ChrisB Bacon
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I know for the last couple weeks everybody has been freaking out about the 14-2 tie with SF if we both win out (them winning the game down there), but I think that scenario is very unlikely. New Orleans' loss to the Jets was huge in terms of gaining a game on them, as well as showing they aren't as close to world beaters as some people were suspecting.
Lets look at the remaining schedules for the 3 NFC teams fighting for the #1 seed.
New Orleans:
Dallas
San Francisco
@Atlanta
@Seattle
Carolina
@St. Louis
@Carolina
Tampa Bay
San Francisco:
Carolina
@New Orleans
@Washington
St. Louis
Seattle
@Tampa Bay
Atlanta
@Arizona
Seattle:
@Atlanta
Minnesota
BYE
New Orleans
@San Fransisco
@New York Giants
Arizona
St. Louis
We have, by quite a bit, the easiest remaining schedule out of the three. We also already have at least a game up on both NO and SF.
New Orleans has 5 tough games remaining, playing both @Seattle and SF, Carolina twice, and Dallas. That's an incredibly difficult back half of the season, and I could easily see them dropping 3 out of the 5. Even if they get hot and win 3 of those games, they're still at 12-4 and that's not going to be enough for a #1 seed in this years NFC. Barring a magical run, New Orleans pretty much eliminated themselves from the #1 seed picture this weekend.
That leaves Seattle and San Francisco. The next 5 weeks will determine the Niners season. 4 out of the 5 games are what I'd consider tough. During this stretch they play Carolina, @New Orleans, @Washington, and Seattle. If they can manage to go 4-0 through that stretch, they probably deserve the #1 seed, and they'd probably end up getting it as their final 3 games are a cakewalk. If they go 2-2, regardless of where the losses come from, that puts them at 12-4, and, like the Saints, they'd be pretty much toast in terms of the #1 seed race. 3-1 with a loss to Seattle ALSO puts their #1 seed dreams on life support as they'd be 13-3 with no shot of a tiebreaker of Seattle, while Seattle would have also won one of their tough games. 3-1 with a win over Seattle would put them in decent position record and tiebreaker wise, but they still wouldn't control their own destiny since Seattle would still have a game up.
Seattle's remaining schedule is kind of weird. They have a week 12 bye, and there are only 2 truly tough games remaining (NO and SF), but @Atlanta and @NYG still stick out as somewhat worrisome. If Seattle sweeps NO and SF, the #1 seed is a virtual lock. Seattle could lose two more games the rest of the way and still easily end up with the #1 seed.
But lets work off the assumption New Orleans ends up 12-4 (loss to Seattle) and SF ends up 13-3 (win over Seattle). In that scenario Seattle would have to win all the other games to get the #1 seed without worrying about tiebreakers. This is where the @Atlanta and @NYG games come in to play. Both are traditionally good teams having uncharacteristically bad years. Atlanta sitting at 2-6 has been decent at home and awful on the road. We play them in their dome where they're 2-2 with the two close losses coming to New England and the Jets. A win this week would be very reassuring. The Giants are also 2-6, but are on a 2 game win streak coming off their bye. If they get hot, they could be challenging for the NFC East, and New York in December at 10am is not a friendly place for visitors. This game could end up being the deciding factor in whether or not we have HFA throughout or have to go on the road as the #5 seed.
So, obviously winning out and going 15-1 is the goal. Why wouldn't it be? I'm not saying it can't happen, and I'd stop short of calling it unreasonable, but we CAN lose a game or two. Beat SF, and two losses shouldn't hurt us too bad. This is also a luxury in terms of potentially resting players the last couple weeks against Arizona and St Louis (especially STL).
Seahawk fans should be big Panther fans during the last half of the season.
Lets look at the remaining schedules for the 3 NFC teams fighting for the #1 seed.
New Orleans:
Dallas
San Francisco
@Atlanta
@Seattle
Carolina
@St. Louis
@Carolina
Tampa Bay
San Francisco:
Carolina
@New Orleans
@Washington
St. Louis
Seattle
@Tampa Bay
Atlanta
@Arizona
Seattle:
@Atlanta
Minnesota
BYE
New Orleans
@San Fransisco
@New York Giants
Arizona
St. Louis
We have, by quite a bit, the easiest remaining schedule out of the three. We also already have at least a game up on both NO and SF.
New Orleans has 5 tough games remaining, playing both @Seattle and SF, Carolina twice, and Dallas. That's an incredibly difficult back half of the season, and I could easily see them dropping 3 out of the 5. Even if they get hot and win 3 of those games, they're still at 12-4 and that's not going to be enough for a #1 seed in this years NFC. Barring a magical run, New Orleans pretty much eliminated themselves from the #1 seed picture this weekend.
That leaves Seattle and San Francisco. The next 5 weeks will determine the Niners season. 4 out of the 5 games are what I'd consider tough. During this stretch they play Carolina, @New Orleans, @Washington, and Seattle. If they can manage to go 4-0 through that stretch, they probably deserve the #1 seed, and they'd probably end up getting it as their final 3 games are a cakewalk. If they go 2-2, regardless of where the losses come from, that puts them at 12-4, and, like the Saints, they'd be pretty much toast in terms of the #1 seed race. 3-1 with a loss to Seattle ALSO puts their #1 seed dreams on life support as they'd be 13-3 with no shot of a tiebreaker of Seattle, while Seattle would have also won one of their tough games. 3-1 with a win over Seattle would put them in decent position record and tiebreaker wise, but they still wouldn't control their own destiny since Seattle would still have a game up.
Seattle's remaining schedule is kind of weird. They have a week 12 bye, and there are only 2 truly tough games remaining (NO and SF), but @Atlanta and @NYG still stick out as somewhat worrisome. If Seattle sweeps NO and SF, the #1 seed is a virtual lock. Seattle could lose two more games the rest of the way and still easily end up with the #1 seed.
But lets work off the assumption New Orleans ends up 12-4 (loss to Seattle) and SF ends up 13-3 (win over Seattle). In that scenario Seattle would have to win all the other games to get the #1 seed without worrying about tiebreakers. This is where the @Atlanta and @NYG games come in to play. Both are traditionally good teams having uncharacteristically bad years. Atlanta sitting at 2-6 has been decent at home and awful on the road. We play them in their dome where they're 2-2 with the two close losses coming to New England and the Jets. A win this week would be very reassuring. The Giants are also 2-6, but are on a 2 game win streak coming off their bye. If they get hot, they could be challenging for the NFC East, and New York in December at 10am is not a friendly place for visitors. This game could end up being the deciding factor in whether or not we have HFA throughout or have to go on the road as the #5 seed.
So, obviously winning out and going 15-1 is the goal. Why wouldn't it be? I'm not saying it can't happen, and I'd stop short of calling it unreasonable, but we CAN lose a game or two. Beat SF, and two losses shouldn't hurt us too bad. This is also a luxury in terms of potentially resting players the last couple weeks against Arizona and St Louis (especially STL).
Seahawk fans should be big Panther fans during the last half of the season.