We can afford a loss or two. (long)

[ChrisB Bacon]

I know for the last couple weeks everybody has been freaking out about the 14-2 tie with SF if we both win out (them winning the game down there), but I think that scenario is very unlikely. New Orleans' loss to the Jets was huge in terms of gaining a game on them, as well as showing they aren't as close to world beaters as some people were suspecting.

Lets look at the remaining schedules for the 3 NFC teams fighting for the #1 seed.

New Orleans:
Dallas
San Francisco
@Atlanta
@Seattle
Carolina
@St. Louis
@Carolina
Tampa Bay

San Francisco:
Carolina
@New Orleans
@Washington
St. Louis
Seattle
@Tampa Bay
Atlanta
@Arizona

Seattle:
@Atlanta
Minnesota
BYE
New Orleans
@San Fransisco
@New York Giants
Arizona
St. Louis

We have, by quite a bit, the easiest remaining schedule out of the three. We also already have at least a game up on both NO and SF.

New Orleans has 5 tough games remaining, playing both @Seattle and SF, Carolina twice, and Dallas. That's an incredibly difficult back half of the season, and I could easily see them dropping 3 out of the 5. Even if they get hot and win 3 of those games, they're still at 12-4 and that's not going to be enough for a #1 seed in this years NFC. Barring a magical run, New Orleans pretty much eliminated themselves from the #1 seed picture this weekend.

That leaves Seattle and San Francisco. The next 5 weeks will determine the Niners season. 4 out of the 5 games are what I'd consider tough. During this stretch they play Carolina, @New Orleans, @Washington, and Seattle. If they can manage to go 4-0 through that stretch, they probably deserve the #1 seed, and they'd probably end up getting it as their final 3 games are a cakewalk. If they go 2-2, regardless of where the losses come from, that puts them at 12-4, and, like the Saints, they'd be pretty much toast in terms of the #1 seed race. 3-1 with a loss to Seattle ALSO puts their #1 seed dreams on life support as they'd be 13-3 with no shot of a tiebreaker of Seattle, while Seattle would have also won one of their tough games. 3-1 with a win over Seattle would put them in decent position record and tiebreaker wise, but they still wouldn't control their own destiny since Seattle would still have a game up.

Seattle's remaining schedule is kind of weird. They have a week 12 bye, and there are only 2 truly tough games remaining (NO and SF), but @Atlanta and @NYG still stick out as somewhat worrisome. If Seattle sweeps NO and SF, the #1 seed is a virtual lock. Seattle could lose two more games the rest of the way and still easily end up with the #1 seed.

But lets work off the assumption New Orleans ends up 12-4 (loss to Seattle) and SF ends up 13-3 (win over Seattle). In that scenario Seattle would have to win all the other games to get the #1 seed without worrying about tiebreakers. This is where the @Atlanta and @NYG games come in to play. Both are traditionally good teams having uncharacteristically bad years. Atlanta sitting at 2-6 has been decent at home and awful on the road. We play them in their dome where they're 2-2 with the two close losses coming to New England and the Jets. A win this week would be very reassuring. The Giants are also 2-6, but are on a 2 game win streak coming off their bye. If they get hot, they could be challenging for the NFC East, and New York in December at 10am is not a friendly place for visitors. This game could end up being the deciding factor in whether or not we have HFA throughout or have to go on the road as the #5 seed.

So, obviously winning out and going 15-1 is the goal. Why wouldn't it be? I'm not saying it can't happen, and I'd stop short of calling it unreasonable, but we CAN lose a game or two. Beat SF, and two losses shouldn't hurt us too bad. This is also a luxury in terms of potentially resting players the last couple weeks against Arizona and St Louis (especially STL).

Seahawk fans should be big Panther fans during the last half of the season.

 

[el capitan]

If we can beat the 49ers at Candlestick park I don't think the Giants will be a problem.

 

[minormillikin]

Good stuff, interesting read, with a lot of useful information. Thanks for posting. And... I don't think it's particularly long compared to some of the posts in this joint.

It look like if we can scrape out those road games, it will be easy street. I don't envy what the 9ers and Saints have left on their schedules, for sure.

 

[sutz]

Thanks for the analysis, but I don't care for the sentiment involved.

J/K, sort of. I do have faith that the players aren't thinking that way. I'm fairly certain that Wilson's plan is to go 1-0 this week and worry about the other games as they come.

But hey, we're fans and we get to do exercises like that. Which brings me to the whole "if we play this way then (playoffs, Atlanta, when- or wherever), we'll lose" mind frame. I don't really understand it. Sure, there's truth there, but another truth is that nobody really knows how we'll play next week, month, year.....

I see it as we're winning ugly. Other seem to see it as we're winning ugly. Perception is reality, I guess. I kind of have faith that the team will rise to any occasion. It's how they've been operating, after all.

 

[Reaneypark]

We just need to win the games we're supposed to win and all will be good. I think the Seahawks come out fired up in ATL ready to make a statement and looking for some revenge. It won't be a blowout, but it'll be a win.

 

[Popeyejones]

San Francisco:
Carolina
@New Orleans
@Washington
St. Louis
Seattle

If I had to bet money it would be on the 9ers dropping two of these five, and then winning out from there. Dropping three of five is more likely than one of five in this stretch, IMO. That would put the 9ers at 12-4 or 11-5, which are both good seasons, and can frequently win a division, but won't win this one this year.

Basically, even if the Hawks lose in S.F., if they can get back in sync (which I'm fully expecting them to) I don't really see the path to them not winning the division. More so than anything, even when they've played relatively poorly (which they've arguably done in four wins, maybe five, but my expectations for them are also pretty high), they've won. Winning those games that could have been coin flip is huuuuuuuuge, and really tends to be the difference between being a division winner or a wild card team.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Atlanta has lost a lot of close games, still has a lot of talent, a loud stadium, and has beaten the Hawks the last 4 times they have faced off. I can't fathom anyone thinking this would be an easy game, or that we're "supposed to beat" this team. They need to bring a very good game on Sunday to pull it off.

 

[aawolf]

I'm glad my second favorite team, the Panthers, are the team most likely to help my Seahawks get the number 1 seed. We should all be Panthers fans the rest of the year, especially next week and when they play NO two times. GO PANTHERS!!!!

 

[RiverDog]

We have to win our division. Failure to do so will subject us to having to win 3 consecutive road games, barring an improbable matchup against a #6 seed. It would be an absolute shame to have a season like we're having and not even get a home playoff game.

I do think our two main competitors for HFA, ie the Saints and Niners, will both lose at least one game before we face either of them. The wild card is Carolina, that has quietly become one of the hottest teams in the league, winning their last 4 in a row. The Saints have to play them twice and the Niners go up against them next week, so if that scenario unfolds, then we can afford to lose one game.

We were aided last night when the Bears beat the Pack. Now we have a two game lead over every team in the conference except for the Saints and Niners, and as was noted, those two have what on paper is a tougher schedules than what we're facing. The stars continue to line up.

 

[Lieutenant Dan]

Thank you for that write-up, Chris. That was helpful in sorting out the HFA and our 'wiggle room' on the matter.

What I feel great about this season in this respect is that we are EARNING the division and EARNING the HFA. I don't see how other teams can whine about schedules or us having the easy path as we've had to pretty much go to war for almost every victory.

I think this is also good for the team's mental toughness that is necessary to get though all the Super Bowl hoopla/distractions and win the damn thing this year.

 

[Seahawk772002]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/seahawks/ ... ame-notes/

I pasted the article trom the Seattle Times with comments and comparison of RW to other QB and chance to have most wins in 1st two years as QB from another thread.

It reflects what a lot of us already know how special RW is.

Last year during rookie of the year discussion on ESPN when Steve Young was asked about the award; despite the numbers and results, said Luck and Griffen were HOF QBs when asked about RW. Started to want to throw a shoe at TV, then realized how idiotic some of these so called experts are.

This thread is well thought out and not too long.

Concure that it would be a shame to have such a magical year, go 14 - 2, and just like last year be the 5 seed. Speculating about tough schedule is fruitless; but still this thread is well written and thought out.

My three past dream seasons

1984 - 12 and 4 - big let down in Dolphin revenge game in Miami.
2005 - 13 and 3 - refs and stealers in Super Bowl XL; dont ge me started.
2012 - 11 and 5 - sat staring at TV after Atlanta FG after huge come back.

Lets just enjoy the ride and see if the 2013 stars are lining up.

GO HAWKS

 

[hoxrox]

It comes down to beating SF. We must beat them because I think they would win in a tie breaker scenario based on schedule.

Honestly I don't see us winning out, probably losing 2 more. One to a good team (SF or NO) and another fluky type of loss, losing to a team we should have beaten like the Falcons or Giants.

So if both teams are 14-2, 13-3 or 12-4, they win the division unless we beat them.

 

[AbsolutNET]

What worries me is the way SF is playing vs the way the Hawks are playing. Right now the NOLA and SF games look like long shots to me. SF is playing VERY good football and I expect them to finish 13-3. Right now the ATL game is absolutely huge, because if we have a slip up, then the Hawks don't have room to absorb loses to NOLA and/or SF. According to Hoxrox, we are a wild card if we tie with SF, so we really can only afford one more loss, imo. Two loses is going to mean we'll need help from other teams.

 

[JustTheTip]

I would kind of like to see the Giants keep winning. If they are in the mix for the east when that game comes around, I could see it being flexed to prime time.

 

[lukerguy]

I ithink we go 13-3 along with the 49ers. Not sure who would win the tiebreaker as the 49ers have already beat both teams on the road in the division.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

I know for the last couple weeks everybody has been freaking out about the 14-2 tie with SF if we both win out (them winning the game down there), but I think that scenario is very unlikely. New Orleans' loss to the Jets was huge in terms of gaining a game on them, as well as showing they aren't as close to world beaters as some people were suspecting.

Lets look at the remaining schedules for the 3 NFC teams fighting for the #1 seed.

New Orleans:
Dallas
San Francisco
@Atlanta
@Seattle
Carolina
@St. Louis
@Carolina
Tampa Bay

San Francisco:
Carolina
@New Orleans
@Washington
St. Louis
Seattle
@Tampa Bay
Atlanta
@Arizona

Seattle:
@Atlanta
Minnesota
BYE
New Orleans
@San Fransisco
@New York Giants
Arizona
St. Louis

We have, by quite a bit, the easiest remaining schedule out of the three. We also already have at least a game up on both NO and SF.

New Orleans has 5 tough games remaining, playing both @Seattle and SF, Carolina twice, and Dallas. That's an incredibly difficult back half of the season, and I could easily see them dropping 3 out of the 5. Even if they get hot and win 3 of those games, they're still at 12-4 and that's not going to be enough for a #1 seed in this years NFC. Barring a magical run, New Orleans pretty much eliminated themselves from the #1 seed picture this weekend.

That leaves Seattle and San Francisco. The next 5 weeks will determine the Niners season. 4 out of the 5 games are what I'd consider tough. During this stretch they play Carolina, @New Orleans, @Washington, and Seattle. If they can manage to go 4-0 through that stretch, they probably deserve the #1 seed, and they'd probably end up getting it as their final 3 games are a cakewalk. If they go 2-2, regardless of where the losses come from, that puts them at 12-4, and, like the Saints, they'd be pretty much toast in terms of the #1 seed race. 3-1 with a loss to Seattle ALSO puts their #1 seed dreams on life support as they'd be 13-3 with no shot of a tiebreaker of Seattle, while Seattle would have also won one of their tough games. 3-1 with a win over Seattle would put them in decent position record and tiebreaker wise, but they still wouldn't control their own destiny since Seattle would still have a game up.

Seattle's remaining schedule is kind of weird. They have a week 12 bye, and there are only 2 truly tough games remaining (NO and SF), but @Atlanta and @NYG still stick out as somewhat worrisome. If Seattle sweeps NO and SF, the #1 seed is a virtual lock. Seattle could lose two more games the rest of the way and still easily end up with the #1 seed.

But lets work off the assumption New Orleans ends up 12-4 (loss to Seattle) and SF ends up 13-3 (win over Seattle). In that scenario Seattle would have to win all the other games to get the #1 seed without worrying about tiebreakers. This is where the @Atlanta and @NYG games come in to play. Both are traditionally good teams having uncharacteristically bad years. Atlanta sitting at 2-6 has been decent at home and awful on the road. We play them in their dome where they're 2-2 with the two close losses coming to New England and the Jets. A win this week would be very reassuring. The Giants are also 2-6, but are on a 2 game win streak coming off their bye. If they get hot, they could be challenging for the NFC East, and New York in December at 10am is not a friendly place for visitors. This game could end up being the deciding factor in whether or not we have HFA throughout or have to go on the road as the #5 seed.

So, obviously winning out and going 15-1 is the goal. Why wouldn't it be? I'm not saying it can't happen, and I'd stop short of calling it unreasonable, but we CAN lose a game or two. Beat SF, and two losses shouldn't hurt us too bad. This is also a luxury in terms of potentially resting players the last couple weeks against Arizona and St Louis (especially STL).

Seahawk fans should be big Panther fans during the last half of the season.

"3-1 with a win over Seattle would put them in decent position record and tiebreaker wise, but they still wouldn't control their own destiny since Seattle would still have a game up."
In that scenario the records are tied with two losses and go to tiebreakers after head to head: Div record first.

 

[DavidSeven]

I remember this point last year when everyone had the late season games @Chicago and vs. SF penciled in as losses. Funky stuff is going to happen this season. To expect the season to play out exactly how Vegas would pick the games now is unrealistic. I agree that a loss @ATL or even vs. MN wouldn't signal Armageddon. Neither would be as devastating as the loss to MIA felt last year, and we still made the playoffs (HFA wasn't a realistic goal at the time). Lotta ball to be played, and I refuse to concede those games to NO and SF.

 

[Scottemojo]

Seattle ends the season with two tough division games, the STL game won't be easy.

I am happy that when Pete is asked stuff like this he thinks we should be 9-0.

I don't think Seattle can afford two losses. If we finish with the same record as SF, they get home field most likely.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

If we can beat the 49ers at Candlestick park I don't think the Giants will be a problem.

I think we match up better with SF than we do with almost any other team in the league. Can't extrapolate anything if we do beat them again in the Stick.

 

[Laloosh]

Can put it any way you like with regard to win/loss scenarios and seeding but the thing we really can't afford to do is lose to bad teams. We simply cannot. Puts that much more pressure on our guys to win on the road in SF or here at home against a very dangerous NO team.