Who to cheer- SF or NO....

[Teqneek]

I wrote about this exact subject this past week. For those who are thinking about rooting for San Francisco this weekend, just consider this and how that win COULD affect things as far as playoff seeding is concerned ...

I've been giving this some long and hard thought ... and in the end, I would say that rooting for New Orleans would probably be the prudent move. Let me lay it out for you why ...

Let's say that the 49ers end up winning this weekend and beating the Saints. While that might make several Seahawks fans happy in the here and now, let's play this forward and explore what could happen.

The 49ers would then be 7-3 ... and the Saints would fall to 7-3 as well. A win against the Saints would mean that the 49ers would be just 2 games behind the Seahawks for the NFC West lead.

The 49ers face the Redskins (on the road) and the Rams (at home) after that. Let's project wins in those games as well ... and say that the Seahawks win the Viking game ... and the Saints beat the Falcons in Week 12 (all plausible and predictable).

Let's further say that the Seahawks end up somehow LOSING that Monday Night matchup to the Saints. That's a good Saints team, so that's entirely possible. Let's also say that a re-energized 49ers team ends up beating the Seahawks in San Francisco in Week 14 and winning out the rest of their games.

Additionally, let's also say that the Seahawks (outside of losing to the 49ers and Saints) win the rest of their games as well.

That would change the equation quite a bit. Here’s how that would look …

San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [8-3] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-3] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [1-8] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (WIN in this scenario)


Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Week 1 – at Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Win 12-7)
Week 2 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-3] (Win 29-3)
Week 3 – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 45-17)
Week 4 – at Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 23-20)
Week 5 – at Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 28-34)
Week 6 – vs. Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 20-13)
Week 7 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 34-22)
Week 8 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
Week 9 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [1-8] (Win 27-24)
Week 10 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 33-10)
Week 11—vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 12 – BYE
Week 13 – vs. New Orleans Saints [7-2] (LOSS in this scenario)
Week 14 – at San Francisco 49ers [10-3] (LOSS in this scenario)
Week 15 – at New York Giants [3-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 16 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 17 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)


Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …

In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. Like last time, we move on to the next tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

Let's say that the Seahawks and 49ers only loss in the division is to each other (i.e. each sweeps the Rams and Cardinals and is 1-1 against each other) ...

49ers … 5-1
Seahawks … 5-1

They would be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …

Again, in this scenario we’ll assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …

49ers …
Indianapolis … Loss
Rams … Win
Houston … Win
Cardinals … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
Carolina … Loss
New Orleans …Win
Rams … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Atlanta … Win
Cardinals … Win
49ers Record … 10-2

Seahawks …
Carolina … Win
Jacksonville … Win
Houston … Win
Indianapolis … Loss
Tennessee … Win
Arizona … Win
St. Louis … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Atlanta … Win
New Orleans … Loss
Arizona … Win
St. Louis … Win
Seahawks Record … 10-2

The Seahawks and 49ers would again be tied, so we would move on to the next tiebreaker ...

Tiebreaker #4 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

49ers ...
Week 1 -- Packers ... Win
Week 2 -- Seahawks ... Loss
Week 4 -- Rams ... Win
Week 6 -- Cardinals ... Win
Week 10 -- Panthers ... Loss
Week 11 -- Saints ... Win
Week 12 -- Redskins ... Win
Week 13 -- Rams ... Win
Week 14 -- Seahawks ... Win
Week 15 – Buccaneers … Win
Week 16 – Falcons … Win
Week 17 – Cardinals … Win

49ers NFC Record would be ... 10-2

Seahawks ...
Week 1 -- Panthers ... Win
Week 2 -- 49ers ... Win
Week 7 -- Cardinals ... Win
Week 8 -- Rams ... Win
Week 9 -- Buccaneers ... Win
Week 10 -- Falcons ... Win
Week 11 -- Vikings ... Win
Week 13 -- Saints ... Loss
Week 15 -- Gaints ... Win
Week 16 – Cardinals … Win
Week 17 – Rams … Win

Seahawks NFC Record would be ... 10-2

Because the Seahawks and 49ers would again be tied ... we move on to the next tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #5 – Strength of Victory …

Here’s where the tie would probably be broken. Two games separate the Seahawks schedule from the 49ers Schedule. Here they are …

49ers …
Week 1 – Green Bay Packers [5-4 Record] Won 34-28
Week 12 – Washington Redskins [3-6 Record]
Combined Record of Opponents … 8-10

Seahawks …
Week 11 – Minnesota Vikings [2-7 Record]
Week 15 – New York Giants [3-6 Record]
Combined Record of Opponents … 5-13

Therefore, if all that played out (and it very well could) … by virtue of the schedule the 49ers would be the ones winning the NFC West – not the Seahawks. The Hawks would end up falling clear down to the #5 Seed.

So in the end, it's probably just better to hope that the Saints end up throwing the last shovel full of dirt on the 49ers this weekend rather than giving this zombie any chance to resurrect itself.

Ook so explain to me, how on earth you could even derive a scenario with these situations when you arent factoring in the other teams records in strength of schedule... We are basing this on the notion that each of those teams that our teams playu is either A) all going to lose out, or B) all going to win out...

 

[AgentDib]

Logically I agree with most people that we should cheer for the Saints. That being said, what would your reaction be on finding out that the Saints lost? I think I would still be happy about it, so apparently I am going to be happy either way tomorrow.

 

[BlueTalon]

Logically I agree with most people that we should cheer for the Saints. That being said, what would your reaction be on finding out that the Saints lost?

I'd hate it, but I'd hate it less if the Saints beat the crap out of the digits on the field.

 

[mrblitz]

maybe the saints win this one going away, then lose 1 or 2 games to a red-hot carolina.

 

[chevelle03]

I wrote about this exact subject this past week. For those who are thinking about rooting for San Francisco this weekend, just consider this and how that win COULD affect things as far as playoff seeding is concerned ...

I've been giving this some long and hard thought ... and in the end, I would say that rooting for New Orleans would probably be the prudent move. Let me lay it out for you why ...

Let's say that the 49ers end up winning this weekend and beating the Saints. While that might make several Seahawks fans happy in the here and now, let's play this forward and explore what could happen.

The 49ers would then be 7-3 ... and the Saints would fall to 7-3 as well. A win against the Saints would mean that the 49ers would be just 2 games behind the Seahawks for the NFC West lead.

The 49ers face the Redskins (on the road) and the Rams (at home) after that. Let's project wins in those games as well ... and say that the Seahawks win the Viking game ... and the Saints beat the Falcons in Week 12 (all plausible and predictable).

Let's further say that the Seahawks end up somehow LOSING that Monday Night matchup to the Saints. That's a good Saints team, so that's entirely possible. Let's also say that a re-energized 49ers team ends up beating the Seahawks in San Francisco in Week 14 and winning out the rest of their games.

Additionally, let's also say that the Seahawks (outside of losing to the 49ers and Saints) win the rest of their games as well.

That would change the equation quite a bit. Here’s how that would look …

San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [8-3] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-3] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [1-8] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (WIN in this scenario)


Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Week 1 – at Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Win 12-7)
Week 2 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-3] (Win 29-3)
Week 3 – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 45-17)
Week 4 – at Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 23-20)
Week 5 – at Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 28-34)
Week 6 – vs. Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 20-13)
Week 7 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 34-22)
Week 8 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
Week 9 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [1-8] (Win 27-24)
Week 10 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 33-10)
Week 11—vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 12 – BYE
Week 13 – vs. New Orleans Saints [7-2] (LOSS in this scenario)
Week 14 – at San Francisco 49ers [10-3] (LOSS in this scenario)
Week 15 – at New York Giants [3-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 16 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 17 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)


Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …

In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. Like last time, we move on to the next tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

Let's say that the Seahawks and 49ers only loss in the division is to each other (i.e. each sweeps the Rams and Cardinals and is 1-1 against each other) ...

49ers … 5-1
Seahawks … 5-1

They would be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …

Again, in this scenario we’ll assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …

49ers …
Indianapolis … Loss
Rams … Win
Houston … Win
Cardinals … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
Carolina … Loss
New Orleans …Win
Rams … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Atlanta … Win
Cardinals … Win
49ers Record … 10-2

Seahawks …
Carolina … Win
Jacksonville … Win
Houston … Win
Indianapolis … Loss
Tennessee … Win
Arizona … Win
St. Louis … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Atlanta … Win
New Orleans … Loss
Arizona … Win
St. Louis … Win
Seahawks Record … 10-2

The Seahawks and 49ers would again be tied, so we would move on to the next tiebreaker ...

Tiebreaker #4 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

49ers ...
Week 1 -- Packers ... Win
Week 2 -- Seahawks ... Loss
Week 4 -- Rams ... Win
Week 6 -- Cardinals ... Win
Week 10 -- Panthers ... Loss
Week 11 -- Saints ... Win
Week 12 -- Redskins ... Win
Week 13 -- Rams ... Win
Week 14 -- Seahawks ... Win
Week 15 – Buccaneers … Win
Week 16 – Falcons … Win
Week 17 – Cardinals … Win

49ers NFC Record would be ... 10-2

Seahawks ...
Week 1 -- Panthers ... Win
Week 2 -- 49ers ... Win
Week 7 -- Cardinals ... Win
Week 8 -- Rams ... Win
Week 9 -- Buccaneers ... Win
Week 10 -- Falcons ... Win
Week 11 -- Vikings ... Win
Week 13 -- Saints ... Loss
Week 15 -- Gaints ... Win
Week 16 – Cardinals … Win
Week 17 – Rams … Win

Seahawks NFC Record would be ... 10-2

Because the Seahawks and 49ers would again be tied ... we move on to the next tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #5 – Strength of Victory …

Here’s where the tie would probably be broken. Two games separate the Seahawks schedule from the 49ers Schedule. Here they are …

49ers …
Week 1 – Green Bay Packers [5-4 Record] Won 34-28
Week 12 – Washington Redskins [3-6 Record]
Combined Record of Opponents … 8-10

Seahawks …
Week 11 – Minnesota Vikings [2-7 Record]
Week 15 – New York Giants [3-6 Record]
Combined Record of Opponents … 5-13

Therefore, if all that played out (and it very well could) … by virtue of the schedule the 49ers would be the ones winning the NFC West – not the Seahawks. The Hawks would end up falling clear down to the #5 Seed.

So in the end, it's probably just better to hope that the Saints end up throwing the last shovel full of dirt on the 49ers this weekend rather than giving this zombie any chance to resurrect itself.

Ook so explain to me, how on earth you could even derive a scenario with these situations when you arent factoring in the other teams records in strength of schedule... We are basing this on the notion that each of those teams that our teams playu is either A) all going to lose out, or B) all going to win out...

He did factor in the other team's records, but he forgot that this is SOV not SOS, so in fact our win over the Panthers would factor in as well as the Niners win against the Saints (I doubt this would change his argument).

So, besides Packers/Redskins/Saints for the Niners and Vikings/Giants/Panthers for the Seahawks, the rest of the schedule is identical, so the team records for the rest of the schedule are meaningless for the SOV tie-breaker. Since Pack/Skins/Saints are likely to have more wins than Vikes/Giants/Panthers the Niners are likely to win this tie-breaker. However, it is far from decided at this point (P/R/S have 15 wins at the moment and V/G/P have 11).

Anyway, the way I see it is as long as the Seahawks beat the Saints and Niners then this game doesn't matter. However, we are more likely to beat the Saints at home, so I will be rooting for the Saints.

 

[NorthwestSportsFan]

If the Saints win, the worst seeding we will likely get is the 2nd seed. If the 49ers win, it's possible we could get as low as the 5th seed. Go Saints, but if the 49ers win we still control our destiny. Something positive will happen today, regardless of the outcome.

 

[BlueTalons]

The key is...if the logic is that the home teams are more likely to win the round robin of games, then we would be more likely to come out ahead with a 49er loss.

We beat the Saints on MNF, then we could absorb a loss to the 49ers on a short week. That would still give us a one game lead on both with a tie breaker over both. So...go Saints.

GO HAWKS!!

 

[sutz]

@Hawkscanner: sorry, TLR.

To all you yoyos who quoted 'Scanner's post in your post, thanks for nuthin'

Frankly, I don't care who wins that game. If the 'Hawks take care of their own business it just won't matter.

:229031_shrug:

 

[Axx]

If NO wins it may very well knock the niners out of the playoffs.
i am also very confident that carolina can take a game from new orleans

 

[Johnny]

@Hawkscanner: sorry, TLR.

To all you yoyos who quoted 'Scanner's post in your post, thanks for nuthin'

Frankly, I don't care who wins that game. If the 'Hawks take care of their own business it just won't matter.

:229031_shrug:

You can't mean that, As a Hawks fan and good human being I wish for the 49ers to go 0-16 every year..

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

My way of thinking would just like to add... if the 49ers win vs the Saints both teams would be at least 7-3.

Seahawks play both of those two teams after their Bye Week. In that scenario, both teams would have to win out to get HFA.

However, I like the Seahawks chances to control their own destiny. Meaning if the Seahawks win their next 3 games, they'll be top favorites to win #1 seed after 13 games. If the Patriots beat the Panthers or just drop any game so they can't finish better than 12-4, and the Lions drop 1 game in the next 3 weeks as well... I think the Seahawks would win the NFC outright.

Meaning their last 3 games wouldn't matter, they could get players rested up, give younger players more playing time, they could save game plans and go with a vanilla playbook. Anything they want to prepare themselves a little better for the Play-Offs.

However, if the Saints win and improve to 8-2, and then they win out to finish 14-2. And Seahawks finish 14-2 Seahawks still only get the #2 seed.

I hate the 49ers as much as anybody but I'm cheering them to beat the Saints, because if both teams drop a game or two after that... its most likely over for them and it doesn't have to be strictly the Seahawks beating them.. they can lose to anybody really as long as the Seahawks finish with a better record.

If 49ers and *aints finish 12-4 but both beat the Seahawks but 'hawks finish 13-3... Seattle wins HFA most likely even if Det and Car finish 13-3. Which is unlikely to me that both teams would win out the rest of their games... I see Detriot and Carolina 12-4 teams at Best.

However, if Seahawks JUST finish 15-1... none of this really matters but with a Saints loss today 3 consecutive Seahawks win plus a Lion's loss or two in that timeframe plus a Panther's loss = #1 Seed for Seattle just after 13 games.

 

[seahawks08]

#2 seed may be better than #1 seed,specially if the 4th team in the last 4 gets hot just like how the Hawks did last year. It doesn't matter one bit who wins, we control our destiny 1 and 0 every Sunday, so I was just saying as we have explored different scenarios, so here is mine

 

[Wartooth]

I can't support the 9er's in anything, dislike so much about them, it just isn't possible.
I actually like watching Brees do his thing, and think the NFL screwed the Saints last year.
And I couldn't help noticing that the 9er's (once again) got the late game out east.
Go Saints!