Nate Silver: Seahawks Underdogs To Make Playoffs

hawknation2014 · Oct 20, 2014

Despite rating the Seahawks as the 3rd best team in the NFL in his Elo ratings, fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver says we make the playoffs just 46% of the time in his simulations due to being "harmed by playing in the NFL’s toughest division, in a deep conference and against a very tough schedule."

Jeff Sagarin’s ratings also have the Seahawks as the third-best team in football based solely on their performance this year. The Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 18 points against a very tough schedule.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the- ... -playoffs/

Chukarhawk · Oct 21, 2014

I agree. 3 games in a row where we look like we don't belong in a playoff conversation. Add a wicked schedule, problems on both O line and Dline and lots of injuries to key players and you have 7-9/ 9-7 finish and no playoffs.

MizzouHawkGal · Oct 21, 2014

hawknation2014":loxss1q5 said:
Despite rating the Seahawks as the 3rd best team in the NFL in his Elo ratings, fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver says we make the playoffs just 46% of the time in his simulations due to being "harmed by playing in the NFL’s toughest division, in a deep conference and against a very tough schedule."

Jeff Sagarin’s ratings also have the Seahawks as the third-best team in football based solely on their performance this year. The Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 18 points against a very tough schedule.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the- ... -playoffs/

Of course he's right currently because like this http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html he's going off real time pure probabilities without factoring in everything else. String together 2 wins in a row and watch the numbers change radically.

davidonmi · Oct 21, 2014

10 wins gives us a 77% shot and a 1 in 4 to win the division, I still believe that's where we'll finish

onanygivensunday · Oct 21, 2014

Who is Nate Silver and why would we listen to him?

Seattle will win the NFCW at 12-4 and will therefore host a playoff game.

MizzouHawkGal · Oct 21, 2014

davidonmi":2r4wvxsr said:
10 wins gives us a 77% shot and a 1 in 4 to win the division, I still believe that's where we'll finish

Basically the goal is to go 7-3 or 8-2 which is very realistic even with our schedule. Better yet just go 9-1 or win out and end the conversation by winning the division easily and likely getting the 2nd seed in the playoffs.

pehawk · Oct 21, 2014

MizzouHawkGal":1sf1nzzv said:
davidonmi":1sf1nzzv said:

10 wins gives us a 77% shot and a 1 in 4 to win the division, I still believe that's where we'll finish

Click to expand...

Basically the goal is to go 7-3 or 8-2 which is very realistic even with our schedule. Better yet just go 9-1 or win out and end the conversation by winning the division easily and likely getting the 2nd seed in the playoffs.

Word.

This Sunday's pretty big, IMO. For practical and confidence reasons.

MizzouHawkGal · Oct 21, 2014

pehawk":rn7ji9u3 said:
MizzouHawkGal":rn7ji9u3 said:

davidonmi":rn7ji9u3 said:

10 wins gives us a 77% shot and a 1 in 4 to win the division, I still believe that's where we'll finish

Click to expand...

Basically the goal is to go 7-3 or 8-2 which is very realistic even with our schedule. Better yet just go 9-1 or win out and end the conversation by winning the division easily and likely getting the 2nd seed in the playoffs.

Click to expand...

Word.

This Sunday's pretty big, IMO. For practical and confidence reasons.

I have said several times that I think the Carolina game is what I would term a "fulcrum" point for us. Win and we go anywhere from 13-3 to 11-5 (which should be good enough to win the division at the low end or get a 1st round bye at the high end of that spectrum). Lose and I see us going anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6 (which puts us either out of the playoffs or in the wildcard hunt).

It's just flat out an important game. The only games I see as more important at this point are our remaining division games.

pehawk · Oct 21, 2014

I'm stealing use of the word fulcrum for my future endeavors.

MizzouHawkGal · Oct 21, 2014

I don't want to know...

Sgt. Largent · Oct 21, 2014

Well yeah duh we're an underdog, we're 3-3, already had our bye and haven't even gotten to the toughest part of our schedule.

kearly · Oct 21, 2014

With respect to Silver, who's infinitely smarter than I am, I don't think 10-6 gives Seattle a 77% chance. I think his model is underestimating a few teams that are having special seasons but might not have the stats to back up the wins. The NFL with it's super small size schedule means leaning on the numbers can be problematic at times. Not every season. But this season with all the wackiness, I think we are going to see quite a few 2012 Indianapolis Colts type teams wind up with 11 wins.

Hawks46 · Oct 21, 2014

It's all dependent on divisional play at this point.

There are quite a few teams in the NFC with very good records, so wildcard and playoff seeding are looking grim, so the best chance is to win the division.

It's infinitely easier to win the division if we hang 2 losses on Arizona and SF. The Rams are already out of it.

DavidSeven · Oct 21, 2014

I just have a hard time believing AZ sustains their success and the Niners are essentially in the same boat that we're in (3 losses). I think 11 wins can get this division outright; 10 wins gives you a great shot if you have the tie-breakers. Hang two losses on AZ and SF each, and I think you can control your own destiny.

Missing_Clink · Oct 21, 2014

onanygivensunday":1jnsy5c0 said:
Who is Nate Silver and why would we listen to him?

Seattle will win the NFCW at 12-4 and will therefore host a playoff game.

One of the preeminent statisticians out there. He correctly predicted the outcome of all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election using his statistical models. He is worth paying attention to.

Reaneypark · Oct 21, 2014

MizzouHawkGal":y9nrb4mg said:
pehawk":y9nrb4mg said:

MizzouHawkGal":y9nrb4mg said:

davidonmi":y9nrb4mg said:

10 wins gives us a 77% shot and a 1 in 4 to win the division, I still believe that's where we'll finish

Click to expand...

Basically the goal is to go 7-3 or 8-2 which is very realistic even with our schedule. Better yet just go 9-1 or win out and end the conversation by winning the division easily and likely getting the 2nd seed in the playoffs.

Click to expand...

Word.

This Sunday's pretty big, IMO. For practical and confidence reasons.

Click to expand...

I have said several times that I think the Carolina game is what I would term a "fulcrum" point for us. Win and we go anywhere from 13-3 to 11-5 (which should be good enough to win the division at the low end or get a 1st round bye at the high end of that spectrum). Lose and I see us going anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6 (which puts us either out of the playoffs or in the wildcard hunt).

It's just flat out an important game. The only games I see as more important at this point are our remaining division games.

Spot on, this team can't survive three losses in a row and make the playoffs. This one has to be a W for the Hawks.

hawksfansinceday1 · Oct 21, 2014

Reaneypark":2kwo0u1s said:
............this team can't survive three losses in a row and make the playoffs. This one has to be a W for the Hawks.

This

mikeak · Oct 21, 2014

At the end of the day we are half a game behind the 49ers and we play them twice

We are two games behind Arizona and we play them twice

I have all the respect for Silver and his models and he can calculate the probability. Doesn't change the fact that we play the teams ahead of us twice and if we win those and the same number of games against others as they do then we are good to go.

Obviously not easy to go 4-0 against SF and ARZ......

NINEster · Oct 22, 2014

mikeak":moe27lwx said:
At the end of the day we are half a game behind the 49ers and we play them twice

We are two games behind Arizona and we play them twice

I have all the respect for Silver and his models and he can calculate the probability. Doesn't change the fact that we play the teams ahead of us twice and if we win those and the same number of games against others as they do then we are good to go.

Obviously not easy to go 4-0 against SF and ARZ......

I would say it's impossible being that Seattle hasn't swept SF since what, '08 and AZ.....has it ever been done?

As it is right now, Seahawks are probably going 3-3 in the division like 2012, and are in danger of doing worse than that.

James in PA · Oct 22, 2014

Simply put: we must beat Carolina this week. If we lose 3 in a row against the NFC, I'm sorry but we're done. If were able to pull this one off, here's how it needs to play out after that: win the rest of our home games and go no worse than 2-2 at Arizona, at San Fran, at KC and at Philly. The last part of that is what concerns me the most. It won't be easy to go 2-2 in those four games, but that's the position we put ourselves in by losing to the Rams last week.

Nate Silver: Seahawks Underdogs To Make Playoffs

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