Which Team Proposes The Biggest Challenge To Our RePETE?

[WilsonMVP]

Patriots, with a healthy Gronk.

But that wasn't an option, so i'll go with Cowboys because of that run game and beastly O-Line. The good news is if we play them they will have had to go through DET, at Lambeau before facing us so I still like the Seahawks chances as they will be pretty beat up and worn out by that point.

I was going to say this..the Pats.

 

[Cyrus12]

1. Packers (If Rodgers is healthy)

2. Cowboys

3. Lions

4. Panthers

5. Cardinals

this^

 

[AbsolutNET]

Dallas is by far the hottest team out there, especially offensively. Part of me wants Detroit to win just to knock them out, but I'd much rather have Carolina or Arizona come to Seattle for the Divisional game.

 

[dumbrabbit]

If injuries was a choice, I'd choose that.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I am going to have roll with the Cowboys they have that OL, Murray, Dez, and Romo all of which can be the best at their positions when they're on. It's making me puke already that the media is already spinning them as "The Triplets 2". I believe we beat them by 10 this time though because we will be healthy and they are the one's to be banged up this time around.

I can't wait to see them up against Green Bay in Lambeau it should be epic and I won't be surprised at all if Dallas takes them out. Though Green Bay is always a danger with Aaron Rodgers and like Dallas they have finally figured out that to win you must run and Eddie Lacy is a load.

Now if we are talking Superbowl it would be in order...

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Denver

 

[MidwestHawker]

Dallas is by far the hottest team out there, especially offensively. Part of me wants Detroit to win just to knock them out, but I'd much rather have Carolina or Arizona come to Seattle for the Divisional game.

I agree with this, which is the consolation I'll take if Detroit wins on Sunday. Them winning creates a tougher divisional round matchup, but might create a softer hypothetical NFCCG.

 

[jacobsod]

Dallas by far methinks. Like others have mentioned, their strong O Line is the best counter to our defense. Still think we win, though. The Clink is gonna be rockin'!

Once we make it to the big dance, I don't see any of the AFC teams as a real threat. Other than the officiating. Been there, done that...grrr.

 

[Erebus]

I had a long post written detailing each team's chances of winning each game and their chance (in percentage) of facing us at some point in the playoffs. However, it was too nerdy, so I'll spare you all the boring details and skip right ahead to the outcome.

Here's my estimation of each team's chances of facing us in the divisional round:
Detroit - 45%
Carolina - 35%
Arizona - 20%

And for the NFCCG (assuming we get there):
Green Bay - 78%
Dallas - 18% (they have to get past GB first)
Carolina - 2%
Arizona - 2%

Statistically, Dallas doesn't have a great shot of reaching the NFCCG. Therefore, the team I worry about the most is the Lions, because they have the d-line to stop our offense, which has been the blueprint to beat us. Dallas would be our biggest matchup problem, but Detroit is the team most likely to knock us out (which still isn't likely).

 

[MidwestHawker]

I had a long post written detailing each team's chances of winning each game and their chance (in percentage) of facing us at some point in the playoffs. However, it was too nerdy, so I'll spare you all the boring details and skip right ahead to the outcome.

Here's my estimation of each team's chances of facing us in the divisional round:
Detroit - 45%
Carolina - 35%
Arizona - 20%

And for the NFCCG (assuming we get there):
Green Bay - 78%
Dallas - 18% (they have to get past GB first)
Carolina - 2%
Arizona - 2%

Statistically, Dallas doesn't have a great shot of reaching the NFCCG. Therefore, the team I worry about the most is the Lions, because they have the d-line to stop our offense, which has been the blueprint to beat us. Dallas would be our biggest matchup problem, but Detroit is the team most likely to knock us out (which still isn't likely).

Don't spare us nerdiness; we need more nerdy conversation here. Seriously.

For what it's worth, these are the percentages the betting market would assign to our likelihood of opponent in the divisional round:
Carolina - 52%
Detroit - 24%
Arizona - 24%

7-point favorites win at a 76% clip historically, so that's where I get the number for Dallas's win expectation. 4.5-point favorites win at a 68% clip historically, so I plugged that in for Carolina.

 

[Erebus]

Don't spare us nerdiness; we need more nerdy conversation here. Seriously.

For what it's worth, these are the percentages the betting market would assign to our likelihood of opponent in the divisional round:
Carolina - 52%
Detroit - 24%
Arizona - 24%

7-point favorites win at a 76% clip historically, so that's where I get the number for Dallas's win expectation. 4.5-point favorites win at a 68% clip historically, so I plugged that in for Carolina.

I don't really trust the betting market, but it's something I should've considered. I estimate the Cowboys have a 55% chance of beating the Lions. The Lions, IMO, match up fairly well with the Cowboys. They have the d-line (with Suh) to shut down Dallas's run game and some ball-hawking safeties to capitalize on Romo's mistakes. Their run defense was the best in the league this year by a considerable margin. The Cowboys defense is average, and I think Detroit will be able to score enough points on them to at least make it a close game. The Lions should have a lot of success passing on Dallas's 22nd ranked (per DVOA) pass defense.

However, I still give the edge to Dallas simply because it's a matchup of two QBs most people wouldn't trust in a playoff game, but Romo has more experience. The Cowboys were mediocre at home, but Stafford has never beaten a winning team on the road. The Stafford factor, along with the chance that Suh will be suspended, tips the scale in favor of the Cowboys, but not significantly.

Dallas then has a 55% chance of going to Green Bay and a 45% chance of staying home to watch the rest of the playoffs on TV. I only give them a 33% chance of beating the Packers in Green Bay, although that may be a little low. They are more physical than the Packers, but like I said about Detroit passing on Dallas (22nd ranked pass defense per DVOA), Green Bay should have a ton of success throwing on them. Rodgers is nearly invincible at home.

So you take that 55% chance of advancing to GB, then multiplying it by their chance of winning (33%) and you get about an 18% chance of advancing to the NFCCG. My math may be off a little, which is another reason I decided to spare everyone the boring details at first. Football Outsiders disagrees with me and gives the Cowboys a 28.6% chance of reaching the NFCCG. Still, that means it's not likely, and that's the only time we can face them.

If Detroit has a 45% chance to beat Dallas (debatable), that leaves the other 55% of our likely divisional-round matchup to be split between the Panthers and Cardinals. The 68% clip for Carolina is right about where I estimated their chances of winning to be (I had 64%).

Green Bay has a 36% chance of advancing by beating Dallas (55% chance to face them times a 67% chance to win) and another 44% chance of advancing by playing Carolina or Arizona. I give the Panthers and Cards about a combined 1% chance of beating the Packers.

The bottom line is that the Cowboys just aren't very likely to reach the NFCCG, so there's no point in worrying about them now. If they beat the Packers, then worry, because that would be very impressive.

 

[MidwestHawker]

I don't really trust the betting market,

I'm curious as to why?

(I did read the rest of your post, for what it's worth; just snipped it for quoting purposes.)

 

[Erebus]

I don't really trust the betting market,

I'm curious as to why?

(I did read the rest of your post, for what it's worth; just snipped it for quoting purposes.)

Because it's based on public perception.

 

[MidwestHawker]

I don't really trust the betting market,

I'm curious as to why?

(I did read the rest of your post, for what it's worth; just snipped it for quoting purposes.)

Because it's based on public perception.

Well, sort of; it's based primarily on the perception of professional gamblers making business decisions and bookmakers responding by moving the line to an optimal spot. Obviously given that these are people making objective, cold-blooded judgments, shouldn't their crowd-sourced perception carry more weight than any one individual fan's?

And doesn't the fact that there's been a direct correlation between the size of a point spread and the long-term historical win rate of favorites lend significant credibility to the betting market's overall accuracy?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Obviously given that these are people making objective, cold-blooded judgments, shouldn't their crowd-sourced perception carry more weight than any one individual fan's?

Bingo.

If you're going to trust one source for predicting sports, it's Vegas. It's the ONLY sports prediction based on cold hard statistics because the almighty dollar is at stake, others use emotion, bias and personal opinions.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Obviously given that these are people making objective, cold-blooded judgments, shouldn't their crowd-sourced perception carry more weight than any one individual fan's?

Bingo.

If you're going to trust one source for predicting sports, it's Vegas. It's the ONLY sports prediction based on cold hard statistics because the almighty dollar is at stake, others use emotion, bias and personal opinions.

Well, plenty of dollars are bet on emotion, just not from the sharps, where most of the $$$ originates.

 

[mikeak]

I think Dallas will be the biggest obstacle next year to our TRE-PETE