Would you agree that Russell is the definition of "clutch"?

[Mick063]

So explain this ESPN QBR with respect to "clutch weighted" statistics to me. Russell is currently ranked 23rd, just one spot above Ryan Fitzpatrick, and behind a "clutch" performer like Kaepernick (who failed to score in the fourth quarter through the first three games) Huh? "Clutch" weighted?

For example, a few definitions:

PASS EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.



From this link: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68332 ... ack-rating

Clutch Index

The final major step is to look at how "clutch" the situation was when creating expected points. A normal play has a clutch index of 1.0. For instance, first-and-goal from the 10-yard line in a tie game at the start of the second quarter has a clutch index of almost exactly 1.0. A more clutch situation, one late in the game when the game is close -- the same situation as above but midway through the fourth quarter, for example -- has a clutch index of about 2.0. Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3.

These clutch index values came from an analysis of how different situations affect a game's win probability on average. One way to think of it is in terms of pressure. A clutch play is defined before the play by how close the game appears to be. Down four points with three seconds to go and facing third-and-goal from the 3-yard line -- that is a high-pressure and high-clutch index situation because the play can realistically raise the odds of winning to almost 100 percent or bring them down from about 40 percent to almost zero percent. The same situation from midfield isn't as high pressure because it's very unlikely that the team will pull out the victory. Sure, a Hail Mary can pull the game out, but if it doesn't work, the team didn't fail on that play so much as it failed before then. On third-and-goal from the 3-yard line, failure means people will be talking about that final play and what went wrong.

The clutch indices are multiplied by the quarterback's expected points on plays when the QB had a significant contribution, then divided by the sum of the clutch indices and multiplied by 100 to get a clutch-valued expected points added per 100 plays.


Say what? All I can say is that their "clutch" index is seriously "F"ed up.


The only times I recall Russell getting stopped in the clutch is when the offensive line negates a good play by holding or procedure, creating much more difficult circumstances.

 

[kpak76]

QBR is a total joke. The "clutch" factor value is a number made up by a singular person (Trent Dilfer). So basically the QBR is just Trent Dilfers opinion quantified.

 

[-The Glove-]

Had an argument about QBR the other day with some idiot. He cited it to prove that RW is a "weak, game manager"

 

[Scottemojo]

Russell has had two "clutch" opportunities this year. Converted it OT vs Denver. Did not do well at all in San Diego.

QBR is stupid. Russ is good. I know what I know, if you know what I mean.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

QBR is a total joke. The "clutch" factor value is a number made up by a singular person (Trent Dilfer). So basically the QBR is just Trent Dilfers opinion quantified.

Trent Dilfer is the highest rated quarterback in history using these metrics.

Probably.

 

[Smellyman]

Russell has had two "clutch" opportunities this year. Converted it OT vs Denver. Did not do well at all in San Diego.

QBR is stupid. Russ is good. I know what I know, if you know what I mean.

If not for a penalty on Okung and a shoestring tackle, I would've like RW's chances in SD. Que sera sera

QBR should die in a fire. Anybody who cites that metric is an idiot.

In my 30 some years watching football, I have never felt more confident in a qb with the game on the line. He is so clutch.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

He is as clutch as any QB in the entire league, ANY.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Clutch? What does that actually mean? A pedal or lever? Reliable under adverse conditions? I'm not thinking he's the former correct?

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

I wouldn't even be bold enough to say "clutch" is a real characteristic. When I see a consistently "clutch" player, he or she is usually an individual who is well-versed in taking calculated risks on a regular basis. Thus, when the game is on the line, we see them do what they've so frequently done whether or not it's early or late in a game, and we mistakenly call it "clutch" when it is simply skill.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

He's Money

 

[chris98251]

He waits for the moment to elevate his team and his game.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

If he can elevate his game at will, why would he wait until the very, very end when factors that are completely out of his control like luck, referee mistakes/biases, and his receivers dropping even the most precise passes have a more direct impact on the outcome of the game?

 

[Smellyman]

If he can elevate his game at will, why would he wait until the very, very end when factors that are completely out of his control like luck, referee mistakes/biases, and his receivers dropping even the most precise passes have a more direct impact on the outcome of the game?

nature of How seattle play conservative, but when the game is on the line, they say RW take over.

They could play more aggressive from the get go but choose to pound on O and D

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

If that's the case, why don't they tell RW to "take over" everytime we're in the red-zone? No need to make a comeback if we never bother to get behind.

 

[seahawks08]

If that's the case, why don't they tell RW to "take over" everytime we're in the red-zone? No need to make a comeback if we never bother to get behind.

He can only control what he can, he can't control coaches, defense, opponent team, referees. The only way to make an impact when nothing is going our way is to have a game winning drive and the time expires after we score. He elevates and brings a sense if calm that everyone in the team feeds off. A good leader tries to be ahead and avoid situations, a great leader is one who can get you out of a difficult situation, most of which he never created in the first place. I love clutch, I love game winning drives, that's the beauty about how we play games, that's what makes NFL interesting. Just like the Seahawks, there are well plaid coaches, talent and everything in other teams too and everyone is always trying to put a solid game plan and execute. That's why you see upsets every often, that's why people make or lose money betting. If games are not competitive and we keep blowing out every team we play, there will be no NFL.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Russell has had two "clutch" opportunities this year. Converted it OT vs Denver. Did not do well at all in San Diego.......

No QB is "clutch" in every opportunity to be so. As Scott said, he wasn't able to get it done vs. SD but was against the Donks.
All know is that when I look at the QBs in the league, there's no other one I would want to try to win a game "in the clutch" for my team.


QBR is a freakin' joke. Sure wish people would just ignore it.

 

[oldhawkfan]

QBR automatically deducts 20 points if the QB in question is deemed to be too short.

 

[Scottemojo]

I know what I know, if you know what I mean.

Edie Brickell is a sage. I get all my wisdumb from her.

 

[Scottemojo]

I know what I know, if you know what I mean.

Edie Brickell is a sage. I get all my wisdumb from her.

So....you're not aware of too many things then?

What I am is what I am.

 

[rjdriver]

I've been watching Seahawk football for 35 years. Only with Wilson do I feel like we are in every game, that no deficit is insurmountable. Last year against TB at halftime, I knew we would win. I wasn't hoping for a comeback, I knew we would win. This was because of Russell Wilson. We have seen it multiple times in just 3 short years. It's an experience as a Seahawk fan I have never had and am trying to savor every moment. Hasselbeck, Krieg, Zorn, even Kitna will always be some of my favorite Hawks, but I know this is a special time for all of us.

With regards to this clutch thing; I love the fact the Wilson doesn't have the opportunity as frequently as others to be clutch. Why? Because we are winning a lot, this is a fine football team. I find the perception flawed that Luck et al. are so clutch because they mount a fourth quarter comeback without considering the fact that their turnovers and poor play directly contributed to the need for the comeback.

Despite the ridiculous formulas, I know that if you asked multiple active players today who you want in the "clutch", Russell will be in the top five everytime.

And yes, Religion indeed is a smile on a dog