistically finish behind the Cards and still make it to the play-offs. Whether that's at 12-4, 11-5 or 10-6 I believe the NFC won't be as competetive this year.

Rex · Sep 29, 2015

ringless":2sfx4rqu said:
As the season goes it will be easier to see the required amount of wins to Win the division or get a WC spot. For the time being I will set the bar at 11 wins until we see how things start shaping up.

This week is a huge week. But of course so is every week as each week starts to heat up and have a little more importance. The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks all sit at 1-2. If any of those teams drop a game and sit at 1-3 the chances of going to the playoffs is almost non existent. It would require an extraordinary performance to reach the playoffs after a abhorrent start.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona 6 Div 1-0 NFC 3-0
St Louis 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 1-2
SF 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-1
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 1-2

Current Wild Card spots
Atlanta Falcons 3-0
Minnesota Vikings 2-1

It is also worth noting that it very well could drop down to 10 games this year the way things are shaping up. Only 6 teams have a winning record in the NFC Conference after 3 weeks. 10 Have losing records.

Rams are 1-0 in the division, soon to be 2-0. :th2thumbs:

ringless · Sep 29, 2015

Rex":df86meii said:
ringless":df86meii said:

As the season goes it will be easier to see the required amount of wins to Win the division or get a WC spot. For the time being I will set the bar at 11 wins until we see how things start shaping up.

This week is a huge week. But of course so is every week as each week starts to heat up and have a little more importance. The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks all sit at 1-2. If any of those teams drop a game and sit at 1-3 the chances of going to the playoffs is almost non existent. It would require an extraordinary performance to reach the playoffs after a abhorrent start.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona 6 Div 1-0 NFC 3-0
St Louis 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 1-2
SF 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-1
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 1-2

Current Wild Card spots
Atlanta Falcons 3-0
Minnesota Vikings 2-1

It is also worth noting that it very well could drop down to 10 games this year the way things are shaping up. Only 6 teams have a winning record in the NFC Conference after 3 weeks. 10 Have losing records.

Click to expand...

Rams are 1-0 in the division, soon to be 2-0. :th2thumbs:

You are correct, I was already posting next weeks numbers buy corrected it :stirthepot:

This week should be interesting. I'd say its a must win week for Seattle (and they will) SF and Stl as a 1-3 start almost guarantees an absence come January. I expect Stl to play hard

ringless · Oct 7, 2015

As the season goes it will be easier to see the required amount of wins to Win the division or get a WC spot. For the time being I will set the bar at 11 wins until we see how things start shaping up. The NFC east may very well help guide this to a 10 win requirement. However with the possibility of strong teams in the NFC West and week scheduling in the South 11 could still be the bar.

San Fransisco sitting at 1-3 is technically only 1 game out of the wildcard spot, however Elo gives them a 13% chance at grabbing one thus far. Seattle will travel to Cincy. Seattle currently has a 65% shot at a playoff spot. Arizona will travel to face Detroit and currently has a 55% shot at the playoffs. While according to Elo the Rams who face GB have a 20% shot. The Rams have the toughest battle of the week and a 2-4 start would be a hard one to recover from.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona 5 16.66% Towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 3-1
St Louis 4 33.32% towards elimination Div 1-0 NFC 1-2
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 2-2
SF 3 49.48% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-2

Current Wild Card spots
Atlanta Falcons 4-0
St Louis Rams 2-2
----------------------------
7. Vikings 2-2
8. Seahawks 2-2
9. Giants 2-2
10. Redskins 2-2

ringless · Oct 11, 2015

As the season goes it will be easier to see the required amount of wins to Win the division or get a WC spot. For the time being I will set the bar at 11 wins until we see how things start shaping up. The NFC east may very well help guide this to a 10 win requirement. However with the possibility of strong teams in the NFC West and weak scheduling in the South 11 could still be the bar.
*** Next week will most likely revise to 10 games for a WC spot as opposed to 11 depending on outcome of games.***

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona (5) 16.66% Towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 4-1
St Louis (3) 49.48% towards elimination Div 2-0 NFC 2-3
Sea (3) 49.48% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 2-2
SF (2) 66.66% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-3

Divisional Leaders
1. Falcons 5-0
2. Packers 5-0
3. Cardinals 4-1
4. Giants 3-2

WILDCARD-
Top two Non divisional winners:
5. 4-0 Panthers Who play the Seahawks. Crucial game for both teams
6. 2-2 Vikings
---------------------------------------------------------------
Outsiders:

7. Rams 2-3
8. Boys 2-3
9. Skins 2-3
10. Seahawks 2-3
11. Bucs 2-3
12. Eagles 2-3
13. Bears 2-3
14. 49ers 1-4

WilsonMVP · Oct 11, 2015

ringless":32iyh4hg said:
So the NFC West took a little tumble today with losses by St Louis, SF today, and Seattle with only Arizona coming out with a win.

I think if you had to put a value on games inter-conference away games are the most affordable losses in a tie-breaking situations therefore the least painful. You could argue that SF's loss today was the least damaging loss since it was away and inter-conference.
Losses to possible elimination DIV NFC
Arizona 6 0-0 2-0
St Louis 5.5* 16.66% towards elimination 1-0 1-1
SF 5 16.66% towards elimination 0-0 1-0
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination 0-1 0-2

Obviously Seattle's record is a little misleading. The rest of the NFC West still has to play GB. Seattle is still more than likely the best team in the division. We also have a Divisional game coming up which guarantees at least either SF or AZ will be one game closer next week to potential elimination.

Rest of Division also has to play the Bengals...Between Packers and Bengals they are 10-0 right now.. That could very well be 2 losses for each other team and Rodgers and Dalton both have over 120 QB rating for the season. Cards get BOTH the Packers and Bengals at home though which is kind of dumb but whatever

ringless · Oct 11, 2015

WilsonMVP":77u93vly said:
ringless":77u93vly said:

So the NFC West took a little tumble today with losses by St Louis, SF today, and Seattle with only Arizona coming out with a win.

I think if you had to put a value on games inter-conference away games are the most affordable losses in a tie-breaking situations therefore the least painful. You could argue that SF's loss today was the least damaging loss since it was away and inter-conference.
Losses to possible elimination DIV NFC
Arizona 6 0-0 2-0
St Louis 5.5* 16.66% towards elimination 1-0 1-1
SF 5 16.66% towards elimination 0-0 1-0
Sea 4 33.32% towards elimination 0-1 0-2

Obviously Seattle's record is a little misleading. The rest of the NFC West still has to play GB. Seattle is still more than likely the best team in the division. We also have a Divisional game coming up which guarantees at least either SF or AZ will be one game closer next week to potential elimination.

Click to expand...

Rest of Division also has to play the Bengals...Between Packers and Bengals they are 10-0 right now.. That could very well be 2 losses for each other team and Rodgers and Dalton both have over 120 QB rating for the season.

That's true. AZ is the only team left that has to play GB and AZ should lose that one pretty handedly. The Cardinals play the Bengals at the end of November and Bad Andy might show up around then. Who knows that one I'm not so sure who will win yet. But I think it's a given AZ loses to GB.

AZ and Seattle have to play each other twice as well, and I think it'd be fair to say that could likely result in a split this season. Seattle should really be able to make up any lost ground in the second half while AZ faces the hard part of the Schedule and Sea goes into their easier part.

WilsonMVP · Oct 11, 2015

Overseasfan":n8vjfhyp said:
The East is a graveyard currently. The Eagles are underperforming, the Cowboys are pretty much useless without Romo and Dez and the Giants and Redskins are traditionally bad. I can't see a wildcard team coming from there. Then we have the south. NO and Tampa are horrible at the moment and I highly doubt we'll have two teams from there in the play-offs. Don't forget that both Atlanta and Carolina had some really easy games so far.

My bet is that the wildcard teams come from the north and the west. Thus meaning we could realistically finish behind the Cards and still make it to the play-offs. Whether that's at 12-4, 11-5 or 10-6 I believe the NFC won't be as competetive this year.

I think this post nailed it almost 2 weeks ago.

If i had to pick I think the wildcard seed 5 comes out of the South just because Panthers and Falcons allready have good records. The #6 spot is most likely between the Viking and whoever is close to them in the west

ringless · Oct 20, 2015

It is clear that 11 Wins will not be needed this year. In fact 10 shouldn't be needed either. The last wild card spot is currently held by the Vikings at 3-2. From the 7th seed to the 15th all teams have 2 wins. I doubt they go 8-2 to get to 10 wins so I think it's fair to say that 9 Wins this year will be good enough to get in the playoffs. Much easier than years past. For the time being I am going to drop it down to 10 games however to be conservative. So all teams gained one game back from elimination due to the poor performance of the NFC as a whole. I mean even the Lions are only 2 games back of a spot despite being 1-5. In saying that the Seahawks aren't in a dire position as some would think by any means. Especially since the team they are only a game behind has to play GB twice, and Seattle once.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona (5) 28.57% Towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 4-1
St Louis (4) 42.85% towards elimination Div 2-0 NFC 2-2
Sea (3) 57.14% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 2-3
SF (3) 57.14% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-3

Divisional Leaders
1. Packers 6-0
2. Panthers 5-0
3. Cardinals 4-2
4. Eagles 3-3

WILDCARD-
Top two Non divisional winners:
5. 5-1 Falcons Who play the Seahawks. Crucial game for both teams
6. 3-2 Vikings
---------------------------------------------------------------
Outsiders:

7. Giants 3-3
8. Rams 2-3
9. Cowboys 2-3
10. Bucs 2-3
11. Skins 2-3
12. Hawks 2-3
13. Saints 2-3
14. Bears 2-3
15. Lions 1-5

Ramfan128 · Oct 20, 2015

ringless":2yqxyh6o said:
It is clear that 11 Wins will not be needed this year. In fact 10 shouldn't be needed either. The last wild card spot is currently held by the Vikings at 3-2. From the 7th seed to the 15th all teams have 2 wins. I doubt they go 8-2 to get to 10 wins so I think it's fair to say that 9 Wins this year will be good enough to get in the playoffs. Much easier than years past. For the time being I am going to drop it down to 10 games however to be conservative. So all teams gained one game back from elimination due to the poor performance of the NFC as a whole. I mean even the Lions are only 2 games back of a spot despite being 1-5. In saying that the Seahawks aren't in a dire position as some would think by any means. Especially since the team they are only a game behind has to play GB twice, and Seattle once.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona (5) 28.57% Towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 4-1
St Louis (4) 42.85% towards elimination Div 2-0 NFC 2-2
Sea (3) 57.14% towards elimination DIV 0-1 NFC 2-3
SF (3) 57.14% towards elimination Div 0-1 NFC 1-3

Divisional Leaders
1. Packers 6-0
2. Panthers 5-0
3. Cardinals 4-2
4. Eagles 3-3

WILDCARD-
Top two Non divisional winners:
5. 5-1 Falcons Who play the Seahawks. Crucial game for both teams
6. 3-2 Vikings
---------------------------------------------------------------
Outsiders:

7. Giants 3-3
8. Rams 2-3
9. Cowboys 2-3
10. Bucs 2-3
11. Skins 2-3
12. Hawks 2-3
13. Saints 2-3
14. Bears 2-3
15. Lions 1-5

And the Niners are so bad they aren't even in the NFC anymore!!

But seriously, that's one more 2-4 team to the list...I'm assuming you meant to change the Bears/Saints/Hawks/Skins to 2-4...

I think we can eliminate some of these teams....like Tampa Bay, Washington, New Orleans, Chicago and Detroit.

That would leave the 6th wildcard spot between the Vikings, Rams, Cowboys, Giants, and Seahawks...

The Cowboys would be the first one eliminated from that list....with Romo out for a little while longer, hard to see them winning any games.

I think ultimately the Giants win the East at 9-7 and the Eagles end up in the 8-8 range.

I think this 6th seed will be had by the Vikings, Rams, or Seahawks.

The Vikings play both the Rams and Seahawks in Minnesota, while the Rams travel to Seattle later this season. Both the Rams and Seahawks have a lighter schedule the rest of the way, while Minnesota has to play the Cardinals/Seahawks/Rams/Packers twice.

I think if Minnesota beats both the Rams and Seahawks, they will get the 6th seed. Conversely, if they split (doesn't matter which way), I think the 6th seed will come down to Seatte vs. St. Louis in week 16.....although that's assuming we can actually win some games we should win...which has yet to be proven.

Babsmack · Oct 20, 2015

ringless · Oct 26, 2015

So I guess 10-6 is the current base for a spot. With 9-7 meaning elimination thanks in part to the NFC South scheduling and record.

As well as Minnesota, and the possibility of 3 NFC West teams also competing for a spot. Boy do the Rams appear to be more dangerous than ever! So 6 losses are affordable, but the 7th gets you killed.

Losses to possible elimination DIV and NFC Records
Arizona (5) 28.57% Towards elimination Div 1-1 NFC 4-1
St Louis (4) 42.85% towards elimination Div 2-0 NFC 2-2
Sea (3) 57.14% towards elimination DIV 1-1 NFC 3-3
SF (2) 71.42% towards elimination Div 0-2 NFC 1-3

I think, and I certainly could be wrong but the Rams could very well win this division. Not saying they will as the same could be said for Seattle and AZ. I have nightmares of seeing that D-line and Aaron Donald again. I am sure Kap hasn't slept yet this week.

Divisional Leaders:
1. Panthers 6-0
2. Packers 6-0
3. Cardinals 5-2
4. Giants 4-3
------------------------------------
Wild Cards
5. Falcons 5-1
6. Vikings 4-2
------------------------------------
Outsiders looking in
7. Rams 3-3
8. Redskins 3-4
9. Seahawks 3-4
10. Eagles 3-4
11. Saints 3-4
12. Cowboys 2-4
13. Bucs 2-4
14. Bears 2-4
15. 49ers 2-5
16. Lions 1-6

NFC West Playoffs

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