Todd McShay's first-round pick predictions 2/15/23

[sdog1981]

In this draft, he has a Colts trade up to number one for a QB. Then has Carter and Anderson gone by 5.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)​

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

I expect Seattle to re-sign or franchise tag Geno Smith, so quarterback shouldn't be atop its draft-day needs. But Poona Ford is a free agent, and Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor are under contract for only one more season, so the defensive line could be a major focus. The Seahawks finished seventh in sacks (45), but their pass rush win rate (33.5%, 28th) and pressure rate (28.9%, 21st) were lackluster. Wilson wins with power, totaling 14 sacks over the past two seasons in Lubbock.

20. Seattle Seahawks​

Brian Branch, S, Alabama

I have the Seahawks sticking with defense after drafting Wilson at No. 5, now addressing the secondary. Yes, Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are both under contract for a few more years, but Branch is versatile enough to play all over, often lining up in the box or over the slot as a nickelback. Plus, Adams hasn't played a full season since 2018 and is returning from a season-ending quadriceps injury suffered in the 2022 opener.

With great instincts and a complete toolbox, Branch did it all last season: 89 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, three sacks, two interceptions, seven pass breakups and nine run stops.

 

[Aircrew]

Branch is a beast and he fits what Carroll likes to do, but it just seems like the secondary isn't as big of a need as DT, LB and/or Center. Who knows, though, I'm not privy to John and Pete's draft board and who else they think will be there on day 2.

 

[AROS]

It's not out of the realm of possibility that a QB-thirsty team trades up to one of the spots before us at 5, leaving Carter or Anderson as a very real possibility. I think if either one is available there you take him. Stay tuned................

 

[nanomoz]

Branch and the Boise State (Skinner, maybe? ) are both the sort of dudes that can instantly add toughness.

If the Hawks aren't targetting a QB (which would surprise me), I wonder if Wilson could be had at 9 after a trade with Carolina.

 

[knownone]

After listening to Lance Zierlein talk about Tyree Wilson, I think there's a good chance Will Anderson falls to us. Wilson doesn't have quite as much polish as Anderson, but his ceiling is higher.

 

[sdog1981]

It's not out of the realm of possibility that a QB-thirsty team trades up to one of the spots before us at 5, leaving Carter or Anderson as a very real possibility. I think if either one is available there you take him. Stay tuned................

I can easily see the first 3 picks being QBs. Teams got worked up over Trey Lance and he had played one season of QB in 2019 and went top 5 in 2021.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

That's the hope.......please please hype up all the QB's media etc.

 

[seatownlowdown]

at #20, branch would be a good investment in our secondary. he's more than just a free safety. get him on the field early on as a nickel/dime guy, have some blitz packages for him. let him play some special teams and pay some dues. let him learn behind diggs before he ultimately takes over.

 

[Chevy]

Branch played mostly as the slot CB and near the line of scrimmage. I don't want a slot CB in the 1st round or undersized SS in the 1st round. He is a projection at FS. At#20 as a projected FS, no thanks.

 

[Rat]

I would honestly be a little underwhelmed with that, although I'm always an advocate of looking for pass rush early.

 

[Rat]

It's not out of the realm of possibility that a QB-thirsty team trades up to one of the spots before us at 5, leaving Carter or Anderson as a very real possibility. I think if either one is available there you take him. Stay tuned................

Reminds me of two years ago when Penei Sewell was easily a top 3 pick any year, but fell into the Lions laps at 7 after some trades above them. I'd be thrilled if one of them landed here, especially Anderson.

 

[seatownlowdown]

Branch played mostly as the slot CB and near the line of scrimmage.

you act like that's a bad thing. slot is legit harder to play than FS, takes unique traits to be great at. and branch EXCELLED in that role. run defense, blitzing, coverage. great tackler, something diggs is not. he has talent and versatility. who knows how pete would use him day 1. at #20 i want a difference maker or a play maker. and he is that. probably a lot better than drafting mazi smith at #20 tbh. and i like mazi smith. just not at #20



right now his game reminds me a little of this guy:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MathTy00.htm

Tyrann Mathieu - MockDraftable

www.mockdraftable.com

we'll see how branch does at the combine. if branch runs sub 4.4, he's certainly gone before #20 anyway

 

[Chevy]

you act like that's a bad thing. slot is legit harder to play than FS, takes unique traits to be great at. and branch EXCELLED in that role. run defense, blitzing, coverage. great tackler, something diggs is not. he has talent and versatility. who knows how pete would use him day 1. at #20 i want a difference maker or a play maker. and he is that. probably a lot better than drafting mazi smith at #20 tbh. and i like mazi smith. just not at #20



right now his game reminds me a little of this guy:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MathTy00.htm

Tyrann Mathieu - MockDraftable

www.mockdraftable.com

we'll see how branch does at the combine. if branch runs sub 4.4, he's certainly gone before #20 anyway

Slot is harder to play than FS, maybe/maybe not...but how many slot CBs have been drafted in the 1st round in the last 10 years? How many Pro Bowl slot CBs have been drafted in the 1st round? And yes, I would not suggest to take any Safety in the 1st round unless they had elite traits (like ET). NT/DT Mazi Smith takes double teams and free up others pass rushers around him, while he still creates pressure. Whereas a slot CB, the defensive coordinator has to find a role for him or sideline him.

 

[seatownlowdown]

Slot is harder to play than FS, maybe/maybe not...but how many slot CBs have been drafted in the 1st round in the last 10 years? How many Pro Bowl slot CBs have been drafted in the 1st round? And yes, I would not suggest to take any Safety in the 1st round unless they had elite traits (like ET). NT/DT Mazi Smith takes double teams and free up others pass rushers around him, while he still creates pressure. Whereas a slot CB, the defensive coordinator has to find a role for him or sideline him.

1) branch primarly seen as a FS. 2) he still has those slot traits. 3) i have yet to see a mock that doesn't have branch in the top 20, let alone fall beyond the top 32 picks. but mazi smith? haven't seen 1 projection before pick 32. 4) mazi smith is fine player, should test well for his size...

but i'm just not sure what your point is. he's a NT. and unless the NT is vea, ngata or casey hampton level NT, they're just not worth top 20 consideration either. mazi projects solely as a run defender, provides nothing in the pass rush. he will play 25-35% of downs max. secondary/pass rush are more important facets in today's game then NT. and also whereas there is a huge drop-off in talent between branch and safety #2 in this draft, siaki ika at or above mazi smith's level at NT position. yes, both ika/smith could be had at 20, whereas branch will likely be long gone. because... he's a top secondary player.

 

[Recon_Hawk]

Am I wrong in thinking that Tyree seems like more of a 4-3 DE than 3-4 DE/DT.

In their last game against the 9ers, Seattle's starting D line was Poona Ford at LDE, Al Woods at NT, and Shelby Harris at RDE. All well over 300 lbs. Tyree is playing at a leaner weight. Maybe he can add some size but I'm not sure he's a starter in this D unless they are ok giving up some weight at the position.

I like Byran Bresee as a better fit.

 

[LickMyNuts]

I’d like to add that many of the top pass rushers come from the first round but not from the top 5.

 

[seatownlowdown]

Am I wrong in thinking that Tyree seems like more of a 4-3 DE than 3-4 DE/DT.

In their last game against the 9ers, Seattle's starting D line was Poona Ford at LDE, Al Woods at NT, and Shelby Harris at RDE. All well over 300 lbs. As much as I like Tyree, I'm not sure he's a starter in this D.

you're right, at 6-6 275, tyree should be a natural 4-3 DE that kicks inside on pass downs. in a 3-4, he projects as an EDGE OLB. but yeah more suited for 4-3 DE.

I like Byran Bresee as a better fit.

absolutely. breese would be a prototype 3-4 DE

 

[Chevy]

1) branch primarly seen as a FS. 2) he still has those slot traits. 3) i have yet to see a mock that doesn't have branch in the top 20, let alone fall beyond the top 32 picks. but mazi smith? haven't seen 1 projection before pick 32. 4) mazi smith is fine player, should test well for his size...

but i'm just not sure what your point is. he's a NT. and unless the NT is vea, ngata or casey hampton level NT, they're just not worth top 20 consideration either. mazi projects solely as a run defender, provides nothing in the pass rush. he will play 25-35% of downs max. secondary/pass rush are more important facets in today's game then NT. and also whereas there is a huge drop-off in talent between branch and safety #2 in this draft, siaki ika at or above mazi smith's level at NT position. yes, both ika/smith could be had at 20, whereas branch will likely be long gone. because... he's a top secondary player.

"primary seen as a FS" although he has rarely played FS. I not saying I don't like him, but I don't value Safety as a 1st round pick over an impact defensive lineman.

You haven't seen Mazi Smith in the 1st round as like you didn't see Will McDonnald other than my mocks drafts up until after the Senior Bowl. We will have to agree to disagree on the importance of an athletic NT on a 3-4 defense and our different evaluation of Mazi.

Again, I like Branch a lot but I don't think Coach Carrol would aggressively use him to get the most out of him. Branch would be his best self with an aggresive defensive coordinator.

 

[seatownlowdown]

@Chevy i think we can just both agree that we need a solid NT (and 3-4 DE) after last season's terrible run defense. mazi smith or siaki ika would certainly help, whether that @ pick #20 or #37 or #52. something needs to be done there.

 

[Chevy]

1) branch primarly seen as a FS. 2) he still has those slot traits. 3) i have yet to see a mock that doesn't have branch in the top 20, let alone fall beyond the top 32 picks. but mazi smith? haven't seen 1 projection before pick 32. 4) mazi smith is fine player, should test well for his size...

but i'm just not sure what your point is. he's a NT. and unless the NT is vea, ngata or casey hampton level NT, they're just not worth top 20 consideration either. mazi projects solely as a run defender, provides nothing in the pass rush. he will play 25-35% of downs max. secondary/pass rush are more important facets in today's game then NT. and also whereas there is a huge drop-off in talent between branch and safety #2 in this draft, siaki ika at or above mazi smith's level at NT position. yes, both ika/smith could be had at 20, whereas branch will likely be long gone. because... he's a top secondary player.

"Seen as a FS" is a projection. He hasn't played full time. It's like saying a college slot WR is "seen as a an outside WR. Very little game tape to show just but projection. I don't uderstand how you don't understand that. "Seen" isn't a given, it's a projection. It's more like he is a slot CB that has FS traits.

You are randomly saying what people think of NTs. Mazi is an incredible athlete for a NT, but you obviously don't know that because you think he is just a run stopper. Ika is horrible against the run if you actually watched film, but again you are just making stuff up to support your case. Ika is a nice pass rusher but bad against the run, unless you like your NTs lying face down on the ground vs the run.