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Lambs to the Slaughter …
Week 8: Seahawks vs. Rams Game Preview …
Expectations … expectations … expectations. Both the Seahawks and the Rams had high expectations coming in to this season. While visions of the Super Bowl danced in the heads of the Seahawks and their fans this offseason … the Rams and their fans honestly believed that they challenge for the NFC West as well. And why not, given a new gritty coach in Jeff Fisher who had his team playing some pretty incredible football towards the end of last season? After all, they not only beat the Seahawks … they also beat teams like the 49ers … the Bears … the Lions … Green Bay … and New England as well. Armed with Sam Bradford, a hungry and talented young defense, 2 marquee free agent signings (LT Jake Long and TE Jared Cook), and a stockpile of draft choices that some called one of the very best hauls of the entire 2013 NFL Draft, it’s hard to argue with that assessment. But the best laid plans sometimes go awry. While the Rams are reeling … the Seahawks are surging. Can the Rams rise up and head butt the Hawks on Monday Night … or will it be as a lamb to the slaughter? Let’s take a closer look at who the 2013 Rams have been …
Rams 2013 Passing Offense …
If you simply take a look at the offensive passing statistics from the Rams thus far this season, you will find the following …
Passing Attempts …
Rams … 267 (tied for 8th Most)
Seahawks … 195 (4th Least in NFL)
Passing Yards/Game …
Rams … 228.1 (18th in NFL)
Seahawks … 214.1 (25th in NFL)
Passing Completion% …
Rams … 60.3 (18th in NFL)
Seahawks … 62.6% (13th in NFL)
Avg. Yards/Pass …
Rams … 6.4 (7th Fewest Yards/Pass)
Seahawks … 8.3 (tied for 4th Highest)
Passes of 20 Yards+ Completed …
Rams … 19 (tied for 22nd in NFL)
Seahawks … 26 (tied for 8th Most)
Passing TD’s …
Rams … 14 (tied for 5th Most)
Seahawks … 12 (10th Most)
Interceptions Thrown …
Rams … 4 (tied for 4th Fewest)
Seahawks … 4 (tied for 4th Fewest)
QB Rating …
Rams … 90.2 (14th in NFL)
Seahawks … 100.8 (7th Best in NFL)
As was the case last season, the Rams like to PASS the majority of the time they are on offense.
Rams Offense
Passing Attempts … 267 (63.3% of Offense)
Rushing Attempts … 155 (36.7% of Offense)
Total Attempts … 422
Up until this point, over 60% of the Rams’ Offense has come via the pass. That WAS the Rams Offense – until last Sunday when starting QB Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the Carolina Panthers game.
That means the hopes of the Rams for the remainder of this season hang on Kellen Clemens – a 30 year old career backup from Oregon who outside of helping power the 2007 Jets to a 4-12 record, really hasn’t done anything of any significance over the course of his 8 year career in the NFL. For those who are curious, here are Clemens’s career stats …
[tdo=9]Kellen Clemens’s Career Passing Statistics[/tdo]
Unlike Seattle’s Clemons, St. Louis’s Clemens has been decidedly mediocre at best throughout his career – which is why desperate times often call for desperate measures. So great is the organization’s confidence in Clemens that Rams GM Les Snead picked up the phone and called agent Buzz Cook and inquired not only about free agent Austin Davis … but also Brett Favre. Brett Favre? You mean the same Brett Favre who hasn’t strapped on a helmet in 3 years … had biceps surgery when he was 40 to duct tape his arm back together … and looks to be now dealing with memory loss? Yep. And nope.
So, the Rams turned to their next best option for a back-up – former Seahawk camp fodder Brady Quinn. Ahhh … you can never have enough single read pick-6 QB’s I suppose.
IF Kellen Clemens actually has time to throw the ball, he has several playmakers who can cause some damage. Here are the numbers from the Rams top receiving targets thus far this season …
[tdo=9](2013) Rams Top Receiving Targets[/tdo]
Receivers such as Jared Cook, Brian Quick, Chris Givens, and rookie sensation Tavon Austin (who can run the 40 yard dash in 4.34 seconds) are capable of giving opposing secondaries fits if given a quarterback who can make plays and avoid mistakes. What’s interesting to note though from the passing numbers above … is that though over 60% of the Rams this year has come via the pass, their overall productivity in the passing game is actually fairly comparable to Seattle’s. Despite the fact that the Seahawks don’t pass nearly as much as the Rams have, the numbers they have put up compare very favorably with those of the St. Louis passing attack.
And those numbers above are obviously WITH Sam Bradford at the helm. What exactly can we expect from Clemens? I’d say a large part of that has to do with the war in the trenches. The Rams spent a lot of money in the offseason, bringing in Jake Long in an attempt to re-vamp that Offensive Line. How have they done thus far this year?
QB Hits Allowed …
Rams … 38 (tied for 13th Most in the NFL)
Seahawks … 40 (9th Most in the NFL)
Sacks Allowed …
Rams … 18 (tied for 14th Most in the NFL)
Seahawks … 20 (tied for 9th Most in the NFL)
Although Football Outsiders has the Rams Offensive Line ranked 10th Best overall in term of pass protection … and ProFootball Focus has them ranked 6th Best overall, it’s interesting to note that they have allowed virtually the exact same numbers of sacks and hits on the quarterback as Seattle’s makeshift line. Jake Long (6’7” 322 Pounds) and Scott Wells (6’2” 302 Pounds) are admittedly studs … but the man they’ll be protecting on Sunday doesn’t have nearly the mobility or pocket presence Bradford has … and hasn’t started a game since 2011. The Seahawks defense, on the other hand, looks to be coming on strong, as they are coming off a 7 sack performance against the Cardinals. Clemens better move faster than the Jumping Frog of Caliveras County … or he’s going to get squished like Frogger by the Seahawks Front 7.
Given the circumstances, I’d expect Brian Schottenheimer (the Rams Offensive Coordinator) to adjust the game plan a bit on Monday night and RUN the ball more. How have they done in that department? Let’s take a look …
Rams 2013 Rushing Offense …
[tdo=3]Rams vs. Seahawks RUSH Offense Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)[/tdo]
As mentioned above, the Rams (up until this point) have run the ball only 36.7% of the time. They are among the bottom leaders in terms of Yards/Game … number of Rushing 1st Downs … TD’s … and so on, which is to be expected.
However, 2 statistics above really stand out -- they are also right at the bottom in Average Yards/Rush (only 3.2 per rush) … and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (30.9%). So even in those times that they’ve chosen to run the ball … and needed to run the ball … they aren’t all that effective.
RB Zac Stacy (5’8” 224 Pounds), this year’s 5th Round Choice out of Vanderbilt, is the one true running threat that the Rams have. He has good speed (4.42 in the 40) and posted back to back 1,000 yard rushing campaigns his Junior and Senior years. If you look at the stat sheet, you’ll find he is averaging 4.3 yards/carry … but the vast majority of his yards have come in only 2 games …
Houston … 18 Carries for 79 Yards (4.4 Yards/Carry)
Jacksonville … 14 Carries for 78 Yards (5.6 Yards/Carry)
RB Daryl Richardson (5’10” 206 Pounds) actually has 11 more rushing attempts than Stacy … but he’s been far less effective. He’s gained only 176 yards in 61 carries (a paltry 2.9 yards/rush).
So unless the Rams find a way to somehow regenerate Eric Dickerson or something … I’d say they’re probably going to be in real trouble against a hungry and rapidly improving Seahawks Defense. Speaking of defense, let’s now flip over to that side of the ball and take a gander, shall we?
Rams 2013 Rushing Defense …
Thus far, the Seahawks have had 433 plays from scrimmage. Here is their run/pass breakdown so far …
Rush Attempts … 238 (55% of all plays)
Pass Attempts … 195 (45% of all plays)
Total Attempts … 433
While the coaching staff has put the ball in the hands of Russell Wilson more this year, the bread and butter of the Seahawks Offense continues to be their running attack. Will the Hawks get their bread buttered … or will their loaf be squished in to a ball of dough? Let’s take a look at the Rams Rushing Defense so far this year …
[tdo=3]Rams vs. Seahawks RUSH Defense Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)[/tdo]
I was absolutely floored when I first starting taking a look at the statistics. Is this seriously a Jeff Fisher defense? I mean …
3rd Most Rushing Yards Allowed (855)?
3rd Most Runs of 20 Yards of More Allowed (8)?
6th Most Rushing TD’s Allowed (7)?
Have the Pod People somehow taken over? Well, sort of. The Body Snatchers HAVE definitely been at work on this team, as starting rookie Free Safety T.J. McDonald (6’2” 217 Pounds) is on IR and CB Cortland Finnegan (5’10” 179 Pounds), LB Will Witherspoon (6’1” 242 Pounds), DE William Hayes (6’3” 278 Pounds), DE Chris Long (6’3” 268 Pounds) and others have all been slowed by injuries to one degree or another this year. Quality depth at certain positions has definitely been an issue for this team, but wow.
Football Outsiders has St. Louis’s Run Defense ranked #16 in the NFL (-9.1%). Personally though, I find that ranking to be a bit generous.
San Francisco racked up 219 yards on the ground against the Rams in Week 4, as Frank Gore rushed for 153 yards on 20 carries (5.5 yards/carry average) and a TD.
Houston compiled 153 yards rushing in Week 6, as Arian Foster gashed the Rams for 141 yards on 20 carries (7.1 yards/carry average).
While that’s to be expected somewhat, as the 49ers and Texans are 2 of the top running teams in the NFL (San Francisco is 2nd and Houston 11th in Rush Attempts) … that’s not the case with every team that the Rams have faced.
In Week 3, Demarco Murray ran over the Ram Defense for 175 yards on 26 carries (6.7 yards/carry average) and a TD. Dallas has run the ball only 148 times this season (6th lowest in terms of rush attempts).
Even lowly Jacksonville found some success running the bal in Week 5l, as Maurice Jones-Drew gained 70 yards on 16 carries – averaging 4.1 yards/carry. The Jaguars have run the ball 154 times (tied for 8th fewest rush attempts). They have averaged only a mere 2.9 yards/carry this year (which ranks 31st overall) by the way.
Opposing offensive coordinators have run the ball a total of 209 times against the Rams this year – that’s the 4th highest rush attempts against in the league.
The facts are that in a league that has increasingly become more and more about the pass … opposing offensive coordinators have chosen to RUN against the Rams Front 7 with surprising success. The Rams Defense is allowing 126.4 Rushing Yards/Game (3rd Most in the League). If Seattle just continues to do what they’ve done all year long, Lynch could be in for a monster game.
The two areas for concern that I have with facing this defense are in the areas of Forced Fumbles and Tackles for Loss. Despite their obvious flaws, the Rams have remained surprisingly adept at penetrating in to the backfield and causing turnovers (they are 2nd in the NFL with 14 Forced Fumbles). Seattle’s 5 Rushing Fumbles this season are tied for 5th most in the league. Turnovers (especially on the road) can be an absolute killer. If Marshawn Lynch can avoid getting mugged, then Seattle should run through this defense like a Ginsu in the hands of a Japanese Chef.
Let’s transition over to the Rams Pass Defense and see what picture begins to emerge there …
Rams 2013 Passing Defense …
[tdo=3]Rams vs. Seahawks PASS Defense Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)[/tdo]
[tr]
In 2012, the Rams finished the season with …
52 Sacks (tied with Denver for Most in the league)
The 4th Fewest Passing TDs Allowed (16)
Tied for 11th in Interceptions (17 – just 1 behind the Legion of Boom)
64 Tackles for Loss (4th Most in the NFL)
What a difference a season makes. Despite the fact that opposing teams have passed against the Rams only 217 times (6th Fewest Attempts in the NFL), the yards they have compiled is staggering in comparison.
They are one of the very worst in terms of allowing completions … are only middle of the road in sacks and interceptions … and are in the bottom tier in points allowed (26.3 [9th Most]).
Those are surprising stats for such a supremely talented Front 7. Last season, DE’s Chris Long (6’3 268 Pounds), Robert Quinn (6’4” 264 Pounds), and William Hayes (6’3” 278 Pounds) combined for an impressive 29 Sacks. This year, Quinn is off to a good start, leading the team in both Sacks (7.0) and Tackles for Loss (6). Both Long and Quinn are very quick and instinctual ends that can cause even good tackles problems. In fact, that entire defensive line can. Last year’s #14 overall pick out of LSU, DT Michael Brockers (6’5” 322 pounds), is a good space eater and is 2nd on the team with 3.5 sacks this season. DT Kendall Langford (6’6” 295 pounds) is a very strong, hard nosed, instinctive player, an excellent athlete, and a very good defensive tackle. From 2008 to 2010, Pro Football Focus graded Langford out as the 2nd best tackling lineman in the game – racking up 121 tackles and missing only 1.
If you’ll recall, last year in Seattle that Front 7 gave a completely healthy Seahawks Offensive Line fits, sacking Russell Wilson 6 times and having 7 Tackles for Loss … as even Pro Bowl LT Russell Okung got beaten.
For an offensive line that’s been as beleaguered as Seattle’s with injury, the prospect of a repeat performance is a real possibility. According to Pro Football Focus, Russell Wilson (so far) has been the most pressured QB in the league, experiencing pressure on nearly 50% of his drop-back passes this season. Believe it or not, that didn’t change last week, as Wilson was pressured on 18 of his 34 drop-backs (53%) and as a result, sacked 3 times and fumbled twice. BUT, Russell Wilson also got all 3 of his touchdown passes under pressure as well, as he went 8 for 13 for 128 yards and 3 TD’s in the face of Cardinals pressure.
We’ve talked before about the fact that Russell Wilson outside the pocket had a Total QBR of 62.5 last season – nearly Pro Bowl level. So that begs the question - if you’re an opposing defensive coordinator, how much do you really want to pressure Russell Wilson?
Because of that, I’d actually expect the Rams to employ more of a contained blitz, using their ends to merely force Russell Wilson back inside where there’s help. Still, you don’t want to give Wilson time against this secondary either. The Rams have allowed teams to complete 68.7% of their passes against them (dead last in the league) … with 21 of those going to 20 yards or more. With Free Safety T.J. McDonald still on the shelf … and Cortland Finnegan questionable for this game with a thigh issue (he was a limited participant Thursday and Friday and didn’t practice Saturday), we could see another week with CB Trumaine Johnson (6’2” 208 Pounds) opposite Janoris Jenkins (5’10” 198 Pounds) and SS Rodney McCleod (5’10” 195 Pounds) moving to nickel corner with back-up Matt Giordano (5’11” 208 Pounds) taking over at SS in nickel passing situations.
Jeff Fisher probably secretly wishes he could just hop in the Tardis and go back to the club he had last season. That’s because on Monday, he faces Russell Wilson and an invasion of Daleks with only one singular thought on their minds – EXTERMINATE!
WDFOS (What Does Football Outsiders Say) …
Total DAVE …
Rams … -17.2% (27th in NFL)
Seahawks … 32.7% (2nd in NFL)
Offensive DVOA …
Rams … -11.8% (22nd in NFL)
Seahawks … 8.3% (12th in NFL)
Defensive DVOA …
Rams … 8.7% (27th in NFL)
Seahawks … -22.3% (1st in NFL)
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-7-dvoa-ratings
Any way you slice it, the match-up isn't pretty by any means.
Bold Prediction …
Despite the fact that the Rams have a very good Front 4, it’s honestly hard to see the Rams having a realistic shot in this one. With the World Series Game 5 scheduled at the exact same time in St. Louis on Monday Night, there is a real possibility that the noise traveling from Busch Stadium TO the Edward Jones Dome could be louder than the crowd noise AT the Edward Jones Dome itself. In the Old Testament, Jewish priests would sacrifice lambs on the altar of the temple in Jerusalem to make atonement for the sins of the people. On Monday Night, I fully expect a similar scene on the field.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 37
Rams 6
Week 8: Seahawks vs. Rams Game Preview …
Expectations … expectations … expectations. Both the Seahawks and the Rams had high expectations coming in to this season. While visions of the Super Bowl danced in the heads of the Seahawks and their fans this offseason … the Rams and their fans honestly believed that they challenge for the NFC West as well. And why not, given a new gritty coach in Jeff Fisher who had his team playing some pretty incredible football towards the end of last season? After all, they not only beat the Seahawks … they also beat teams like the 49ers … the Bears … the Lions … Green Bay … and New England as well. Armed with Sam Bradford, a hungry and talented young defense, 2 marquee free agent signings (LT Jake Long and TE Jared Cook), and a stockpile of draft choices that some called one of the very best hauls of the entire 2013 NFL Draft, it’s hard to argue with that assessment. But the best laid plans sometimes go awry. While the Rams are reeling … the Seahawks are surging. Can the Rams rise up and head butt the Hawks on Monday Night … or will it be as a lamb to the slaughter? Let’s take a closer look at who the 2013 Rams have been …
Rams 2013 Passing Offense …
If you simply take a look at the offensive passing statistics from the Rams thus far this season, you will find the following …
Passing Attempts …
Rams … 267 (tied for 8th Most)
Seahawks … 195 (4th Least in NFL)
Passing Yards/Game …
Rams … 228.1 (18th in NFL)
Seahawks … 214.1 (25th in NFL)
Passing Completion% …
Rams … 60.3 (18th in NFL)
Seahawks … 62.6% (13th in NFL)
Avg. Yards/Pass …
Rams … 6.4 (7th Fewest Yards/Pass)
Seahawks … 8.3 (tied for 4th Highest)
Passes of 20 Yards+ Completed …
Rams … 19 (tied for 22nd in NFL)
Seahawks … 26 (tied for 8th Most)
Passing TD’s …
Rams … 14 (tied for 5th Most)
Seahawks … 12 (10th Most)
Interceptions Thrown …
Rams … 4 (tied for 4th Fewest)
Seahawks … 4 (tied for 4th Fewest)
QB Rating …
Rams … 90.2 (14th in NFL)
Seahawks … 100.8 (7th Best in NFL)
As was the case last season, the Rams like to PASS the majority of the time they are on offense.
Rams Offense
Passing Attempts … 267 (63.3% of Offense)
Rushing Attempts … 155 (36.7% of Offense)
Total Attempts … 422
Up until this point, over 60% of the Rams’ Offense has come via the pass. That WAS the Rams Offense – until last Sunday when starting QB Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the Carolina Panthers game.
That means the hopes of the Rams for the remainder of this season hang on Kellen Clemens – a 30 year old career backup from Oregon who outside of helping power the 2007 Jets to a 4-12 record, really hasn’t done anything of any significance over the course of his 8 year career in the NFL. For those who are curious, here are Clemens’s career stats …
| Games Played | Comp. | Att. | Comp% | Yards | TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating | Total QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 198 | 382 | 51.8% | 2,290 | 7 | 13 | 62.2 | 19.2 |
Unlike Seattle’s Clemons, St. Louis’s Clemens has been decidedly mediocre at best throughout his career – which is why desperate times often call for desperate measures. So great is the organization’s confidence in Clemens that Rams GM Les Snead picked up the phone and called agent Buzz Cook and inquired not only about free agent Austin Davis … but also Brett Favre. Brett Favre? You mean the same Brett Favre who hasn’t strapped on a helmet in 3 years … had biceps surgery when he was 40 to duct tape his arm back together … and looks to be now dealing with memory loss? Yep. And nope.
So, the Rams turned to their next best option for a back-up – former Seahawk camp fodder Brady Quinn. Ahhh … you can never have enough single read pick-6 QB’s I suppose.
IF Kellen Clemens actually has time to throw the ball, he has several playmakers who can cause some damage. Here are the numbers from the Rams top receiving targets thus far this season …
| Receiver | Size | Catches | Targets | Yards | Yards/Catch | TD’s | #Catches of 20 Yds+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Tavon Austin | 5’8” 176 Lbs | 29 | 46 | 198 | 6.8 | 2 | 2 |
| TE Jared Cook | 6’5” 254 Lbs | 26 | 42 | 344 | 13.2 | 2 | 4 |
| WR Austin Pettis | 6’3” 203 Lbs | 25 | 41 | 251 | 10.0 | 4 | 4 |
| WR Chris Givens | 6’0” 203 Lbs | 18 | 40 | 295 | 16.4 | 0 | 6 |
| TE Lance Kendricks | 6'3” 250 Lbs | 18 | 24 | 136 | 7.6 | 3 | 0 |
| RB Daryl Richardson | 5'10" 206 Lbs | 13 | 17 | 113 | 8.7 | 0 | 0 |
| WR Brian Quick | 6'3" 218 Lbs | 9 | 21 | 196 | 21.8 | 1 | 3 |
Receivers such as Jared Cook, Brian Quick, Chris Givens, and rookie sensation Tavon Austin (who can run the 40 yard dash in 4.34 seconds) are capable of giving opposing secondaries fits if given a quarterback who can make plays and avoid mistakes. What’s interesting to note though from the passing numbers above … is that though over 60% of the Rams this year has come via the pass, their overall productivity in the passing game is actually fairly comparable to Seattle’s. Despite the fact that the Seahawks don’t pass nearly as much as the Rams have, the numbers they have put up compare very favorably with those of the St. Louis passing attack.
And those numbers above are obviously WITH Sam Bradford at the helm. What exactly can we expect from Clemens? I’d say a large part of that has to do with the war in the trenches. The Rams spent a lot of money in the offseason, bringing in Jake Long in an attempt to re-vamp that Offensive Line. How have they done thus far this year?
QB Hits Allowed …
Rams … 38 (tied for 13th Most in the NFL)
Seahawks … 40 (9th Most in the NFL)
Sacks Allowed …
Rams … 18 (tied for 14th Most in the NFL)
Seahawks … 20 (tied for 9th Most in the NFL)
Although Football Outsiders has the Rams Offensive Line ranked 10th Best overall in term of pass protection … and ProFootball Focus has them ranked 6th Best overall, it’s interesting to note that they have allowed virtually the exact same numbers of sacks and hits on the quarterback as Seattle’s makeshift line. Jake Long (6’7” 322 Pounds) and Scott Wells (6’2” 302 Pounds) are admittedly studs … but the man they’ll be protecting on Sunday doesn’t have nearly the mobility or pocket presence Bradford has … and hasn’t started a game since 2011. The Seahawks defense, on the other hand, looks to be coming on strong, as they are coming off a 7 sack performance against the Cardinals. Clemens better move faster than the Jumping Frog of Caliveras County … or he’s going to get squished like Frogger by the Seahawks Front 7.
Given the circumstances, I’d expect Brian Schottenheimer (the Rams Offensive Coordinator) to adjust the game plan a bit on Monday night and RUN the ball more. How have they done in that department? Let’s take a look …
Rams 2013 Rushing Offense …
| Category | Rams | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing Attempts | 155 (10th Fewest) | 238 (2nd Most) |
| Rushing Yards | 494 (6th Fewest) | 1,081 (2nd Most) |
| Rushing Yards/Game | 70.6 (4th Fewest) | 154.4 (2nd Most) |
| Avg. Yards/Rush | 3.2 (Tied 3rd Fewest) | 4.5(Tied 6th Most) |
| Rushes of 20+ Yds | 2 (Tied 3rd Fewest) | 8 (Tied 3rd Most) |
| Rushing 1st Downs | 25 (5th Fewest) | 58 (2nd Most) |
| 3rd Down Conv% | 30.9% (31st) | 35.6% (24th) |
| Rushing TD’s | 0 (32nd) | 7 (Tied for 4th Most) |
| Rushing Fumbles | 1 (Tied 3rd Fewest) | 5 (Tied 5th Most) |
As mentioned above, the Rams (up until this point) have run the ball only 36.7% of the time. They are among the bottom leaders in terms of Yards/Game … number of Rushing 1st Downs … TD’s … and so on, which is to be expected.
However, 2 statistics above really stand out -- they are also right at the bottom in Average Yards/Rush (only 3.2 per rush) … and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (30.9%). So even in those times that they’ve chosen to run the ball … and needed to run the ball … they aren’t all that effective.
RB Zac Stacy (5’8” 224 Pounds), this year’s 5th Round Choice out of Vanderbilt, is the one true running threat that the Rams have. He has good speed (4.42 in the 40) and posted back to back 1,000 yard rushing campaigns his Junior and Senior years. If you look at the stat sheet, you’ll find he is averaging 4.3 yards/carry … but the vast majority of his yards have come in only 2 games …
Houston … 18 Carries for 79 Yards (4.4 Yards/Carry)
Jacksonville … 14 Carries for 78 Yards (5.6 Yards/Carry)
RB Daryl Richardson (5’10” 206 Pounds) actually has 11 more rushing attempts than Stacy … but he’s been far less effective. He’s gained only 176 yards in 61 carries (a paltry 2.9 yards/rush).
So unless the Rams find a way to somehow regenerate Eric Dickerson or something … I’d say they’re probably going to be in real trouble against a hungry and rapidly improving Seahawks Defense. Speaking of defense, let’s now flip over to that side of the ball and take a gander, shall we?
Rams 2013 Rushing Defense …
Thus far, the Seahawks have had 433 plays from scrimmage. Here is their run/pass breakdown so far …
Rush Attempts … 238 (55% of all plays)
Pass Attempts … 195 (45% of all plays)
Total Attempts … 433
While the coaching staff has put the ball in the hands of Russell Wilson more this year, the bread and butter of the Seahawks Offense continues to be their running attack. Will the Hawks get their bread buttered … or will their loaf be squished in to a ball of dough? Let’s take a look at the Rams Rushing Defense so far this year …
| Category | Rams | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing Attempts Against | 209 (4th Most) | 173 (Tied 14th) |
| Rushing Yards Allwd | 885 (3rd Most) | 641 (10th Fewest) |
| Rushing Yards/Game Allwd | 126.4 (3rd Most) | 91.6 (6th Most) |
| Avg. Yards/Rush Allwd | 4.2 (Tied 9th Most) | 3.7 (Tied 8th Fewest) |
| Rushes of 20+ Yds Allwd | 8 (3rd Most) | 2 (Tied 3rd Least) |
| Rushing 1st Downs Allwd | 44 (7th Most) | 35 (12th Fewest) |
| Rushing TD’s Allwd | 7 (Tied 6th Most) | 4 (Tied for 12th Least) |
| Tackles for Loss | 28 | 21 |
| Rushing Fumbles Caused | 5 (Tied 5th Most) | 6 (Tied 2nd Most) |
| Forced Fumbles | 14 (2nd Most) | 12 (3rd Most) |
I was absolutely floored when I first starting taking a look at the statistics. Is this seriously a Jeff Fisher defense? I mean …
3rd Most Rushing Yards Allowed (855)?
3rd Most Runs of 20 Yards of More Allowed (8)?
6th Most Rushing TD’s Allowed (7)?
Have the Pod People somehow taken over? Well, sort of. The Body Snatchers HAVE definitely been at work on this team, as starting rookie Free Safety T.J. McDonald (6’2” 217 Pounds) is on IR and CB Cortland Finnegan (5’10” 179 Pounds), LB Will Witherspoon (6’1” 242 Pounds), DE William Hayes (6’3” 278 Pounds), DE Chris Long (6’3” 268 Pounds) and others have all been slowed by injuries to one degree or another this year. Quality depth at certain positions has definitely been an issue for this team, but wow.
Football Outsiders has St. Louis’s Run Defense ranked #16 in the NFL (-9.1%). Personally though, I find that ranking to be a bit generous.
San Francisco racked up 219 yards on the ground against the Rams in Week 4, as Frank Gore rushed for 153 yards on 20 carries (5.5 yards/carry average) and a TD.
Houston compiled 153 yards rushing in Week 6, as Arian Foster gashed the Rams for 141 yards on 20 carries (7.1 yards/carry average).
While that’s to be expected somewhat, as the 49ers and Texans are 2 of the top running teams in the NFL (San Francisco is 2nd and Houston 11th in Rush Attempts) … that’s not the case with every team that the Rams have faced.
In Week 3, Demarco Murray ran over the Ram Defense for 175 yards on 26 carries (6.7 yards/carry average) and a TD. Dallas has run the ball only 148 times this season (6th lowest in terms of rush attempts).
Even lowly Jacksonville found some success running the bal in Week 5l, as Maurice Jones-Drew gained 70 yards on 16 carries – averaging 4.1 yards/carry. The Jaguars have run the ball 154 times (tied for 8th fewest rush attempts). They have averaged only a mere 2.9 yards/carry this year (which ranks 31st overall) by the way.
Opposing offensive coordinators have run the ball a total of 209 times against the Rams this year – that’s the 4th highest rush attempts against in the league.
The facts are that in a league that has increasingly become more and more about the pass … opposing offensive coordinators have chosen to RUN against the Rams Front 7 with surprising success. The Rams Defense is allowing 126.4 Rushing Yards/Game (3rd Most in the League). If Seattle just continues to do what they’ve done all year long, Lynch could be in for a monster game.
The two areas for concern that I have with facing this defense are in the areas of Forced Fumbles and Tackles for Loss. Despite their obvious flaws, the Rams have remained surprisingly adept at penetrating in to the backfield and causing turnovers (they are 2nd in the NFL with 14 Forced Fumbles). Seattle’s 5 Rushing Fumbles this season are tied for 5th most in the league. Turnovers (especially on the road) can be an absolute killer. If Marshawn Lynch can avoid getting mugged, then Seattle should run through this defense like a Ginsu in the hands of a Japanese Chef.
Let’s transition over to the Rams Pass Defense and see what picture begins to emerge there …
Rams 2013 Passing Defense …
| Category | Rams | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Attempts Against | 217 (6th Fewest) | 241 (15th) |
| Passing Yards Allwd | 1,729 (22nd) | 1,334 (3rd Fewest) |
| Passing Yds/Game Allwd | 247.0 (17th) | 190.6 (2nd Best) |
| Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd | 21 (Tied for 18th) | 11 (Fewest in NFL) |
| Avg. Yds/Reception Allwd | 12.3 (25th) | 10.6 (3rd) |
| Pass Comp% Allwd | 68.7% (32nd) | 58.5% (7th Best) |
| Opp 3rd Down Conv% | 40.9% (25th) | 36.6% (12th Best) |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 148 (26th) | 130 (13th Fewest) |
| Passing TD’s Allwd | 12 (Tied for 10th Most) | 6 (tied for 3rd Fewest) |
| QB Rating Allwd | 103.4 (30th) | 66.1 (2nd Best) |
| Avg. Yards/Pass Allwd | 8.5 (2nd Most) | 6.2 (2nd Fewest) |
| Sacks | 18 (tied for 16th) | 23 (tied for 4th Most) |
| Interceptions | 5 (tied for 19th) | 11 (2nd Most) |
| Passes Defensed | 27 (22nd) | 37 (Tied for 9th Most) |
| Give Away/Take Away Margin | 3 | +7 (Tied 2nd Best) |
| Points Allwd/Game | 26.3 (9th Most) | 16.6 (3rd Fewest) |
In 2012, the Rams finished the season with …
52 Sacks (tied with Denver for Most in the league)
The 4th Fewest Passing TDs Allowed (16)
Tied for 11th in Interceptions (17 – just 1 behind the Legion of Boom)
64 Tackles for Loss (4th Most in the NFL)
What a difference a season makes. Despite the fact that opposing teams have passed against the Rams only 217 times (6th Fewest Attempts in the NFL), the yards they have compiled is staggering in comparison.
They are one of the very worst in terms of allowing completions … are only middle of the road in sacks and interceptions … and are in the bottom tier in points allowed (26.3 [9th Most]).
Those are surprising stats for such a supremely talented Front 7. Last season, DE’s Chris Long (6’3 268 Pounds), Robert Quinn (6’4” 264 Pounds), and William Hayes (6’3” 278 Pounds) combined for an impressive 29 Sacks. This year, Quinn is off to a good start, leading the team in both Sacks (7.0) and Tackles for Loss (6). Both Long and Quinn are very quick and instinctual ends that can cause even good tackles problems. In fact, that entire defensive line can. Last year’s #14 overall pick out of LSU, DT Michael Brockers (6’5” 322 pounds), is a good space eater and is 2nd on the team with 3.5 sacks this season. DT Kendall Langford (6’6” 295 pounds) is a very strong, hard nosed, instinctive player, an excellent athlete, and a very good defensive tackle. From 2008 to 2010, Pro Football Focus graded Langford out as the 2nd best tackling lineman in the game – racking up 121 tackles and missing only 1.
If you’ll recall, last year in Seattle that Front 7 gave a completely healthy Seahawks Offensive Line fits, sacking Russell Wilson 6 times and having 7 Tackles for Loss … as even Pro Bowl LT Russell Okung got beaten.
For an offensive line that’s been as beleaguered as Seattle’s with injury, the prospect of a repeat performance is a real possibility. According to Pro Football Focus, Russell Wilson (so far) has been the most pressured QB in the league, experiencing pressure on nearly 50% of his drop-back passes this season. Believe it or not, that didn’t change last week, as Wilson was pressured on 18 of his 34 drop-backs (53%) and as a result, sacked 3 times and fumbled twice. BUT, Russell Wilson also got all 3 of his touchdown passes under pressure as well, as he went 8 for 13 for 128 yards and 3 TD’s in the face of Cardinals pressure.
We’ve talked before about the fact that Russell Wilson outside the pocket had a Total QBR of 62.5 last season – nearly Pro Bowl level. So that begs the question - if you’re an opposing defensive coordinator, how much do you really want to pressure Russell Wilson?
Because of that, I’d actually expect the Rams to employ more of a contained blitz, using their ends to merely force Russell Wilson back inside where there’s help. Still, you don’t want to give Wilson time against this secondary either. The Rams have allowed teams to complete 68.7% of their passes against them (dead last in the league) … with 21 of those going to 20 yards or more. With Free Safety T.J. McDonald still on the shelf … and Cortland Finnegan questionable for this game with a thigh issue (he was a limited participant Thursday and Friday and didn’t practice Saturday), we could see another week with CB Trumaine Johnson (6’2” 208 Pounds) opposite Janoris Jenkins (5’10” 198 Pounds) and SS Rodney McCleod (5’10” 195 Pounds) moving to nickel corner with back-up Matt Giordano (5’11” 208 Pounds) taking over at SS in nickel passing situations.
Jeff Fisher probably secretly wishes he could just hop in the Tardis and go back to the club he had last season. That’s because on Monday, he faces Russell Wilson and an invasion of Daleks with only one singular thought on their minds – EXTERMINATE!
WDFOS (What Does Football Outsiders Say) …
Total DAVE …
Rams … -17.2% (27th in NFL)
Seahawks … 32.7% (2nd in NFL)
Offensive DVOA …
Rams … -11.8% (22nd in NFL)
Seahawks … 8.3% (12th in NFL)
Defensive DVOA …
Rams … 8.7% (27th in NFL)
Seahawks … -22.3% (1st in NFL)
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-7-dvoa-ratings
Any way you slice it, the match-up isn't pretty by any means.
Bold Prediction …
Despite the fact that the Rams have a very good Front 4, it’s honestly hard to see the Rams having a realistic shot in this one. With the World Series Game 5 scheduled at the exact same time in St. Louis on Monday Night, there is a real possibility that the noise traveling from Busch Stadium TO the Edward Jones Dome could be louder than the crowd noise AT the Edward Jones Dome itself. In the Old Testament, Jewish priests would sacrifice lambs on the altar of the temple in Jerusalem to make atonement for the sins of the people. On Monday Night, I fully expect a similar scene on the field.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 37
Rams 6
