Who has the better WR corps?

[Anthony!]

I know Denver fans will go apeshit over the mere thought that Seattle could possibly have a better WR corps than Denver. Afterall, Seattle's WR's are "pedestrian" and Denver's group is part of the greatest passing game in NFL history. But Denver is a pass first offense and Seattle is a run first offense so our WR's get targeted far less than Denvers do.

What if both teams had swapped WR corps and Peyton's pass first offense threw to Baldwin, Tate and Kearse while Seattle had Wilson throwing far less to Decker, D Thomas and Welker?

If Denver had our WR's:

D Thomas: 92 recs on 143 targets for 1430 yds, 14 TD's, 19 catches of 20+ yds
Doug Baldwin prorated: 97 recs on 143 targets for 1524 yds, 10 TDS, 27 catches of 20+ yds

Doug Baldwin would be on the All Pro team.

Eric Decker: 87/137, 1288 yds, 11 TD's, 19 for 20+
Jermaine Kearse: 79/137, 1247 yds, 14 TD's, 18 for 20+

Wes Welker: 73/110, 778 yds, 10 TD's, 12 of 20+
Golden Tate: 72/110, 1008 yds, 6 TD's, 13 of 20+

Denver's WR's: 252/390, 3496 yds, 35 TD's, 50 of 20+
Seattle's prorated: 248/390, 3779 yds, 30 TD's, 58 of 20+

I think our WR corps stacks up pretty well to theirs if our guys were running routes for Denver and had Peyton Manning throwing to them. You'll see that Decker, Thomas and Welker look significantly more "pedestrian" if they only get targeted as often as our guys do.

Now consider their WR's will be up against the Legion of Boom and our WR's will be up against the very week and injury depleted Broncos secondary.

I agree except it is less about Manning and more about the offense, they are a pass happy offense, I would say with Rw if we were a pass happy offense our Wr would have much better stats as would RW.

 

[davidonmi]

it's not even close. the gap between the skill of our receving corps is almost as big as the gap between our secondaries.

slow down, we may have the best secondary in NFL history at least top 5, Denver does not, the seahawks WR's and denver's sec. are both a little above average. The gap isn't that big

 

[fenderbender123]

Do these pro-rated numbers account for the diminishing returns of increased pass attempts? I would think the production would waiver a bit per attempt as opposing defenses focus more on stopping the pass.

 

[HawkWow]

Do these pro-rated numbers account for the diminishing returns of increased pass attempts? I would think the production would waiver a bit per attempt as opposing defenses focus more on stopping the pass.

SalishHawkfan posted this on page one. I am not overly familiar with the nuances of DVOA, but I am guessing it is pertinent to the question you ask. Someone correct me if I'm mistaken.

"Across the board, FO gives higher DVOA ranks to Baldwin over DThomas, Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker".

 

[Hasselbeck]

Did you just basically say Doug Baldwin is better than Demaryius Thomas?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Forget the fact that maybe our offense would throw it a bit more with a Demaryius Thomas like talent in the fold..

 

[fenderbender123]

Do these pro-rated numbers account for the diminishing returns of increased pass attempts? I would think the production would waiver a bit per attempt as opposing defenses focus more on stopping the pass.

SalishHawkfan posted this on page one. I am not overly familiar with the nuances of DVOA, but I am guessing it is pertinent to the question you ask. Someone correct me if I'm mistaken.

"Across the board, FO gives higher DVOA ranks to Baldwin over DThomas, Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker".

Ah...thanks. Yes that tells me he was using DVOA. I wasn't sure if it was just adjusted by % or not.

 

[Eldorado]

Denver by far. This thread is embarrassing.

+1

I was going to go all ape shit, but the respectful and thoughtful nature of the seahawk fan has shown brightly through. I'll go one further, the discrepancy between the safeties of the two teams is MUCH bigger than the difference in WR. But not in the Broncos favor. God I love your safeties.

 

[Scottemojo]

This is without a doubt one of the silliest things I have ever read.

Put away the crack pipe, grab pen and paper, and then chart where Payton throws his passes. Our offenses are so dissimilar in construct that comparing numbers is just insane.

I'm with Kip on this one. Get all the defensive coordinators to weigh in on this question and there is no way they would not take the Denver guys over ours.

 

[nsport]

Spiraling arguments with diminishing returns...

To boil it down, I think we can all agree that the Broncos had a statistically better 2013 than did the Seahawks receivers. I think that's a fact that nobody can dispute.

Now, can we honestly say that on a receiver-by-receiver basis that the strengths and weaknesses of each squad outweigh the other significantly?

 

[Eldorado]

Spiraling arguments with diminishing returns...



Now, can we honestly say that on a receiver-by-receiver basis that the strengths and weaknesses of each squad outweigh the other significantly?

It's either that or the QB, brah. One of the two.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

This is without a doubt one of the silliest things I have ever read.

Put away the crack pipe, grab pen and paper, and then chart where Payton throws his passes. Our offenses are so dissimilar in construct that comparing numbers is just insane.

I'm with Kip on this one. Get all the defensive coordinators to weigh in on this question and there is no way they would not take the Denver guys over ours.

But that's the point ScottE. Denver uses a different system. They throw more often so of course the WR's get more yards. Peyton throws to different areas, yes.

But DVOA measures how successful a player is per play. How often did they get a successful reception (did the 3rd down catch get a first down?) not just how many yards did they rack up. And DVOA ranks Baldwin as the #2 receiver in the NFL. He may run different routes and have a different QB throwing less often from a different system, but he's more successful than DThomas is in Denver's system. The whole point of prorating what Baldwin would do if he were thrown to as often as Denver throws the ball was to illustrate that Baldwin is actually doing more with less than DThomas is doing. The same holds true for Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker. All three of our WR's are better per play than Denver's receivers are. They get more first downs, they make more successful catches.

If Pete opened up the offense to Wilson, it wouldn't matter that our guys ran different routes than Peytons guys or threw to different areas of the field, we'd have a better corps of receivers to throw to than he does. But people look to big numbers, flashy stats. Denvers offense is sexy. Ours is smashmouth. Wilson looks like he had an awful day out there and yet he posts amazingly good numbers.

Because his receivers are actually quite amazingly good.

And while Kip may say that the defensive coordinators wouldn't pick our guys, I say that the offensive coordinators didn't pick Baldwin. He was an UDFA. Who caught the ball for Luck at Stanford. He was the second best rated WR on FO for the championship weekend behind DThomas by 1 point. And DThomas was playing catch vs NE, while Baldwin did it vs SF.

The proof's in the pudding, as they say.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Spiraling arguments with diminishing returns...

To boil it down, I think we can all agree that the Broncos had a statistically better 2013 than did the Seahawks receivers. I think that's a fact that nobody can dispute.

Now, can we honestly say that on a receiver-by-receiver basis that the strengths and weaknesses of each squad outweigh the other significantly?

Uh. Yes. Resoundingly yes.

Demaryius alone is better than anyone on our roster. Decker alone is probably better than Baldwin, Kearse and Tate. Welker... this is where I'd say it becomes more even, but thats only because of his medical history and age. Julius Thomas is a better TE than Miller/Willson/McCoy/Davis by a substantial margin.

Peyton is putting up these gaudy numbers because 1) He's an amazing QB and 2) He has amazing weapons. There are reasons why Tom Brady didn't do the same thing with far inferior talents.

Not to mention.. if you're trying to say our WR's are equal to theirs.. then you're diminishing Russell Wilson's abilities and saying that he's holding this offense back.. of which is very very far from the truth.

In sum.. this whole thread is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read on .NET. It would be like a Broncos fan trying to skew the numbers to say their secondary is on par with ours.

 

[Hasselbeck]

This is without a doubt one of the silliest things I have ever read.

Put away the crack pipe, grab pen and paper, and then chart where Payton throws his passes. Our offenses are so dissimilar in construct that comparing numbers is just insane.

I'm with Kip on this one. Get all the defensive coordinators to weigh in on this question and there is no way they would not take the Denver guys over ours.

But that's the point ScottE. Denver uses a different system. They throw more often so of course the WR's get more yards. Peyton throws to different areas, yes.

But DVOA measures how successful a player is per play. How often did they get a successful reception (did the 3rd down catch get a first down?) not just how many yards did they rack up. And DVOA ranks Baldwin as the #2 receiver in the NFL. He may run different routes and have a different QB throwing less often from a different system, but he's more successful than DThomas is in Denver's system. The whole point of prorating what Baldwin would do if he were thrown to as often as Denver throws the ball was to illustrate that Baldwin is actually doing more with less than DThomas is doing. The same holds true for Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker. All three of our WR's are better per play than Denver's receivers are. They get more first downs, they make more successful catches.

If Pete opened up the offense to Wilson, it wouldn't matter that our guys ran different routes than Peytons guys or threw to different areas of the field, we'd have a better corps of receivers to throw to than he does. But people look to big numbers, flashy stats. Denvers offense is sexy. Ours is smashmouth. Wilson looks like he had an awful day out there and yet he posts amazingly good numbers.

Because his receivers are actually quite amazingly good.

Stop. Just stop.

Denver throws as much as they do because they have the personnel for it. We run as much as we do because we have the personnel for it. If we came out and threw it 30-40 times a game, we would not be 15-3.. our personnel doesn't fit that brand of play.

If we had a Demaryius Thomas to throw to and a Welker/Decker/J. Thomas/etc... we would probably put the ball in the air a bit more. As such, we do not.. and while I love Baldwin and Kearse and Tate.. comparing the two trios is unbelievably laughable. There is no comparison. Denver had the best offense in league history BECAUSE of these weapons... not because of titled play calling.

 

[Zebulon Dak]

This is so dumb. Our WR's are CLEARLY better.

 

[DavidSeven]

Not to mention.. if you're trying to say our WR's are equal to theirs.. then you're diminishing Russell Wilson's abilities and saying that he's holding this offense back.. of which is very very far from the truth.

Just playing devil's advocate here... no one is knocking Russell. The point being made is based on a Manning-led offense vs. a conservative, run-first offense. That's strictly about philosophy. Of course, being considered inferior to Peyton isn't really a knock on anyone anyway.

I disagree that we would throw more with D. Thomas on our team. We've made it a philosophical point to run the ball often. That didn't change when we went from T. Jack to Russell. Why would it change if we got another receiver? In both games that Percy played this season, Russell threw the ball 18 times (season low). Of course, there were other factors involved, but it does demonstrate that we don't change the essence of this team to accommodate any single player.

 

[HawkWow]

Did you just basically say Doug Baldwin is better than Demaryius Thomas?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

No, I was quoting another poster re: DVOA, while trying to assist someone that asked.

Glad you got such a kick out of it, though.

 

[Scottemojo]

This is without a doubt one of the silliest things I have ever read.

Put away the crack pipe, grab pen and paper, and then chart where Payton throws his passes. Our offenses are so dissimilar in construct that comparing numbers is just insane.

I'm with Kip on this one. Get all the defensive coordinators to weigh in on this question and there is no way they would not take the Denver guys over ours.

But that's the point ScottE. Denver uses a different system. They throw more often so of course the WR's get more yards. Peyton throws to different areas, yes.

But DVOA measures how successful a player is per play. How often did they get a successful reception (did the 3rd down catch get a first down?) not just how many yards did they rack up. And DVOA ranks Baldwin as the #2 receiver in the NFL. He may run different routes and have a different QB throwing less often from a different system, but he's more successful than DThomas is in Denver's system. The whole point of prorating what Baldwin would do if he were thrown to as often as Denver throws the ball was to illustrate that Baldwin is actually doing more with less than DThomas is doing. The same holds true for Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker. All three of our WR's are better per play than Denver's receivers are. They get more first downs, they make more successful catches.

If Pete opened up the offense to Wilson, it wouldn't matter that our guys ran different routes than Peytons guys or threw to different areas of the field, we'd have a better corps of receivers to throw to than he does. But people look to big numbers, flashy stats. Denvers offense is sexy. Ours is smashmouth. Wilson looks like he had an awful day out there and yet he posts amazingly good numbers.

Because his receivers are actually quite amazingly good.

And while Kip may say that the defensive coordinators wouldn't pick our guys, I say that the offensive coordinators didn't pick Baldwin. He was an UDFA. Who caught the ball for Luck at Stanford. He was the second best rated WR on FO for the championship weekend behind DThomas by 1 point. And DThomas was playing catch vs NE, while Baldwin did it vs SF.

The proof's in the pudding, as they say.

Respectfully, BS.
If Baldwin is the 2nd best receiver in the NFL, like you are contending, then Pete is a moron for having him third on the depth chart to start the year.

Payton throws 85 percent of his passes inside of 10 yards. Most inside of 6 yards. I bet if you charted Baldwin's average target, it would be 10 plus. Our offensive system puts him in space, pure and simple.

While I appreciate DVOA for what it is, it doesn't measure how often a guy wasn't targeted because he was covered or got no separation. It doesn't measure his blocking, it doesn't measure his ability to draw double coverage, and it doesn't measure if his quarterback got sacked because he ran the wrong route. It is incomplete.

You can use numbers all day to say he is the best damn WR on the planet, nobody, and I mean nobody, except maybe a soccer coach, would take Baldwin ahead of Thomas.

 

[davidonmi]

This is without a doubt one of the silliest things I have ever read.

Put away the crack pipe, grab pen and paper, and then chart where Payton throws his passes. Our offenses are so dissimilar in construct that comparing numbers is just insane.

I'm with Kip on this one. Get all the defensive coordinators to weigh in on this question and there is no way they would not take the Denver guys over ours.

exactly the discrepancy isn't as large as one might think, but seriously.
I like our WR's but denver's are really good.
I don't care if u have peyton manning, u still need great wr's to be this prolific.
Tom Brady doesn't have that season in 2007 without randy moss

 

[Scottemojo]

To be fair, Denver's receivers were considered "just guys" and "pedestrian" (or at least very green) before Manning showed up. Thomas was a late 1st-rounder and often injured his first two seasons. Decker was a 3rd rounder and hadn't done much statistically. They have good size, ok speed. Of course, the things they've learned from Manning are real and will now carry over to other QBs/systems. However, in terms of raw ability (before Manning), were they head and shoulders above where Tate and Baldwin are in a run-heavy offense? I would say no. It's also easy to see that Tate and Baldwin would catch for over 1,000 yards in Denver's system. They're at 800-900 in an offense that never passes.

Welker was not there, Thomas was young, the tight end was still in college, and my ace in the hole, they had Tebow throwing to them. If Tebow is your QB, you might as well be a left tackle playing WR.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Umm, Denver. Definitely. That being said, our WR corps is underrated by about 98% of non-Seahawks fans around the nation. We don't pass much and we telegraph with a friggin' bullhorn when we do with our 5th-grade-level formations.

If we come out passing, I think we can surprise the hell out of the Broncos defense. I hope we do.