What's With the Niner Love?

[Polaris]

Huh? How can you say this game's meaningless for the Niners?

I said "nearly" meaningless from a playoff perspective, and it is.

1. They still have a chance to win the division if they win.

The chance of them winning the division is about 2% at this point. At best you increase this to 10%. Seattle has to be the overwhelming favorite to win any home game at this point and both the Giants and Rams have losing records. The odds that Seattle doesn't win two of these is miniscule and completely outside Niner control.

2. They can assure themselves a playoff spot with a win.

No they can't.

3. Intangibles: If they win they keep their momentum AND gain a ton of confidence towards thinking they can beat the Hawks come playoff time.

I wasn't talking about intangibles. I was talking about the notion that this game from a playoff perspective was more important. It's flatly untrue. Seattle has specific and important things it can clinch with a win. San Fran does not.

If they lose they're back to fighting with the Saints, Panthers, Cowboys, Eagles, Cards and even Bears for the two wildcard seeds. Don't fool yourself, this game means EVERYTHING to the Niners.

No. San Fran loses the tie break with the Panthers anyway (and with New Orleans) so those teams (whichever one loses) is still ahead of San Fran even if San Fran wins.

However, San Fran with 8 current wins still beats out all the 7-5 teams for a variety of reasons that I've already explained, and have three creampuffs to finish the season. Having one more win doesn't change this at all.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Btw, to all the people saying this game doesn't matter to the Niners, let's flip the script.

Did we say last years game against the Niners at home didn't matter even though our playoff position was solid and the chance of winning the division was slight? Hell no, this was our hated division rival. We wanted to crush them, destroy them.

Pride is everything in this rivalry, just like the Rams always give us a good fight. The Niners are going to bring everything they got. Count on it.

 

[Polaris]

Btw, to all the people saying this game doesn't matter to the Niners, let's flip the script.

Did we say last years game against the Niners at home didn't matter even though our playoff position was solid and the chance of winning the division was slight? Hell no, this was our hated division rival. We wanted to crush them, destroy them.

Pride is everything in this rivalry, just like the Rams always give us a good fight. The Niners are going to bring everything they got. Count on it.

I didn't say "It didn't matter". I said that from a playoff perspective it didn't really matter for the Niners.

As for last season let's look at it:

Coming into the game, the Niners just won against the odds at New England (in hindsight had San Fran lost that game...which they nearly did....they WOULD have lost the division last year and Seattle WOULD have been the number two seed). Seattle was a game and a half back with two to play. However, it wasn't totally inconceivable for the Niners to drop a game. Also at that time BOTH Seattle and the Niners had playoff berths locked. Also the game was being played AT Seattle and with a green QB from the San Fran side (yes Kaep was technically a second year player but he was green as grass then).

This is very different. I am not saying that San Fran won't be motivated, but saying they have more on the line is simply not the truth.

Seattle has a Division Crown and a first round bye right now riding on this. San Fran has nothing (not even a playoff bearth) riding on this. Truth is truth.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Seattle has a Division Crown and a first round bye right now riding on this. San Fran has nothing (not even a playoff bearth) riding on this. Truth is truth.

And I'm saying these are two VERY prideful teams, and what's at stake for division, playoff seeding, etc takes a far back seat to just wanting to prove who's the bigger bully.

I expect an ol' fashioned street fight on Sunday.

 

[Polaris]

Seattle has a Division Crown and a first round bye right now riding on this. San Fran has nothing (not even a playoff bearth) riding on this. Truth is truth.

And I'm saying these are two VERY prideful teams, and what's at stake for division, playoff seeding, etc takes a far back seat to just wanting to prove who's the bigger bully.

I expect an ol' fashioned street fight on Sunday.

No disagreement there. In fact I am counting on it. I also think if it comes to a street fight of a game, that Seattle can outphysical San Fran (and boy isn't that a switch from the old Holmgren teams!) All I was trying to do was to puncture the notion that the Niners need this game more in order to make the playoffs.

 

[Polaris]

Then add to this that it is while not a must win it is a really need to win for the 49ers. They are not secure in that WC spot. They simply have more to play for than the Hawks do

San Fran is almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed no matter what happens. Likewise the chance of them winning the division is minute at best no matter what happens.

[This Sunday I mean.]

Why? San Fran plays three cream puffs after Seattle (and San Fran has been very good at beating teams they *should* beat). That makes an 11-5 record at the end of the season virtually assured. Only the Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, and Cardinals could possibly catch that.

If the Lions do, they win the NFCN anyway so they're out. The Cowboys and Eagles play each other and if the winner goes 11-5 they win the NFCE so they're out and the loser is no better than 10-6 so their out.

That leaves the Cardinals, but they have to play Seattle in Seattle before facing the Niners so so they are pretty much out too.

Virtually none of this analysis changes if they win or lose this Sunday. San Fran clinches NOTHING nor is put in any particular jeapordy if they lose this Sunday.

By contrast Seattle can win both the Divison and a first round bye outright with a win.

 

[formido]

There are many reasons for this:

1. The Hawks can't win on the road (fallacy but that's still the perception even though we're 5-1)

Betting odds take into consideration a much longer track record than the current year.

Not sure why some of you guys are so bent out of shape over this line, it's perfectly normal when two good teams play the home team will be favored by a small margin, especially within the division. Sure this is a very good Hawks team, but the fact remains our track record for winning in SF is not so good.........thus the line.

Oh, the line is normal, because it's normally wrong when it comes to the Seahawks. Vegas consistently underrates Seattle. Seattle was 11-5 against the spread last year, best in the NFL. This year they're 8-4.

Seattle is indisputably much better than San Francisco and home field doesn't adjust enough to overcome that. This line must be right for balancing money on the game, but it's very off for predictive purposes.

As always, that doesn't guarantee Seattle will win. There's a lot of luck in football, like Unger recovering Lynch's fumble and Coleman getting a deflected TD. Seattle was clearly much better than New Orleans, but the score could have been closer. Nevertheless, Seattle is easily the favorite in this game and wins it at least 3/5 times.

 

[Mindsink]

If the 49ers win, it opens the door for a lot of scary possibilities, including the Seahawks losing the NFC West, AND the 49ers earning the #1 seed.

If the 49ers win, the the Seahawks MUST win two of their last three games, or we can potentially get the #5 seed, IF we lose to either ARZ or STL.

This is assuming the 49ers win their last three games, which they should.

 

[Uncle Si]

Well.. they did represent the NFC in the SB last season. They have won the NFCW the past two seasons and are currently 8-4 so it is understandable that some perceive them as a good team. We are playing extremely well, but we are playing our rival in their house.

not to mention building up the "Seahawks destroy everyone" theme doesnt add any anticipation to the game.

now, painting the 9ers as competition to the bullies from Seattle (thats what we are people)... thats a good story line

 

[jlwaters1]

Well.. they did represent the NFC in the SB last season. They have won the NFCW the past two seasons and are currently 8-4 so it is understandable that some perceive them as a good team. We are playing extremely well, but we are playing our rival in their house.

There house means very little, they got destroyed by INDY at home and looked completely incompetent against CAR good defense. IMO there's very little to fear about going to Candlestick Park.

 

[Polaris]

If the 49ers win, it opens the door for a lot of scary possibilities, including the Seahawks losing the NFC West, AND the 49ers earning the #1 seed.

If the 49ers win, the the Seahawks MUST win two of their last three games, or we can potentially get the #5 seed, IF we lose to either ARZ or STL.

This is assuming the 49ers win their last three games, which they should.

All those are low order possibilities, but all this proves is that Seattle needs this game more because this game allows Seattle to CLINCH right now. My contention was and is that from a playoff perspective, this game means a lot to Seattle but actually quite little for the Niners.

Consider from the Niner perspective if they do win (which I don't think they will):

You have to assume (as a Niner fan) that Seattle will beat the Giants especially since the Giants are likely out of any playoff contention then.

Then Seattle gets both Arizona and St Louis at home and Seattle doesn't lose at home, and Seattle would only need to win ONE of these.

That's pretty crummy odds if you look at them with Niner eyes.

 

[Polaris]

Well.. they did represent the NFC in the SB last season. They have won the NFCW the past two seasons and are currently 8-4 so it is understandable that some perceive them as a good team. We are playing extremely well, but we are playing our rival in their house.

There house means very little, they got destroyed by INDY at home and looked completely incompetent against CAR good defense. IMO there's very little to fear about going to Candlestick Park.

They also didn't exactly blow the doors down at least offensively against the Rams. The SF Defense was stifling, yes, but it was a close game all the way until the middle of the fourth qtr.

 

[kobebryant]

From a bettor perspective there are a lot of trend and formulas that the "sharps" use that point to the 49ers being favored.

When two good teams play emotion then becomes a huge determining factor. Now, this Hawks team hasn't been known to have any let downs but the 49ers are still in a wild card race, while the Seahawks would have to stumble badly down the stretch to give up HFA. The 49ers need it more. The 49ers have been embarassed by the Hawks in two straight games. The Hawks are coming off a huge meaningful victory.

As much as the Hawks consistently go all out and play with great emotion it will still be hard to match the 49ers "want to" and "need to" in this game. If the 49ers win it would mean so much to them, if the Hawks lose it will mean very little to the Hawks.

 

[Polaris]

From a bettor perspective there are a lot of trend and formulas that the "sharps" use that point to the 49ers being favored.

When two good teams play emotion then becomes a huge determining factor. Now, this Hawks team hasn't been known to have any let downs but the 49ers are still in a wild card race, while the Seahawks would have to stumble badly down the stretch to give up HFA. The 49ers need it more. The 49ers have been embarassed by the Hawks in two straight games. The Hawks are coming off a huge meaningful victory.

As much as the Hawks consistently go all out and play with great emotion it will still be hard to match the 49ers "want to" and "need to" in this game. If the 49ers win it would mean so much to them, if the Hawks lose it will mean very little to the Hawks.

Except the Niners DON'T need it more. Seattle does because Seattle can clinch right now (well not HFA but everything else including the division). San Fran can't clinch anything but they also aren't in any jeapordy either.

 

[Mindsink]

I agree, the Seahawks have more at stake in this game than the 49ers do.

 

[ZagHawk]

Our Seahawks just got done putting the BEAT DOWN on the Saints this last Monday. Seattle has never looked better. While San Fran did look better with Crabtree back, and Kaep did play better, they weren't tremendous (the Rams were in that game until Fischer went for it with 9 minutes to go keep in his own end...and it was a fourth and 8 ).

So what gives? It's not just Vegas, but a lot fo the talking heads seem to think that somehow the Niners are somehow beat the team that is better than they are. Don't they have EYES?

If you pull the hawk glasses off, you can understand where they are coming from. It's two quality teams, Seahawks as good as we look are playing on the road, The niners and their fans will be fired up, and the Niners need this win so much more badly than the Hawks. I don't like it, but I understand. I also think we're able to win this game, and should. I think the only silver lining to IF we lose this game, is if we meet SF in the playoffs, probability of beating a good team 2/3 times is much greater than 3/3 times. That would be the only silver lining. However, beating the Niners at the Stick may be the only thing to shut the Niners up with the whole "beat us at home" thing.

 

[Polaris]

Our Seahawks just got done putting the BEAT DOWN on the Saints this last Monday. Seattle has never looked better. While San Fran did look better with Crabtree back, and Kaep did play better, they weren't tremendous (the Rams were in that game until Fischer went for it with 9 minutes to go keep in his own end...and it was a fourth and 8 ).

So what gives? It's not just Vegas, but a lot fo the talking heads seem to think that somehow the Niners are somehow beat the team that is better than they are. Don't they have EYES?

If you pull the hawk glasses off, you can understand where they are coming from. It's two quality teams, Seahawks as good as we look are playing on the road, The niners and their fans will be fired up, and the Niners need this win so much more badly than the Hawks. I don't like it, but I understand. I also think we're able to win this game, and should. I think the only silver lining to IF we lose this game, is if we meet SF in the playoffs, probability of beating a good team 2/3 times is much greater than 3/3 times. That would be the only silver lining. However, beating the Niners at the Stick may be the only thing to shut the Niners up with the whole "beat us at home" thing.

I don't buy the 2/3 vs 3/3 thing. I treat each contest as an approximately stochiastically independant event (a fancy term meaning that one event doesn't affect a future event). Either we are better than the Niners (which I believe) or we are not. I fully expect that if (likely when) we face the Niners at the Clink in the playoffs, we'll beat them no matter what happens here.

 

[Uncle Si]

If the 49ers win, it opens the door for a lot of scary possibilities, including the Seahawks losing the NFC West, AND the 49ers earning the #1 seed.

If the 49ers win, the the Seahawks MUST win two of their last three games, or we can potentially get the #5 seed, IF we lose to either ARZ or STL.

This is assuming the 49ers win their last three games, which they should.

All those are low order possibilities, but all this proves is that Seattle needs this game more because this game allows Seattle to CLINCH right now. My contention was and is that from a playoff perspective, this game means a lot to Seattle but actually quite little for the Niners.

Consider from the Niner perspective if they do win (which I don't think they will):

You have to assume (as a Niner fan) that Seattle will beat the Giants especially since the Giants are likely out of any playoff contention then.

Then Seattle gets both Arizona and St Louis at home and Seattle doesn't lose at home, and Seattle would only need to win ONE of these.

That's pretty crummy odds if you look at them with Niner eyes.

agreed here... the NFC West is done. Seattle is playing for HFA. SF is playing to get into the playoffs. The drama here is not competition with each other (although the two teams pure disdain for each other makes a great story line, and SF does need to prove it can atleast play with Seattle) but more what a win or loss means to each team outside the NFC west race.

 

[Mindsink]

...the Niners need this win so much more badly than the Hawks.

I think we just got done proving that the opposite is true.

I think the only silver lining to IF we lose this game, is if we meet SF in the playoffs, probability of beating a good team 2/3 times is much greater than 3/3 times. That would be the only silver lining. However, beating the Niners at the Stick may be the only thing to shut the Niners up with the whole "beat us at home" thing.

Historically, a team that won both regular season meetings, will sweep that team (in the playoffs) about two-thirds (67%) of the time.

 

[Mindsink]

I don't buy the 2/3 vs 3/3 thing. I treat each contest as an approximately stochiastically independant event (a fancy term meaning that one event doesn't affect a future event). Either we are better than the Niners (which I believe) or we are not. I fully expect that if (likely when) we face the Niners at the Clink in the playoffs, we'll beat them no matter what happens here.

The people who tout this idea (particularly in sports media) don't have a proper grasp of probability. It's the same type of people who think the next spin on the roulette wheel will land red just because it landed on black 10 times in a row.

In the context of sports, it's even less true, because if you sweep a team (home & away), it indicates that one of the teams is clearly better. In the third matchup, if all things are equal, the better team will have a higher chance of winning.